Mason Montgomery
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA5.00
FIP4.54
xFIP1.86
SIERA1.96
K%25.8%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%14.8%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†6570
FB Velo
p9098.7
Whiff%
p9035.8%
K%
p9030.1%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL+1.2 (16%)
FB (67%)
CU (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 20 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 27 | 27 | 124 | 500 | 171 | 43 | 11 | 26.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 2.10 | 3.56 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 29 | 124 | 537 | 144 | 60 | 20 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 3.98 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 40 | 14 | 97 | 440 | 122 | 41 | 19 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 5.83 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 66 | 0 | 55 | 243 | 78 | 28 | 6 | 30.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 56 | 243 | 77 | 27 | 8 | 31.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 73 | 26 | 8 | 31.0% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 30.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 29.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 64 | 24 | 8 | 28.9% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 28.3% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.36 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 27.7% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 27.0% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 26.3% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 25.6% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 24.8% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 176 | 75 | 420 | 1797 | 462 | 193 | 65 | 25.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.95 | 4.27 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 220 | 92 | 31 | 25.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.95 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Montgomery (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.15 | 30.3% | 19.4% | 165 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Enny Romero L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.55 | 26.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.30 | 16.4% | 11.5% | 10 | +2.75 | 3.52 | 188 | 81 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 79 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 76 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 3.1% | .337 | 4.52 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 77 | +0.51 | 3.59 | 364 | 75 |
| Grant Wolfram L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | .265 | 3.35 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 116 | -0.44 | 2.81 | 371 | 74 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 73 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 73 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 72 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.90 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 101 | +0.28 | 2.55 | 261 | 71 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 70 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.57 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.06 | 25.1% | 12.1% | 72 | +0.49 | 3.35 | 311 | 70 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 70 |
| Jake Brentz L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.99 | 15.4% | -12.7% | 24 | +3.13 | 3.86 | 235 | 70 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 70 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.26 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 175 | 70 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 70 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .302 | 3.73 | 24.1% | 13.2% | 82 | +0.03 | 2.22 | 486 | 70 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 69 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .168 | 4.82 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 56 | +0.69 | 3.70 | 229 | 69 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 5.07 | 24.6% | 16.7% | 74 | +1.74 | 3.19 | 416 | 69 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.122 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.3M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $9M | +$2M | ||