Matt Wilkinson
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 250 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%22.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.90 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 463 | 174 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.5% | 9.2% | 19.2% | 2.4% | 1.90 | 3.17 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 463 | 174 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 37.6% | 8.0% | 29.6% | 2.2% | 1.90 | 2.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 104 | 447 | 117 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.24 | 4.82 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 104 | 447 | 117 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Akron RubberDucks | 17 | 17 | 73 | 285 | 85 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.3 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 2.34 | 3.36 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 138 | 559 | 148 | 55 | 13 | — | — | 26.4% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.94 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 142 | 600 | 140 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 144 | 608 | 144 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 144 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 142 | 599 | 142 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 137 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 129 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 123 | 521 | 120 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 96 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 115 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 121 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 122 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 117 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 110 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 126 | 751 | 3172 | 744 | 301 | 100 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.06 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 66 | 297 | 1198 | 294 | 123 | 32 | 99% | 4.4 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 2.82 | 3.81 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 808 | 198 | 83 | 22 | 99% | 4.4 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 2.82 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Wilkinson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.35 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 430 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 86 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 86 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 325 | -0.33 | 3.66 | 437 | 86 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 84 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.53 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .318 | 5.02 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 136 | +0.49 | 4.53 | 315 | 83 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 81 |
| Cade Povich L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.17 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 330 | -0.07 | 3.77 | 571 | 80 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.73 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .329 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.37 | 3.73 | 280 | 80 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 80 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 80 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 79 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 79 |
| Eric Lauer L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.13 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 14.4% | 279 | -0.07 | 3.81 | 1,101 | 79 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.22 | 3.42 | 432 | 79 |
| Anthony Banda L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.03 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.10 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 85 | +0.07 | 2.98 | 876 | 79 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .358 | 3.35 | 22.9% | 16.0% | 82 | -0.31 | 3.35 | 302 | 79 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.96 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.20 | 3.85 | 269 | 78 |
| Tommy Henry L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.80 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.8% | .327 | 4.46 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 417 | -0.34 | 4.33 | 629 | 78 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.39 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.3% | .289 | 3.76 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 95 | +0.37 | 2.37 | 211 | 78 |
| Mason Montgomery L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .272 | 4.18 | 27.4% | 16.8% | 171 | -0.67 | 2.91 | 419 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 138 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 1.21 | 4.44 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |