Cade Povich
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 26
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.51
FIP4.47
K%21.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p1014.6%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
FB+2.4 (52%)
SL+0.9 (15%)
SI (9%)
CU (23%)
CT (2%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 75% | 2.5 | 45.2% | 4.8% | 40.5% | 0.0% | 0.90 | -0.12 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 75% | 2.5 | 45.2% | 4.8% | 40.5% | 0.0% | 0.90 | -0.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 148 | 39 | 14 | 96% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 148 | 39 | 14 | 96% | 4.8 | 30.8% | 8.1% | 22.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 3.13 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 127 | 550 | 171 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 4.5 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 127 | 550 | 171 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 4.5 | 31.1% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 157 | 668 | 158 | 60 | 19 | 97% | 5.1 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 157 | 668 | 158 | 60 | 19 | 97% | 5.1 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.81 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 133 | 573 | 139 | 45 | 18 | 93% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 3.77 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 133 | 573 | 139 | 45 | 18 | 93% | 4.9 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 16.4% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 3.79 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 11 | 10 | 50 | 219 | 49 | 17 | 13 | 91% | 4.5 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 5.94 | 6.17 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 44 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 99 | 425 | 93 | 36 | 21 | — | — | 21.8% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 5.23 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 68 | 288 | 93 | 36 | 21 | — | — | 32.2% | 12.4% | 19.8% | 7.2% | 7.64 | 5.92 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 88 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 87 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 99 | 419 | 81 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 93 | 394 | 73 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.29 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 84 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 83 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 77 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 70 | 37 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 112 | 640 | 2734 | 556 | 250 | 102 | 97% | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.58 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 174 | 78 | 32 | 97% | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 119 | 591 | 2533 | 604 | 244 | 83 | 95% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.10 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 858 | 204 | 82 | 28 | 95% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Povich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.94 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 307 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 74 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 74 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 73 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.75 | 3.21 | 372 | 73 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 72 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.62 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.83 | 3.79 | 327 | 71 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.05 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.13 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.08 | 3.47 | 393 | 71 |
| Andrew Alvarez L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .278 | 3.78 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 83 | -0.45 | 3.35 | 575 | 70 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 70 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 70 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 70 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 69 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 334 | +0.65 | 3.98 | 442 | 69 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 69 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 69 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 69 |
| Matt Gage L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.90 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.54 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 101 | -0.36 | 2.66 | 894 | 69 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.88 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.57 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 355 | -0.31 | 3.36 | 764 | 69 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 69 |
| Austin Warner L 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.98 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .313 | 4.29 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 159 | -0.69 | 3.88 | 491 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 94 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 1.39 | 4.91 |
| Derek Holland ('21) | 7 | 92 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.59 | 5.12 |
| Drew Hutchison ('22) | 5 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 5.16 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |