Alex Vesia
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 209 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7382vR 92
ERA2.84
FIP3.12
K%32.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%22.5%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p9037.1%
K%
p9033.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.254
FB+3.5 (53%)
SL+1.9 (32%)
CH (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.48 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.52 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 67 | 262 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 1.75 | 2.81 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 67 | 262 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 38.2% | 7.3% | 30.9% | 1.1% | 1.75 | 1.54 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.5% | 25.9% | -7.4% | 11.1% | 18.69 | 10.92 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.5% | 25.9% | -7.4% | 11.1% | 18.69 | 14.64 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 193 | 73 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.5% | 11.8% | 21.7% | 3.9% | 2.02 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 193 | 73 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.8% | 11.4% | 26.4% | 3.1% | 2.02 | 3.06 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 79 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.8% | 10.1% | 24.7% | 0.9% | 2.15 | 1.96 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 79 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.8% | 10.1% | 24.7% | 0.9% | 2.15 | 1.94 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 1 | 63 | 272 | 86 | 20 | 9 | 1% | 0.9 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 23.2% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 1 | 63 | 272 | 86 | 20 | 9 | 1% | 0.9 | 31.6% | 7.4% | 24.3% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 3.18 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.1% | 11.4% | 21.7% | 2.8% | 1.76 | 3.30 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.1% | 11.4% | 21.7% | 2.7% | 1.76 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 62 | 243 | 83 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.8% | 8.0% | 25.7% | 4.0% | 2.92 | 3.47 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 62 | 243 | 83 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.2% | 7.8% | 26.3% | 3.7% | 2.92 | 3.23 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 42 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 33.8% | 13.5% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 1.96 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 10.1% | 22.5% | 2.7% | 2.84 | 3.12 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 10.1% | 22.5% | 2.7% | 2.84 | 3.12 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 59 | 248 | 82 | 30 | 3 | — | — | 33.3% | 12.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 2.53 | 2.49 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 59 | 248 | 82 | 30 | 3 | — | — | 33.2% | 11.9% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 2.53 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 73 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 10.5% | 21.3% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 66 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 10.9% | 20.1% | 3.2% | 3.82 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.1% | 11.3% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 70 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 10.5% | 21.3% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 10.9% | 20.1% | 3.2% | 3.82 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 56 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 11.3% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 505 | 1 | 478 | 1989 | 640 | 208 | 57 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.2% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.27 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 833 | 268 | 87 | 24 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.2% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.27 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 408 | 2 | 406 | 1654 | 530 | 166 | 45 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 10.0% | 22.0% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.15 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 815 | 261 | 82 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 10.0% | 22.0% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.15 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Vesia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.80 | 31.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | — | 4.00 | 31.0% | 20.1% | 152 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 72 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2029 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 70 |
| Tony Sipp L 2028 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 70 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.86 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 93 | +0.38 | 2.48 | 420 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 68 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 68 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 67 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2028 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 67 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 67 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 66 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .279 | 3.14 | 25.4% | 18.3% | 66 | +0.28 | 2.86 | 455 | 62 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 62 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 2.67 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.67 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.48 | 26.4% | 5.9% | 35 | +1.81 | 2.51 | 160 | 61 |
| Zach Duke L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 61 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.73 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.56 | 2.81 | 223 | 61 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 61 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 28.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | .337 | 3.85 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 100 | +0.43 | 1.96 | 191 | 61 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 60 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.94 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.44 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 127 | +0.50 | 3.94 | 470 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 31.2% | 10.3% | 1.26 | 3.73 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |