Andrew Abbott — OGILVIE

Andrew Abbott P Cincinnati Reds

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 192 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION154 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.11

FIP4.42

K%18.5%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

FB+0.7 (45%)

CU (13%)

CT (3%)

SL (20%)

CH-3.3 (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.692 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-4M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	13	56	22	4	2	83%	2.2	39.3%	7.1%	32.1%	3.6%	4.15	2.65	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	13	56	22	4	2	83%	2.2	39.3%	7.1%	32.1%	3.6%	4.15	2.64	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	489	159	48	8	96%	4.7	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	2.0%	3.81	3.36	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	118	489	159	48	8	96%	4.7	32.5%	9.8%	22.7%	1.6%	3.81	2.51	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	163	670	210	61	24	100%	5.3	29.0%	8.9%	20.0%	3.5%	3.42	3.69	+2.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	163	670	210	61	24	100%	5.3	29.0%	8.9%	20.0%	3.5%	3.42	3.69	+2.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	163	670	210	61	24	100%	5.3	31.3%	9.1%	22.2%	3.6%	3.42	3.56	+2.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	25	25	138	586	114	51	25	100%	5.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	4.0%	3.72	4.73	+0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	25	25	138	586	114	51	25	100%	5.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	4.0%	3.72	4.73	+0.3
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	25	25	138	586	114	51	25	100%	5.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	4.3%	3.72	4.91	-0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	176	727	157	48	22	100%	5.7	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	2.6%	2.91	3.47	+3.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	176	727	157	48	22	100%	5.7	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	2.6%	2.91	3.47	+3.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	176	727	157	48	22	100%	5.7	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	3.0%	2.91	3.76	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	105	568	2408	503	208	84	100%	5.4	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.5%	3.79	4.35	+3.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	30	30	154	679	120	70	24	100%	5.1	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.71	+0.3
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	30	30	154	679	120	70	24	100%	5.1	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.71	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	CIN	30	30	154	679	120	70	24	100%	5.1	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.5%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CIN	30	30	154	679	120	70	24	100%	5.1	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.5%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	14	57	11	5	2	100%	6.8	18.5%	9.3%	9.3%	3.1%	4.11	4.42	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	14	59	11	5	2	100%	7.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.24	4.55	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	168	736	131	75	26	—	—	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.5%	4.73	4.69	+0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	168	709	131	75	26	—	—	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	3.7%	4.74	4.90	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	163	688	128	65	24	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	3.4%	4.83	4.99	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	156	657	119	63	24	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.7%	8.4%	3.6%	5.02	5.15	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	146	618	107	62	23	100%	6.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.4%	3.8%	5.22	5.35	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	27	27	163	688	128	65	26	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	3.7%	4.98	5.14	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	156	659	119	64	25	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.7%	8.4%	3.9%	5.18	5.31	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	146	616	107	61	25	100%	6.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.4%	4.1%	5.39	5.52	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	185	1047	4429	868	403	162	100%	5.7	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	3.7%	4.41	4.61	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	166	77	31	100%	5.7	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	3.7%	4.41	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		148	146	763	3207	736	284	99	99%	5.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.1%	3.70	3.98	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	841	193	74	26	99%	5.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.1%	3.70	3.98	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Abbott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	21.2%	7.3%	3.1%	—	5.16	18.0%	8.4%	465	+0.87	—	—	—
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,440	71
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.94	1,009	68
Steven Matz L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	23.2%	8.6%	3.8%	.259	4.21	22.5%	15.9%	342	-0.12	3.19	1,220	63
Eric Lauer L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP	4.36	23.8%	8.9%	3.9%	.258	4.48	22.3%	14.4%	294	+0.12	3.75	1,097	62
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	27	SP-	4.16	24.9%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.57	20.1%	10.9%	421	-0.59	2.81	1,061	58
Joey Lucchesi L 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP	3.98	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.269	3.18	26.1%	19.1%	38	-0.80	3.18	817	57
Jose Quintana L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	27	SP	3.43	21.6%	5.9%	2.6%	.291	3.82	22.8%	15.4%	534	+0.39	2.95	1,596	56
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	56
Marco Gonzales L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	27	SP	3.97	17.0%	6.4%	2.7%	.292	4.70	16.9%	11.1%	396	+0.73	3.09	1,108	56
Adam Conley L 2017 · 5.07 FIP	27	SP	5.07	14.6%	8.7%	3.8%	.293	4.43	18.9%	10.6%	151	-0.64	3.55	674	55
Roenis Elías L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	18.7%	11.2%	2.1%	.297	4.14	18.2%	10.4%	176	+0.05	3.15	564	55
Max Fried L 2021 · 3.11 FIP	27	SP	3.11	23.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.274	2.86	23.6%	17.7%	437	-0.25	2.56	1,435	55
Jeff Locke L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP	3.79	17.5%	7.6%	2.2%	.306	4.59	13.7%	6.5%	159	+0.80	3.79	328	54
Tyler Skaggs L 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	24.2%	7.5%	2.6%	.323	3.64	23.3%	14.9%	80	+0.22	3.18	372	54
Héctor Santiago L 2015 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP	4.43	20.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.245	5.13	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.70	4.32	713	54
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	54
Kyle Freeland L 2020 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.1%	7.6%	2.6%	.301	4.22	16.9%	10.1%	451	+0.00	3.37	1,616	53
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	53
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	52
Jonathon Niese L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	28	SP	4.16	14.7%	6.9%	2.6%	.295	5.28	16.1%	8.0%	121	+1.12	4.16	368	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	157	18.9%	9.0%	1.34	4.75
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75