Luis Ortiz — OGILVIE

Luis Ortiz P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.51

FIP4.57

K%22.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p7328.9%

p6625.1%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB+3.9 (49%)

SI (20%)

CH (13%)

SL-1.4 (26%)

CT-2.7 (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	87	376	113	28	5	86%	4.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.5%	1.3%	3.09	3.06	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	87	376	113	28	5	86%	4.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.6%	1.3%	3.09	2.22	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	140	579	155	48	21	97%	4.7	22.2%	8.8%	13.3%	4.1%	4.55	4.61	+0.5
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	29	140	579	155	48	21	97%	4.7	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.6%	4.55	3.86	+1.7
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	143	649	113	75	20	87%	4.6	16.0%	11.1%	4.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.94	-0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	143	649	113	75	20	87%	4.6	16.0%	11.1%	4.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.94	-0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	27	143	649	113	75	20	87%	4.6	17.4%	11.6%	5.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.91	-0.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.1%	3.32	4.07	+0.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.1%	3.32	4.07	+0.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	15	136	556	107	39	16	41%	3.7	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.9%	3.32	3.92	+1.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.10	+0.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.10	+0.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	16	16	89	382	96	42	12	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.12	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	50	327	1407	279	139	42	67%	4.4	19.8%	9.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.05	4.34	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CLE	1	1	8	34	8	3	1	100%	8.0	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.2%	4.51	4.57	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	103	434	96	43	14	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	98	415	90	42	14	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.82	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	390	82	40	14	100%	6.2	20.9%	10.4%	10.6%	3.6%	4.91	5.02	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	98	414	92	41	14	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	93	393	85	40	13	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.82	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	88	372	78	39	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.4%	10.6%	3.6%	4.91	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	96	606	2583	533	258	83	79%	5.0	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	32	200	853	176	85	27	79%	5.0	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		136	106	595	2542	519	237	79	78%	4.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.27	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	854	174	80	27	78%	4.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.27	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.4%	9.7%	3.2%	—	4.83	21.6%	11.5%	293	+0.26	—	—	—
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	69
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	68
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	66
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	63
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	63
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	61
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	61
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	61
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	61
Vince Velasquez R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	25.2%	7.9%	4.7%	.295	4.64	24.2%	14.3%	204	+0.08	3.26	959	60
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	60
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	60
Dylan Covey R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	27	SP-	4.52	16.4%	7.1%	3.5%	.325	3.85	18.3%	15.0%	14	-0.67	3.59	614	60
Alek Manoah R 2023 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	19.0%	14.0%	3.6%	.297	6.17	19.0%	6.5%	106	+0.92	3.08	520	60
Kyle Wright R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP-	4.41	21.9%	11.0%	3.2%	.354	5.15	19.0%	5.7%	13	+0.74	3.32	669	60
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	60
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	60
Tanner Houck R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.291	3.57	19.6%	12.7%	233	-0.55	2.27	733	59
Adrian Houser R 2020 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	17.9%	8.5%	3.1%	.318	3.96	17.6%	8.3%	371	-0.41	3.45	1,221	59
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	99	21.8%	10.0%	1.31	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54