Matt Wilkinson — OGILVIE

Matt Wilkinson P Sacramento River Cats

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 250 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%22.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p1015.4%

p1014.1%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-2.90	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	28.5%	9.2%	19.2%	2.5%	1.90	3.23	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	28.5%	9.2%	19.2%	2.5%	1.90	3.23	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	37.6%	8.0%	29.6%	2.2%	1.90	2.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	4.24	4.84	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	4.24	4.84	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.24	3.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	4	17	71	10	4	4	80%	3.3	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	5.6%	5.40	5.74	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	25	24	107	424	106	35	13	96%	4.3	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.5%	3.71	4.30	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	25	24	107	424	106	35	13	96%	4.3	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.5%	3.71	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	SF	1	1	3	10	4	1	0	100%	3.0	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SF	9	9	43	164	49	13	2	100%	4.8	29.9%	7.9%	22.0%	1.2%	1.87	2.25	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	SF	10	10	44	179	43	17	7	100%	4.4	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.9%	5.15	4.42	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	SF	5	4	17	71	10	4	4	80%	3.3	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	5.6%	5.40	5.72	-0.2
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	SF	5	4	17	71	10	4	4	80%	3.3	14.1%	5.6%	8.5%	5.6%	5.40	5.72	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SF	2	2	12	49	11	5	2	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	SF	2	2	12	51	11	5	1	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.10	4.10	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	118	473	117	40	15	—	—	24.7%	8.5%	16.3%	3.1%	3.76	4.29	+0.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	28	120	117	40	14	—	—	97.7%	33.5%	64.3%	12.0%	15.65	5.70	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	142	600	131	55	20	100%	5.7	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.64	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	144	608	135	54	20	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.54	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	608	136	53	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.52	4.50	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	142	599	134	53	20	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.52	4.53	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	138	581	129	52	20	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.4%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	131	554	122	51	20	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.75	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	123	521	113	49	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	115	486	103	48	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.4%	4.0%	5.01	5.12	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	135	570	124	52	18	100%	5.6	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.50	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	137	578	128	51	18	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.44	4.40	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	137	578	130	51	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.36	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	135	570	128	50	18	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.1%	4.38	4.39	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	131	553	123	50	18	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	125	528	116	48	17	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.60	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	20	20	117	494	107	47	17	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.5%	4.67	4.76	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	109	460	98	45	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.4%	3.7%	4.85	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	180	1054	4450	974	403	145	99%	5.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.19	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	185	76	28	99%	5.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		75	73	330	1337	312	129	42	97%	4.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	3.2%	3.21	4.09	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	809	189	78	26	97%	4.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	3.2%	3.21	4.09	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Wilkinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.9%	10.7%	3.1%	—	4.56	22.1%	13.2%	430	-0.04	—	—	—
Eric Lauer L 2018 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.2%	9.1%	2.7%	.311	3.90	22.3%	14.4%	279	-0.10	3.75	1,097	83
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.54	18.5%	8.9%	417	-0.71	4.40	671	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	80
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	79
Yohander Méndez L 2018 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP	5.20	17.0%	9.1%	4.3%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	477	78
Dillon Overton L 2015 · 3.54 FIP	23	SP	3.54	16.3%	5.9%	1.9%	.314	4.86	13.9%	7.5%	345	+1.32	3.54	631	78
David Peterson L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	19.8%	8.2%	2.1%	.333	3.77	24.8%	14.4%	248	+0.13	2.81	1,061	78
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	78
Wes Benjamin L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.1%	3.6%	.321	4.52	16.4%	8.1%	334	+0.14	3.87	666	78
Harrison Musgrave L 2015 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	17.8%	6.0%	3.0%	.292	4.57	15.4%	6.3%	269	+0.56	4.01	440	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	76
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	76
Braxton Garrett L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	20.9%	10.4%	3.0%	.306	3.44	22.8%	17.8%	345	-0.87	3.36	688	76
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	75
Matthew Boyd L 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP	4.53	19.4%	7.2%	3.9%	.252	4.27	20.5%	13.1%	518	-0.26	2.22	1,440	75
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	75
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	135	22.1%	9.3%	1.33	4.66
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01