Erik Miller
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 269 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8695vR 104
ERA3.54
FIP3.72
K%28.7%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p9034.4%
K%
p9031.4%
xwOBA vs
p670.295
SL+2.8 (41%)
SI (43%)
FB (53%)
CH-2.3 (6%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 60% | 3.2 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.80 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 60% | 3.2 | 33.8% | 11.8% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 1.73 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 5 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 27.6% | 19.0% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.17 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 5 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 27.6% | 19.0% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.18 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 7 | 48 | 211 | 62 | 31 | 4 | 22% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 4.11 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 7 | 48 | 211 | 62 | 31 | 4 | 22% | 1.5 | 29.4% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 3.53 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 88 | 44 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.9% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 0.9% | 2.45 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 88 | 44 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.1% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 2.45 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 73 | 10 | 67 | 284 | 87 | 38 | 7 | 14% | 0.9 | 30.6% | 13.4% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 73 | 10 | 67 | 284 | 87 | 38 | 7 | 14% | 0.9 | 30.6% | 13.4% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 33 | 145 | 27 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 17.2% | 12.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.91 | 3.23 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 33 | 145 | 27 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 1.91 | 3.10 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 2 | 29 | 129 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 31.4% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 3.07 | 3.34 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 44 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 44 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 66 | 283 | 85 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 30.1% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 3.33 | 3.55 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 64 | 269 | 85 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 31.6% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 71 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 54 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 65 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 68 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 62 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 282 | 10 | 273 | 1160 | 321 | 167 | 24 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.67 | 3.71 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 207 | 7 | 200 | 849 | 235 | 122 | 18 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.67 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 243 | 27 | 269 | 1153 | 310 | 178 | 16 | 11% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 15.5% | 11.4% | 1.4% | 2.94 | 3.56 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 20 | 200 | 857 | 231 | 133 | 12 | 11% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 15.5% | 11.4% | 1.4% | 2.94 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 27.2% | 14.3% | 2.3% | — | 4.39 | 27.5% | 12.4% | 118 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 71 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 69 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 68 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 67 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 66 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 66 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 1.7% | .405 | 4.60 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 70 | +1.28 | 2.72 | 344 | 65 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 65 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 64 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 63 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.09 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.07 | 3.10 | 205 | 63 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 63 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 62 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 62 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 62 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 61 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.82 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 61 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 61 |
| Chris Murphy L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 447 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 27.3% | 14.8% | 0.92 | 4.19 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |