Aaron Bummer
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.9
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.94
FIP3.37
xFIP4.80
SIERA4.08
K%24.3%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%17.1%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
CT (11%)
FB (44%)
SI (36%)
CU (26%)
SL-0.6 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 15 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 4.86 | 3.05 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 58 | 1 | 71 | 295 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 3.68 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 68 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 65 | 20 | 1 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 0.4% | 3.47 | 2.35 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 75 | 294 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 2.15 | 3.03 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.96 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 62 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 75 | 26 | 3 | 31.0% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 3.51 | 2.45 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 34 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 2.83 | 3.01 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 61 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 78 | 33 | 4 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 6.79 | 2.99 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 56 | 0 | 55 | 244 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 2.03 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 42 | 2 | 54 | 235 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 3.81 | 2.67 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 7 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ATL | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 3.87 | 3.41 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 50 | 217 | 51 | 17 | 5 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 4.02 | 3.07 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.80 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 42 | 15 | 4 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 475 | 3 | 493 | 2114 | 527 | 199 | 29 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 2.94 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 214 | 81 | 12 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 2.94 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Bummer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.41 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.9% | — | 3.81 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 137 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 75 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 74 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 74 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.90 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.35 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.55 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 71 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 70 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 69 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.15 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .294 | 3.23 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 113 | +0.08 | 2.93 | 478 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 69 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.33 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.43 | 2.43 | 114 | 68 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 68 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 68 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 67 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2025 · 2.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.50 | 25.5% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 142 | 67 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.12 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .337 | 2.72 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.40 | 2.22 | 459 | 66 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 66 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.83 | 17.9% | 5.5% | 1.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 331 | 66 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.68 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +0.89 | 2.42 | 129 | 65 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 7.872 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +0.9 | $4M | -$3M |
| Totals | $6M | $4M | -$3M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | CLUB OPT | $26.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $7.2M / $1.2M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2029 | CLUB OPT | $7.5M / $1.2M buyout | DECLINE |