Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 27 | 165 | 699 | 93 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 11.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.13 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 27 | 165 | 699 | 93 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.3% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.80 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 180 | 717 | 123 | 43 | 10 | 93% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.34 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 180 | 717 | 123 | 43 | 10 | 93% | 6.0 | 17.2% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 3.21 | 3.17 | +4.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 24 | 164 | 692 | 73 | 41 | 17 | 71% | 4.8 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 24 | 164 | 692 | 73 | 41 | 17 | 71% | 4.8 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.31 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 47 | 13 | 119 | 512 | 75 | 37 | 8 | 28% | 2.5 | 14.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 4.25 | 3.71 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 47 | 13 | 119 | 512 | 75 | 37 | 8 | 28% | 2.5 | 14.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 3.65 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 587 | 90 | 44 | 23 | 85% | 4.7 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.74 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 587 | 90 | 44 | 23 | 85% | 4.7 | 15.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 7.74 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 22 | 81 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 94% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 2.1% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 1.83 | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 22 | 81 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 94% | 1.4 | 28.4% | 1.2% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 1.15 | — |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 80 | 351 | 49 | 17 | 7 | 5% | 2.1 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 5.27 | 3.55 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 80 | 351 | 49 | 17 | 7 | 5% | 2.1 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 5.27 | 3.65 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 109 | 485 | 77 | 32 | 17 | 58% | 3.5 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.18 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 109 | 485 | 77 | 32 | 17 | 58% | 3.5 | 15.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 112 | 496 | 60 | 24 | 24 | 66% | 3.5 | 11.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.93 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 112 | 496 | 60 | 24 | 24 | 66% | 3.5 | 12.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.93 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 56 | 241 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 15.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 56 | 241 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.9% | 5.4% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 14 | 8 | 53 | 235 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 57% | 3.8 | 14.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.64 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 237 | 29 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 12.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.20 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 29 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 12.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 109 | 472 | 68 | 35 | 15 | — | — | 14.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 5.41 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 59 | 250 | 68 | 35 | 15 | — | — | 27.3% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 9.98 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 52 | 221 | 25 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 46 | 193 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.65 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 39 | 166 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 10.0% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 5.98 | 6.20 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 52 | 220 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.6 | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.68 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 10.0% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 6.01 | 6.23 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 101 | 716 | 3105 | 385 | 210 | 102 | 54% | 3.8 | 12.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.71 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 28 | 200 | 867 | 108 | 59 | 28 | 54% | 3.8 | 12.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 308 | 190 | 1183 | 5096 | 685 | 313 | 138 | 62% | 3.8 | 13.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.23 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 862 | 116 | 53 | 23 | 62% | 3.8 | 13.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Blach (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 12.2% | 6.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.80 | 10.5% | 2.9% | 137 | +0.72 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 68 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 64 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 61 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.86 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | .322 | 7.02 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +1.16 | 4.35 | 327 | 60 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 59 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 56 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.77 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 574 | 56 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 56 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 55 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.00 | 10.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .309 | 5.36 | 9.8% | 2.0% | 42 | +1.36 | 3.85 | 237 | 54 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.99 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | .276 | 4.57 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 84 | -1.42 | 3.53 | 609 | 54 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.63 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .337 | 5.23 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.60 | 4.40 | 408 | 53 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 51 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 49 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 48 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 48 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.71 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .300 | 4.39 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.87 | 478 | 47 |
| Barry Zito L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 46 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 44 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 38 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 1.49 | 5.50 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |