Mason Montgomery

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	40	14	97	5.83	4.39	27.7%	9.3%	0.2	K 22.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.91
2025	25	MIX2 levels	66	0	55	5.07	3.21	32.1%	11.5%	0.9	K 30.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.72
2026	26	MLBPIT	70	5	69	2.88	2.23	37.8%	8.6%	1.9
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	62	0	65	3.44	3.24	36.8%	10.0%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBPIT	60	0	63	3.25	3.20	36.6%	10.1%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBPIT	56	0	59	3.31	3.35	36.0%	10.3%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.122First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$4M2030Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form1.07 ERA (proj 3.44) · K 41.1% (proj 36.8%) · BB 6.3% (proj 10.0%) ▲▲ last 90d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsFelipe Vázquez (age 27) · Nick Mondak (age 26) · Jacob Latz (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6775vR 83

ERA3.44

FIP3.24

K%36.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%26.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p9032.5%

p9037.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.247

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.122 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$7M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$20M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	5	4	11	37	20	1	0	80%	2.1	54.1%	2.7%	51.4%	0.0%	0.84	-1.12	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	5	4	11	37	20	1	0	80%	2.1	54.1%	2.7%	51.4%	0.0%	0.84	-0.37	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	500	171	43	11	100%	4.6	26.8%	9.7%	17.0%	2.7%	2.10	3.56	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	500	171	43	11	100%	4.6	34.2%	8.6%	25.6%	2.2%	2.10	2.54	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	537	144	60	20	100%	4.3	21.8%	11.9%	10.0%	4.1%	3.98	4.99	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	124	537	144	60	20	100%	4.3	26.8%	11.2%	15.6%	3.7%	3.98	4.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	4.9%	5.83	4.91	-0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	4.9%	5.83	4.91	-0.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	27.7%	9.3%	18.4%	4.3%	5.83	4.39	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.8%	5.07	3.72	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.8%	5.07	3.72	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	32.1%	11.5%	20.6%	2.5%	5.07	3.21	+0.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	5	69	278	105	24	6	7%	1.0	37.8%	8.6%	29.1%	2.3%	2.88	2.28	+1.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	5	69	278	105	24	6	7%	1.0	37.8%	8.6%	29.1%	2.3%	2.88	2.28	+1.9
2026	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	5	69	278	105	24	6	7%	1.0	37.8%	8.6%	29.1%	2.2%	2.88	2.23	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	5	124	524	185	56	12	4%	0.9	35.3%	10.7%	24.6%	2.3%	3.84	2.73	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	62	0	65	274	101	27	8	0%	1.0	36.8%	10.0%	26.8%	2.9%	3.44	3.24	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	64	0	67	282	103	29	8	0%	1.0	36.6%	10.1%	26.5%	3.0%	3.37	3.32	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	59	0	62	263	95	27	8	0%	1.1	36.0%	10.3%	25.7%	3.2%	3.44	3.48	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	54	0	57	239	85	25	8	0%	1.1	35.3%	10.7%	24.7%	3.4%	3.59	3.69	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	60	0	63	266	97	27	7	0%	1.1	36.6%	10.1%	26.5%	2.8%	3.25	3.20	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	56	0	59	249	90	26	7	0%	1.1	36.0%	10.3%	25.7%	2.9%	3.31	3.35	+0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	51	0	54	228	81	24	7	0%	1.1	35.3%	10.7%	24.7%	3.1%	3.45	3.55	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		304	5	301	1268	453	133	34	2%	1.0	35.7%	10.5%	25.2%	2.7%	3.54	2.88	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	3	200	844	301	88	23	2%	1.0	35.7%	10.5%	25.2%	2.7%	3.54	2.88	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		237	79	480	2035	548	204	70	33%	2.0	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	3.4%	3.77	3.99	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	33	200	848	228	85	29	33%	2.0	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	3.4%	3.77	3.99	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 9 IPFIP -0.25 → 0.23 (+0.48)K% 44.1% → 37.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.12%	—	×0.860	37.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×0.900	2.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.380	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP -0.25 → 0.