Caleb Thielbar

P Chicago Cubs

Age 40 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	37	MIX2 levels	61	50	5.19	3.97	25.6%	10.1%	0.3	K 24.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.84
2025	38	MLBCHC	67	58	2.64	2.91	25.5%	5.5%	1.1
2026	39	MIX2 levels	59	51	4.76	4.41	28.6%	7.4%	0.1	K 28.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.57
2027PROJ	40	MLBCHC	47	49	4.10	4.19	26.1%	7.0%	0.2
2028PROJ	41	MLBCHC	25	26	4.41	4.62	25.0%	7.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%84

xwOBA vs36

FB Velo33

Form6.50 ERA (proj 4.10) · K 23.4% (proj 26.1%) · BB 6.5% (proj 7.0%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsJuan Antonio Pena (age 41) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39) · Erubiel Gonzalez (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.10

FIP4.19

K%26.1%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%19.1%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p7328.9%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	49	0	46	171	39	10	4	0%	0.9	22.8%	5.8%	17.0%	2.3%	1.76	3.19	+0.7
2013	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	49	0	46	171	39	10	4	0%	0.9	22.8%	5.8%	17.0%	2.3%	1.76	3.19	+0.7
2014	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	54	0	48	206	35	15	3	0%	0.9	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	1.4%	3.40	3.38	+0.7
2014	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	54	0	48	206	35	15	3	0%	0.9	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	1.5%	3.40	3.39	+0.7
2015	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	49	214	31	20	2	0%	1.1	11.8%	10.8%	1.0%	1.2%	2.55	4.15	+0.2
2015	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	49	214	31	20	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	9.3%	5.1%	0.9%	2.55	3.59	+0.6
2018	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	221	51	5	3	0%	1.5	19.0%	2.4%	16.6%	1.6%	2.05	2.68	—
2018	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	221	51	5	3	0%	1.5	23.1%	2.3%	20.8%	1.4%	2.05	2.26	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	51	0	78	319	94	16	7	0%	1.5	25.9%	5.3%	20.7%	2.7%	3.22	3.05	—
2019	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	51	0	78	319	94	16	7	0%	1.5	29.5%	5.0%	24.5%	2.2%	3.22	2.47	—
2020	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	17	0	20	82	22	9	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.0%	15.9%	0.0%	2.25	2.22	+0.6
2020	33	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	17	0	20	82	22	9	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.0%	15.9%	0.0%	2.25	2.25	+0.6
2021	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	64	266	77	19	8	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.1%	21.8%	3.0%	3.23	3.20	+1.0
2021	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	64	266	77	19	8	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.1%	21.8%	3.0%	3.23	3.21	+1.0
2022	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	60	248	81	17	5	0%	0.9	32.7%	6.9%	25.7%	2.0%	3.43	2.34	+1.6
2022	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	60	248	81	17	5	0%	0.9	32.7%	6.9%	25.8%	2.0%	3.43	2.34	+1.6
2023	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	35	134	41	7	7	0%	0.9	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	5.8%	2.86	4.39	+0.1
2023	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	35	134	41	7	7	0%	0.9	30.6%	5.2%	25.4%	5.2%	2.86	3.97	+0.2
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	2.8%	5.19	3.84	+0.4
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	2.8%	5.19	3.84	+0.4
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	25.6%	10.1%	15.4%	3.1%	5.19	3.97	+0.3
2025	38	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.64	2.94	+1.1
2025	38	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.64	2.94	+1.1
2025	38	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.3%	2.64	2.91	+1.1
2026	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	51	217	62	16	11	0%	0.9	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	5.4%	4.76	4.57	-0.0
2026	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	51	217	62	16	11	0%	0.9	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	5.4%	4.76	4.57	-0.0
2026	39	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	51	217	62	16	11	0%	0.9	28.6%	7.4%	21.2%	5.1%	4.76	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			472	0	428	1758	463	125	49	0%	0.9	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	2.8%	3.45	3.30	+6.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	40	MLB	CHC	47	0	49	207	54	15	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	3.7%	4.10	4.19	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	41	MLB MLE	CHC	25	0	26	111	28	9	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	4.1%	4.41	4.62	-0.0
2028	41	MLB CTX	CHC	25	0	26	110	27	8	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	4.1%	4.41	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		497	0	454	1869	491	134	54	0%	0.9	26.3%	7.1%	19.1%	2.9%	3.50	3.36	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		219	0	200	823	216	59	24	0%	0.9	26.3%	7.1%	19.1%	2.9%	3.50	3.36	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		608	0	617	2525	617	173	66	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.8%	17.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.33	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	819	200	56	21	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.8%	17.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.33	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 78 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.05 (+0.60)K% 29.5% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.47%	—	×0.880	25.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.02%	—	×1.050	5.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.899	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAErie SeaWolves · 38 IPFIP 1.40 → 1.90 (+0.50)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.810	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.08%	—	×1.100	2.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.112	×1.200	0.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 19 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.14 (+0.49)K% 14.3% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.880	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.60%	—	×1.050	2.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.893	×1.100	3.20%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 44 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.15 (+0.31)K% 13.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.40%	—	×0.880	11.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.050	10.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.919	×1.100	1.23%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Caleb Thielbar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	26.1%	7.0%	3.7%	—	4.62	25.0%	17.3%	26	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	27
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	27
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	25
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	46	26.2%	7.8%	1.14	3.56
Jake McGee ('22)	2.9	48	26.0%	6.6%	1.10	3.71
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Jason Motte ('17)	2.0	50	23.0%	7.7%	1.11	3.30
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Thielbar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	26.1%	7.0%	3.7%	—	4.62	25.0%	17.3%	26	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	27
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	27
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	25
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	24

Caleb Thielbar

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps