Lorenzo Cain

PosCF
B/TR/R
Born1986-04-13
Age (2027)41
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
MLBLAST SEASON 2022
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202034MLBMIL21.333/.429/.389001220.2
202135AAAMIL31.241/.290/.2760127—.200/.226/.233
202135MLBMIL286.257/.330/.4018131091.6
202236MLBMIL156.179/.232/.2341234-0.7
202337No MLB games played
202438No MLB games played
202539No MLB games played
202640No MLB games played
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2022
Speed71
Avg EV39
xwOBA38
Barrel%10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200519 ROKHelena Brewers — 261229 781855 21387 123 341411528939 188386 158 409 94 — — — — — —
200620 AWest Virginia Power — 604527 1623646 5810411 3411 307387425812 118370 1710 362 99 — — — — — —
200721 A+Brevard County Manatees — 533482 1332132 37979 249 276339344683 68341 187 310 68 — — — — — —
200822 AAANashville Sounds — 2219 3000 360 00 158273158431 231 2714 219 -1 — — — — — —
200822 AAHuntsville Stars — 172148 41954 19412 62 277367486853 209352 2411 369 105 — — — — — —
200822 A+Brevard County Manatees — 356317 912247 29687 194 287360448808 161344 198 357 91 — — — — — —
200923 AAHuntsville Stars — 160145 31604 10353 33 214278338616 124252 226 276 42 — — — — — —
200923 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 6152 10400 9150 00 192311269581 77270 2515 276 25 — — — — — —
201024 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 158147 451111 9281 71 306350415765 109370 186 340 121 +4 +1 +2 +2 +3 1.3
201024 AAANashville Sounds — 10087 26530 11171 51 299384425809 126371 1711 360 93 — — — — — —
201024 AAHuntsville Stars — 280244 79663 34521 212 324409434843 111402 1912 379 106 — — — — — —
201125 MLBKansas City Royals — 2322 6100 140 00 273304318623 45333 174 283 79 -1 +0 -0 -7 +0 -0.7
201125 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 549487 15228716 4010215 166 312382497879 185366 197 384 98 — — — — — —
201125 INTLNavegantes del Magallanes — 3933 7101 432 11 212333333667 121207 810 312 97 — — — — — —
201226 MLBKansas City Royals — 244222 59927 15563 100 266321419740 153319 236 324 109 +3 +2 +4 +1 +5 1.5
201226 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 3128 9301 240 00 321367536902 214333 136 382 112 — — — — — —
201226 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 2424 5101 060 00 208208375583 167235 250 253 15 — — — — — —
201327 MLBKansas City Royals — 442399 1002134 33904 146 251314348663 98309 207 297 86 -7 +0 +14 +2 +10 1.9
201428 MLBKansas City Royals — 502471 1422945 241084 285 301341412753 110380 225 334 112 +7 +4 +14 +2 +11 3.9
201529 MLBKansas City Royals — 604551 16934616 379812 286 307363477841 171347 166 370 137 +27 +3 +12 +2 +13 5.8
201630 MLBKansas City Royals — 434397 1141919 31842 145 287342408750 121341 197 334 112 +6 +1 +5 +2 +9 2.3
201731 MLBKansas City Royals — 645584 17527515 541005 262 300364440804 140340 168 358 131 +24 +4 +9 +2 +14 5.5
201832 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 620539 16625210 71948 307 308396417814 109357 1511 368 137 +27 +3 +15 +2 +13 6.2
201933 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 623562 14630011 501066 188 260326372698 112301 178 314 101 +1 +0 +9 +2 +13 2.6
202034 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 2118 6100 320 00 333429389817 56375 1014 376 122 +1 +0 +1 +0 +0 0.2
202135 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 286257 661308 26482 132 257330401731 144287 179 328 109 +3 +2 +3 +1 +6 1.6
202135 AAANashville Sounds — 3129 7100 280 10 241290276566 34333 266 262 27 — — — — — —
202236 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 156145 26501 8362 22 179232234467 55229 235 216 34 -12 -0 +1 +1 +3 -0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 47584314 12202252487 36285449 19044 283345407752 124333 188 336 113 +75 +20 +91 +12 +103 30.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200519 ROK MLEHelena Brewers — 261238 631344 13557 123 265322403725 139313 215 307 94 — — — — — —
200620 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 604547 1533145 3914011 3411 280340378718 99355 236 314 99 — — — — — —
200721 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 533491 1212022 281389 249 246299308607 61334 265 269 68 — — — — — —
200822 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 2221 3000 180 00 143182143325 218 365 166 -1 — — — — — —
200822 AA MLEHuntsville Stars — 172154 40953 13502 62 260325442767 182339 298 324 105 — — — — — —
200822 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 356325 812036 21967 194 249309385693 135330 276 303 91 — — — — — —
200923 AA MLEHuntsville Stars — 160148 27503 7433 33 182234277511 95233 274 231 42 — — — — — —
200923 A MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 6155 8300 6200 00 145230200430 55237 3310 205 25 — — — — — —
201024 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 158147 461211 9281 71 313357429785 116370 186 347 121 +4 +1 +2 +2 +3 1.3
201024 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 10090 24430 8221 51 267333378711 111344 228 306 93 — — — — — —
201024 AA MLEHuntsville Stars — 280256 74662 22621 212 289348383730 94374 228 325 106 — — — — — —
201125 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 2322 6100 140 00 273304318623 45333 174 284 79 -1 +0 -0 -7 +0 -0.7
201125 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 549498 13321611 2913615 166 267327400726 133337 255 313 98 — — — — — —
201226 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 244222 60928 15563 100 270325437762 167319 236 330 109 +3 +2 +4 +1 +5 1.5
201226 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 3129 9301 150 00 310333517851 207295 163 334 112 — — — — — —
201226 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 2424 4101 070 00 167167333500 167205 290 190 15 — — — — — —
201327 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 442401 1012134 31904 146 252312349661 97309 207 296 86 -7 +0 +14 +2 +10 1.9
201428 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 502473 1432945 221084 285 302339412751 110380 224 334 112 +7 +4 +14 +2 +11 3.9
201529 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 604555 17134617 339812 286 308360483843 175347 165 371 137 +27 +3 +12 +2 +13 5.8
201630 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 434400 11619110 28842 145 290340417757 128341 196 333 112 +6 +1 +5 +2 +9 2.3
201731 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 645585 17727516 531005 262 303365448813 145340 168 362 131 +24 +4 +9 +2 +14 5.5
201832 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 620540 16927210 70948 307 313400426826 113357 1511 370 137 +27 +3 +15 +2 +13 6.2
201933 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 623563 14832010 501066 188 263330373703 110301 178 317 101 +1 +0 +9 +2 +13 2.6
202034 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 2119 6100 220 00 316381368749 53375 1010 348 122 +1 +0 +1 +0 +0 0.2
202135 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 286257 671408 26482 132 261333409742 148287 179 329 109 +3 +2 +3 +1 +6 1.6
202135 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 3130 6100 190 10 200226233459 33295 293 208 27 — — — — — —
202236 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 156145 26501 8362 22 179232234467 55229 235 219 34 -12 -0 +1 +1 +3 -0.7
200519 ROK MLEHelena Brewers — 261238 631344 13557 123 265322403725 139324 215 307 94 — — — — — —
200519 ROK RAWHelena Brewers — 261229 781855 21387 123 341411528939 188386 158 409 94 — — — — — —
200620 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 604547 1533145 3914011 3411 280340378718 99364 236 314 99 — — — — — —
200620 A RAWWest Virginia Power — 604527 1623646 5810411 3411 307387425812 118370 1710 362 99 — — — — — —
200721 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 533491 1212022 281389 249 246299308607 61338 265 269 68 — — — — — —
200721 A+ RAWBrevard County Manatees — 533482 1332132 37979 249 276339344683 68341 187 310 68 — — — — — —
200822 A+ MLE3 teams — 550499 1232989 361549 256 246309391700 144335 287 304 92 — — — — — —
200822 A+ RAW3 teams — 550484 13531911 511159 256 279358448807 169343 219 355 92 — — — — — —
200923 AA MLE2 teams — 221203 35803 13633 33 172233256489 84232 296 224 38 — — — — — —
200923 AA RAW2 teams — 221197 411004 19503 33 208288320607 112257 239 276 38 — — — — — —
201024 AA MLE3 teams — 538493 14422103 391123 334 292348396743 103372 217 328 108 — — — — — —
201024 AA RAW3 teams — 538478 15022104 54973 334 314387427814 113386 1810 364 108 — — — — — —
201125 AAA MLE3 teams — 611555 14824611 3214917 177 267326391717 124344 245 312 97 — — — — — —
201125 AAA RAW3 teams — 611542 16530717 4510917 177 304376480856 175353 187 376 97 — — — — — —
201226 MLB MLE3 teams — 299275 721329 16683 100 262310422731 160310 235 319 102 +1 +2 +4 +1 +6 1.5
201226 MLB RAW3 teams — 299274 731329 17663 100 266316427743 161314 226 325 102 +1 +2 +4 +1 +6 1.5
201327 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 442401 1012134 31904 146 252312349661 97310 207 296 86 -7 +0 +14 +2 +10 1.9
201327 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 442399 1002134 33904 146 251314348663 98309 207 297 86 -7 +0 +14 +2 +10 1.9
201428 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 502473 1432945 221084 285 302339412751 110380 224 334 112 +7 +4 +14 +2 +11 3.9
201428 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 502471 1422945 241084 285 301341412753 110380 225 334 112 +7 +4 +14 +2 +11 3.9
201529 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 604555 17134617 339812 286 308360483843 175347 165 371 137 +27 +3 +12 +2 +13 5.8
