Alex Vesia

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBLAD	67	66	1.76	3.21	33.1%	11.4%	1.1
2025	29	MIX2 levels	70	62	2.92	3.23	34.2%	7.8%	1.0	K 33.8% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.26
2026	30	MLBLAD	72	58	2.64	2.94	31.2%	12.2%	1.1
2027PROJ	31	MLBLAD	52	55	3.32	3.71	30.9%	10.6%	0.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBLAD	42	44	3.70	3.96	30.1%	11.0%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBLAD	33	35	4.02	4.24	29.2%	11.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo16

Form2.57 ERA (proj 3.32) · K 27.2% (proj 30.9%) · BB 8.6% (proj 10.6%) · last 90d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsRyan Buchter (age 31) · George Sherrill (age 31) · Damaso Marte (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7482vR 91

ERA3.32

FIP3.71

K%30.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%20.3%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p9033.6%

p9031.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.254

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	0	9	34	7	3	0	0%	2.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.48	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	0	9	34	7	3	0	0%	2.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.52	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	1	67	262	100	19	3	3%	1.8	29.2%	8.5%	20.7%	1.6%	1.75	2.62	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	1	67	262	100	19	3	3%	1.8	38.2%	7.3%	30.9%	1.1%	1.75	1.54	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	5	0	4	27	5	7	3	0%	0.9	18.5%	25.9%	-7.4%	11.1%	18.69	10.92	-0.3
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	5	0	4	27	5	7	3	0%	0.9	18.5%	25.9%	-7.4%	11.1%	18.69	14.64	-0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	49	193	73	22	6	0%	1.0	33.5%	11.8%	21.7%	3.6%	2.02	3.72	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	49	193	73	22	6	0%	1.0	37.8%	11.4%	26.4%	3.1%	2.02	3.06	+0.9
2022	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	54	227	79	23	2	0%	0.9	34.8%	10.1%	24.7%	0.8%	2.15	1.91	+1.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	63	0	54	227	79	23	2	0%	0.9	34.8%	10.1%	24.7%	0.9%	2.15	1.94	+1.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	1	63	272	86	20	9	1%	0.9	30.5%	7.1%	23.4%	3.3%	4.14	3.23	+1.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	1	63	272	86	20	9	1%	0.9	31.6%	7.4%	24.3%	3.3%	4.14	3.18	+1.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.6%	1.76	3.15	+1.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.6%	1.76	3.15	+1.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	0	66	263	87	30	7	0%	1.0	33.1%	11.4%	21.7%	2.7%	1.76	3.21	+1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	33.8%	8.0%	25.7%	3.6%	2.92	3.26	+0.9
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	33.8%	8.0%	25.7%	3.6%	2.92	3.26	+0.9
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	62	243	83	19	9	0%	0.9	34.2%	7.8%	26.3%	3.7%	2.92	3.23	+1.0
2026	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	72	0	58	237	74	29	4	0%	0.8	31.2%	12.2%	19.0%	1.6%	2.64	2.90	+1.1
2026	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	72	0	58	237	74	29	4	0%	0.8	31.2%	12.2%	19.0%	1.6%	2.64	2.90	+1.1
2026	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	72	0	58	237	74	29	4	0%	0.8	31.2%	12.2%	19.0%	1.7%	2.64	2.94	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			372	1	332	1369	443	141	38	0%	0.9	32.4%	10.3%	22.1%	2.8%	2.87	3.19	+5.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	LAD	52	0	55	232	72	25	6	0%	1.1	30.9%	10.6%	20.3%	2.7%	3.32	3.71	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAD	44	0	46	195	59	22	6	0%	1.1	30.1%	11.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.70	3.96	+0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	LAD	35	0	37	156	46	18	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	11.5%	17.8%	3.2%	4.02	4.24	+0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	LAD	26	0	28	117	33	14	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	12.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.34	4.55	0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAD	42	0	44	186	56	20	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	11.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.70	3.96	+0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	LAD	33	0	35	148	43	17	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	11.5%	17.8%	3.2%	4.02	4.24	+0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	LAD	24	0	25	106	30	13	4	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.34	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		471	1	436	1808	572	191	52	0%	0.9	31.6%	10.6%	21.1%	2.9%	3.13	3.35	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		216	0	200	829	262	88	24	0%	0.9	31.6%	10.6%	21.1%	2.9%	3.13	3.35	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		438	2	432	1758	558	176	44	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.0%	21.7%	2.5%	2.60	3.07	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		203	1	200	814	258	81	21	0%	1.0	31.7%	10.0%	21.7%	2.5%	2.60	3.07	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 13 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.62 (+0.52)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.006	×1.100	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 9 IPFIP -0.73 → -0.07 (+0.66)K% 59.4% → 52.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	59.38%	—	×0.880	52.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.050	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP -0.73 → -0.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AClinton LumberKings · 32 IPFIP 1.91 → 3.11 (+1.20)K% 37.8% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.78%	—	×0.740	27.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.59%	—	×1.180	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.085	×1.300	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 19 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.52 (+1.57)K% 34.3% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.770	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.43%	—	×1.150	1.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.803	×1.250	4.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 61).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 16 IPFIP -0.38 → 0.34 (+0.73)K% 43.9% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.86%	—	×0.810	35.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.75%	—	×1.100	1.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.918	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP -0.38 → 0.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Marlins · 9 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.31 (+0.84)K% 20.6% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.680	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.250	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Vesia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	30.9%	10.6%	2.7%	—	4.20	29.4%	18.0%	111	+0.49	—	—	—
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	72
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	71
Damaso Marte L 2006 · 3.33 FIP	31	SU	3.33	24.7%	9.8%	2.0%	.284	3.05	26.2%	17.3%	124	-0.28	2.41	495	71
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.27	592	70
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	70
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	195	70
Tony Sipp L 2014 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	31.8%	7.6%	2.6%	.200	4.42	24.6%	16.7%	135	+1.62	2.22	504	70
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	69
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	68
Jared Koenig L 2024 · 2.79 FIP	30	SU	2.79	23.8%	7.2%	1.4%	.279	2.99	23.6%	15.9%	86	+0.20	2.79	475	67
Michael Gonzalez L 2009 · 2.91 FIP	31	SU	2.91	28.6%	7.9%	2.2%	.254	3.28	24.8%	15.4%	114	+0.37	1.45	454	66
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	65
Mike Myers L 2000 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	23.2%	11.9%	1.1%	.195	3.81	17.3%	6.8%	113	+0.54	3.22	533	64
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	64
Nik Turley L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	31	SU	3.58	29.2%	12.2%	2.5%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	313	64
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	63
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	63
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	63
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	63
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	50	31.5%	11.4%	1.11	3.16
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Cody Allen ('19)	2.3	58	30.5%	9.9%	1.07	3.14
Mike Gonzalez ('03-'13, 7 WAR*)	2.2	49	29.1%*	10.7%*	0.94*	3.18*
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*