Dalton Rogers — OGILVIE

Dalton Rogers P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 172 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	25.3%	16.7%	8.6%	2.2%	4.84	4.31	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	25.3%	16.7%	8.6%	2.2%	4.84	4.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	33.2%	14.5%	18.7%	1.7%	4.84	3.04	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	1.0%	5.12	3.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	28.9%	12.8%	16.1%	0.9%	3.09	2.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	BOS	1	1	1	6	3	0	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	25	AA RAW	BOS	20	16	80	368	77	60	14	80%	4.0	20.9%	16.3%	4.6%	3.8%	5.74	5.49	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BOS	2	2	11	44	10	7	1	100%	5.3	22.0%	15.0%	7.0%	2.2%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	92	418	90	67	15	—	—	21.5%	15.9%	5.5%	3.6%	5.54	6.25	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	125	528	117	75	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	14.3%	8.0%	2.3%	4.66	4.66	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	123	520	115	72	12	100%	5.9	22.2%	13.9%	8.4%	2.4%	4.65	4.66	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	119	504	111	69	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.7%	8.4%	2.5%	4.69	4.73	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	481	105	66	13	100%	6.0	21.8%	13.8%	8.1%	2.7%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	453	97	64	13	100%	6.0	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	2.9%	4.93	5.02	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	52	33	5	100%	6.1	22.2%	14.3%	8.0%	2.2%	4.63	4.63	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	73	46	8	100%	6.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.4%	2.3%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	90	380	84	52	9	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.7%	8.4%	2.4%	4.66	4.70	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	86	54	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	13.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.74	4.80	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	92	388	83	55	11	100%	6.1	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	2.8%	4.89	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	408	1724	378	240	43	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	2.5%	4.72	4.38	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	118	21	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	2.5%	4.72	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		90	75	368	1639	345	260	36	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	892	188	142	19	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.0%	15.0%	2.2%	—	4.68	22.2%	8.2%	368	-0.05	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	81
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	81
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	79
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	75
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	75
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	75
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	75
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	75
Ethan Small L 2022 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	22.5%	13.7%	2.1%	.278	3.94	23.7%	13.6%	51	-0.13	1.13	248	75
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	74
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	74
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	74
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	74
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	119	22.0%	14.1%	0.95	4.74
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98