Andrew Abbott
P
Cincinnati Reds
+1.7
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 192 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.7 · 2026
ERA3.89
FIP4.19
xFIP4.77
SIERA5.09
K%21.9%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%14.4%
IP158
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p1013.2%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
FB+0.7 (46%)
CU (13%)
SL (15%)
CH-3.3 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 6 | 5 | 13 | 56 | 22 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 25 | 24 | 118 | 489 | 159 | 48 | 8 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 3.81 | 3.36 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 163 | 670 | 210 | 61 | 24 | 29.4% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 3.42 | 3.63 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 25 | 138 | 586 | 114 | 51 | 25 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 3.72 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 176 | 727 | 157 | 48 | 22 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 2.91 | 3.46 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 4 | 20 | 90 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 5.85 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 100 | 41 | 15 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 147 | 626 | 112 | 49 | 17 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 107 | 45 | 17 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 95 | 41 | 16 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 83 | 38 | 14 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 72 | 34 | 13 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 62 | 31 | 12 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 50 | 23 | 10 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 42 | 21 | 9 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 120 | 629 | 2618 | 630 | 224 | 76 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.51 | 3.75 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 833 | 200 | 71 | 24 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.51 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Abbott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 373 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Mike Belfiore L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 135 | 54 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.64 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.65 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 159 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 328 | 53 |
| Yohan Flande L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.79 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.27 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.52 | 3.17 | 335 | 53 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.49 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.47 | 4.49 | 206 | 53 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.14 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 121 | +0.97 | 4.17 | 368 | 53 |
| Matt Crouse L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 12.0% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 342 | 53 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 133 | 53 |
| Brad Mills L 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.66 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 6.15 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.49 | 4.66 | 182 | 52 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .278 | 4.19 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | +0.02 | 4.01 | 642 | 52 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.84 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 1.3% | .273 | 4.15 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 160 | +0.31 | 3.44 | 360 | 52 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 52 |
| Scott Diamond L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .330 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.33 | 3.45 | 316 | 52 |
| Zack Dodson L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 10.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 162 | 52 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.35 | 13.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .280 | 5.94 | 10.8% | -2.1% | 12 | +1.59 | 3.72 | 408 | 51 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.23 | 14.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | .352 | 4.49 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 310 | +0.26 | 3.35 | 455 | 51 |
| Yean Carlos Gil L 2023 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 11.4% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 155 | 51 |
| Matthew Kent L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 12.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .313 | 4.26 | 12.5% | 6.7% | 205 | +0.10 | 3.09 | 821 | 51 |
| Brett Anderson L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.81 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .308 | 3.97 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 207 | +0.16 | 3.53 | 706 | 51 |
| John Danks L 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.92 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 200 | 51 |
| John Lannan L 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.81 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.85 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 132 | +1.04 | 3.81 | 284 | 51 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.692 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.2 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +1.0 | $8M | +$5M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $4M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $35M | +$25M | ||