A.J. Puk — OGILVIE

A.J. Puk P ACL D-backs

Age 31 LHP 6'7" / 248 lbs ROK peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 97

ERA3.38

FIP3.38

K%30.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%22.9%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†7070

SI (1%)

SL (37%)

FB-0.8 (63%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	125	533	184	48	3	89%	4.6	27.2%	10.1%	17.1%	0.7%	4.03	2.46	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	125	533	184	48	3	89%	4.6	34.5%	9.0%	25.5%	0.6%	4.03	1.62	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	4	37	151	51	15	8	14%	1.3	33.8%	9.9%	23.8%	5.3%	4.42	4.41	+0.1
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	4	37	151	51	15	8	14%	1.3	33.8%	9.9%	23.8%	5.3%	4.42	4.38	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	62	291	74	25	13	10%	1.5	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	5.2%	6.10	5.14	-0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	4	62	291	74	25	13	10%	1.5	25.4%	8.6%	16.8%	4.5%	6.10	4.65	-0.1
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	62	0	66	281	76	20	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.1%	19.9%	2.7%	3.12	3.22	+1.1
2022	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	62	0	66	281	76	20	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.1%	19.9%	2.5%	3.12	3.08	+1.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	59	253	82	12	11	0%	1.0	32.2%	4.5%	27.7%	4.3%	3.94	3.34	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	59	253	82	12	11	0%	1.0	32.2%	4.5%	27.7%	4.3%	3.94	3.34	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	59	253	82	12	11	0%	1.0	32.4%	4.7%	27.7%	4.3%	3.94	3.35	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	66	4	75	309	95	26	5	6%	1.1	29.9%	8.8%	21.1%	1.8%	3.24	2.68	+1.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	66	4	75	309	95	26	5	6%	1.1	29.9%	8.8%	21.1%	1.8%	3.24	2.68	+1.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	66	4	75	309	95	26	5	6%	1.1	30.7%	8.4%	22.3%	1.6%	3.24	2.47	+1.9
2025	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	8	0	8	35	12	2	2	0%	1.0	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	5.7%	3.38	4.07	+0.0
2025	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	8	0	8	35	12	2	2	0%	1.0	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	5.7%	3.38	4.07	+0.0
2025	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	8	0	8	35	12	2	2	0%	1.0	34.3%	5.7%	28.6%	5.7%	3.38	4.10	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			212	4	227	964	283	70	26	2%	1.1	29.4%	7.3%	22.1%	2.7%	3.53	3.02	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	5	3	5	17	4	2	0	60%	0.9	—	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	5	3	5	17	4	2	0	60%	0.9	—	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	ROK RAW	ARI	3	3	3	9	2	0	0	100%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	ARI	2	0	2	8	2	2	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	58	247	74	20	7	0%	1.0	29.8%	8.1%	21.7%	3.0%	3.53	3.63	+0.7
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	227	66	19	7	0%	1.1	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	3.3%	3.76	3.91	+0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	ARI	18	0	19	80	24	7	2	0%	1.1	29.8%	8.1%	21.7%	3.0%	3.53	3.63	+0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	27	0	28	118	34	10	4	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	3.3%	3.76	3.91	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		256	4	274	1161	341	87	32	2%	1.1	29.4%	7.5%	21.9%	2.8%	3.55	3.09	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	3	200	849	249	64	23	2%	1.1	29.4%	7.5%	21.9%	2.8%	3.55	3.09	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		298	39	437	1870	529	158	53	13%	1.5	28.3%	8.4%	19.9%	2.8%	4.06	3.34	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	18	200	856	242	72	24	13%	1.5	28.3%	8.4%	19.9%	2.8%	4.06	3.34	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Puk (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.38	30.6%	7.7%	2.7%	—	3.76	29.4%	21.1%	112	+0.38	—	—	—
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	69
Boone Logan L 2016 · 2.58 FIP	31	SU	2.58	30.5%	8.0%	1.9%	.207	3.74	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.16	2.58	113	68
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	67
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	66
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	65
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	64
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	64
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	63
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	62
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	61
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	61
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	61
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	60
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	59
Nik Turley L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	31	SU	3.58	29.2%	12.2%	2.5%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	313	59
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	59
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	56
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	56
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	55
Brett Cecil L 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	23.8%	4.7%	2.7%	.314	5.57	12.1%	-0.6%	33	+2.40	1.96	191	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	29.8%	8.1%	1.16	3.55
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46