Luis Ortiz
P
Cleveland Guardians
+1.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.48
xFIP3.83
SIERA4.14
K%22.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.4%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p7328.9%
K%
p6625.1%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB+3.9 (49%)
SI (20%)
CH (13%)
SL-1.4 (26%)
CT-2.7 (12%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 19 | 87 | 376 | 113 | 28 | 5 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 3.09 | 3.04 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 30 | 29 | 140 | 579 | 155 | 48 | 21 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 27 | 143 | 649 | 113 | 75 | 20 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37 | 15 | 136 | 556 | 107 | 39 | 16 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 16 | 16 | 89 | 382 | 96 | 42 | 12 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.02 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 101 | 42 | 13 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 102 | 42 | 14 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 97 | 41 | 13 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 92 | 41 | 13 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 95 | 399 | 87 | 40 | 13 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 81 | 39 | 13 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 75 | 38 | 13 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 69 | 36 | 12 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 69 | 32 | 12 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 62 | 31 | 12 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 106 | 595 | 2542 | 522 | 241 | 76 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.22 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 854 | 175 | 81 | 26 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.22 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.52 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 302 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 64 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 62 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 62 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 62 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 61 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 61 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 61 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 60 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 60 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.46 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | +0.11 | 4.07 | 530 | 60 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .266 | 3.90 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 160 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 60 |
| Heath Holder R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 59 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 59 |
| Trent Baker R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 59 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 59 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 59 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 59 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 59 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $3M | +1.0 | $8M | +$5M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $5M | +1.0 | $8M | +$3M |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||