Sam Weatherly

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	40	0	53	2.22	2.53	32.2%	10.7%	—	K 21.9% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.14
2025	26	AACOL	39	0	48	8.06	5.81	28.0%	18.6%	—	K 22.7% · BB 20.5% · FIP 6.01
2026	27	AACOL	38	9	54	8.72	6.79	24.2%	13.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 14.6% · FIP 7.53
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	1	0	1	6.28	6.28	20.8%	17.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCOL	14	0	15	6.16	6.21	20.8%	17.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCOL	19	0	20	6.16	6.25	20.6%	17.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBraulio Lara (age 28) · Will Lamb (age 26) · Trey Jeans (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136144vR 152

ERA6.28

FIP6.28

K%20.8%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	15	15	69	296	96	32	7	100%	4.6	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.83	4.07	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	15	15	69	296	96	32	7	100%	4.6	32.4%	10.8%	21.6%	2.4%	4.83	3.03	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	12	52	23	2	2	60%	2.3	44.2%	3.8%	40.4%	3.8%	3.86	1.96	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	12	52	23	2	2	60%	2.3	44.2%	3.8%	40.4%	3.8%	3.86	1.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	2.22	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	2.22	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	32.2%	10.7%	21.5%	1.4%	2.22	2.53	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	22.7%	20.5%	2.1%	4.1%	8.06	6.01	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	22.7%	20.5%	2.1%	4.1%	8.06	6.01	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	28.0%	18.6%	9.3%	4.2%	8.06	5.81	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	9	54	264	64	35	17	24%	1.4	19.6%	14.6%	5.1%	7.7%	8.72	7.53	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	9	54	264	64	35	17	24%	1.4	19.6%	14.6%	5.1%	7.7%	8.72	7.53	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	38	9	54	264	64	35	17	24%	1.4	24.2%	13.3%	11.0%	6.4%	8.72	6.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	17.9%	2.9%	4.2%	6.28	6.28	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	46	0	49	205	43	35	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	17.3%	3.5%	4.2%	6.16	6.21	-0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	38	0	39	166	34	28	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	17.0%	3.7%	4.3%	6.16	6.25	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	0	15	63	13	11	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	17.3%	3.5%	4.2%	6.16	6.21	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	19	0	20	84	17	14	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	17.0%	3.7%	4.3%	6.16	6.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	35	150	31	26	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	17.1%	3.6%	4.3%	6.16	5.85	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	147	34	0%	1.1	20.7%	17.1%	3.6%	4.3%	6.16	5.85	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		137	27	235	1062	246	155	44	20%	1.7	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.74	5.27	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	23	200	904	210	132	38	20%	1.7	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.74	5.27	-3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 54 IPFIP 6.27 → 7.53 (+1.26)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.810	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.26%	—	×1.100	14.58%
HR / BF /BF	6.44%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.27 → 7.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 48 IPFIP 5.43 → 6.01 (+0.58)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.97%	—	×0.810	22.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.64%	—	×1.100	20.51%
HR / BF /BF	4.24%	÷1.255	×1.200	4.05%

Result: FIP 5.43 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 41 IPFIP 2.95 → 4.14 (+1.19)K% 29.7% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.65%	—	×0.740	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×1.180	13.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.002	×1.300	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 12 IPFIP 0.69 → 1.70 (+1.01)K% 42.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.770	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.086	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 0.69 → 1.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rockies · 8 IPFIP 0.54 → 2.98 (+2.44)K% 54.5% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.55%	—	×0.680	37.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.250	3.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.918	×1.400	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 0.54 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 69 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.07 (+1.05)K% 32.4% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.43%	—	×0.740	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.180	12.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.218	×1.300	2.52%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Weatherly (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.28	20.8%	17.9%	4.2%	—	6.23	20.7%	3.6%	88	-0.05	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	76
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	72
Matt Thornton L 2005 · 5.92 FIP	28	SU	5.92	21.8%	15.3%	5.0%	.270	2.98	24.4%	17.2%	178	-2.94	1.71	663	72
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	71
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	69
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.49	24.8%	15.2%	157	-2.05	2.76	314	68
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	67
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	67
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	66
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	66
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	66
Ryan Williamson L 2021 · 7.47 FIP	26	SU	7.47	20.0%	16.7%	7.2%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	123	66
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	65
Sammy Solís L 2017 · 5.93 FIP	28	SU	5.93	20.9%	11.5%	5.7%	.250	4.27	25.4%	16.0%	62	-1.66	2.51	190	65
Taylor Lehman L 2024 · 5.94 FIP	28	SU	5.94	21.1%	17.3%	4.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	171	64
Daniel Zamora L 2021 · 5.17 FIP	28	SU	5.17	23.6%	12.5%	4.5%	.357	3.74	21.5%	9.9%	92	-1.43	2.15	310	63
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	63
R.C. Orlan L 2019 · 6.15 FIP	28	SU	6.15	13.8%	19.5%	3.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	1.71	206	63
Jimmy Robbins L 2024 · 5.73 FIP	26	SU	5.73	19.6%	15.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	176	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	20.8%	17.5%	1.63	6.21
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*