Erik Miller
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 269 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.76
FIP4.18
xFIP2.46
SIERA2.78
K%24.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%12.1%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6065
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p1617.2%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL+2.8 (37%)
SI (44%)
FB (54%)
CH-2.3 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 5 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.80 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 5 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 16 | 11 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 32 | 7 | 48 | 211 | 62 | 31 | 4 | 24.4% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 3.54 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 54 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 88 | 44 | 2 | 28.9% | 18.9% | 0.9% | 2.45 | 3.57 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 73 | 10 | 67 | 284 | 87 | 38 | 7 | 30.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.72 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 40 | 0 | 33 | 145 | 27 | 18 | 0 | 17.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 1.91 | 3.23 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 14 | — | 14 | 59 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 26.7% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 20 | 88 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 29.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | 4.39 | 2.83 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 45 | 20 | 4 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 43 | 20 | 4 | 26.7% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 26.1% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SF | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 24.1% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 17 | 3 | 23.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 25 | 246 | 1053 | 280 | 162 | 14 | 26.6% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 3.00 | 3.56 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 20 | 200 | 857 | 228 | 132 | 11 | 26.6% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 3.00 | 3.56 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 26.7% | 12.2% | 2.3% | — | 4.07 | 26.7% | 14.2% | 114 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 73 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 71 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 70 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 68 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.29 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 1.7% | .405 | 4.76 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 70 | +1.47 | 2.81 | 344 | 68 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 68 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 67 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 67 |
| Will Smith L 2025 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 2.58 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 66 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 66 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 65 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 64 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 64 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 64 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 64 |
| Bennett Sousa L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.45 | 30.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .318 | 2.69 | 29.6% | 22.1% | 51 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 250 | 64 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 63 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.33 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | .329 | 4.33 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.00 | 2.70 | 230 | 63 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $5M | +$0.4M | ||