Sam Weatherly
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%9.0%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 15 | 15 | 69 | 296 | 96 | 32 | 7 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.04 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 5 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 23 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 40 | 0 | 53 | 214 | 69 | 23 | 3 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 2.22 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 39 | 0 | 48 | 236 | 66 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 20.5% | 4.3% | 8.06 | 6.13 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 4 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 23.0% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 43 | 191 | 43 | 28 | 7 | 22.4% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 6.26 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 23.0% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | COL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 31 | 21 | 5 | 22.2% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 5.38 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 21.9% | 15.3% | 3.6% | 5.47 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | COL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 21.6% | 15.6% | 3.7% | 5.57 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | COL | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 21.2% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 5.69 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 18 | 186 | 825 | 199 | 117 | 26 | 24.2% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.60 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 19 | 200 | 887 | 214 | 126 | 28 | 24.2% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.60 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Weatherly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 23.0% | 16.3% | 3.3% | — | 5.30 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 112 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 83 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.94 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 4.6% | .282 | 3.10 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 81 | -2.84 | 3.04 | 194 | 82 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 81 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 134 | 80 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2025 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.63 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 3.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 144 | 79 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 79 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2024 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.77 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 107 | 78 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 4.3% | .260 | 5.70 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.20 | 3.60 | 132 | 77 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.05 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 4.3% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 119 | 76 |
| Sam Freeman L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 76 |
| Brian Marconi L 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 75 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 75 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 75 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 264 | 74 |
| Davis Schwab L 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.66 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.5% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 74 |
| Cody Reed L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.24 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 3.9% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 572 | 74 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.75 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 178 | 74 |
| Cody Beckman L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.9% | 3.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 189 | 74 |
| Nick Lee L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.