Matt Wilkinson

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 250 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	24	119	1.90	2.20	37.6%	8.0%	—	K 28.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.23
2025	22	A+CLE	25	25	104	4.24	3.77	26.2%	10.1%	—	K 20.2% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.84
2026	23	MIX4 levels	28	26	118	3.44	3.59	25.1%	7.8%	2.6	K 21.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	10	10	56	4.31	4.83	18.8%	8.7%	0.4
2028PROJ82% MLB	25	MLBSF	12	12	72	4.38	4.56	19.7%	8.5%	0.6
2029PROJ88% MLB	26	MLBSF	12	12	72	4.45	4.51	20.1%	8.4%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.198First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%23

FB Velo10

Form2.86 ERA (proj 4.31) · K 21.2% (proj 18.8%) · BB 5.9% (proj 8.7%) ▲ last 60d · 22 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 74%

CompsMarc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Andy Oliver (age 22) · John Gast (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.31

FIP4.83

K%18.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-2.90	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	28.5%	9.2%	19.2%	2.5%	1.90	3.23	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	28.5%	9.2%	19.2%	2.5%	1.90	3.23	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	463	174	37	10	100%	4.9	37.6%	8.0%	29.6%	2.2%	1.90	2.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	4.24	4.84	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	3.6%	4.24	4.84	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	25	25	104	447	117	45	13	100%	4.2	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.24	3.77	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	26	118	463	116	36	14	93%	4.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.4%	3.44	4.14	+1.7
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	26	118	463	116	36	14	93%	4.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.4%	3.44	4.14	+1.7
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	26	118	463	116	36	14	93%	4.2	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	3.0%	3.44	3.59	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	6	28	110	20	5	5	75%	3.5	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	4.5%	3.58	4.55	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	10	10	56	236	44	21	8	100%	5.6	18.8%	8.7%	10.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.83	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	87	366	72	31	12	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.70	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	81	344	69	29	11	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	78	328	66	28	11	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	74	311	62	27	11	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.68	4.73	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	68	285	56	25	10	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.5%	4.81	4.89	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	60	255	48	23	10	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.7%	4.98	5.10	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	72	304	60	26	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.38	4.56	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	72	304	61	25	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.45	4.51	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	71	300	60	25	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	68	287	58	25	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	8.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.54	4.59	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	63	266	52	23	9	100%	6.3	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.66	4.74	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	57	241	45	22	8	100%	5.7	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.95	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	73	429	1805	355	151	58	97%	5.7	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.48	4.27	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	841	165	70	27	97%	5.7	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.48	4.27	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		78	75	341	1376	324	130	43	96%	4.4	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	3.2%	3.14	4.04	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	806	190	76	25	96%	4.4	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	3.2%	3.14	4.04	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 44 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.80 (+0.38)K% 24.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.02%	—	×0.860	20.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×0.900	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 43 IPFIP 2.25 → 2.96 (+0.71)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.88%	—	×0.810	24.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.100	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 104 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.84 (+1.08)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.17%	—	×0.770	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.150	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.011	×1.250	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 78 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.73 (+0.87)K% 32.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.70%	—	×0.770	25.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.150	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.190	×1.250	2.67%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 40 IPFIP 0.56 → 2.15 (+1.59)K% 48.0% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.97%	—	×0.740	35.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.08%	—	×1.180	7.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.844	×1.300	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 0.56 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Wilkinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.67	19.9%	11.5%	246	-0.16	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	78
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	77
Chris Rusin L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	15.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.343	4.42	13.3%	6.8%	245	-0.09	2.89	596	76
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	76
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	74
Jeff Locke L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	23.0%	7.4%	4.4%	.309	4.01	17.2%	8.4%	466	-0.50	3.79	676	73
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	73
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	72
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	72
Wade Miley L 2011 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP	5.01	13.9%	10.0%	3.3%	.321	3.62	18.8%	12.0%	599	-1.39	3.12	1,805	72
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	71
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	71
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	71
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	70
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	70
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	70
Kyle Lobstein L 2014 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	16.5%	7.3%	1.9%	.262	4.34	13.6%	4.6%	194	+0.65	3.33	419	70
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	19.5%	8.4%	1.33	4.57
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50