A.J. Puk
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 31
LHP
6'7" / 248 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA3.62
FIP3.68
xFIP2.99
SIERA2.34
K%27.7%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%19.3%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p9031.8%
K%
p9029.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.262
SI (1%)
SL (37%)
FB-0.8 (63%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 27 | 24 | 125 | 533 | 184 | 48 | 3 | 27.2% | 10.1% | 0.7% | 4.03 | 2.46 | +4.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 4 | 37 | 151 | 51 | 15 | 8 | — | — | — | 4.42 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 41 | 4 | 62 | 291 | 74 | 25 | 13 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 6.10 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 62 | 0 | 66 | 281 | 76 | 20 | 7 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.12 | 3.20 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 61 | 0 | 59 | 253 | 82 | 12 | 11 | 32.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.94 | 3.21 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66 | 4 | 75 | 309 | 95 | 26 | 5 | 29.9% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 2.63 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 8 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 19 | — | 19 | 80 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.61 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 72 | 22 | 7 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 27.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 62 | 21 | 7 | 26.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 57 | 20 | 7 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 38 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 293 | 36 | 432 | 1853 | 525 | 156 | 52 | 28.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.32 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 17 | 200 | 857 | 243 | 72 | 24 | 28.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Puk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.61 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | — | 3.85 | 27.6% | 18.8% | 173 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.76 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.76 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.14 | 1.56 | 219 | 71 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 69 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.64 | 30.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% | .207 | 3.79 | 28.5% | 17.9% | 32 | +1.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 69 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.00 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 455 | 67 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 67 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .312 | 3.37 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.10 | 2.32 | 455 | 65 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.82 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.23 | 2.37 | 296 | 65 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 64 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 64 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 63 |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 63 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 62 |
| Nik Turley L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 29.2% | 12.2% | 2.6% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 313 | 61 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .364 | 2.52 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.63 | 2.07 | 363 | 61 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 61 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 61 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 60 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 60 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 58 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 58 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2019
Service 5.721 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $1M | $1M | +$0.0M | ||