Matt Moore — OGILVIE

Matt Moore P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 37 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 121

ERA4.39

FIP4.80

K%21.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

FB+4.2 (50%)

CU (18%)

CT-2.0 (1%)

CH-5.1 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	114	490	113	38	16	100%	5.2	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	3.5%	4.41	4.17	+1.0
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	114	490	113	38	16	100%	5.2	23.1%	7.8%	15.3%	3.3%	4.41	3.94	+1.3
2016	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	33	33	198	838	178	71	25	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.08	4.15	+1.8
2016	27	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	33	33	198	838	178	71	25	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.08	4.02	+2.1
2017	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	32	31	174	790	148	64	27	97%	5.4	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.7%	5.52	4.57	+0.7
2017	28	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	32	31	174	790	148	64	27	97%	5.4	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.4%	5.52	4.52	+0.8
2018	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	39	12	102	471	86	40	19	31%	2.6	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	3.9%	6.79	4.76	-0.3
2018	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	39	12	102	471	86	40	19	31%	2.6	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	4.0%	6.79	5.01	-0.5
2019	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	2	2	10	33	9	1	0	100%	5.0	27.3%	3.0%	24.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.18	+0.5
2019	30	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	2	2	10	33	9	1	0	100%	5.0	27.3%	3.0%	24.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	+0.4
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	18	92	421	85	45	20	62%	3.2	19.6%	10.8%	8.7%	4.7%	5.95	5.39	-0.5
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	18	92	421	85	45	20	62%	3.2	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	4.8%	5.95	5.54	-0.7
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	79	321	90	37	3	0%	1.2	27.3%	11.8%	15.5%	0.9%	1.82	2.80	+1.7
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	79	321	90	37	3	0%	1.2	28.0%	11.5%	16.5%	0.9%	1.82	2.72	+1.7
2023	34	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	50	0	53	218	60	12	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.5%	22.0%	3.4%	2.56	3.33	+0.8
2023	34	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	50	0	53	218	60	12	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.5%	22.0%	3.4%	2.56	3.33	+0.8
2023	34	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	50	0	53	218	60	12	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.5%	22.0%	3.2%	2.56	3.23	+0.8
2024	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	51	0	48	210	41	24	11	0%	0.9	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	5.1%	5.03	5.72	-0.7
2024	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	51	0	48	210	41	24	11	0%	0.9	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	5.1%	5.03	5.72	-0.7
2024	35	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	51	0	48	210	41	24	11	0%	0.9	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	5.2%	5.03	5.85	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			306	103	796	3476	714	304	116	34%	2.6	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.3%	4.76	4.35	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	16	2	18	82	25	9	2	12%	1.1	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.42	4.16	—
YTD	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	16	2	18	82	25	9	2	12%	1.1	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.42	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	37	ROK RAW	KC	2	2	3	10	4	0	0	100%	1.5	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
2026	37	AAA RAW	KC	14	0	15	72	21	9	2	0%	1.1	29.2%	12.5%	16.7%	2.8%	5.28	3.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	KC	27	0	28	119	24	12	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	4.0%	4.90	5.23	-0.2
2027	38	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	24	12	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.7%	4.74	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	103	824	3595	738	316	120	31%	2.5	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.76	4.32	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		81	25	200	873	179	77	29	31%	2.5	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.76	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		339	120	890	3874	819	343	135	35%	2.6	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.5%	4.63	4.35	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	27	200	871	184	77	30	35%	2.6	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.5%	4.63	4.35	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Moore (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.7%	9.6%	3.5%	—	5.23	20.5%	10.2%	28	+0.43	—	—	—
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	53
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	53
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	48
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	48
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	45
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	36
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	36
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	36
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	33
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	33
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	32
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	31
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	31
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	30
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	29
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	29
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	29
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	29
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	37	SU	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	29
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	28

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.1%	9.9%	1.45	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78