Dalton Rogers

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 LHP 5'11" / 172 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+BOS	21	19	83	5.12	3.39	23.0%	12.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.17
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	16	105	3.09	2.77	28.9%	12.8%	—	K 23.1% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.47
2026	25	MIX2 levels	21	17	81	5.64	5.58	21.4%	16.0%	—	K 16.9% · BB 17.9% · FIP 6.45
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	1	1	2	5.64	5.64	19.2%	16.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	6	6	35	5.53	5.54	19.5%	15.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	8	8	47	5.49	5.53	19.5%	15.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBlair Walters (age 26) · Scott DeCecco (age 24) · Justin Marks (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%19.2%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	25.3%	16.7%	8.6%	2.2%	4.84	4.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	33.2%	14.5%	18.7%	1.7%	4.84	3.04	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	1.0%	5.12	3.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	28.9%	12.8%	16.1%	0.9%	3.09	2.77	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	21.4%	16.0%	5.3%	3.7%	5.64	5.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.2%	16.7%	2.5%	3.1%	5.64	5.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	391	76	62	12	100%	6.2	19.5%	15.8%	3.6%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	79	334	65	51	11	100%	6.1	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	301	59	46	10	100%	6.0	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	272	52	42	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	3.5%	5.64	5.74	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	29	23	5	100%	5.8	19.5%	15.8%	3.6%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	47	198	39	31	6	100%	5.9	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	50	211	41	32	7	100%	6.2	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	50	211	40	32	7	100%	6.2	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	3.5%	5.64	5.74	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	183	772	150	119	25	100%	6.1	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.55	5.23	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	130	27	100%	6.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.55	5.23	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		90	75	368	1639	345	260	36	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	892	188	142	19	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 80 IPFIP 5.49 → 6.45 (+0.96)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.810	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.30%	—	×1.100	17.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.49 → 6.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 84 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.49 (+0.65)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.810	22.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.02%	—	×1.100	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.119	×1.200	0.89%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 21 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.39 (+0.93)K% 32.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.56%	—	×0.770	25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.150	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.117	×1.250	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 83 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.17 (+0.80)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.770	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.92%	—	×1.150	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.043	×1.250	1.24%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 75 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.77 (+1.28)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.91%	—	×0.770	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.55%	—	×1.150	16.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.931	×1.250	2.85%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 22 IPFIP 1.40 → 2.63 (+1.23)K% 41.3% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.30%	—	×0.740	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.13%	—	×1.180	16.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.999	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	19.2%	16.7%	3.1%	—	5.55	19.5%	4.0%	243	-0.09	—	—	—
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	72
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	71
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	70
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	69
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	69
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.52	20.7%	11.5%	261	-0.64	3.58	688	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	68
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	68
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	67
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	66
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	66
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	66
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	66
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	65
Eddie Campbell L 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP	6.31	13.7%	17.5%	3.9%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	250	65
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	86	19.4%	15.8%	1.24	5.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*