Cade Povich — OGILVIE

Cade Povich P Norfolk Tides

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.34

FIP4.30

K%20.8%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

FB+2.4 (53%)

SL+0.9 (12%)

SI (9%)

CU (23%)

CT (1%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	10	42	19	2	0	75%	2.5	45.2%	4.8%	40.5%	0.0%	0.90	-0.12	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	10	42	19	2	0	75%	2.5	45.2%	4.8%	40.5%	0.0%	0.90	-0.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	114	481	148	39	14	96%	4.8	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.08	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	114	481	148	39	14	96%	4.8	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.9%	4.50	3.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	127	550	171	66	18	100%	4.5	25.4%	12.1%	13.2%	3.4%	5.04	4.35	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	127	550	171	66	18	100%	4.5	25.4%	12.1%	13.2%	3.4%	5.04	4.35	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	127	550	171	66	18	100%	4.5	31.1%	12.0%	19.1%	3.3%	5.04	3.81	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.01	+1.7
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.01	+1.7
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	2.8%	4.35	3.81	+2.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	3.1%	5.02	3.81	+1.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	3.1%	5.02	3.81	+1.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.1%	5.02	3.79	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	42	225	982	212	87	34	93%	5.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.5%	5.03	4.34	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	21	102	442	101	37	23	95%	4.6	19.9%	8.1%	11.7%	5.7%	5.38	5.57	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	21	102	442	101	37	23	95%	4.6	19.9%	8.1%	11.7%	5.7%	5.38	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	BAL	2	2	7	28	7	1	1	100%	3.5	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	3.6%	3.86	3.40	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BAL	13	13	62	272	69	23	17	100%	4.7	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	6.2%	6.28	5.46	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	BAL	7	6	33	142	25	13	5	86%	4.8	17.6%	9.2%	8.5%	3.5%	4.05	4.71	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	BAL	7	6	33	142	25	13	5	86%	4.8	17.6%	9.2%	8.5%	3.5%	4.05	4.71	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	9	36	7	3	1	100%	8.5	20.8%	8.6%	12.1%	3.4%	4.34	4.30	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	9	38	8	3	1	100%	4.5	20.8%	8.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	111	478	108	40	24	—	—	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	5.1%	5.30	5.47	-0.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	42	177	108	40	24	—	—	61.4%	22.7%	38.7%	13.7%	14.01	8.33	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	606	122	54	20	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	606	121	55	21	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	137	578	113	54	21	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.1%	3.6%	4.92	5.00	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	129	544	102	53	21	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	3.8%	5.09	5.21	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	136	574	116	52	20	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.83	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	136	574	115	52	21	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.90	4.93	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	130	549	107	51	21	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.4%	10.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	122	515	97	50	20	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	4.0%	5.18	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	131	759	3235	655	296	117	98%	5.7	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.6%	4.99	4.54	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	853	173	78	31	98%	5.7	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.6%	4.99	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		136	130	643	2756	639	252	97	96%	4.7	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.23	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	858	199	78	30	96%	4.7	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.23	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Povich (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.4%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.86	19.9%	10.7%	424	+0.29	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	77
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	74
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	74
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	72
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	72
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	72
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	72
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	72
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	71
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	70
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	70
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	70
Brett Oberholtzer L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	15.7%	6.4%	2.9%	.299	4.77	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.59	3.89	442	70
Matt Gage L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP	4.03	17.8%	7.8%	2.6%	.352	3.51	24.6%	16.2%	101	-0.52	2.64	894	70
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	69
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	69
Mike Montgomery L 2015 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP	3.88	17.3%	8.4%	2.1%	.289	3.64	18.7%	10.5%	355	-0.24	3.43	764	69
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	69
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	69
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	129	19.9%	9.2%	1.35	4.85
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56