Cade Povich
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 26
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.66
FIP4.30
xFIP4.53
SIERA4.54
K%23.2%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%14.4%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5050
FB+2.4 (52%)
SL+0.9 (13%)
SI (9%)
CU (23%)
CT (4%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 4 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 24 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 148 | 39 | 14 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 28 | 28 | 127 | 550 | 171 | 66 | 18 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 30 | 157 | 668 | 158 | 60 | 19 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 3.98 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | 25 | 133 | 573 | 139 | 45 | 18 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 2 | 17 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 52 | 216 | 47 | 16 | 8 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 3.02 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 78 | 33 | 12 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 85 | 361 | 73 | 31 | 11 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 71 | 26 | 10 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 24 | 10 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 55 | 21 | 9 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 111 | 558 | 2383 | 575 | 228 | 74 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 3.99 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 854 | 206 | 82 | 27 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Povich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.51 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 254 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 71 |
| Adam Kolarek L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.81 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .281 | 2.61 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 183 | -1.20 | 2.20 | 504 | 69 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 68 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.03 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 193 | -0.56 | 3.08 | 264 | 68 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 67 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.65 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.70 | 332 | 67 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 67 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 67 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.1% | .280 | 5.07 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +1.60 | 3.47 | 431 | 67 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 67 |
| Harrison Musgrave L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.84 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 24 | +0.23 | 4.05 | 440 | 67 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 66 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 66 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 66 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 66 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 66 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.67 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .278 | 5.04 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.37 | 4.67 | 118 | 66 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 66 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 66 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 66 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$4M | ||