Alex Vesia
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.8
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 209 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.38
FIP3.66
xFIP3.47
SIERA2.87
K%31.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%22.1%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†7070
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p9033.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
FB+3.5 (60%)
SL+1.9 (33%)
CH (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 38 | 1 | 67 | 262 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 1.75 | 2.59 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 18.69 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50 | 0 | 49 | 193 | 73 | 22 | 6 | 33.5% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 2.02 | 3.46 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 79 | 23 | 2 | 34.8% | 10.1% | 0.9% | 2.15 | 1.91 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69 | 1 | 63 | 272 | 86 | 20 | 9 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 3.26 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 33.1% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 1.76 | 3.15 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 70 | 0 | 62 | 243 | 83 | 19 | 9 | 33.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 2.92 | 3.08 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 59 | 244 | 74 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 2.86 | 3.35 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 71 | 22 | 7 | 29.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 3.56 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 67 | 22 | 7 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 28.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 27.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 27.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 26.4% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 25.5% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 374 | 2 | 381 | 1548 | 494 | 151 | 39 | 31.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 2.55 | 3.02 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 812 | 259 | 79 | 20 | 31.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 2.55 | 3.02 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Vesia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.83 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 3.94 | 29.2% | 19.7% | 163 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 72 |
| Tony Sipp L 2028 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 72 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 71 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2029 · 2.76 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.76 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.14 | 1.56 | 219 | 70 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 2.69 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.69 | 25.3% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .285 | 4.13 | 24.0% | 18.3% | 113 | +1.44 | 1.36 | 350 | 70 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 70 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 70 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.59 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .308 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 93 | +0.23 | 2.43 | 420 | 69 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 69 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 68 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 68 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 2.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.72 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.3% | .279 | 3.00 | 25.4% | 18.3% | 66 | +0.28 | 2.72 | 455 | 67 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.23 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.83 | 223 | 66 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 66 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.07 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 190 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 63 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 63 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.50 | 28.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | .337 | 3.97 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 100 | +0.47 | 1.88 | 191 | 63 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .364 | 2.52 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.63 | 2.07 | 363 | 62 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 2.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.82 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 2.2% | .275 | 4.39 | 26.4% | 5.9% | 35 | +1.57 | 2.58 | 160 | 61 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2021
Service 5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $3M | $3M | +$0.0M | ||