Aaron Bummer

P Kansas City Royals

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBATL	56	0	55	3.58	1.94	28.3%	6.6%	1.7
2025	31	MLBATL	42	2	54	3.81	2.66	21.7%	5.5%	1.2
2026	32	MIX3 levels	31	1	27	7.67	6.84	20.2%	9.3%	-0.7	K 14.8% · BB 12.5% · FIP 8.16
2027PROJ	33	MLBKC	50	0	52	4.51	4.64	20.0%	8.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBKC	28	0	29	4.77	4.94	19.1%	8.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ	35	MLBKC	14	0	15	5.08	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsHideki Okajima (age 33) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Kelly Wunsch (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.51

FIP4.64

K%20.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.2%	7.7%	0.0%	4.86	3.05	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	17	75	18	7	0	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	0.0%	4.86	2.20	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	2.9%	3.68	4.62	-0.1
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	1	71	295	71	31	8	2%	1.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.87	+0.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	22.6%	7.5%	15.0%	0.4%	3.47	2.35	+1.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	62	272	65	20	1	0%	0.9	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	0.4%	3.47	2.19	+1.8
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	1.5%	2.15	3.05	+1.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	75	294	66	24	4	0%	1.2	22.4%	8.2%	14.3%	1.4%	2.15	2.99	+1.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.66	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	9	0	9	38	14	5	0	0%	1.0	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	0.0%	0.96	1.71	+0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	62	0	56	242	75	26	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.2%	3.51	2.51	+1.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.6%	8.5%	17.1%	1.7%	2.83	2.94	+0.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	29	127	32	11	2	0%	0.8	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	1.6%	2.83	2.93	+0.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	61	0	58	267	78	33	4	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.4%	16.9%	1.5%	6.79	3.01	+1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.99	+1.7
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	56	0	55	244	69	16	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.8%	3.58	1.94	+1.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.67	+1.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	42	2	54	235	51	13	3	5%	1.3	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	1.3%	3.81	2.66	+1.2
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	14.8%	12.5%	2.3%	8.6%	7.67	8.16	-1.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	27	129	26	12	9	3%	0.9	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	7.0%	7.67	6.84	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			408	2	398	1728	442	160	30	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	1.7%	4.07	3.06	+7.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	KC	50	0	52	220	44	18	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.51	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	KC	28	0	29	122	23	11	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.94	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	KC	15	0	15	65	12	6	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.08	5.28	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	KC	28	0	29	122	23	11	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.94	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	KC	14	0	15	63	11	6	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.08	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		450	2	443	1915	477	177	37	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	1.9%	4.15	3.22	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	1	200	865	216	80	17	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	1.9%	4.15	3.22	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		499	4	515	2218	541	212	39	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	2	200	862	210	83	15	1%	1.0	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	1.8%	3.92	3.22	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.85 (+0.63)K% 29.4% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.860	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×0.900	2.65%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 8 IPFIP 2.31 → 2.54 (+0.23)K% 18.8% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.880	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.050	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.212	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 31 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.40 (+0.29)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.880	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.81%	—	×1.050	8.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.319	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABirmingham Barons · 33 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.80 (+0.79)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.810	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.49%	—	×1.100	10.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.894	×1.200	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 11 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.24 (+0.69)K% 31.9% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.770	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.150	7.34%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.275	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 5 IPFIP 1.62 → 1.91 (+0.28)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.050	5.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.150	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 1.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGreat Falls Voyagers · 12 IPFIP 1.83 → 3.05 (+1.23)K% 32.1% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.08%	—	×0.680	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.32%	—	×1.250	14.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 5 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.47 (+0.17)K% 4.5% → 3.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	4.55%	—	×0.770	3.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.098	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Bummer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.0%	8.2%	3.3%	—	5.06	18.8%	9.8%	44	+0.42	—	—	—
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	82
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	81
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	76
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	76
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	75
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	74
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	73
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	72
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	72
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	71
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	71
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	71
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	69
Francisley Bueno L 2014 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	14.1%	3.5%	2.3%	.289	3.94	13.6%	6.9%	138	+0.33	2.43	188	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	68
Ryan Sherriff L 2023 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	21.9%	11.0%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	68
Pedro Borbón L 2001 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	20.7%	4.1%	3.7%	.258	4.57	21.6%	14.3%	50	+0.67	2.26	264	67
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	66
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	66
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	45	24.4%	9.8%	0.80	4.19
Jerry Blevins ('19)	2.5	45	24.2%	9.3%	0.91	3.54
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Justin Wilson ('25)	2.8	56	25.9%	10.2%	0.82	3.59
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*