Hayden Harris
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 186 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 107
ERA3.84
FIP3.84
K%31.2%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%18.6%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (84%)
SL (12%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.86 | 6.75 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.86 | 7.17 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 2.1% | 4.10 | 3.23 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 36.8% | 9.7% | 27.1% | 2.0% | 4.10 | 2.34 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 69 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 69 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 13.0% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 55 | 208 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.1% | 10.4% | 23.8% | 0.6% | 0.66 | 1.86 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 55 | 208 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.0% | 10.1% | 27.9% | 0.5% | 0.66 | 1.60 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 31 | 0 | 34 | 161 | 44 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 19.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 5.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 62 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 12.6% | 18.6% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 12.6% | 18.6% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.84 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 81 | 359 | 106 | 55 | 7 | — | — | 29.5% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 4.45 | 4.03 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 19 | 79 | 25 | 10 | 2 | — | — | 31.2% | 12.6% | 18.6% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 87 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.3% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 81 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 52 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 57 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 109 | 463 | 136 | 58 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.68 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 249 | 106 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 195 | 830 | 246 | 113 | 16 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 3.46 | 3.36 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 252 | 116 | 16 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 3.46 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Harris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 31.2% | 12.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.05 | 29.9% | 17.5% | 133 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.06 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.80 | 3.06 | 145 | 78 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.07 | 32.0% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 191 | 76 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 75 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2027 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 75 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 33.5% | 14.4% | 2.2% | .250 | 4.46 | 21.7% | 1.9% | 32 | +1.16 | 3.30 | 101 | 75 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 75 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .245 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 138 | +0.23 | 3.94 | 470 | 74 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 2.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.88 | 27.5% | 12.1% | 1.0% | .356 | 4.13 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 30 | +1.25 | 2.50 | 185 | 73 |
| Boone Logan L 2029 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 73 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 73 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 71 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.03 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 2.56 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 71 |
| Amir Garrett L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 31.7% | 13.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.80 | 28.5% | 15.3% | 111 | +0.15 | 3.06 | 712 | 70 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 70 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 70 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 70 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 122 | 70 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.91 | 26.7% | 15.9% | 1.9% | .308 | 4.83 | 19.3% | -1.2% | 24 | +0.92 | 2.52 | 143 | 69 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.85 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .295 | 3.16 | 25.0% | 16.0% | 123 | +0.31 | 2.68 | 256 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 30.2% | 12.5% | 1.05 | 3.96 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |