Aaron Bummer
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8392vR 101
ERA3.92
FIP3.58
K%22.4%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%14.7%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.5
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.386
CT (12%)
FB (47%)
SI (39%)
CU (23%)
SL-0.6 (18%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 4.86 | 3.05 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 4.86 | 2.20 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 58 | 1 | 71 | 295 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 3.68 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 58 | 1 | 71 | 295 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 65 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 0.4% | 3.47 | 2.34 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 65 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 0.4% | 3.47 | 2.19 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 75 | 294 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 2.15 | 3.04 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 75 | 294 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 2.99 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.8% | 13.2% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.96 | 1.66 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.8% | 13.2% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.96 | 1.71 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 62 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 75 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.0% | 10.7% | 20.2% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 2.50 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 62 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 75 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.0% | 10.7% | 20.2% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 2.51 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 2.83 | 2.92 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 1.6% | 2.83 | 2.93 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 61 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 78 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 16.9% | 1.4% | 6.79 | 2.99 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 61 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 78 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | 6.79 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 56 | 0 | 55 | 244 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 0.8% | 3.58 | 1.99 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 56 | 0 | 55 | 244 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 0.8% | 3.58 | 1.94 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 42 | 2 | 54 | 235 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 16.2% | 1.3% | 3.81 | 2.67 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 42 | 2 | 54 | 235 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 16.2% | 1.3% | 3.81 | 2.66 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 25 | 1 | 21 | 103 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 4% | 0.9 | 16.9% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 7.17 | 7.60 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ATL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.58 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ATL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.58 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 59 | 262 | 55 | 22 | 12 | — | — | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 5.09 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 53 | 224 | 55 | 22 | 12 | — | — | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 5.4% | 5.67 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 568 | 2 | 568 | 2437 | 595 | 221 | 51 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 3.33 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 200 | 1 | 200 | 859 | 210 | 78 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 3.33 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 493 | 4 | 509 | 2192 | 540 | 210 | 36 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 3.85 | 3.14 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 2 | 200 | 861 | 212 | 82 | 14 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 3.85 | 3.14 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Bummer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.31 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | — | 4.59 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 133 | +1.28 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 80 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 76 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.92 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.40 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 405 | 74 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 73 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.05 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .352 | 3.71 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.05 | 117 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 73 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 72 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 72 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 72 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.91 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +1.08 | 2.42 | 129 | 71 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 71 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.01 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 1.5% | .294 | 3.28 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 113 | +0.27 | 2.93 | 478 | 70 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.89 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.34 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.45 | 2.43 | 114 | 69 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 69 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 69 |
| J.P. Howell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.15 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 62 | +0.56 | 3.15 | 106 | 68 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 67 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.26 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |