Cade Povich

P Norfolk Tides

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	31	30	157	4.35	3.81	23.7%	9.0%	3.0	K 21.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.98
2025	25	MIX3 levels	27	25	133	5.02	3.79	24.3%	7.9%	2.6	K 23.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.80
2026	26	MIX3 levels	23	22	106	5.45	5.19	22.6%	8.5%	0.2	K 20.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.54
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	8	8	48	4.93	5.02	20.2%	8.6%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBBAL	8	8	46	5.03	5.10	20.1%	8.8%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBBAL	7	7	40	5.17	5.27	19.5%	9.0%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs34

K%18

FB Velo12

Form3.57 ERA (proj 4.93) · K 20.5% (proj 20.2%) · BB 10.3% (proj 8.6%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrandon Claussen (age 27) · Brad Mills (age 26) · Greg Smith (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.93

FIP5.02

K%20.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	10	42	19	2	0	75%	2.5	45.2%	4.8%	40.5%	0.0%	0.90	-0.12	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	10	42	19	2	0	75%	2.5	45.2%	4.8%	40.5%	0.0%	0.90	-0.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	114	481	148	39	14	96%	4.8	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.08	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	114	481	148	39	14	96%	4.8	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.9%	4.50	3.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	127	550	171	66	18	100%	4.5	25.7%	12.1%	13.5%	3.4%	5.04	4.32	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	127	550	171	66	18	100%	4.5	31.1%	12.0%	19.1%	3.3%	5.04	3.81	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.98	+2.7
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.98	+2.7
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	157	668	158	60	19	97%	5.1	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	2.8%	4.35	3.81	+3.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.1%	5.02	3.80	+2.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.1%	5.02	3.80	+2.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	25	133	573	139	45	18	93%	4.9	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.1%	5.02	3.79	+2.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	106	460	104	39	24	96%	4.6	20.2%	8.3%	12.0%	5.7%	5.45	5.54	-0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	106	460	104	39	24	96%	4.6	20.2%	8.3%	12.0%	5.7%	5.45	5.54	-0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	106	460	104	39	24	96%	4.6	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	5.2%	5.45	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			46	43	229	1000	215	89	35	93%	5.0	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.5%	5.07	4.38	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	8	8	48	203	41	18	8	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.9%	4.93	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	49	206	41	18	8	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	4.0%	5.03	5.10	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	42	176	34	16	7	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.2%	5.17	5.27	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	46	194	39	17	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	4.0%	5.03	5.10	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	40	169	33	15	7	100%	5.7	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.2%	5.17	5.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	57	315	1363	287	121	50	95%	5.2	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.7%	5.08	4.46	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	865	182	77	32	95%	5.2	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.7%	5.08	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		137	131	646	2774	649	254	98	96%	4.7	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.5%	4.78	4.22	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	858	201	79	30	96%	4.7	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.5%	4.78	4.22	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 62 IPFIP 5.46 → 6.00 (+0.54)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.860	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.46%	—	×0.900	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.46 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 7 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.24 (+0.84)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.100	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 17 IPFIP 2.49 → 2.82 (+0.33)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.860	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×0.900	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.945	×1.100	1.53%

Result: FIP 2.49 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 78 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.37 (+0.35)K% 28.2% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.16%	—	×0.860	24.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×0.900	7.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 81 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.13 (+0.66)K% 33.4% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.43%	—	×0.810	27.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.100	11.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.208	×1.200	3.38%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 45 IPFIP 4.36 → 4.67 (+0.31)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.90%	—	×0.860	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.72%	—	×0.900	13.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷0.995	×1.100	3.37%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 91 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.67 (+1.05)K% 32.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.28%	—	×0.770	24.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.150	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.029	×1.250	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 23 IPFIP 4.99 → 5.59 (+0.61)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.24%	—	×0.810	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.68%	—	×1.100	11.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷1.170	×1.200	4.98%

Result: FIP 4.99 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Povich (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	—	5.18	19.8%	10.9%	90	+0.16	—	—	—
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	65
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	65
Greg Smith L 2010 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	17.0%	12.1%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	349	65
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	64
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	64
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	62
David Huff L 2012 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	16.7%	4.4%	4.4%	.294	3.82	17.2%	11.4%	154	-0.84	3.40	540	62
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	62
Matt Chico L 2008 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	14.2%	7.3%	4.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	215	62
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	62
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	61
John Lamb L 2017 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	13.6%	8.8%	3.2%	.333	4.64	22.5%	15.3%	60	-0.19	3.38	390	61
Mark Redman L 2001 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	12.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.308	4.02	14.6%	7.8%	585	-0.60	3.52	1,239	61
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	60
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	60
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	59
Dallas Braden L 2011 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP	3.88	20.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	491	59
Jake Dahlberg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	22.5%	5.0%	4.6%	.397	5.36	17.9%	10.2%	100	+1.03	3.11	226	58
Pedro Hernandez L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	13.1%	8.9%	1.8%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	124	58
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	20.9%	9.1%	1.43	5.06
John Boozer ('62-'69, -2 WAR*)	2.0	66	21.1%*	9.0%*	1.46*	5.15*
John Strohmayer ('70-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.6	78	19.6%*	9.2%*	1.42*	5.14*
Jorge López ('25)	2.8	70	19.8%	8.8%	1.36	5.31
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Rich Folkers ('70-'77, -0 WAR*)	2.1	85	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.35*	4.91*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98