Alex Vesia — OGILVIE

Alex Vesia P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7684vR 92

ERA3.28

FIP3.51

K%31.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%20.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p9033.3%

p9030.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

FB+3.5 (54%)

SL+1.9 (31%)

CH (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	0	9	34	7	3	0	0%	2.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.48	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	0	9	34	7	3	0	0%	2.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.52	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	1	67	262	100	19	3	3%	1.8	29.2%	8.5%	20.7%	1.6%	1.75	2.62	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	1	67	262	100	19	3	3%	1.8	38.2%	7.3%	30.9%	1.1%	1.75	1.54	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	5	0	4	27	5	7	3	0%	0.9	18.5%	25.9%	-7.4%	11.1%	18.69	10.92	-0.3
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	5	0	4	27	5	7	3	0%	0.9	18.5%	25.9%	-7.4%	11.1%	18.69	14.64	-0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	49	193	73	22	6	0%	1.0	33.5%	11.8%	21.7%	3.6%	2.02	3.72	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	49	193	73	22	6	0%	1.0	37.8%	11.4%	26.4%	3.1%	2.02	3.06	+0.9
2022	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	54	227	79	23	2	0%	0.9	34.8%	10.1%	24.7%	0.8%	2.15	1.91	+1.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	54	227	79	23	2	0%	0.9	34.8%	10.1%	24.7%	0.9%	2.15	1.94	+1.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	1	63	272	86	20	9	1%	0.9	30.2%	7.1%	23.1%	3.3%	4.14	3.25	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	1	63	272	86	20	9	1%	0.9	30.2%	7.1%	23.1%	3.3%	4.14	3.25	+1.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	1	63	272	86	20	9	1%	0.9	31.6%	7.4%	24.3%	3.3%	4.14	3.18	+1.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.6%	1.76	3.15	+1.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.6%	1.76	3.15	+1.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.7%	1.76	3.21	+1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	33.8%	8.0%	25.7%	3.6%	2.92	3.26	+0.9
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	33.8%	8.0%	25.7%	3.6%	2.92	3.26	+0.9
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	34.2%	7.8%	26.3%	3.7%	2.92	3.23	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			365	1	326	1347	434	140	38	0%	0.9	32.2%	10.4%	21.8%	2.8%	2.93	3.24	+5.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	65	0	51	215	65	28	4	0%	0.8	30.2%	13.0%	17.2%	1.8%	2.98	3.18	+0.8
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	65	0	51	215	65	28	4	0%	0.8	30.2%	13.0%	17.2%	1.8%	2.98	3.18	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	LAD	65	0	51	215	65	28	4	0%	0.8	30.2%	13.0%	17.2%	1.9%	2.98	3.22	+0.8
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	LAD	65	0	51	215	65	28	4	0%	0.8	30.2%	13.0%	17.2%	1.9%	2.98	3.22	+0.8
ROS	30	MLB MLE	LAD	5	0	5	23	7	2	1	0%	1.1	31.0%	10.4%	20.6%	3.1%	3.28	3.51	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	LAD	5	0	5	21	7	2	1	0%	1.0	31.0%	10.4%	20.6%	3.1%	3.28	3.51	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	57	238	72	30	5	—	—	30.3%	12.8%	17.5%	2.0%	3.01	3.21	+0.9
FULL	30	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	57	239	72	30	5	—	—	30.1%	12.7%	17.4%	2.0%	3.01	3.24	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	55	231	70	25	7	0%	1.1	30.4%	10.8%	19.7%	3.1%	3.77	3.96	+0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	51	214	63	24	7	0%	1.1	29.6%	11.2%	18.5%	3.3%	4.03	4.21	+0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	52	220	67	24	7	0%	1.0	30.4%	10.8%	19.7%	3.1%	3.77	3.96	+0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAD	46	0	48	203	60	23	7	0%	1.0	29.6%	11.2%	18.5%	3.3%	4.03	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		466	1	431	1793	568	189	52	0%	0.9	31.7%	10.5%	21.2%	2.9%	3.16	3.35	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		216	0	200	831	263	88	24	0%	0.9	31.7%	10.5%	21.2%	2.9%	3.16	3.35	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		431	2	425	1736	548	175	44	0%	1.0	31.6%	10.1%	21.5%	2.6%	2.64	3.11	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		203	1	200	816	258	82	21	0%	1.0	31.6%	10.1%	21.5%	2.6%	2.64	3.11	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Vesia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.70	31.9%	8.8%	3.3%	—	4.08	30.1%	19.1%	106	+0.38	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	420	80
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	76
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	73
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	73
Jake McGee L 2017 · 2.70 FIP	30	SU	2.70	25.3%	7.0%	1.6%	.285	4.10	24.0%	18.3%	113	+1.40	1.39	350	71
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	71
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	71
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	70
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	70
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	70
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	69
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	69
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	67
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	67
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	67
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	66
Jeff Beliveau L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	25.2%	11.3%	3.6%	.261	3.86	23.3%	8.9%	26	-0.54	3.19	137	65
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	64
Chasen Shreve L 2020 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	33.3%	11.8%	3.9%	.250	4.47	21.9%	12.4%	127	+0.54	3.89	470	63
Adam Morgan L 2020 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	27.6%	10.3%	4.8%	.333	4.16	26.9%	18.7%	42	-0.57	3.45	522	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	30.7%	10.2%	1.24	3.74
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22