Luis Ortiz
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 102 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.49
FIP4.54
K%22.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP103
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p7328.9%
K%
p6625.1%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB+3.9 (49%)
SI (20%)
CH (13%)
SL-1.4 (26%)
CT-2.7 (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 19 | 87 | 376 | 113 | 28 | 5 | 86% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 2.93 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 19 | 87 | 376 | 113 | 28 | 5 | 86% | 4.0 | 30.1% | 7.4% | 22.6% | 1.3% | 3.09 | 2.22 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 29 | 140 | 579 | 155 | 48 | 21 | 97% | 4.7 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.55 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 29 | 140 | 579 | 155 | 48 | 21 | 97% | 4.7 | 26.8% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 3.86 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 143 | 649 | 113 | 75 | 20 | 87% | 4.6 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 143 | 649 | 113 | 75 | 20 | 87% | 4.6 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37 | 15 | 136 | 556 | 107 | 39 | 16 | 41% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.96 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37 | 15 | 136 | 556 | 107 | 39 | 16 | 41% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.92 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 16 | 16 | 89 | 382 | 96 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 16 | 16 | 89 | 382 | 96 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.12 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 103 | 434 | 97 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 103 | 434 | 97 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 98 | 415 | 90 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 92 | 390 | 82 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 86 | 364 | 74 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 92 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 85 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 78 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 70 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 110 | 687 | 2929 | 604 | 296 | 95 | 81% | 5.1 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 32 | 200 | 852 | 176 | 86 | 28 | 81% | 5.1 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 106 | 595 | 2542 | 522 | 241 | 74 | 78% | 4.4 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.17 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 854 | 175 | 81 | 25 | 78% | 4.4 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.79 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 293 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 61 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 60 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 60 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 60 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 58 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 58 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 58 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 58 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 58 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 58 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 57 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 57 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 57 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 57 |
| Nathan Wiles R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 399 | 57 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 57 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 57 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .265 | 5.66 | 17.5% | 5.3% | 119 | +1.84 | 3.75 | 299 | 57 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 96 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 1.32 | 4.73 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |