Caleb Thielbar
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 39
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA3.86
FIP3.89
xFIP3.90
SIERA3.29
K%24.9%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%17.4%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.247
FB+3.8 (53%)
CT (19%)
CU (22%)
SL (5%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 44 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 31 | 20 | 2 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 31 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 39 | 0 | 57 | 221 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.05 | 2.66 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 51 | 0 | 78 | 319 | 94 | 16 | 7 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.12 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 26.8% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.22 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.23 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 68 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 81 | 17 | 5 | 32.7% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 3.43 | 2.26 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 40 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 2.86 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 61 | 0 | 50 | 227 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 24.5% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 38 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 67 | 0 | 58 | 220 | 56 | 12 | 5 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.64 | 2.94 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 7 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | CHC | 15 | — | 15 | 64 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 39 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 21 | 91 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 2.88 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 453 | 0 | 478 | 1958 | 490 | 135 | 49 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 3.25 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 819 | 205 | 56 | 21 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 3.25 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Thielbar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 23.7% | 15.7% | 39 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.21 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 156 | 78 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.52 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | .264 | 3.90 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 322 | +0.38 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 58 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 44 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 44 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 43 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.77 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.69 | 3.55 | 164 | 37 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 37 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.43 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 36 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.70 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.93 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.23 | 3.59 | 444 | 36 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 32 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 31 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.26 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% | .293 | 3.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 123 | 31 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.20 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.1% | .264 | 5.70 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 2.03 | 133 | 30 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.39 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.01 | 215 | 29 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 29 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 29 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 28 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 27 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 27 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 26 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.