Andrew Abbott
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 192 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.11
FIP4.43
K%19.3%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
FB+0.7 (46%)
CU (13%)
CT (2%)
SL (21%)
CH-3.3 (18%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 5 | 13 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 83% | 2.2 | 39.3% | 7.1% | 32.1% | 3.6% | 4.15 | 2.65 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 5 | 13 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 83% | 2.2 | 39.3% | 7.1% | 32.1% | 3.6% | 4.15 | 2.64 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 489 | 159 | 48 | 8 | 96% | 4.7 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 3.81 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 489 | 159 | 48 | 8 | 96% | 4.7 | 32.5% | 9.8% | 22.7% | 1.6% | 3.81 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 163 | 670 | 210 | 61 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 29.4% | 9.3% | 20.1% | 3.4% | 3.42 | 3.69 | +3.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 163 | 670 | 210 | 61 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.3% | 9.1% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 3.42 | 3.56 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 25 | 138 | 586 | 114 | 51 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 3.72 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 25 | 138 | 586 | 114 | 51 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 3.72 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 176 | 727 | 157 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 2.91 | 3.50 | +3.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 176 | 727 | 157 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 2.91 | 3.76 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 20 | 20 | 105 | 457 | 84 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 173 | 744 | 139 | 74 | 25 | — | — | 18.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 4.66 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 173 | 731 | 139 | 74 | 26 | — | — | 19.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.71 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 133 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.88 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 156 | 657 | 124 | 62 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.04 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 133 | 64 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.93 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 124 | 63 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.09 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 161 | 905 | 3819 | 779 | 338 | 134 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.42 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 75 | 30 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 136 | 714 | 2985 | 702 | 264 | 94 | 99% | 5.2 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 3.95 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 837 | 197 | 74 | 26 | 99% | 5.2 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Abbott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.96 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 319 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.71 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.50 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 159 | +0.79 | 3.71 | 328 | 54 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.54 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .245 | 5.12 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 378 | +0.58 | 4.40 | 713 | 54 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 52 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 52 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 121 | +1.12 | 4.17 | 368 | 51 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 51 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 50 |
| Brad Mills L 2029 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 50 |
| Brett Anderson L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.93 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .308 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 207 | +0.01 | 3.43 | 706 | 50 |
| John Danks L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 50 |
| Matthew Boyd L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.40 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | .252 | 4.44 | 26.2% | 19.5% | 324 | +0.04 | 2.22 | 1,376 | 50 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 50 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | .306 | 4.56 | 25.4% | 14.8% | 305 | -0.94 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 50 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.80 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 122 | 49 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 49 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2029 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 49 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 135 | 49 |
| Wade Miley L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.69 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .305 | 4.19 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 429 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 48 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.26 | 14.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | .352 | 4.37 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 310 | +0.11 | 3.13 | 455 | 48 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.93 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.32 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.39 | 3.68 | 549 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 161 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 1.30 | 4.54 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |