Dalton Rogers
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.9
WAR
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 172 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%9.8%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 23 | 23 | 97 | 422 | 140 | 61 | 7 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 4.28 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 19 | 83 | 387 | 89 | 50 | 4 | 17.7% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 5.12 | 4.17 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 16 | 105 | 447 | 129 | 57 | 4 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.0% | 3.09 | 3.48 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 93 | 52 | 9 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 101 | 430 | 95 | 55 | 9 | 22.0% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 100 | 54 | 10 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 103 | 54 | 11 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 53 | 11 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 100 | 52 | 11 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 96 | 51 | 11 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 92 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 87 | 48 | 11 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 76 | 45 | 10 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 71 | 43 | 10 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 71 | 39 | 10 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 65 | 37 | 10 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 59 | 290 | 1283 | 284 | 196 | 18 | 22.1% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 4.25 | 3.96 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 41 | 200 | 885 | 196 | 135 | 12 | 22.1% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 4.25 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 2.2% | — | 4.37 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 320 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 85 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.69 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.21 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.52 | 3.69 | 269 | 85 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 85 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.85 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 191 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 83 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.03 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.34 | 3.86 | 176 | 81 |
| Nick Sando L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 81 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.31 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .302 | 5.11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 221 | +0.80 | 3.60 | 434 | 81 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 81 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 81 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.30 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 116 | -2.08 | 2.32 | 304 | 79 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 79 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 79 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 79 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 79 |
| Rafe Schlesinger L 2023 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 0.8% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 104 | 79 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 79 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.91 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.28 | 3.91 | 383 | 78 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.78 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.22 | 2.03 | 402 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $8M | $39M | +$31M | ||