Patrick Corbin
PosP
B/TL/L
Born1989-07-19
Age (2026)37
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 102 | 430 | 89 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 15.3% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.29 | +2.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 102 | 430 | 89 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 5.6% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.34 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 36 | 24 | 156 | 701 | 131 | 64 | 24 | 67% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 5.15 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 36 | 24 | 156 | 701 | 131 | 64 | 24 | 67% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.15 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 32 | 190 | 826 | 178 | 53 | 26 | 97% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 3.75 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 32 | 190 | 826 | 178 | 53 | 26 | 97% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 3.84 | +3.5 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 200 | 800 | 246 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.8% | 5.6% | 25.1% | 1.8% | 3.15 | 2.20 | +7.5 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 200 | 800 | 246 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.8% | 5.6% | 25.1% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 2.29 | +7.3 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 202 | 835 | 238 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 20.4% | 2.9% | 3.25 | 3.30 | +5.0 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 202 | 835 | 238 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 20.4% | 2.9% | 3.25 | 3.30 | +5.0 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 11 | 11 | 66 | 295 | 60 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 11 | 11 | 66 | 295 | 60 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 172 | 751 | 143 | 58 | 37 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 5.82 | 5.17 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 172 | 751 | 143 | 58 | 37 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 5.82 | 5.25 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 153 | 713 | 128 | 48 | 27 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 6.31 | 4.52 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 153 | 713 | 128 | 48 | 27 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 6.31 | 4.67 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 32 | 32 | 180 | 790 | 124 | 57 | 33 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 5.20 | 4.98 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 32 | 32 | 180 | 790 | 124 | 57 | 33 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 5.20 | 5.06 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 32 | 32 | 175 | 764 | 139 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.62 | 4.24 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 32 | 32 | 175 | 764 | 139 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.62 | 4.28 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 30 | 155 | 663 | 131 | 50 | 21 | 97% | 5.0 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.08 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 30 | 155 | 663 | 131 | 50 | 21 | 97% | 5.0 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.14 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 18 | 16 | 81 | 358 | 68 | 25 | 11 | 89% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 45 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 37 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 142 | 616 | 114 | 44 | 19 | — | — | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 37 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 137 | 580 | 114 | 44 | 19 | — | — | 19.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.24 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 83 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 66 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 88 | 369 | 53 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.73 | 5.99 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 82 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 66 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 53 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.73 | 5.99 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 399 | 383 | 2177 | 9389 | 1902 | 685 | 324 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.20 | +30.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 862 | 175 | 63 | 30 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 341 | 325 | 1831 | 7926 | 1669 | 561 | 260 | 95% | 5.4 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.02 | +29.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 866 | 182 | 61 | 28 | 95% | 5.4 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Corbin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.51 | 15.5% | 6.9% | 307 | +0.83 | — | — | — |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 40 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 40 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 39 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 39 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.19 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .273 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 260 | +0.15 | 3.75 | 756 | 38 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 37 |
| Barry Zito L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 37 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 35 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.24 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.57 | 444 | 34 |
| Jason Lane L 2027 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 34 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 34 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 33 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 32 |
| Mark Buehrle L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.08 | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 199 | 30 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 29 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 27 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 25 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 21 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 21 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.56 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.81 | 26.8% | 19.3% | 230 | +0.25 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 21 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 111 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 1.48 | 5.17 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |