Jordan Montgomery

Jordan Montgomery P Round Rock Express

Age 33 LHP 6'6" / 228 lbs AAA Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA3.94

FIP3.98

K%17.5%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.3

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p3119.4%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

SL+0.6 (2%)

SI (31%)

CU (31%)

CH-7.2 (19%)

FB-13.3 (48%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.843 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
Totals		$0.1M		$0.3M	+$0.2M

Options · projected decision
2027	VESTING OPT	$1.2M / $0.0M buyout	—
2028	PLAYER OPT	$1.2M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	547	132	36	5	96%	5.4	18.3%	7.6%	10.6%	1.4%	2.95	3.27	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	134	547	132	36	5	96%	5.4	24.1%	6.6%	17.6%	0.9%	2.95	2.42	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	139	582	134	45	5	100%	5.6	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.0%	2.13	3.11	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	139	582	134	45	5	100%	5.6	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	0.9%	2.13	2.61	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	163	678	155	52	21	100%	5.3	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.0%	3.75	3.89	+2.0
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	163	678	155	52	21	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	3.1%	3.75	3.83	+2.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	6	6	27	116	23	12	3	100%	4.6	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	2.4%	3.62	4.07	+0.3
2018	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	6	6	27	116	23	12	3	100%	4.6	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	2.6%	3.62	4.16	+0.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	3	8	33	10	0	1	75%	1.9	30.3%	0.0%	30.3%	3.0%	3.52	2.20	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	3	8	33	10	0	1	75%	1.9	30.3%	0.0%	30.3%	3.0%	3.52	2.19	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	10	10	44	193	47	9	7	100%	4.4	24.4%	4.7%	19.7%	3.4%	5.11	3.50	+0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	10	10	44	193	47	9	7	100%	4.4	24.4%	4.7%	19.7%	3.6%	5.11	3.65	+0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	30	157	661	162	51	19	100%	5.2	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.49	+2.7
2021	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	30	157	661	162	51	19	100%	5.2	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.83	3.58	+2.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	178	724	158	36	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	5.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.48	3.60	+2.8
2022	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	178	724	158	36	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	5.0%	16.9%	2.9%	3.48	3.46	+3.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	189	777	166	48	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	2.2%	3.20	3.26	+3.8
2023	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	189	777	166	48	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	2.2%	3.20	3.26	+3.8
2023	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	189	777	166	48	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.34	+3.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	15.6%	7.7%	7.9%	2.8%	6.50	4.29	+0.9
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	15.6%	7.7%	7.9%	2.8%	6.50	4.29	+0.9
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	125	571	92	46	16	85%	4.6	16.1%	8.1%	8.1%	2.8%	6.50	4.40	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			174	161	889	3743	802	252	107	93%	5.1	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.05	3.71	+12.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	16	8	41	174	35	7	4	50%	2.6	17.1%	4.1%	13.1%	2.4%	4.39	3.47	+0.7
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	16	8	41	174	35	7	4	50%	2.6	17.1%	4.1%	13.1%	2.4%	4.39	3.47	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AA RAW	TEX	2	2	3	10	4	0	0	100%	1.5	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	TEX	6	6	21	92	17	3	1	100%	3.5	18.5%	3.3%	15.2%	1.1%	4.29	2.55	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	TEX	8	0	17	72	14	4	3	0%	2.1	19.4%	5.6%	13.9%	4.2%	5.29	4.45	+0.0
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	TEX	8	0	17	72	14	4	3	0%	2.1	19.4%	5.6%	13.9%	4.2%	5.29	4.45	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB MLE	TEX	2	2	12	51	9	3	1	100%	6.0	17.5%	6.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.94	3.98	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	12	51	9	3	1	100%	6.0	17.5%	6.7%	10.7%	2.9%	4.05	4.09	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	53	225	44	10	5	—	—	19.5%	4.6%	14.9%	2.4%	4.29	3.59	+0.6
FULL	33	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	29	122	44	10	5	—	—	35.8%	8.5%	27.3%	4.5%	7.89	3.61	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	129	546	93	41	18	100%	5.9	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.76	+0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	116	490	79	39	17	100%	6.1	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	3.6%	4.90	5.09	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	129	545	93	41	19	100%	5.9	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.89	+0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	116	490	79	39	19	100%	6.1	16.1%	8.0%	8.1%	3.8%	5.05	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	204	1146	4829	983	336	146	94%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.23	3.92	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	843	172	59	25	94%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.23	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		238	224	1206	5056	1046	351	121	94%	5.1	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.71	3.55	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	838	174	58	20	94%	5.1	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	2.4%	3.71	3.55	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	17.6%	7.3%	2.7%	—	4.92	16.6%	8.9%	245	+0.49	—	—	—
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	73
Drew Smyly L 2022 · 4.16 FIP	33	SP	4.16	20.4%	5.8%	3.7%	.271	4.66	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.50	2.00	840	68
J.A. Happ L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.05	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.21	3.37	1,053	65
Jon Lester L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	23.6%	7.5%	3.5%	.306	4.30	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.81	1,144	65
Cole Hamels L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	17.1%	8.5%	2.8%	.244	4.05	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.23	3.21	893	64
Mike Minor L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.10	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.80	2.43	807	62
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	62
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	61
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	61
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	61
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	60
Gio Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.91	22.2%	9.8%	32	+1.12	2.90	864	60
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	60
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	59
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	59
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	59
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	58
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	58
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	57
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	129	17.0%	7.6%	1.22	4.62
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37