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 88 IPFIP 4.62 → 4.91 (+0.29)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.05%	—	×0.860	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×0.900	8.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷1.061	×1.100	4.89%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 108 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.97 (+0.80)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.99%	—	×0.810	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×1.100	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.087	×1.200	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 17 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.09 (−0.03)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.84%	—	×0.860	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.94%	—	×0.900	14.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.137	×1.100	2.81%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 70 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.21 (+1.26)K% 41.8% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.84%	—	×0.770	32.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.150	11.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.020	×1.250	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 54 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.02 (+0.78)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.810	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.100	8.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.970	×1.200	2.84%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Rays · 11 IPFIP -1.12 → 0.42 (+1.55)K% 54.1% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.05%	—	×0.680	36.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×1.250	3.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.948	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP -1.12 → 0.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.24	36.8%	10.0%	2.9%	—	3.49	36.0%	25.7%	186	+0.25	—	—	—
Felipe Vázquez L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	27	SU	2.30	30.1%	7.4%	1.5%	.326	1.83	38.1%	32.6%	60	-0.47	1.83	331	66
Nick Mondak L 2024 · 2.70 FIP	26	SU	2.70	30.9%	6.4%	2.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	153	60
Jacob Latz L 2023 · 3.06 FIP	27	SU	3.06	28.1%	9.8%	2.0%	.366	3.36	25.0%	15.5%	216	+0.30	2.39	480	60
Jake Diekman L 2014 · 2.27 FIP	27	SU	2.27	31.9%	9.6%	1.2%	.346	3.31	26.6%	15.0%	111	+1.04	2.27	592	60
Darien Núñez L 2019 · 2.48 FIP	26	SU	2.48	32.5%	11.3%	1.3%	.333	2.65	35.0%	24.6%	52	+0.17	2.48	122	59
Damaso Marte L 2002 · 2.55 FIP	27	SU	2.55	30.0%	6.7%	2.1%	.265	3.46	25.2%	14.9%	199	+0.91	2.41	495	58
Justin Wilson L 2015 · 2.49 FIP	27	SU	2.49	27.0%	8.2%	1.1%	.297	3.28	29.1%	18.1%	171	+0.79	2.49	554	57
Alex Vesia L 2023 · 3.23 FIP	27	SU	3.23	30.5%	7.1%	3.3%	.338	3.11	32.7%	22.2%	184	-0.12	1.91	408	57
Justin King L 2024 · 3.26 FIP	26	SU	3.26	29.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.346	4.16	22.4%	3.6%	65	+0.90	3.26	133	57
Amir Garrett L 2019 · 3.62 FIP	27	SU	3.62	31.7%	13.8%	2.6%	.291	3.77	28.5%	15.3%	111	+0.15	3.06	712	55
Josh Smoker L 2016 · 2.94 FIP	27	SU	2.94	30.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.399	4.28	22.8%	13.6%	116	+1.34	2.71	230	55
Dario Alvarez L 2016 · 3.70 FIP	27	SU	3.70	33.3%	8.4%	4.3%	.385	3.60	23.2%	10.8%	71	-0.10	3.47	160	55
Hayden Harris L 2024 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	30.0%	12.7%	3.0%	.398	3.09	29.1%	17.2%	102	-0.70	1.77	196	54
Robert Garcia L 2023 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	28.6%	9.9%	2.4%	.310	3.01	25.9%	18.4%	142	-0.25	2.21	471	54
A.J. Puk L 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SU	3.22	27.0%	7.1%	2.7%	.258	2.97	30.9%	24.0%	128	-0.25	2.46	381	54
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	54
Charlie Furbush L 2013 · 2.91 FIP	27	SU	2.91	28.6%	9.6%	1.8%	.256	2.79	26.1%	21.4%	64	-0.12	2.40	261	54
Erik Miller L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	26	SU	3.67	30.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.283	2.97	26.9%	13.7%	81	-0.70	2.80	262	53
Aaron Bummer L 2021 · 2.51 FIP	27	SU	2.51	31.0%	10.7%	1.2%	.283	2.59	28.2%	18.8%	140	+0.08	1.99	464	53
Phillip Diehl L 2021 · 3.71 FIP	27	SU	3.71	29.1%	5.9%	4.2%	.244	5.30	19.8%	9.0%	72	+1.59	2.57	365	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	63	35.9%	10.5%	1.10	3.58
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*
Ernesto Frieri ('17)	1.5	51	30.1%	11.1%	1.25	3.59
Brad Lidge ('12)	3.0	75	30.9%	11.1%	0.85	3.54
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*