Hayden Harris

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 186 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	41	43	4.64	3.15	35.9%	13.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.79
2025	26	MIX3 levels	46	55	0.66	1.60	38.0%	10.1%	2.0	K 33.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 1.77
2026	27	MIX2 levels	46	53	5.81	4.41	28.2%	15.8%	—	K 24.3% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	20	21	4.49	4.49	26.5%	13.7%	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	29	MLBCOL	24	25	4.55	4.60	25.9%	13.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	30	MLBCOL	25	26	4.67	4.76	25.4%	13.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAaron Brown (age 27) · Edward Paredes (age 29) · Dario Alvarez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%26.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	6	0	5	22	6	6	1	0%	0.8	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	4.5%	3.86	6.75	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	6	0	5	22	6	6	1	0%	0.8	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	4.5%	3.86	7.17	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	59	247	91	24	5	0%	1.5	29.1%	11.2%	17.9%	1.9%	4.10	3.11	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	59	247	91	24	5	0%	1.5	36.8%	9.7%	27.1%	2.0%	4.10	2.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	43	192	69	25	5	0%	1.0	30.0%	12.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.64	3.79	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	43	192	69	25	5	0%	1.0	30.0%	12.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.64	3.79	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	43	192	69	25	5	0%	1.0	35.9%	13.0%	22.9%	2.6%	4.64	3.15	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	55	208	79	21	1	0%	1.2	33.7%	9.4%	24.3%	0.6%	0.66	1.77	+1.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	55	208	79	21	1	0%	1.2	33.7%	9.4%	24.3%	0.6%	0.66	1.77	+1.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	55	208	79	21	1	0%	1.2	38.0%	10.1%	27.9%	0.5%	0.66	1.60	+2.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	53	241	68	38	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.5%	9.8%	2.9%	5.81	4.46	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	53	241	68	38	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.5%	9.8%	2.9%	5.81	4.46	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	53	241	68	38	7	0%	1.1	28.2%	15.8%	12.4%	2.9%	5.81	4.41	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	3	12	0	2	0	0%	0.9	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	3.38	5.35	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	20	0	21	89	23	12	2	0%	1.1	26.5%	13.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	53	0	56	235	61	32	7	0%	1.0	25.9%	13.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.60	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	45	0	47	199	50	27	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.76	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	24	0	25	106	27	14	3	0%	1.0	25.9%	13.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.60	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	28	15	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	228	55	31	7	0%	1.0	24.3%	13.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	847	205	115	26	0%	1.0	24.3%	13.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		179	0	214	910	264	112	20	0%	1.2	29.0%	12.4%	16.7%	2.1%	3.74	3.39	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	850	247	105	18	0%	1.2	29.0%	12.4%	16.7%	2.1%	3.74	3.39	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 50 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.46 (+0.27)K% 28.3% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.860	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.09%	—	×0.900	14.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 29 IPFIP 1.77 → 2.15 (+0.38)K% 37.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.860	32.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×0.900	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.03%

Result: FIP 1.77 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 23 IPFIP 0.47 → 1.27 (+0.80)K% 43.5% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.53%	—	×0.810	35.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.100	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.934	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 0.47 → 1.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 22 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.39 (+0.56)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.24%	—	×0.900	13.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.968	×1.100	5.41%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 21 IPFIP 1.11 → 1.87 (+0.76)K% 39.1% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.08%	—	×0.810	31.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.100	11.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.906	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.11 → 1.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMississippi Braves · 35 IPFIP 2.06 → 2.95 (+0.89)K% 34.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.25%	—	×0.810	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.64%	—	×1.100	12.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.793	×1.200	1.04%

Result: FIP 2.06 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 16 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.48 (+1.33)K% 41.9% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.94%	—	×0.770	32.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.022	×1.250	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 8 IPFIP 3.64 → 5.59 (+1.95)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.740	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷0.976	×1.300	6.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Harris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.67	25.7%	12.2%	103	+0.18	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	82
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	82
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	81
Scott Sauerbeck L 2000 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	23.8%	15.2%	1.1%	.344	3.44	25.1%	13.3%	182	-0.20	2.79	386	80
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	79
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	76
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	76
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	194	76
Hector Mercado L 2002 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	23.1%	13.3%	1.2%	.278	6.59	17.4%	3.4%	19	+3.12	3.47	125	76
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.27	592	76
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	76
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	75
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	75
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	75
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	75
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	74
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	73
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	73
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	25.6%	13.6%	1.11	4.54
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*