201529 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 604551 16934616 379812 286 307363477841 171347 166 370 137 +27 +3 +12 +2 +13 5.8
201630 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 434400 11619110 28842 145 290340417757 128342 196 333 112 +6 +1 +5 +2 +9 2.3
201630 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 434397 1141919 31842 145 287342408750 121341 197 334 112 +6 +1 +5 +2 +9 2.3
201731 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 645585 17727516 531005 262 303365448813 145342 168 362 131 +24 +4 +9 +2 +14 5.5
201731 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 645584 17527515 541005 262 300364440804 140340 168 358 131 +24 +4 +9 +2 +14 5.5
201832 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 620540 16927210 70948 307 313400426826 113363 1511 370 137 +27 +3 +15 +2 +13 6.2
201832 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 620539 16625210 71948 307 308396417814 109357 1511 368 137 +27 +3 +15 +2 +13 6.2
201933 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 623563 14832010 501066 188 263330373703 110306 178 317 101 +1 +0 +9 +2 +13 2.6
201933 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 623562 14630011 501066 188 260326372698 112301 178 314 101 +1 +0 +9 +2 +13 2.6
202034 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 2119 6100 220 00 316381368749 53353 1010 348 122 +1 +0 +1 +0 +0 0.2
202034 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 2118 6100 320 00 333429389817 56375 1014 376 122 +1 +0 +1 +0 +0 0.2
202135 MLB MLE2 teams — 317287 731508 27572 142 254323390713 136291 189 318 101 +0 +2 +3 +1 +7 1.4
202135 MLB RAW2 teams — 317286 731408 28562 142 255326388714 133291 189 321 101 +0 +2 +3 +1 +7 1.4
202236 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 156145 26501 8362 22 179232234467 55229 235 219 34 -12 -0 +1 +1 +3 -0.7
202236 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 156145 26501 8362 22 179232234467 55229 235 216 34 -12 -0 +1 +1 +3 -0.7
200519 ROK MLEHelena Brewers — 261239 631344 13557 123 264322402723 138313 215 307 94 — — — — — —
200620 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 604549 1533145 3914011 3411 279340377717 98355 236 314 99 — — — — — —
200721 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 533491 1212022 281389 249 246299308607 61334 265 269 68 — — — — — —
200822 A+ MLE3 teams — 550500 1232989 361549 256 246309390699 144328 287 304 92 — — — — — —
200923 AA MLE2 teams — 221203 35803 13633 33 172233256489 84234 296 224 38 — — — — — —
201024 AA MLE3 teams — 538491 14422103 391123 334 293348397745 104367 217 328 108 — — — — — —
201125 AAA MLE3 teams — 611557 14824611 3214917 177 266326390716 124337 245 312 97 — — — — — —
201226 MLB MLE3 teams — 299278 721329 16683 100 259310417727 158307 235 319 102 — — — — — —
201327 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 442404 1012134 31904 146 250312347658 97309 207 296 86 — — — — — —
201428 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 502471 1432945 221084 285 304339414753 110380 224 334 112 — — — — — —
201529 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 604554 17134617 339812 286 309360484844 175347 165 371 137 — — — — — —
201630 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 434401 11619110 28842 145 289340416756 127341 196 333 112 — — — — — —
201731 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 645582 17727516 531005 262 304365450816 146340 168 362 131 — — — — — —
201832 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 620537 16927210 70948 307 315400428828 114357 1511 370 137 — — — — — —
201933 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 623562 14832010 501066 188 263330374703 110301 178 317 101 — — — — — —
202034 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 2119 6100 220 00 316381368749 53375 1010 348 122 — — — — — —
202135 MLB MLE2 teams — 317285 731508 27572 142 256323393716 137288 189 318 101 — — — — — —
202236 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 156145 26501 8362 22 179232234467 55229 235 219 34 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 47584314 12202252487 36285449 19044 283345407752 124333 188 336 103 +75 +20 +91 +12 +103 30.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 16731312 491177 266 284345407753 124334 188 336 103 +10 +3 +12 +2 +14 4.2
Career— MLE — 79817269 198937057127 5401654107 33286 274333393726 119336 217 321 103 +75 +20 +91 +12 +103 30.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650592 16230510 441359 277 274333392725 118337 217 321 103 +10 +3 +12 +2 +14 4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 31 PAwOBA .255 → .208 (−47)K% 25.8% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.81%÷1.024×1.200——30.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷0.946×0.690—×0.9404.42%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.966×0.930—×0.94025.85%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷1.030×0.830—×0.9403.61%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.915×0.700—×0.9400.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .255 → .208; ISO .034 → .025; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 31 PAwOBA .384 → .334 (−50)K% 12.9% → 16.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.90%÷1.035×1.290——16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷1.012×0.710—×1.0184.61%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP20.83%÷1.010×0.900—×1.01818.91%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷0.949×0.810—×1.01810.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.998×0.810—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷1.001×0.780—×1.0183.31%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .334; ISO .214 → .183; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 24 PAwOBA .245 → .190 (−55)K% 25.0% → 30.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷0.989×1.220——30.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.936×0.700—×0.9880.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.047×0.920—×0.98814.47%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷0.883×0.840—×0.9885.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.079×0.940—×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.059×0.800—×0.9884.15%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 77, 3B 116, K 98, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .245 → .190; ISO .167 → .122; BABIP .235 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 549 PAwOBA .376 → .313 (−62)K% 18.6% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.58%÷0.970×1.290——24.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.29%÷1.028×0.710—×1.0335.20%
HBP% /PA2.73%—×0.980—×1.0332.77%
Singles /BIP26.23%÷0.929×0.900×0.977×1.03325.64%
Doubles /BIP7.27%÷1.033×0.810×0.977×1.0335.76%
Triples /BIP1.82%÷0.932×0.810×0.977×1.0331.60%
Home runs /BIP4.16%÷1.161×0.780—×1.0332.88%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 86, 2B 107, 3B 86, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .376 → .313; ISO .185 → .134; BABIP .366 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAHuntsville Stars · 280 PAwOBA .367 → .325 (−42)K% 18.6% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.57%÷1.029×1.220——22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.43%÷0.997×0.680—×1.0127.89%
HBP% /PA0.36%—×0.840—×1.0120.30%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.030×0.920×1.017×1.01230.64%
Doubles /BIP3.12%÷0.918×0.910×1.017×1.0123.19%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷0.900×0.880×1.017×1.0123.15%
Home runs /BIP1.56%÷1.108×0.800—×1.0121.14%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .367 → .325; ISO .111 → .103; BABIP .402 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAANashville Sounds · 100 PAwOBA .351 → .306 (−45)K% 17.0% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.00%÷0.991×1.290——22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.00%÷0.989×0.710—×1.0488.27%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.980—×1.0481.03%
Singles /BIP25.71%÷1.009×0.900×1.024×1.04824.61%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.089×0.810×1.024×1.0485.70%
Triples /BIP4.29%÷0.900×0.810×1.024×1.0484.14%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.943×0.780—×1.0480.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .351 → .306; ISO .126 → .110; BABIP .371 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAHuntsville Stars · 160 PAwOBA .271 → .231 (−39)K% 21.9% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.88%÷1.000×1.220——26.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0274.36%
HBP% /PA1.88%—×0.840—×1.0271.62%
Singles /BIP19.09%÷1.000×0.920×0.988×1.02717.82%
Doubles /BIP5.45%÷1.000×0.910×0.988×1.0275.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880×0.988×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.64%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0272.99%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .271 → .231; ISO .124 → .104; BABIP .252 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 61 PAwOBA .270 → .205 (−65)K% 24.6% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.59%÷1.000×1.360——33.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.75%÷1.000×0.690—×0.99010.08%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9900.00%
Singles /BIP16.22%÷1.000×0.920—×0.99014.77%
Doubles /BIP10.81%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9908.88%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9900.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .270 → .205; ISO .077 → .059; BABIP .270 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .