Nick Zwack — OGILVIE

Nick Zwack P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 243 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%16.7%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	5	0	7	26	13	2	0	0%	1.4	50.0%	7.7%	42.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.15	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	5	0	7	26	13	2	0	0%	1.4	50.0%	7.7%	42.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.24	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	106	423	132	34	6	88%	4.4	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	1.6%	2.81	3.16	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	106	423	132	34	6	88%	4.4	31.2%	8.0%	23.2%	1.4%	2.81	2.31	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	24	16	81	365	91	32	14	67%	3.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	5.1%	6.56	5.41	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	24	16	81	365	91	32	14	67%	3.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	5.1%	6.56	5.41	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	24	16	81	365	91	32	14	67%	3.4	24.9%	8.8%	16.2%	3.8%	6.56	4.29	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	21	74	311	68	26	13	100%	3.5	15.5%	9.5%	6.0%	5.8%	4.26	6.16	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	21	74	311	68	26	13	100%	3.5	15.5%	9.5%	6.0%	5.8%	4.26	6.16	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	21	74	311	68	26	13	100%	3.5	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	4.2%	4.26	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	39	0	41	188	49	26	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	2.9%	6.20	4.46	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	39	0	41	188	49	26	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	2.9%	6.20	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	SF	39	0	41	188	49	26	5	0%	1.0	26.1%	13.8%	12.2%	2.7%	6.20	4.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	42	0	44	185	32	18	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.37	5.40	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	14	8	3	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.37	5.40	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	78	14	8	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.37	5.02	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	86	32	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	4.0%	5.37	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		113	58	308	1313	276	129	49	51%	2.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.2%	3.7%	4.52	4.62	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	38	200	852	179	84	32	51%	2.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.2%	3.7%	4.52	4.62	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Zwack (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	16.7%	9.5%	3.9%	—	5.40	17.3%	7.7%	44	-0.03	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	76
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	75
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	74
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	72
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	71
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	70
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	70
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	70
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	69
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	69
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	69
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	69
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	69
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	69
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	69
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	69
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	68
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	68
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	67
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	17.0%	9.5%	1.53	5.40
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74