Robert Garcia
P
Texas Rangers
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 30
LHP
6'4" / 236 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.67
FIP3.72
xFIP5.30
SIERA5.90
K%26.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%18.5%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p6725.3%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB+2.5 (44%)
CH (32%)
SL-0.8 (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 13 | 10 | 54 | 272 | 48 | 28 | 10 | 12.0% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 10.17 | 6.54 | -1.0 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 23 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 49 | 19 | 1 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 1.94 | 3.47 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 35 | 0 | 49 | 212 | 66 | 21 | 5 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 33 | 0 | 48 | 216 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 5.62 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 46 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 64 | 28 | 5 | 21.6% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 56 | 1 | 73 | 302 | 95 | 32 | 7 | 29.0% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.21 | 3.37 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 73 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 29.9% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 4.09 | 2.09 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 71 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 68 | 20 | 8 | 25.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 2.95 | 3.58 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 9 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TEX | 21 | — | 21 | 88 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 26.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 3.73 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 14 | 2 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 2.70 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 359 | 11 | 467 | 2016 | 462 | 213 | 56 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.03 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 5 | 200 | 864 | 198 | 91 | 24 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robert Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.73 | 26.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.10 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 160 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 77 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 76 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 75 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.89 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.6% | .256 | 4.17 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.28 | 2.89 | 391 | 75 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 74 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2025 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 74 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 73 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.23 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.83 | 223 | 73 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 73 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 72 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 72 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 2.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.44 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .281 | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 30 | +1.83 | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 0.5% | .301 | 3.67 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 36 | +0.82 | 2.34 | 202 | 72 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 72 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.78 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 0.4% | .306 | 4.91 | 16.4% | 3.3% | 98 | +2.13 | 2.71 | 181 | 72 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 71 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 71 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $6M | +$0.6M | ||