Caleb Thielbar — OGILVIE

Caleb Thielbar P Chicago Cubs

Age 39 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.35

FIP3.49

K%26.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%19.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p8829.2%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+3.8 (39%)

CT (21%)

CU (26%)

SL (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	49	214	31	20	2	0%	1.1	11.8%	10.8%	1.0%	1.2%	2.55	4.15	+0.2
2015	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	49	214	31	20	2	0%	1.1	14.5%	9.3%	5.1%	0.9%	2.55	3.59	+0.6
2018	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	221	51	5	3	0%	1.5	19.0%	2.4%	16.6%	1.6%	2.05	2.68	—
2018	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	221	51	5	3	0%	1.5	23.1%	2.3%	20.8%	1.4%	2.05	2.26	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	51	0	78	319	94	16	7	0%	1.5	25.9%	5.3%	20.7%	2.7%	3.22	3.05	—
2019	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	51	0	78	319	94	16	7	0%	1.5	29.5%	5.0%	24.5%	2.2%	3.22	2.47	—
2020	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	17	0	20	82	22	9	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.0%	15.9%	0.0%	2.25	2.22	+0.6
2020	33	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	17	0	20	82	22	9	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.0%	15.9%	0.0%	2.25	2.25	+0.6
2021	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	64	266	77	19	8	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.1%	21.8%	3.0%	3.23	3.20	+1.0
2021	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	64	266	77	19	8	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.1%	21.8%	3.0%	3.23	3.21	+1.0
2022	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	60	248	81	17	5	0%	0.9	32.7%	6.9%	25.7%	2.0%	3.43	2.34	+1.6
2022	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	60	248	81	17	5	0%	0.9	32.7%	6.9%	25.8%	2.0%	3.43	2.34	+1.6
2023	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	35	134	41	7	7	0%	0.9	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	5.8%	2.86	4.39	+0.1
2023	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	35	134	41	7	7	0%	0.9	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	5.8%	2.86	4.39	+0.1
2023	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	35	134	41	7	7	0%	0.9	30.6%	5.2%	25.4%	5.2%	2.86	3.97	+0.2
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	2.8%	5.19	3.84	+0.4
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	2.8%	5.19	3.84	+0.4
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	50	227	58	23	7	0%	0.8	25.6%	10.1%	15.4%	3.1%	5.19	3.97	+0.3
2025	38	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.64	2.94	+1.1
2025	38	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.64	2.94	+1.1
2025	38	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	67	0	58	220	56	12	5	0%	0.9	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.3%	2.64	2.91	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			365	0	330	1365	386	100	42	0%	0.9	28.3%	7.3%	21.0%	3.1%	3.68	3.32	+4.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	39	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	55	0	47	201	59	16	11	0%	0.9	29.1%	7.7%	21.4%	5.8%	4.79	4.81	-0.1
YTD	39	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	55	0	47	201	59	16	11	0%	0.9	29.1%	7.7%	21.4%	5.8%	4.79	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	39	A+ RAW	CHC	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
2026	39	MLB RAW	CHC	54	0	46	196	57	15	11	0%	0.9	29.1%	7.7%	21.4%	5.6%	4.89	4.69	-0.1
SO FAR	39	MLB RAW	CHC	54	0	46	196	57	15	11	0%	0.9	29.1%	7.7%	21.4%	5.6%	4.89	4.69	-0.1
ROS	39	MLB MLE	CHC	4	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.1	26.8%	7.2%	19.6%	3.2%	3.35	3.49	+0.1
ROS	39	MLB CTX	CHC	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	26.8%	7.2%	19.6%	3.2%	3.35	3.49	+0.1
2026 TOT	39	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	52	220	64	17	12	—	—	29.1%	7.9%	21.2%	5.3%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
FULL	39	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	51	213	64	17	12	—	—	30.1%	8.1%	21.9%	5.4%	4.75	4.58	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	CHC	44	0	46	194	49	15	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.62	-0.0
2027	40	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	43	13	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		407	0	374	1551	433	115	49	0%	0.9	27.9%	7.4%	20.5%	3.2%	3.75	3.43	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		217	0	200	829	231	61	26	0%	0.9	27.9%	7.4%	20.5%	3.2%	3.75	3.43	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		501	0	519	2132	540	148	59	0%	1.0	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	2.8%	3.26	3.35	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		193	0	200	822	208	57	23	0%	1.0	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	2.8%	3.26	3.35	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Thielbar (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	24.6%	7.0%	2.9%	—	4.62	25.2%	17.3%	46	+0.73	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	80
Fernando Rodney R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	39	SU	3.43	26.1%	12.0%	1.9%	.288	3.54	25.4%	14.2%	167	+0.11	2.69	295	37
Joaquín Benoit R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	39	SU	3.72	25.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.258	4.48	21.6%	11.7%	50	+0.76	3.58	164	37
Jason Grilli R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	39	SU	4.13	32.3%	12.4%	4.0%	.264	5.58	26.1%	16.3%	40	+1.45	2.05	133	35
Horacio Ramirez L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	39	SU	4.65	5.7%	6.0%	2.3%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	199	33
Darren O'Day R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	39	SU	3.59	27.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	215	30
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	29
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	28
Peter Moylan R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	39	SU	4.77	17.8%	11.6%	3.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	174	27
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	24
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	23
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	23
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	21
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	21
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	20
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	18
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	6
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	50	24.8%	7.4%	1.34	4.05
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19