Nick Zwack
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 243 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121130vR 139
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%19.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 5 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 50.0% | 7.7% | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.15 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 5 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 50.0% | 7.7% | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 106 | 423 | 132 | 34 | 6 | 88% | 4.4 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.81 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 106 | 423 | 132 | 34 | 6 | 88% | 4.4 | 31.2% | 8.0% | 23.2% | 1.4% | 2.81 | 2.31 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 24 | 16 | 81 | 365 | 91 | 32 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 6.56 | 5.73 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 24 | 16 | 81 | 365 | 91 | 32 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 16.2% | 3.8% | 6.56 | 4.29 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 21 | 74 | 311 | 68 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 3.5 | 15.6% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.26 | 6.34 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 21 | 74 | 311 | 68 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 3.5 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 4.26 | 4.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 23 | 106 | 30 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 6.26 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 68 | 296 | 67 | 36 | 10 | — | — | 22.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 5.64 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 5 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 42 | 176 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 33 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 12 | 75 | 318 | 63 | 33 | 13 | 75% | 4.7 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.02 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 88 | 35 | 73% | 4.7 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 97 | 58 | 291 | 1231 | 263 | 126 | 48 | 60% | 3.0 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 4.73 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 40 | 200 | 847 | 181 | 86 | 33 | 60% | 3.0 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Zwack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | — | 5.39 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 125 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 79 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 78 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 76 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 74 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 72 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 71 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 71 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 69 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 69 |
| Mitch Stallings L 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.92 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 108 | 67 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 67 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.02 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 5.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 371 | 67 |
| Zac Lowther L 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.76 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .436 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 375 | 67 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 66 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.16 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 522 | 66 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .418 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 153 | 66 |
| Cam Vieaux L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.09 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.54 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 122 | -0.55 | 4.22 | 620 | 66 |
| Colten Schmidt L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 163 | 66 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 65 |
| Ethan Evanko L 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.95 | 17.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 113 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 42 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 1.59 | 5.32 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |