Otto Lopez — OGILVIE

Otto LopezSS Miami Marlins

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR -4%BB +3% Svc 2.634S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 4.3 · 2026

wRC+†vL 54116vR 127

AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .316 / .387

PA593

HR14

SB21

K%16

BB%7

xwOBA.357

Barrel%12.0%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

45→45

SPD

60→60

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.634 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+4.3	$34M	+$34M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+3.7	$30M	+$23M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+3.4	$29M	+$17M
2029	Arb-4	$17M	+3.1	$27M	+$10M
Totals		$37M		$121M	+$84M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	203	185	40	4	2	1	12	33	5	7	3	.216	.282	.276	.558	.059	.258	16	6	.249	49	-12	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
2018	19	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	34	33	8	3	1	0	0	7	1	1	0	.242	.265	.394	.659	.152	.308	21	0	.308	94	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
2019	20	A	2 teams	542	505	138	17	4	4	26	92	2	20	17	.273	.311	.347	.658	.073	.324	17	5	.289	79	-13	-3	+0	+6	+15	0.6
2020	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	66	59	15	4	0	0	6	10	1	3	1	.254	.333	.322	.655	.068	.306	15	9	—	—	—	—	+0	+1	—	—
2021	22	AA	3 teams	577	530	147	32	4	5	31	129	9	23	4	.277	.328	.381	.709	.104	.353	22	5	.311	96	-3	+3	+0	+6	+16	2.3
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	501	454	125	21	7	3	33	94	6	17	7	.275	.333	.372	.705	.097	.339	19	7	.309	95	-3	+1	-1	+5	+14	1.6
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	440	413	95	9	6	2	21	87	3	16	4	.230	.272	.295	.568	.065	.285	20	5	.253	52	-24	+2	+0	+5	+12	-0.5
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	483	450	128	28	1	8	27	83	2	20	5	.284	.328	.404	.732	.120	.332	17	6	.319	103	+1	+2	+11	+2	+14	3.1
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	594	544	134	21	0	16	44	82	3	15	6	.246	.306	.373	.679	.127	.263	14	7	.296	85	-10	+1	+10	+6	+17	2.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	101	92	29	5	2	3	6	18	2	4	1	.315	.370	.511	.881	.196	.361	18	6	.379	148	+6	+0	+2	+1	+3	1.3
ROS	27	MLB	MIA	492	453	125	21	3	12	32	80	4	17	4	.276	.329	.415	.744	.139	.308	16	7	.327	109	+5	+2	+4	+5	+14	3.1
TOT	27	MLB	MIA	593	545	154	26	5	15	38	98	6	21	5	.283	.336	.431	.767	.149	.320	17	6	.336	116	+10	+2	+6	+6	+17	4.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB	MIA	585	537	147	25	3	14	38	76	5	20	4	.274	.328	.410	.737	.136	.294	13	6	.326	108	+5	+2	+4	+6	+17	3.5
2028	29	MLB	MIA	573	525	142	24	3	13	38	76	5	18	4	.270	.326	.402	.728	.131	.293	13	7	.324	106	+4	+2	+3	+6	+16	3.2
2029	30	MLB	MIA	561	515	139	23	3	13	37	76	4	17	3	.270	.324	.402	.726	.132	.292	14	7	.321	104	+2	+2	+3	+6	+16	3.0
2030	31	MLB	MIA	546	501	133	22	3	12	36	76	4	14	2	.265	.320	.393	.713	.128	.291	14	7	.317	101	+1	+2	+2	+6	+15	2.6
2031	32	MLB	MIA	527	483	128	21	3	11	35	76	4	11	1	.265	.320	.389	.709	.124	.290	14	7	.313	97	-2	+2	+1	+6	+15	2.2
2032	33	MLB	MIA	497	458	118	19	2	10	32	75	4	8	0	.258	.312	.373	.685	.116	.288	15	6	.307	93	-4	+2	-0	+5	+14	1.7
2033	34	MLB	MIA	450	415	105	17	2	8	29	72	3	6	0	.253	.306	.361	.668	.108	.287	16	6	.301	88	-6	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.2
2034	35	MLB	MIA	395	364	90	14	2	7	25	67	3	5	0	.247	.301	.354	.655	.107	.285	17	6	.293	83	-8	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.6
2035	36	MLB	MIA	335	309	75	12	2	5	21	61	2	4	0	.243	.295	.343	.638	.100	.283	18	6	.284	76	-9	+1	-4	+4	+9	0.1
2036	37	MLB	MIA	270	250	59	9	1	4	16	51	2	2	0	.236	.287	.328	.615	.092	.280	19	6	.275	69	-10	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8671	7983	2091	346	52	148	539	1403	72	244	65	.262	.314	.374	.688	.112	.300	16	6	.302	90	-101	+23	+24	+89	+246	28.7
/ 162G	—			650	598	157	26	4	11	40	105	5	18	5	.263	.314	.375	.688	.112	.300	16	6	.302	90	-8	+2	+2	+7	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	203	178	49	6	3	1	19	23	5	7	3	.275	.361	.360	.721	.084	.312	11	9	.329	110	+2	+0	—	—	+6	0.8
2018	19	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	34	33	12	5	2	0	0	5	1	1	0	.364	.382	.636	1.019	.273	.429	15	0	.439	194	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	20	A	Lansing Lugnuts	492	447	145	20	5	5	34	63	2	20	15	.324	.375	.425	.800	.101	.365	13	7	.352	128	+16	-2	—	—	+14	2.8
2019	20	INTL	Leones del Escogido	50	45	13	1	0	0	5	9	0	0	2	.289	.360	.311	.671	.022	.361	18	10	.313	97	-0	-1	—	—	+1	0.0
2020	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	66	59	15	4	0	0	6	10	1	3	1	.254	.333	.322	.655	.068	.306	15	9	.303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2021	22	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	194	173	50	8	3	2	13	26	4	15	1	.289	.353	.405	.757	.116	.324	13	7	.334	114	+3	+3	—	—	+5	1.1
2021	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	314	278	92	24	1	3	28	62	5	7	3	.331	.402	.457	.859	.126	.412	20	9	.382	150	+18	+0	—	—	+9	2.7
2021	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	69	65	15	2	0	1	4	12	0	1	0	.231	.275	.308	.583	.077	.269	17	6	.265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	391	340	101	19	6	3	41	61	5	14	5	.297	.381	.415	.796	.118	.351	16	10	.355	130	+13	+1	—	—	+11	2.5
2022	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	20	1	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	.050	.136	.050	.186	.000	.062	18	9	.105	-62	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	88	79	24	6	0	0	5	9	1	3	2	.304	.353	.380	.733	.076	.343	10	6	.321	104	+0	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	346	318	82	9	6	2	23	55	3	13	4	.258	.314	.343	.657	.085	.305	16	7	.296	85	-6	+1	—	—	+10	0.5
2023	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	94	87	27	5	2	2	6	13	0	3	0	.310	.355	.483	.838	.172	.342	14	6	.365	137	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2024	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	434	403	109	23	1	6	25	75	1	20	4	.270	.314	.377	.691	.107	.318	17	6	.307	93	-3	+2	+11	+2	+12	2.5
2024	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	49	45	18	5	0	2	3	7	1	0	1	.400	.449	.644	1.093	.244	.444	14	6	.477	223	+7	-0	—	—	+1	0.8
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	594	544	134	21	0	15	44	82	3	15	6	.246	.306	.368	.674	.121	.264	14	7	.303	90	-7	+1	+10	+6	+17	2.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1028	947	243	44	1	21	69	157	4	35	10	.257	.310	.372	.681	.115	.287	15	7	.305	91	-10	+3	+21	+8	+29	5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Otto Lopez (OGILVIE)	27	60	45	60	45	.272/.325/.407	.135	.294	14	21	13%	6%	109	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Berroa 2004 · MLB	27	54→56	48→50	56→50	46	.269/.324/.419	.150	.300	14	18	16%	5%	111	+2.5	.260/.304/.386	.126	.297	12	12	16%	4%	93	+1.3	.259/.304/.420	.161	.303	20	4	21%	4%	101	+1.1
✕Amed Rosario 2023 · MLB	27	56→61	45→50	56→55	43	.277/.311/.407	.130	.324	12	14	19%	5%	102	+1.8	.269/.306/.393	.124	.322	9	16	19%	5%	95	+1.4	.269/.305/.388	.119	.323	8	16	19%	4%	92	+0.7
●Jean Segura 2017 · MLB	27	57→64	44→50	56→60	45	.277/.317/.400	.124	.309	11	24	15%	5%	102	+1.9	.292/.336/.420	.128	.326	12	20	14%	5%	116	+2.8	.288/.333/.406	.118	.319	10	17	12%	5%	106	+2.2
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	51→59	49→50	58→60	53	.253/.329/.406	.154	.299	15	25	20%	9%	109	+2.4	.243/.316/.384	.141	.292	13	17	20%	9%	98	+1.6	.233/.306/.368	.136	.280	13	15	21%	9%	86	+0.4
✕Thairo Estrada 2023 · MLB	27	52→61	50	51→55	47	.260/.321/.411	.151	.292	18	17	18%	6%	108	+2.3	.256/.303/.396	.140	.301	16	16	20%	5%	96	+1.5	.250/.289/.380	.130	.297	15	14	21%	4%	84	+0.4
✕Tommy Edman 2022 · MLB	27	53→55	47→50	56→55	47	.261/.310/.404	.143	.293	14	21	16%	6%	101	+1.8	.255/.311/.396	.141	.292	13	26	17%	7%	99	+1.7	.251/.312/.396	.145	.288	14	29	18%	7%	97	+1.1
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	54→62	43→45	54→60	50	.261/.320/.374	.113	.289	10	19	13%	7%	97	+1.5	.280/.338/.388	.108	.307	9	28	11%	7%	108	+2.3	.286/.346/.385	.099	.311	7	31	10%	7%	108	+2.5
●Josh Harrison 2015 · MLB	28	57→62	49→55	55	44	.280/.318/.443	.163	.310	14	20	15%	4%	115	+2.7	.277/.318/.408	.131	.317	11	17	16%	4%	105	+2.1	.270/.318/.389	.119	.310	10	16	16%	4%	97	+1.3
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→54	45→50	54→50	51	.250/.315/.381	.131	.286	12	16	17%	8%	97	+1.5	.243/.334/.382	.139	.295	13	13	21%	11%	106	+2.2	.231/.341/.379	.148	.286	15	8	23%	12%	101	+0.9
●Rafael Furcal 2005 · MLB	27	57→62	45→50	57→60	54	.278/.337/.414	.135	.302	12	23	12%	8%	114	+2.7	.282/.347/.418	.136	.308	11	29	12%	9%	119	+3.1	.282/.349/.406	.124	.310	10	31	12%	9%	113	+3.0
●Coco Crisp 2007 · MLB	27	56→59	47→50	52→65	51	.279/.327/.423	.145	.303	14	20	14%	7%	113	+2.6	.263/.325/.389	.126	.297	10	25	14%	8%	103	+1.9	.254/.333/.409	.155	.268	16	29	12%	11%	107	+2.0
✕Hernán Pérez 2018 · MLB	27	51→56	47→50	56→55	42	.256/.287/.393	.137	.297	15	24	20%	4%	88	+0.9	.247/.286/.391	.144	.295	17	19	22%	5%	88	+0.9	.241/.281/.376	.136	.295	17	18	24%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Jose Aguilar 2017 · AAA	27	53→60	41→45	52→55	48	.256/.313/.359	.103	.289	8	18	14%	6%	90	+1.0	.250/.306/.359	.109	.296	10	20	18%	6%	88	+0.9	.262/.323/.376	.113	.319	9	23	19%	6%	95	+0.7
●Cameron Maybin 2014 · MLB	27	50→59	45→50	58→55	50	.244/.307/.369	.125	.291	12	29	20%	8%	91	+1.1	.246/.308/.356	.110	.297	10	19	19%	8%	88	+0.9	.257/.331/.375	.118	.309	11	30	19%	9%	99	+1.4
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2003 · MLB	27	51→55	42→50	54→55	53	.246/.315/.358	.112	.267	9	25	12%	8%	92	+1.2	.261/.333/.367	.106	.287	7	23	11%	8%	101	+1.8	.263/.322/.403	.140	.282	14	15	12%	7%	102	+1.4
✕Chris Burke 2007 · MLB	27	52→56	45	53→55	48	.254/.320/.386	.132	.296	12	18	18%	7%	101	+1.8	.233/.306/.352	.119	.269	10	17	17%	8%	86	+0.8	.219/.292/.320	.101	.255	8	19	17%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Fernando Rios 2006 · AAA	27	54	45→40	55→50	48	.267/.313/.391	.124	.280	13	15	11%	5%	99	+1.7	.253/.305/.355	.102	.288	9	13	15%	6%	85	+0.7	.252/.309/.323	.070	.285	4	6	13%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Matt Duffy 2018 · MLB	27	55→65	44→45	51→50	48	.270/.318/.392	.122	.305	11	12	16%	6%	101	+1.8	.269/.339/.364	.095	.319	7	10	17%	9%	102	+1.9	.274/.349/.359	.085	.330	7	11	17%	9%	102	+1.2
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2017 · MLB	27	53→57	49→55	60→55	48	.262/.318/.430	.168	.301	15	21	18%	7%	111	+2.5	.246/.307/.410	.164	.296	17	21	22%	7%	102	+1.8	.255/.318/.395	.140	.326	12	17	24%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Pokey Reese 2001 · MLB	28	51→55	46→45	60→55	52	.250/.315/.384	.135	.277	13	25	15%	8%	98	+1.6	.240/.304/.354	.114	.280	10	24	17%	8%	85	+0.7	.235/.299/.330	.095	.280	8	24	18%	8%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)