Aaron Bummer — OGILVIE

Aaron Bummer P Kansas City Royals

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 98

ERA3.74

FIP3.39

K%21.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

CT (10%)

FB (47%)

SI (39%)

CU (21%)

SL-0.6 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.2%	7.7%	0.0%	4.86	3.05	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	0.0%	4.86	2.20	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	2.9%	3.68	4.62	-0.1
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.87	+0.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	22.6%	7.5%	15.0%	0.4%	3.47	2.35	+1.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	0.4%	3.47	2.19	+1.8
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	1.5%	2.15	3.05	+1.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.4%	8.2%	14.3%	1.4%	2.15	2.99	+1.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.66	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.71	+0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.6%	8.5%	17.1%	1.7%	2.83	2.94	+0.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	1.6%	2.83	2.93	+0.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.94	+1.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.66	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			408	2	398	1728	442	160	30	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	1.7%	4.07	3.06	+7.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	ROK RAW	KC	2	1	2	7	3	0	0	50%	1.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	KC	8	0	8	34	10	1	2	0%	1.0	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	5.9%	4.32	4.22	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	17	88	13	11	7	0%	0.8	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.0%	10.26	7.80	-0.6
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	17	88	13	11	7	0%	0.8	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.0%	10.26	7.80	-0.6
ROS	32	MLB MLE	KC	4	0	4	19	4	1	0	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	2.1%	3.74	3.39	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	KC	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	2.1%	3.74	3.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	31	148	30	13	9	—	—	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	6.4%	7.11	7.48	-1.0
FULL	32	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	21	89	30	13	9	—	—	33.7%	15.1%	18.6%	10.5%	10.58	7.94	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	KC	46	0	49	206	44	17	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.42	+0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	KC	42	0	44	187	38	17	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.61	4.72	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	KC	47	0	49	207	44	17	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.42	+0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	KC	42	0	44	186	38	16	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.61	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		501	2	496	2140	528	195	43	0%	1.0	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	2.0%	4.15	3.27	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	863	213	79	17	0%	1.0	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	2.0%	4.15	3.27	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		499	4	515	2218	541	212	39	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	2	200	862	210	83	15	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Bummer (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.31	24.2%	6.7%	1.9%	—	4.56	20.8%	12.2%	93	+1.25	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	88
Tony Watson L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	32	SU	3.76	18.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.292	3.39	22.8%	18.4%	138	-0.37	2.21	405	81
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	81
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	80
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	77
Mike Dunn L 2017 · 4.29 FIP	32	SU	4.29	25.9%	12.7%	3.2%	.276	5.11	17.3%	2.6%	35	+0.82	3.71	181	77
Nick Ramirez L 2022 · 3.12 FIP	32	SU	3.12	20.8%	6.6%	1.7%	.294	3.22	16.0%	10.5%	113	+0.10	2.93	478	75
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	74
Vidal Nuño L 2019 · 4.40 FIP	32	SU	4.40	20.2%	8.7%	3.5%	.376	4.88	16.0%	11.1%	53	+0.48	4.00	424	74
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	73
Dana Eveland L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	32	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.7%	1.8%	.272	4.67	14.7%	10.0%	21	+0.83	2.42	129	72
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	72
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	72
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	70
Manny Parra L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	32	SU	2.88	17.7%	3.8%	1.4%	.300	3.33	18.4%	8.1%	55	+0.45	2.43	114	69
Xavier Cedeño L 2018 · 2.50 FIP	31	SU	2.50	25.5%	8.7%	0.8%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	142	69
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	3.78	127	68
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	67
J.P. Howell L 2015 · 3.06 FIP	32	SU	3.06	20.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.326	3.62	18.5%	11.2%	62	+0.56	3.06	106	67
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	22.0%	7.9%	1.05	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38