Hayden Harris
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 186 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.82
FIP3.82
xFIP7.12
SIERA8.01
K%28.4%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%17.7%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†6565
FB (84%)
SL (12%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 40 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 41 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 69 | 25 | 5 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 46 | 0 | 55 | 208 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 34.1% | 10.4% | 0.6% | 0.66 | 1.85 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 5 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 20 | — | 20 | 83 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 28.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 25 | 106 | 30 | 15 | 2 | 28.8% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 2.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 57 | 22 | 5 | 27.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 55 | 21 | 5 | 27.4% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 52 | 21 | 5 | 27.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 50 | 20 | 5 | 26.7% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 47 | 19 | 5 | 26.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 45 | 19 | 5 | 26.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 25.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 25.3% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 0 | 167 | 692 | 214 | 88 | 13 | 31.0% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 3.10 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 0 | 200 | 829 | 256 | 105 | 16 | 31.0% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 3.10 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Harris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 28.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | — | 3.97 | 27.4% | 16.8% | 142 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 81 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 80 |
| Boone Logan L 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 76 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 75 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.90 | 27.5% | 12.1% | 1.1% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 155 | 75 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .245 | 4.37 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 138 | +0.25 | 3.79 | 470 | 75 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .367 | 4.35 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.06 | 3.29 | 180 | 75 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 75 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 74 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 74 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 74 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 73 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 0.8% | .292 | 3.73 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.57 | 2.70 | 175 | 73 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 2.58 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 73 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 73 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 73 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2028 · 2.71 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.71 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | .356 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 181 | 71 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.13 | 33.5% | 14.4% | 1.9% | .250 | 4.54 | 21.7% | 1.9% | 32 | +1.41 | 3.13 | 101 | 71 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 2.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.97 | 30.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 146 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$5M | ||