Jordan Montgomery

P Texas Rangers

Age 34 LHP 6'6" / 228 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MLBTEX	32	32	189	3.20	3.34	21.4%	6.2%	4.8
2024	31	MIX2 levels	27	23	125	6.50	4.40	16.1%	8.1%	1.5	K 15.6% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.29
2026	33	MIX3 levels	21	8	50	3.96	2.98	19.9%	3.9%	1.0	K 17.7% · BB 3.9% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	34	MLBTEX	7	7	42	4.47	4.21	17.3%	5.7%	0.6
2028PROJ	35	MLBTEX	6	6	37	4.52	4.55	16.4%	6.2%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs81

K%30

FB Velo10

Form4.15 ERA (proj 4.47) · K 19.2% (proj 17.3%) · BB 5.8% (proj 5.7%) · last 90d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsFrancisley Bueno (age 34) · Orlando Lara (age 34) · Oscar Rivera (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.47

FIP4.21

K%17.3%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	547	132	36	5	96%	5.4	18.3%	7.6%	10.6%	1.4%	2.95	3.27	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	134	547	132	36	5	96%	5.4	24.1%	6.6%	17.6%	0.9%	2.95	2.42	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	139	582	134	45	5	100%	5.6	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.0%	2.13	3.11	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	139	582	134	45	5	100%	5.6	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	0.9%	2.13	2.61	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	163	678	155	52	21	100%	5.3	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.0%	3.75	3.89	+3.0
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	163	678	155	52	21	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	3.1%	3.75	3.83	+3.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	6	6	27	116	23	12	3	100%	4.6	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	2.4%	3.62	4.07	+0.4
2018	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	6	6	27	116	23	12	3	100%	4.6	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	2.6%	3.62	4.16	+0.4
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	3	8	33	10	0	1	75%	1.9	30.3%	0.0%	30.3%	3.0%	3.52	2.20	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	3	8	33	10	0	1	75%	1.9	30.3%	0.0%	30.3%	3.0%	3.52	2.19	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	10	10	44	193	47	9	7	100%	4.4	24.4%	4.7%	19.7%	3.4%	5.11	3.50	+1.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	10	10	44	193	47	9	7	100%	4.4	24.4%	4.7%	19.7%	3.6%	5.11	3.65	+0.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	30	157	661	162	51	19	100%	5.2	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.49	+3.7
2021	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	30	157	661	162	51	19	100%	5.2	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.83	3.58	+3.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	178	724	158	36	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	5.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.48	3.60	+3.9
2022	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	178	724	158	36	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	5.0%	16.9%	2.9%	3.48	3.46	+4.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	189	777	166	48	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	2.2%	3.20	3.26	+5.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	189	777	166	48	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.34	+4.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	15.6%	7.7%	7.9%	2.8%	6.50	4.29	+1.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	15.6%	7.7%	7.9%	2.8%	6.50	4.29	+1.6
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	16.1%	8.1%	8.1%	2.8%	6.50	4.40	+1.5
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	50	206	41	8	4	38%	2.4	17.7%	3.9%	13.7%	2.0%	3.96	3.20	+0.8
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	50	206	41	8	4	38%	2.4	17.7%	3.9%	13.7%	2.0%	3.96	3.20	+0.8
2026	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	8	50	206	41	8	4	38%	2.4	19.9%	3.9%	16.0%	1.9%	3.96	2.98	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			179	161	898	3775	808	253	107	90%	5.0	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	2.8%	4.03	3.69	+18.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	TEX	7	7	42	177	31	10	5	100%	6.0	17.3%	5.7%	11.7%	2.7%	4.47	4.21	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	6	6	37	157	26	10	5	100%	6.2	16.4%	6.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.55	+0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	37	156	26	10	5	100%	6.2	16.4%	6.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.55	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	167	935	3932	834	263	112	90%	5.1	21.2%	6.7%	14.5%	2.8%	4.05	3.72	+19.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	36	200	841	178	56	24	90%	5.0	21.2%	6.7%	14.5%	2.8%	4.05	3.72	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		243	224	1215	5088	1053	352	121	92%	5.0	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.70	3.54	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	838	173	58	20	92%	5.0	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.70	3.54	+4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 21 IPFIP 2.55 → 2.79 (+0.24)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.48%	—	×0.860	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.26%	—	×0.900	2.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 8 IPFIP 5.59 → 5.64 (+0.05)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×0.900	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷1.124	×1.100	5.02%

Result: FIP 5.59 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATrenton Thunder · 102 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.47 (+0.57)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.15%	—	×0.810	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.100	9.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.015	×1.200	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 37 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.02 (+0.30)K% 25.7% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.69%	—	×0.880	22.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.050	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Tampa Yankees · 91 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.58 (+0.82)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.70%	—	×0.770	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷0.832	×1.250	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ACharleston RiverDogs · 44 IPFIP 1.63 → 2.60 (+0.97)K% 31.4% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.740	23.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×1.180	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷0.937	×1.300	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 1.63 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.55	16.4%	10.1%	37	+0.34	—	—	—
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	2.43	188	76
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	63
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	61
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	60
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	59
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	58
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	58
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.00	625	57
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	57
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	188	56
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	55
Jorge Castillo L 2016 · 4.94 FIP	34	SP	4.94	13.0%	4.6%	4.3%	.246	4.93	16.8%	9.2%	179	-0.01	4.50	408	49
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	33
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	33
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	33
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	32
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	32
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	32
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	32
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	98	21.0%	6.7%	1.10	4.07
Ron Robinson ('84-'92, 8 WAR*)	4.0	100	18.0%*	7.3%*	0.97*	3.99*
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72