Luis Ortiz

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSPArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	31	27	143	4.71	4.91	17.4%	11.6%	0.8	K 16.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.92
2024	25	MLBPIT	37	15	136	3.32	3.92	19.2%	7.0%	1.0
2025	26	MLBCLE	16	16	89	4.36	4.12	25.1%	11.0%	1.3
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	16	16	99	4.37	4.46	23.5%	9.8%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCLE	12	12	74	4.52	4.62	22.9%	10.0%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCLE	10	10	59	4.71	4.83	22.2%	10.3%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo77

K%66

xwOBA vs29

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Nate Karns (age 28) · David Phelps (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.37

FIP4.46

K%23.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP99

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p7328.9%

p6625.1%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	87	376	113	28	5	86%	4.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.5%	1.3%	3.09	3.06	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	87	376	113	28	5	86%	4.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.6%	1.3%	3.09	2.22	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	140	579	155	48	21	97%	4.7	22.2%	8.8%	13.3%	4.1%	4.55	4.61	+1.3
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	29	140	579	155	48	21	97%	4.7	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.6%	4.55	3.86	+2.6
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	143	649	113	75	20	87%	4.6	16.2%	11.1%	5.1%	3.2%	4.71	4.92	+0.8
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	27	143	649	113	75	20	87%	4.6	17.4%	11.6%	5.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.91	+0.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.1%	3.32	4.07	+0.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.1%	3.32	4.07	+0.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.9%	3.32	3.92	+1.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.10	+1.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.10	+1.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.12	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	50	327	1407	279	139	42	67%	4.4	19.8%	9.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.05	4.34	+4.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	16	16	99	418	98	41	13	100%	6.2	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.37	4.46	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	78	328	75	33	11	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	3.3%	4.52	4.62	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	62	261	58	27	9	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.83	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	48	204	44	22	8	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.7%	4.92	5.06	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	74	312	72	31	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	3.3%	4.52	4.62	+0.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	59	249	55	26	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.83	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	46	194	42	21	7	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.7%	4.91	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	80	506	2161	447	217	68	76%	4.8	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.27	4.35	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	32	200	855	177	86	27	76%	4.8	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.27	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		136	106	595	2542	520	237	79	78%	4.4	20.5%	9.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.27	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	854	175	80	27	78%	4.4	20.5%	9.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.27	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 57 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.31 (+0.13)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.69%	—	×0.860	18.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×0.900	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.095	×1.100	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 114 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.74 (+0.76)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.810	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.26%	—	×1.100	7.99%
HR / BF /BF	4.06%	÷1.084	×1.200	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 10 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.66 (+0.46)K% 28.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.880	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.013	×1.100	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ABradenton Marauders · 87 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.06 (+0.83)K% 30.1% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.05%	—	×0.740	22.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.45%	—	×1.180	8.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.302	×1.300	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	23.5%	9.8%	3.2%	—	4.80	22.3%	12.1%	188	+0.34	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	69
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	69
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	68
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	68
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	68
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	67
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	66
Gary Glover R 2005 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.327	4.50	15.2%	8.3%	132	+0.30	4.02	516	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	65
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	65
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	65
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	64
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	64
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	64
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	63
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	63
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	468	62
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	62
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	88	21.2%	10.1%	1.22	4.29
Jim Ray ('65-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	88	20.5%*	10.4%*	1.14*	4.38*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10