Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | 11 | 11 | 23 | 97 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 3.09 | 2.91 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | 11 | 11 | 23 | 97 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 3.09 | 1.86 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 565 | 141 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.97 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 565 | 141 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 3.21 | 2.95 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 140 | 600 | 134 | 52 | 12 | 96% | 5.6 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 4.13 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 140 | 600 | 134 | 52 | 12 | 96% | 5.6 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 3.21 | 3.41 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 3.5 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 7.71 | 5.55 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 3.5 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 7.71 | 5.67 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 5 levels | 21 | 20 | 86 | 373 | 79 | 30 | 16 | 95% | 4.1 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 4.62 | 4.87 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 5 levels | 21 | 20 | 86 | 373 | 79 | 30 | 16 | 95% | 4.1 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 4.62 | 4.73 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 25 | 150 | 649 | 123 | 30 | 27 | 86% | 5.2 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 4.86 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 25 | 150 | 649 | 123 | 30 | 27 | 86% | 5.2 | 19.0% | 4.6% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 4.86 | 4.40 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 113 | 509 | 124 | 39 | 8 | 75% | 4.0 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 3.18 | +2.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 113 | 509 | 124 | 39 | 8 | 75% | 4.0 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 2.86 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 80 | 345 | 81 | 27 | 8 | 67% | 3.3 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 80 | 345 | 81 | 27 | 8 | 67% | 3.3 | 23.5% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 2.3% | 4.16 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 144 | 607 | 110 | 32 | 19 | 76% | 5.0 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 3.84 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 144 | 607 | 110 | 32 | 19 | 76% | 5.0 | 18.1% | 5.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 3.95 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 | 15 | 84 | 348 | 86 | 22 | 14 | 94% | 5.2 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 4.7% | 3.87 | 4.63 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 50 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 50 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | STL | — | — | 155 | 649 | 136 | 41 | 23 | — | — | 21.0% | 6.3% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | STL | — | — | 76 | 322 | 136 | 41 | 23 | — | — | 42.4% | 12.7% | 29.7% | 7.2% | 8.05 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 298 | 44 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 38 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 33 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 5.35 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 42 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 36 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 29 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 71 | 422 | 1814 | 288 | 111 | 77 | 86% | 5.1 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 4.88 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 859 | 136 | 53 | 36 | 86% | 5.1 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 210 | 180 | 961 | 4124 | 792 | 307 | 124 | 86% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 858 | 165 | 64 | 26 | 86% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bruce Zimmermann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 3.0% | — | 5.04 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 194 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 81 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 75 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 74 |
| Jason Vargas L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 72 |
| Jeff Locke L 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 69 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 65 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.90 | 10.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 137 | 64 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2024 · 5.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.15 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 182 | 62 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 108 | 62 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.56 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 60 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 60 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 60 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.18 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 360 | 59 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.83 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.69 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 333 | 59 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 58 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.79 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 327 | 58 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 58 |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 58 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 1.27 | 4.75 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |