Patrick Corbin

PosP

B/TL/L

Born1989-07-19

Age (2026)37

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	102	430	89	24	10	100%	5.1	20.6%	5.3%	15.3%	2.4%	3.79	3.34	+2.0
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	102	430	89	24	10	100%	5.1	20.7%	5.6%	15.1%	2.3%	3.79	3.34	+2.0
2016	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	36	24	156	701	131	64	24	67%	4.3	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	3.4%	5.15	4.54	+0.7
2016	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	36	24	156	701	131	64	24	67%	4.3	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	3.4%	5.15	4.65	+0.4
2017	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	32	190	826	178	53	26	97%	5.7	21.5%	6.4%	15.1%	3.1%	4.03	3.80	+2.5
2017	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	32	190	826	178	53	26	97%	5.7	21.5%	6.4%	15.1%	3.1%	4.03	3.84	+2.4
2018	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	800	246	45	15	100%	6.1	30.8%	5.6%	25.1%	2.0%	3.15	2.30	+6.8
2018	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	800	246	45	15	100%	6.1	30.8%	5.6%	25.1%	1.9%	3.15	2.29	+6.9
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	202	835	238	68	24	100%	6.1	28.5%	8.1%	20.4%	2.9%	3.25	3.30	+4.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	33	202	835	238	68	24	100%	6.1	28.5%	8.1%	20.4%	2.9%	3.25	3.30	+4.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	11	11	66	295	60	17	10	100%	6.0	20.3%	5.8%	14.6%	3.4%	4.66	3.97	+0.7
2020	31	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	11	11	66	295	60	17	10	100%	6.0	20.3%	5.8%	14.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.03	+0.7
2021	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	31	31	172	751	143	58	37	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.7%	11.3%	4.9%	5.82	5.17	-0.5
2021	32	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	31	31	172	751	143	58	37	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.7%	11.3%	4.9%	5.82	5.25	-0.7
2022	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	31	31	153	713	128	48	27	100%	4.9	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.8%	6.31	4.52	+0.7
2022	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	31	31	153	713	128	48	27	100%	4.9	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.8%	6.31	4.67	+0.4
2023	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	180	790	124	57	33	100%	5.6	15.7%	7.2%	8.5%	4.2%	5.20	4.98	-0.2
2023	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	180	790	124	57	33	100%	5.6	15.7%	7.2%	8.5%	4.2%	5.20	4.98	-0.2
2023	34	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	180	790	124	57	33	100%	5.6	15.7%	7.2%	8.5%	4.2%	5.20	5.06	-0.3
2024	35	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	175	764	139	53	25	100%	5.5	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	3.3%	5.62	4.24	+1.4
2024	35	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	175	764	139	53	25	100%	5.5	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	3.3%	5.62	4.24	+1.4
2024	35	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	175	764	139	53	25	100%	5.5	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	3.3%	5.62	4.28	+1.3
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	31	30	155	663	131	50	21	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.00	+1.7
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	31	30	155	663	131	50	21	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.00	+1.7
2025	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	31	30	155	663	131	50	21	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.2%	3.2%	4.40	4.14	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			338	320	1812	7855	1659	555	263	95%	5.4	21.1%	7.1%	14.1%	3.3%	4.67	4.07	+17.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	20	16	85	380	72	26	12	80%	4.2	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.3%	5.19	4.33	+0.6
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	20	16	85	380	72	26	12	80%	4.2	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.3%	5.19	4.33	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	37	A RAW	TOR	1	1	5	20	9	1	0	100%	5.0	45.0%	5.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2026	37	MLB RAW	TOR	19	15	80	360	63	25	12	79%	4.2	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.3%	5.51	4.33	+0.5
SO FAR	37	MLB RAW	TOR	19	15	80	360	63	25	12	79%	4.2	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.3%	5.51	4.33	+0.5
ROS	37	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.43	4.27	—
ROS	37	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.43	4.27	—
2026 TOT	37	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	85	380	72	26	12	—	—	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	3.2%	5.19	4.33	+0.4
FULL	37	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	80	338	72	26	12	—	—	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	3.6%	5.51	4.22	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	118	499	83	39	18	100%	5.9	16.6%	7.9%	8.7%	3.7%	5.00	5.11	-0.3
2028	39	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	102	429	66	37	18	100%	6.0	15.4%	8.6%	6.8%	4.1%	5.32	5.54	-0.7
2027	38	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	118	498	83	39	18	100%	5.9	16.6%	7.9%	8.7%	3.7%	5.00	5.11	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	102	431	66	37	18	100%	6.0	15.4%	8.6%	6.8%	4.1%	5.32	5.54	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		375	357	2032	8783	1808	631	299	95%	5.4	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.14	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	864	178	62	29	95%	5.4	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		343	325	1834	7948	1673	562	264	95%	5.3	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.66	4.04	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	867	182	61	29	95%	5.3	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.66	4.04	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Corbin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	18.0%	7.5%	3.2%	—	5.31	16.0%	7.8%	220	+0.66	—	—	—
CC Sabathia L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP	4.20	19.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.273	4.35	21.8%	13.9%	260	+0.15	3.76	756	64
J.A. Happ L 2020 · 4.36 FIP	37	SP	4.36	21.4%	7.7%	3.8%	.221	5.11	18.2%	11.0%	152	+0.75	3.37	1,053	42
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	40
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	39
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	39
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	39
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	36
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	36
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	36
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	35
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	35
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	35
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	35
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	32
James Shields R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	36	SP	4.85	17.7%	9.0%	3.8%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	720	32
Mark Buehrle L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	11.0%	3.5%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	199	30
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	28
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	27
Adam Wainwright R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	37	SP	4.08	20.5%	7.7%	3.2%	.310	3.65	19.6%	13.5%	464	-0.43	2.03	1,127	27
Horacio Ramirez L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	37	SP	4.00	8.6%	4.5%	1.9%	.306	4.65	5.7%	-0.3%	35	+0.65	3.39	199	25

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	115	16.7%	8.0%	1.40	5.02
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20

Patrick Corbin

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps