Mason Montgomery

Mason Montgomery P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6876vR 84

ERA3.42

FIP3.25

K%34.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%24.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†7080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p9032.1%

p9038.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.252

SL+1.2 (14%)

FB (69%)

SI (20%)

CU (14%)

CH (2%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.122 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$7M	+$4M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$19M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	5	4	11	37	20	1	0	80%	2.1	54.1%	2.7%	51.4%	0.0%	0.84	-1.12	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	5	4	11	37	20	1	0	80%	2.1	54.1%	2.7%	51.4%	0.0%	0.84	-0.37	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	500	171	43	11	100%	4.6	26.8%	9.7%	17.0%	2.7%	2.10	3.56	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	500	171	43	11	100%	4.6	34.2%	8.6%	25.6%	2.2%	2.10	2.54	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	537	144	60	20	100%	4.3	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	4.1%	3.98	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	537	144	60	20	100%	4.3	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	4.1%	3.98	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	124	537	144	60	20	100%	4.3	26.8%	11.2%	15.6%	3.7%	3.98	4.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	4.9%	5.83	4.98	-0.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	4.9%	5.83	4.98	-0.5
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	14	97	440	122	41	19	35%	2.4	27.7%	9.3%	18.4%	4.3%	5.83	4.39	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.8%	5.07	3.72	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.8%	5.07	3.72	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	55	243	78	28	6	0%	0.8	32.1%	11.5%	20.6%	2.5%	5.07	3.21	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			129	5	117	496	175	53	11	4%	0.9	35.3%	10.7%	24.6%	2.2%	3.84	2.69	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	63	5	62	250	95	21	5	8%	1.0	38.0%	8.4%	29.6%	2.2%	2.77	2.14	+1.8
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	63	5	62	250	95	21	5	8%	1.0	38.0%	8.4%	29.6%	2.2%	2.77	2.14	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	PIT	63	5	62	250	95	21	5	8%	1.0	38.0%	8.4%	29.6%	2.0%	2.77	2.05	+1.9
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	PIT	63	5	62	250	95	21	5	8%	1.0	38.0%	8.4%	29.6%	2.0%	2.77	2.05	+1.9
ROS	26	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	5	23	8	2	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	10.1%	24.8%	3.3%	3.42	3.25	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	PIT	5	0	5	21	7	2	1	0%	1.0	34.9%	10.1%	24.8%	3.1%	3.29	3.12	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	67	273	103	23	6	—	—	37.7%	8.5%	29.2%	2.1%	2.83	2.23	+2.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	67	283	103	23	6	—	—	36.4%	8.2%	28.1%	2.0%	2.81	2.18	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PIT	86	0	90	381	130	39	12	0%	1.1	34.0%	10.2%	23.8%	3.0%	3.61	3.56	+1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	86	0	90	381	129	39	12	0%	1.1	33.9%	10.3%	23.6%	3.1%	3.63	3.64	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	82	0	86	364	121	38	12	0%	1.1	33.3%	10.6%	22.8%	3.3%	3.73	3.80	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	77	0	81	342	112	37	12	0%	1.1	32.6%	10.9%	21.8%	3.5%	3.90	4.01	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	PIT	72	0	76	319	108	33	12	0%	1.0	33.9%	10.4%	23.5%	3.7%	3.94	3.97	+0.5
2032	32	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	70	295	97	32	12	0%	1.1	33.1%	10.8%	22.3%	4.0%	4.11	4.23	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	PIT	82	0	86	363	124	37	10	0%	1.0	34.0%	10.2%	23.8%	2.8%	3.49	3.44	+1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	82	0	86	363	123	38	10	0%	1.0	33.9%	10.3%	23.6%	2.9%	3.50	3.51	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	78	0	82	346	115	37	10	0%	1.1	33.3%	10.6%	22.8%	3.0%	3.60	3.67	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	73	0	77	325	106	35	10	0%	1.1	32.6%	10.9%	21.8%	3.2%	3.76	3.87	+0.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	PIT	69	0	72	304	103	32	10	0%	1.0	33.9%	10.4%	23.5%	3.4%	3.79	3.82	+0.5
2032	32	MLB CTX	PIT	63	0	66	279	92	30	10	0%	1.0	33.1%	10.8%	22.3%	3.7%	3.95	4.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		580	5	591	2497	846	263	74	1%	1.0	33.9%	10.5%	23.3%	3.0%	3.69	3.20	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	2	200	845	286	89	25	1%	1.0	33.9%	10.5%	23.3%	3.0%	3.69	3.20	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		230	79	473	2007	534	201	69	34%	2.1	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	3.4%	3.77	4.01	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	33	200	849	226	85	29	34%	2.1	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	3.4%	3.77	4.01	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	30.8%	11.3%	3.5%	—	3.66	33.8%	23.4%	267	-0.56	—	—	—
Enny Romero L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	26.5%	8.6%	2.9%	.316	6.23	16.4%	11.5%	10	+2.72	3.51	188	67
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	66
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	61
Bennett Sousa L 2021 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	29.9%	10.9%	3.6%	.294	3.98	22.5%	13.1%	67	+0.06	2.59	275	61
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	61
Jakob Hernandez L 2022 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	30.7%	9.5%	5.3%	.277	5.31	22.1%	9.7%	23	+0.65	2.99	266	61
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	61
Colin Poche L 2019 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	34.7%	8.3%	4.0%	.308	4.57	26.1%	17.1%	59	+1.15	1.36	380	60
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	60
James Pazos L 2017 · 3.72 FIP	26	SU	3.72	27.1%	10.0%	3.0%	.306	4.00	18.5%	9.9%	101	+0.28	2.55	261	59
Reymin Guduan L 2018 · 3.62 FIP	26	SU	3.62	29.8%	13.7%	2.4%	.328	3.68	18.4%	7.5%	74	+0.06	3.60	268	59
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	59
Grant Wolfram L 2023 · 3.73 FIP	26	SU	3.73	24.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.265	3.04	23.3%	14.9%	163	-0.69	2.41	418	59
Williams Jerez L 2018 · 3.99 FIP	26	SU	3.99	25.0%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.51	21.7%	13.4%	77	+0.52	3.58	364	58
Ray Kerr L 2021 · 3.04 FIP	26	SU	3.04	30.3%	9.6%	2.3%	.267	3.96	27.8%	16.7%	144	+0.92	3.04	373	57
Joey Marciano L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	26	SU	3.65	24.9%	9.2%	2.7%	.301	4.64	20.1%	5.2%	102	+0.99	3.65	330	56
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	56
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	56
Ben Wereski L 2023 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	29.0%	7.4%	3.9%	.449	5.43	19.3%	9.9%	55	+1.70	3.73	132	56
José Quijada L 2022 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	30.8%	10.1%	2.9%	.211	3.66	28.2%	14.7%	59	+0.29	2.24	375	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	33.2%	10.6%	1.32	3.87
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33