Joey Wentz
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA5.01
FIP4.43
xFIP4.51
SIERA4.44
K%21.8%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.3%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
CT+2.7 (27%)
CU (18%)
SL-2.1 (7%)
FB-2.6 (44%)
CH-3.2 (3%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Danville Braves | 12 | 12 | 44 | 185 | 53 | 25 | 0 | 19.5% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.59 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | 26 | 26 | 132 | 527 | 152 | 46 | 4 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 3.36 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 16 | 16 | 67 | 266 | 53 | 24 | 3 | 15.3% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 2.28 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 25 | 25 | 129 | 534 | 137 | 48 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 18 | 18 | 72 | 317 | 82 | 41 | 12 | 20.4% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 4.50 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 21 | 20 | 86 | 350 | 84 | 35 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.03 | 3.94 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 25 | 134 | 620 | 135 | 59 | 28 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 6.36 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 46 | 0 | 67 | 304 | 73 | 32 | 8 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 3.85 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 39 | 13 | 98 | 442 | 92 | 40 | 11 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 5.60 | 3.85 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 27 | — | 27 | 112 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 77 | 35 | 11 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 73 | 34 | 11 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.67 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 68 | 33 | 11 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 70 | 30 | 11 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 65 | 29 | 11 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 59 | 28 | 10 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 54 | 27 | 10 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 48 | 26 | 10 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 155 | 829 | 3545 | 738 | 379 | 99 | 20.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 37 | 200 | 855 | 178 | 91 | 24 | 20.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Wentz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.67 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 252 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 65 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 64 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 64 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 63 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 62 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 62 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 62 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 61 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 61 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 61 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 61 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 61 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 61 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 60 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.52 | 3.44 | 522 | 60 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 60 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 60 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 60 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 60 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 2.965 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.6 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$2M | ||