Erik Miller — OGILVIE

Erik Miller P Boston Red Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 269 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7179vR 88

ERA3.24

FIP3.41

K%30.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9036.0%

p9034.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.257

SL+2.8 (42%)

SI (48%)

FB (54%)

CH-2.3 (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	16	68	23	8	0	60%	3.2	22.9%	12.9%	10.0%	0.0%	2.25	2.80	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	16	68	23	8	0	60%	3.2	33.8%	11.8%	22.1%	0.0%	2.25	1.73	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	13	58	16	11	0	100%	2.5	27.6%	19.0%	8.6%	0.0%	1.42	3.17	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	13	58	16	11	0	100%	2.5	27.6%	19.0%	8.6%	0.0%	1.42	3.18	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	7	48	211	62	31	4	22%	1.5	24.4%	15.8%	8.6%	2.0%	3.54	4.15	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	7	48	211	62	31	4	22%	1.5	29.4%	14.7%	14.7%	1.9%	3.54	3.53	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	258	88	44	2	0%	1.2	27.3%	16.2%	11.1%	0.9%	2.45	3.36	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	258	88	44	2	0%	1.2	27.3%	16.2%	11.1%	0.9%	2.45	3.36	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	62	258	88	44	2	0%	1.2	34.1%	17.1%	17.1%	0.8%	2.45	2.81	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	73	10	67	284	87	38	7	14%	0.9	30.6%	13.4%	17.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.67	+0.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	73	10	67	284	87	38	7	14%	0.9	30.6%	13.4%	17.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.67	+0.7
2024	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	73	10	67	284	87	38	7	14%	0.9	30.6%	13.4%	17.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.56	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	33	145	27	18	0	0%	0.8	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	0.0%	1.91	3.23	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	33	145	27	18	0	0%	0.8	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	0.0%	1.91	3.23	+0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	33	145	27	18	0	0%	0.8	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	0.0%	1.91	3.10	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			161	11	144	613	179	79	10	7%	0.9	29.2%	12.9%	16.3%	1.6%	2.81	3.16	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	54	3	49	209	73	25	3	6%	0.9	34.8%	12.4%	22.4%	1.5%	2.02	2.57	+1.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	54	3	49	209	73	25	3	6%	0.9	34.8%	12.4%	22.4%	1.5%	2.02	2.57	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	BOS	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	BOS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	BOS	52	1	47	201	70	25	3	2%	0.9	34.8%	12.4%	22.4%	1.5%	2.11	2.55	+1.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	BOS	52	1	47	201	70	25	3	2%	0.9	34.8%	12.4%	22.4%	1.5%	2.11	2.55	+1.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	23	7	3	1	0%	1.1	30.9%	13.4%	17.4%	2.2%	3.24	3.41	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	7	3	0	0%	1.0	30.9%	13.4%	17.4%	2.2%	3.24	3.41	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	54	232	80	28	4	—	—	34.5%	12.1%	22.4%	1.5%	2.14	2.66	+1.3
FULL	28	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	52	221	80	28	4	—	—	36.2%	12.7%	23.5%	1.6%	2.22	2.52	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	58	0	61	257	76	35	6	0%	1.0	29.5%	13.6%	15.9%	2.2%	3.79	3.92	+0.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	57	242	70	34	6	0%	1.1	28.8%	13.9%	14.9%	2.4%	3.99	4.13	+0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	55	0	58	245	72	33	5	0%	1.1	29.5%	13.6%	15.9%	2.2%	3.79	3.92	+0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	51	0	54	228	66	32	5	0%	1.1	28.8%	13.9%	14.9%	2.4%	3.99	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		273	11	262	1109	324	147	21	4%	1.0	29.2%	13.3%	15.9%	1.9%	3.28	3.37	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		208	8	200	847	248	112	16	4%	1.0	29.2%	13.3%	15.9%	1.9%	3.28	3.37	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		263	28	289	1233	338	177	17	11%	1.1	27.4%	14.4%	13.1%	1.4%	2.77	3.38	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	19	200	854	234	123	12	11%	1.1	27.4%	14.4%	13.1%	1.4%	2.77	3.38	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	26.9%	14.0%	2.3%	—	4.02	29.2%	15.4%	118	-0.21	—	—	—
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	72
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	70
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	66
Ian Krol L 2019 · 3.28 FIP	28	SU	3.28	24.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.405	4.72	23.5%	11.4%	70	+1.44	2.80	344	66
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	66
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	65
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	65
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	64
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	64
Justin King L 2023 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	29.7%	19.7%	0.9%	.361	3.83	24.7%	8.9%	100	+0.27	3.26	130	64
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	63
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	63
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	61
Daniel Stumpf L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	28	SU	3.56	25.2%	8.8%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	1.84	238	61
Bennett Sousa L 2023 · 3.46 FIP	28	SU	3.46	28.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.318	3.26	27.3%	17.7%	76	-0.20	2.59	275	61
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	60
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	60
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	59
Rex Brothers L 2015 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	27.2%	23.5%	0.5%	.286	4.05	26.4%	9.1%	64	+0.00	3.10	205	59
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	28.4%	13.9%	0.89	3.95
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87