Caleb Thielbar
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 39
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8695vR 104
ERA3.59
FIP3.72
K%26.3%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%18.8%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p9029.7%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+3.8 (40%)
CT (23%)
CU (24%)
SL (12%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 31 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.55 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 31 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 2.55 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 221 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 16.6% | 1.7% | 2.05 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 221 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 2.3% | 20.8% | 1.4% | 2.05 | 2.26 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 51 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 94 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 20.7% | 3.0% | 3.22 | 3.24 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 51 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 94 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.5% | 5.0% | 24.5% | 2.2% | 3.22 | 2.47 | — |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.22 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 21.8% | 3.0% | 3.23 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 21.8% | 3.0% | 3.23 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 81 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.7% | 6.9% | 25.7% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 2.33 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 81 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.7% | 6.9% | 25.8% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 2.34 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 5.8% | 2.86 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.6% | 5.2% | 25.4% | 5.2% | 2.86 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 50 | 227 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 50 | 227 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.6% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 38 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 67 | 0 | 58 | 220 | 56 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 2.64 | 2.86 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 38 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 67 | 0 | 58 | 220 | 56 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 2.3% | 2.64 | 2.91 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 33 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 37 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 20.2% | 5.9% | 4.08 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 7.5% | 18.8% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 7.5% | 18.8% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 39 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 54 | 233 | 66 | 20 | 11 | — | — | 28.2% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 4.6% | 3.85 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 39 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 54 | 226 | 66 | 20 | 11 | — | — | 29.1% | 8.9% | 20.1% | 4.8% | 3.92 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 5.16 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | CHC | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 5.16 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 451 | 0 | 426 | 1768 | 481 | 137 | 57 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 3.3% | 3.78 | 3.57 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 831 | 226 | 64 | 27 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 3.3% | 3.78 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 479 | 0 | 501 | 2055 | 518 | 144 | 55 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 7.0% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.16 | 3.34 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 821 | 207 | 57 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 7.0% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.16 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Thielbar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.86 | 24.5% | 7.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.96 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 120 | +1.10 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.44 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.51 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 37 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.72 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.35 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.63 | 3.72 | 164 | 37 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 34 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 34 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.59 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 215 | 30 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 30 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 28 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 27 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 26 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 25 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 22 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 22 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 21 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 21 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 18 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 5 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 4 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 1.49 | 4.41 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |