Sam Weatherly — OGILVIE

Sam Weatherly P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%22.6%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	15	15	69	296	96	32	7	100%	4.6	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.83	4.07	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	15	15	69	296	96	32	7	100%	4.6	32.4%	10.8%	21.6%	2.4%	4.83	3.03	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	12	52	23	2	2	60%	2.3	44.2%	3.8%	40.4%	3.8%	3.86	1.96	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	12	52	23	2	2	60%	2.3	44.2%	3.8%	40.4%	3.8%	3.86	1.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	2.22	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	2.22	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	214	69	23	3	0%	1.3	32.2%	10.7%	21.5%	1.4%	2.22	2.53	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	22.7%	20.5%	2.1%	4.1%	8.06	6.01	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	22.7%	20.5%	2.1%	4.1%	8.06	6.01	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	39	0	48	236	66	44	10	0%	1.2	28.0%	18.6%	9.3%	4.2%	8.06	5.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	37	8	51	251	61	34	17	22%	1.4	19.7%	14.9%	4.8%	8.1%	9.00	7.79	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	37	8	51	251	61	34	17	22%	1.4	19.7%	14.9%	4.8%	8.1%	9.00	7.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	COL	37	8	51	251	61	34	17	22%	1.4	24.3%	13.5%	10.8%	6.8%	9.00	6.48	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	COL	5	0	5	23	5	5	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	19.9%	2.8%	3.2%	5.85	5.85	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	56	274	66	39	18	—	—	24.2%	14.1%	10.1%	6.5%	8.70	7.60	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	58	244	55	46	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	18.9%	3.6%	3.3%	5.74	5.78	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	52	0	55	233	52	43	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.4%	4.0%	3.4%	5.73	5.80	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	21	18	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	18.9%	3.6%	3.3%	5.74	5.78	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	31	131	29	24	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	18.4%	4.0%	3.4%	5.73	5.80	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	50	41	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	18.6%	3.8%	3.4%	5.73	5.41	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	156	27	0%	1.1	22.5%	18.6%	3.8%	3.4%	5.73	5.41	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		136	26	232	1049	244	153	44	19%	1.7	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.77	5.31	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	22	200	903	210	132	38	19%	1.7	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.77	5.31	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Weatherly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	22.6%	19.9%	3.2%	—	5.79	22.5%	3.8%	113	-0.06	—	—	—
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	78
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	78
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	76
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	76
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	74
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	74
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	74
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	74
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	74
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	73
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	72
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	72
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	72
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.25	23.2%	9.2%	137	-0.74	3.98	288	71
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	71
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	71
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.5%	19.1%	1.28	5.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99