Jordan Montgomery
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 33
LHP
6'6" / 228 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.35
FIP4.30
xFIP4.67
SIERA4.91
K%18.7%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%11.0%
IP144
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†4545
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+0.6 (2%)
SI (31%)
CU (31%)
CH-7.2 (19%)
FB-13.3 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 25 | 24 | 134 | 547 | 132 | 36 | 5 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 1.4% | 2.95 | 3.29 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 25 | 139 | 582 | 134 | 45 | 5 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 3.12 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 31 | 163 | 678 | 155 | 52 | 21 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.89 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 6 | 6 | 27 | 116 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 10 | 10 | 44 | 193 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 24.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 3.11 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 30 | 157 | 661 | 162 | 51 | 19 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.59 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 178 | 724 | 158 | 36 | 21 | 21.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.40 | +3.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 189 | 777 | 166 | 48 | 18 | 21.4% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 3.20 | 3.09 | +4.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27 | 23 | 125 | 571 | 92 | 46 | 16 | 15.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 6.50 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 18.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 87 | 39 | 14 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 73 | 36 | 12 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 61 | 32 | 11 | 15.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 56 | 26 | 10 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 222 | 216 | 1165 | 4882 | 1017 | 344 | 111 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 3.68 | 3.49 | +23.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 838 | 175 | 59 | 19 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 3.68 | 3.49 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Montgomery (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 18.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 313 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 64 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 64 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 63 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 62 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 60 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 60 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 60 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 60 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 59 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 59 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 58 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 58 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 58 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 57 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 57 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.01 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 49 | -0.22 | 1.69 | 277 | 56 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.73 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .443 | 4.86 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 154 | 56 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 55 |
| Edward Paredes L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.13 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 130 | 55 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 54 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 8.843 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $1M | $2M | +$0.4M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | VESTING OPT | $2025.0M / $0.0M buyout | — |
| 2028 | PLAYER OPT | $2025.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |