Dalton Rogers
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 172 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%22.0%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 97 | 422 | 140 | 61 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 97 | 422 | 140 | 61 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 33.2% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 4.84 | 3.04 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 19 | 83 | 387 | 89 | 50 | 4 | 90% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 5.12 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 19 | 83 | 387 | 89 | 50 | 4 | 90% | 3.9 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 1.0% | 5.12 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 105 | 447 | 129 | 57 | 4 | 70% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.0% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 3.42 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 105 | 447 | 129 | 57 | 4 | 70% | 4.6 | 28.9% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 2.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 12 | 8 | 43 | 190 | 39 | 31 | 6 | 67% | 3.6 | 15.8% | 18.5% | -2.7% | 3.9% | 3.95 | 6.26 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 44 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 114 | 486 | 104 | 75 | 12 | — | — | 21.4% | 15.4% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 4.69 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 117 | 74 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 4.62 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 123 | 520 | 115 | 71 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 111 | 68 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 105 | 65 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 107 | 453 | 97 | 63 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 89 | 60 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 14.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.18 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 92 | 391 | 81 | 57 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.6% | 14.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.63 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 73 | 45 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 84 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 86 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 83 | 54 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 79 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 14.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 73 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 14.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 97 | 582 | 2458 | 531 | 341 | 68 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.54 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 117 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 66 | 330 | 1455 | 312 | 228 | 26 | 81% | 4.1 | 21.4% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 883 | 189 | 139 | 16 | 81% | 4.1 | 21.4% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 2.2% | — | 4.64 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 368 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 76 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 76 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 75 |
| Ethan Small L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.14 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .278 | 4.22 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 51 | +0.08 | 1.13 | 248 | 75 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 75 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 75 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 75 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 75 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 75 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 74 |
| Scott Moss L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.13 | 23.7% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.10 | 26.3% | 10.1% | 20 | -0.03 | 3.68 | 457 | 73 |
| Danny Duffy L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 73 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 73 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 73 |
| Mason Green L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .307 | 3.83 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 117 | -0.93 | 3.56 | 410 | 72 |
| Garrett Williams L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.65 | 23.8% | 7.8% | 129 | +0.36 | 3.36 | 470 | 72 |
| Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 71 |
| Carlos Peña L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.91 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .288 | 4.19 | 18.5% | 12.9% | 159 | +0.28 | 3.17 | 577 | 71 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 113 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.01 | 4.79 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |