Robert Garcia

P Texas Rangers

Age 31 LHP 6'4" / 236 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	73	62	4.09	2.11	30.7%	5.8%	1.8	K 29.9% · BB 6.0% · FIP 2.21
2025	29	MLBTEX	71	64	2.95	3.54	25.3%	7.4%	0.8
2026	30	MIX2 levels	21	20	2.29	3.81	17.3%	12.0%	0.2	K 15.5% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.12
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	49	51	3.72	3.91	23.9%	8.1%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBTEX	33	35	3.99	4.17	23.1%	8.5%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBTEX	23	24	4.26	4.45	22.2%	8.9%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs60

FB Velo41

K%10

CompsNick Hagadone (age 31) · George Sherrill (age 31) · Raul Valdes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.72

FIP3.91

K%23.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	10	54	272	48	28	10	77%	4.2	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	5.1%	10.17	6.54	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	10	54	272	48	28	10	77%	4.2	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	3.7%	10.17	5.29	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	46	193	49	19	1	0%	2.0	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	0.7%	1.94	3.47	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	46	193	49	19	1	0%	2.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.5%	0.5%	1.94	2.50	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	0	49	212	66	21	5	0%	1.4	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.35	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	0	49	212	66	21	5	0%	1.4	31.1%	9.9%	21.2%	2.4%	4.93	3.02	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	33	0	48	216	60	22	7	0%	1.5	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	4.1%	5.62	4.85	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	33	0	48	216	60	22	7	0%	1.5	27.8%	10.2%	17.6%	3.2%	5.62	3.87	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	261	64	28	5	0%	1.4	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	2.2%	3.75	3.99	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	261	64	28	5	0%	1.4	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	1.9%	3.75	3.44	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	73	302	95	32	7	2%	1.3	28.6%	9.9%	18.7%	2.4%	3.21	3.26	+1.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	1	73	302	95	32	7	2%	1.3	31.5%	10.6%	20.9%	2.3%	3.21	3.06	+1.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	62	257	79	15	4	0%	0.8	29.9%	6.0%	23.9%	1.6%	4.09	2.21	+1.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	62	257	79	15	4	0%	0.8	29.9%	6.0%	23.9%	1.6%	4.09	2.21	+1.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	73	0	62	257	79	15	4	0%	0.8	30.7%	5.8%	24.9%	1.6%	4.09	2.11	+1.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	71	0	64	269	68	20	8	0%	0.9	25.3%	7.4%	17.8%	2.8%	2.95	3.43	+0.9
2025	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	71	0	64	269	68	20	8	0%	0.9	25.3%	7.4%	17.8%	2.8%	2.95	3.43	+0.9
2025	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	71	0	64	269	68	20	8	0%	0.9	25.3%	7.4%	17.8%	3.0%	2.95	3.54	+0.8
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	20	75	13	9	1	0%	0.9	15.5%	12.7%	2.8%	1.3%	2.29	4.12	+0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	20	75	13	9	1	0%	0.9	15.5%	12.7%	2.8%	1.3%	2.29	4.12	+0.1
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	20	75	13	9	1	0%	0.9	17.3%	12.0%	5.3%	1.3%	2.29	3.81	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			188	0	174	718	187	54	16	0%	0.9	26.0%	7.5%	18.5%	2.2%	3.46	3.08	+3.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	49	0	51	215	51	17	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.91	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	35	0	37	155	36	13	4	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	2.8%	3.99	4.17	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	24	0	26	108	24	10	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.26	4.45	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	33	0	35	148	34	13	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	2.8%	3.99	4.17	+0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	23	0	24	101	23	9	3	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.26	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	0	233	967	244	76	23	0%	1.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	2.4%	3.62	3.29	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	0	200	829	209	65	20	0%	1.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	2.4%	3.62	3.29	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		371	11	478	2057	466	212	57	3%	1.3	22.7%	10.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.01	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	5	200	860	195	89	24	3%	1.3	22.7%	10.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.01	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 41 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.30 (+0.34)K% 35.4% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.43%	—	×0.860	30.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.57%	—	×0.900	11.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 58 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.99 (+0.39)K% 24.5% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.880	21.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.050	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.032	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 48 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.85 (+1.03)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.810	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.100	11.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 49 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.35 (+1.33)K% 31.1% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.13%	—	×0.770	23.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.150	11.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷0.884	×1.250	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 24 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.82 (+0.90)K% 29.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.81%	—	×0.740	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×1.180	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.051	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 22 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.23 (+1.08)K% 20.2% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.680	13.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×1.250	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 54 IPFIP 4.93 → 6.54 (+1.61)K% 17.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.680	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.250	12.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.15%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 6.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robert Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	23.9%	8.1%	2.6%	—	4.29	22.7%	14.1%	62	+0.38	—	—	—
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	78
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	77
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	76
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	76
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	76
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	76
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	75
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	74
Damaso Marte L 2006 · 3.33 FIP	31	SU	3.33	24.7%	9.8%	2.0%	.284	3.05	26.2%	17.3%	124	-0.28	2.41	495	74
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	169	74
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	73
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	73
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	72
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	72
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	72
Jared Koenig L 2024 · 2.79 FIP	30	SU	2.79	23.8%	7.2%	1.4%	.279	2.99	23.6%	15.9%	86	+0.20	2.79	475	71
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	71
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	71
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	48	24.9%	8.3%	0.95	3.64
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Todd Worrell ('97)	1.7	55	23.4%	7.5%	0.95	3.58
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Pedro Báez ('22)	1.8	60	25.3%	8.3%	0.99	3.08
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*