Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 15 | 13 | 51 | 240 | 41 | 36 | 1 | 87% | 3.4 | 11.6% | 18.8% | -7.1% | 0.6% | 5.33 | 4.81 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 15 | 13 | 51 | 240 | 41 | 36 | 1 | 87% | 3.4 | 17.1% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 5.33 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 552 | 107 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 4.16 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 552 | 107 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 3.32 | 3.32 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 101 | 450 | 98 | 37 | 15 | 91% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.03 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 101 | 450 | 98 | 37 | 15 | 91% | 4.4 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 32 | 25 | 111 | 506 | 122 | 64 | 18 | 78% | 3.5 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.53 | 5.08 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 32 | 25 | 111 | 506 | 122 | 64 | 18 | 78% | 3.5 | 24.1% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 19 | 113 | 504 | 113 | 50 | 10 | 54% | 3.2 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 4.92 | 3.67 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 19 | 113 | 504 | 113 | 50 | 10 | 54% | 3.2 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 4.92 | 3.58 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 111 | 463 | 118 | 41 | 13 | 69% | 4.3 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 111 | 463 | 118 | 41 | 13 | 69% | 4.3 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 13 | 97 | 444 | 86 | 43 | 22 | 43% | 3.2 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 5.85 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 13 | 97 | 444 | 86 | 43 | 22 | 43% | 3.2 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 5.85 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 17 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 6.28 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 70 | 295 | 49 | 33 | 10 | — | — | 16.5% | 11.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.43 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 70 | 294 | 49 | 33 | 10 | — | — | 16.5% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.43 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 44 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.69 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 48 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 57 | 241 | 42 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.69 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 48 | 382 | 1655 | 317 | 168 | 57 | 36% | 2.9 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 4.65 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 25 | 200 | 866 | 166 | 88 | 30 | 36% | 2.9 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 203 | 134 | 749 | 3281 | 612 | 348 | 103 | 66% | 3.7 | 18.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.59 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 36 | 200 | 876 | 163 | 93 | 27 | 66% | 3.7 | 18.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Osvaldo Bido (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% | — | 5.56 | 17.9% | 6.8% | 125 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 73 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 70 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 68 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 66 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 65 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.45 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.70 | 3.16 | 593 | 65 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 64 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 64 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 63 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 63 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 63 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 63 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 63 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 62 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 65 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 1.51 | 5.23 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |