Thairo Estrada — OGILVIE

Thairo Estrada2B Colorado Rockies

Age 30 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB H +10%K -4% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.7 · 2026

wRC+†vL 4077vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .279 / .359

PA379

HR9

SB8

K%20

BB%4

xwOBA.264

Barrel%3.1%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

40→40

SPD

55→55

EYE

33↗35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

Barrel%

103.1

xwOBA

120.264

Avg EV

1386.3

Whiff%

490.111

Chase%

100.404

Speed

5827.8

Bat Spd

5471.8

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.7	$3M	-$2M
Totals		$5M		$3M	-$2M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	GCL Yankees2	199	181	39	8	4	2	7	43	8	7	5	.215	.276	.337	.613	.122	.270	22	4	.250	50	-11	-1	+0	+1	+6	-0.6
2014	18	ROK	GCL Yankees1	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	.182	.217	.227	.445	.045	.250	26	4	.206	16	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2016	20	A+	2 teams	499	466	122	18	2	8	26	93	3	18	8	.262	.305	.361	.666	.099	.311	19	5	.286	77	-13	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2017	21	AA	2 teams	626	583	169	21	4	6	28	82	10	11	12	.290	.333	.370	.704	.081	.327	13	4	.309	95	-4	-3	+0	+2	+18	1.4
2018	22	INTL	3 teams	167	162	27	6	0	0	0	46	3	0	1	.167	.182	.204	.386	.037	.231	28	0	.171	-11	-21	-0	+0	+1	+5	-1.6
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	328	310	68	16	2	9	12	75	4	7	1	.219	.258	.371	.629	.152	.260	23	4	.273	67	-12	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.0
2020	24	MLB	New York Yankees	52	48	8	0	0	1	1	19	3	1	0	.167	.231	.229	.460	.062	.250	37	2	.205	15	-5	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.4
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	365	336	94	17	1	14	24	67	5	7	4	.280	.337	.461	.798	.182	.314	18	7	.344	121	+9	-0	+3	+4	+10	2.6
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	541	488	128	21	2	14	33	89	14	21	6	.262	.327	.400	.727	.137	.292	16	6	.317	101	+0	+2	+2	+2	+15	2.2
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	530	495	138	26	2	14	22	120	11	23	7	.279	.324	.424	.748	.145	.342	23	4	.325	107	+4	+2	+15	+2	+15	3.9
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	464	441	101	16	2	12	13	93	7	3	2	.229	.262	.356	.618	.127	.263	20	3	.274	68	-17	-0	+7	+2	+13	0.5
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	189	177	41	9	0	3	7	33	2	1	3	.232	.269	.333	.602	.102	.264	17	4	.264	60	-9	-1	-1	+1	+5	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	COL	379	354	84	15	1	9	16	76	6	8	2	.237	.282	.362	.643	.124	.274	20	4	.286	77	-10	+1	+4	+1	+11	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB	COL	364	340	79	14	1	8	15	74	6	6	1	.232	.277	.350	.627	.118	.273	20	4	.282	74	-11	+1	+1	+1	+10	0.3
2028	32	MLB	COL	345	323	75	13	1	8	14	72	5	4	1	.232	.275	.353	.628	.121	.272	21	4	.278	71	-11	+0	-0	+1	+10	-0.0
2029	33	MLB	COL	315	294	68	12	1	7	13	68	5	3	0	.231	.276	.350	.626	.119	.270	22	4	.272	66	-12	+1	-1	+1	+9	-0.2
2030	34	MLB	COL	271	254	57	10	1	5	11	61	4	1	0	.224	.268	.331	.598	.106	.268	23	4	.266	62	-12	+0	-2	+1	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5657	5274	1302	223	24	120	243	1117	96	121	53	.247	.292	.367	.659	.120	.291	20	4	.288	79	-135	+3	+27	+23	+160	8.0
/ 162G	—			650	606	150	26	3	14	28	128	11	14	6	.248	.293	.370	.663	.122	.291	20	4	.288	79	-16	+0	+3	+3	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	GCL Yankees2	199	176	49	11	5	2	12	30	8	7	5	.278	.352	.432	.784	.153	.324	15	6	.345	122	+5	-1	—	—	+6	1.0
2014	18	ROK	GCL Yankees1	23	22	6	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	.273	.304	.364	.668	.091	.333	17	4	.299	87	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2016	20	A+	Tampa Yankees	351	315	92	15	1	3	29	46	3	7	5	.292	.357	.375	.732	.083	.332	13	8	.329	110	+4	-1	—	—	+10	1.4
2016	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	148	140	40	3	1	5	8	21	0	11	3	.286	.324	.429	.753	.143	.307	14	5	.335	114	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2017	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	542	495	149	19	4	6	34	56	8	8	11	.301	.356	.392	.748	.091	.327	10	6	.335	114	+9	-3	—	—	+15	2.2
2017	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	84	79	27	2	1	1	3	19	2	3	1	.342	.381	.430	.811	.089	.441	23	4	.365	137	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	34	33	5	1	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	.152	.176	.182	.358	.030	.200	24	0	.166	-15	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2018	22	A+	Tampa Tarpons	47	45	10	2	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	.222	.239	.267	.506	.044	.270	19	0	.224	30	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	86	80	19	2	0	0	4	15	1	0	1	.237	.282	.263	.545	.025	.292	17	5	.250	49	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2019	23	MLB	New York Yankees	69	64	16	3	0	3	3	15	1	4	0	.250	.294	.438	.732	.188	.283	22	4	.318	102	+0	+1	+1	+1	+2	0.5
2019	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	259	241	64	17	2	8	14	50	3	3	1	.266	.314	.452	.766	.187	.304	19	5	.337	116	+5	+0	—	—	+7	1.2
2020	24	MLB	New York Yankees	52	48	8	0	0	1	1	19	3	1	0	.167	.231	.229	.460	.062	.250	37	2	.218	25	-4	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	132	121	33	4	0	7	9	23	2	1	0	.273	.333	.479	.813	.207	.286	17	7	.359	133	+5	+0	+3	+4	+4	1.6
2021	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	233	210	70	14	1	9	20	35	3	6	4	.333	.399	.538	.937	.205	.367	15	9	.412	174	+19	-0	—	—	+7	2.6
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	541	488	127	22	2	14	33	89	14	21	6	.260	.325	.400	.725	.139	.290	16	6	.322	105	+3	+2	+2	+2	+15	2.4
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	530	495	134	26	2	14	22	120	11	23	7	.271	.316	.416	.732	.145	.331	23	4	.325	107	+4	+2	+15	+2	+15	3.9
2024	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	381	364	79	15	2	9	10	76	5	2	2	.217	.248	.343	.591	.126	.249	20	3	.262	59	-18	-0	+7	+2	+11	0.1
2024	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	83	75	25	3	0	3	5	14	2	1	0	.333	.390	.493	.884	.160	.379	17	6	.389	155	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2025	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	165	154	39	9	0	3	6	26	2	1	3	.253	.290	.370	.660	.117	.281	16	4	.290	80	-4	-1	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2025	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	24	23	7	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	.304	.333	.348	.681	.043	.389	21	4	.309	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1870	1734	436	79	6	51	84	368	38	53	18	.251	.301	.392	.693	.141	.290	20	4	.308	94	-14	+3	+26	+11	+53	8.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Thairo Estrada (OGILVIE)	30	45	40	55	35	.235/.279/.359	.125	.274	9	8	20%	4%	77	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrián Sanchez 2021 · MLB	30	50→46	42→45	49→50	42	.241/.277/.351	.110	.282	9	15	18%	4%	72	-0.2	.242/.283/.349	.107	.297	9	11	21%	5%	75	-0.0	.244/.282/.343	.099	.301	6	9	21%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Jake Noll 2023 · MLB	29	47→51	47→50	52→45	41	.236/.275/.376	.140	.276	14	7	21%	4%	79	+0.3	.223/.268/.356	.133	.273	14	7	23%	5%	71	-0.3	.200/.247/.324	.125	.245	13	0	24%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Charlie Culberson 2019 · MLB	30	47→52	45	46→50	42	.236/.279/.361	.125	.295	13	9	24%	5%	76	+0.1	.246/.294/.401	.155	.314	17	9	26%	6%	94	+1.3	.246/.289/.382	.136	.317	13	10	26%	5%	83	+0.2
✕Juniel Querecuto 2023 · AAA	30	45→55	46→45	50	42	.228/.267/.357	.130	.273	13	12	22%	5%	71	-0.3	.221/.271/.347	.126	.283	14	13	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.210/.267/.327	.117	.273	15	13	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Kristopher Negrón 2016 · MLB	30	43→50	41→45	52→55	41	.210/.264/.309	.099	.275	9	14	27%	5%	57	-1.2	.219/.273/.336	.117	.292	11	17	28%	5%	68	-0.5	.225/.289/.349	.123	.323	14	14	32%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Carlos Orrantia 2013 · AAA	31	49→55	44→45	50→55	42	.242/.277/.360	.118	.284	12	16	20%	4%	75	-0.0	.243/.281/.348	.105	.302	9	16	22%	4%	74	-0.1	.243/.285/.329	.086	.308	7	12	22%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Christian Zazueta 2015 · AAA	30	48→55	44→50	48→60	35	.238/.262/.351	.113	.287	13	10	22%	2%	66	-0.6	.243/.267/.359	.116	.289	12	24	20%	2%	71	-0.3	.241/.264/.352	.110	.286	11	33	20%	2%	65	-0.5
✕Tim Lopes 2023 · MLB	29	41→51	46→45	50→55	41	.209/.264/.341	.131	.274	14	15	29%	6%	66	-0.6	.225/.293/.339	.114	.311	12	27	29%	8%	77	+0.1	.230/.306/.327	.098	.321	10	39	29%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Yamid Haad 2008 · MLB	30	44	45	48→40	42	.222/.261/.340	.118	.262	13	7	21%	5%	63	-0.8	.216/.257/.315	.099	.277	10	6	25%	5%	55	-1.4	.220/.260/.314	.094	.279	9	1	24%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Joe McEwing 2003 · MLB	30	47→55	46→45	46→50	44	.234/.286/.369	.135	.276	12	12	20%	5%	82	+0.5	.233/.289/.318	.085	.285	7	10	20%	7%	69	-0.4	.251/.284/.329	.077	.301	7	16	19%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Tommy Field 2017 · MLB	30	41→50	46→45	48→45	45	.210/.276/.342	.132	.256	14	7	24%	7%	72	-0.2	.201/.254/.311	.110	.252	11	7	24%	5%	53	-1.5	.184/.232/.273	.088	.234	7	5	24%	4%	31	-2.3
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	46	43→45	50→55	46	.226/.288/.333	.106	.286	11	16	24%	7%	73	-0.1	.218/.288/.375	.157	.282	19	14	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.199/.273/.380	.181	.248	24	14	30%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Brandon Harper 2006 · AAA	30	45	44→45	52→45	48	.223/.286/.343	.120	.250	12	10	16%	6%	76	+0.0	.213/.278/.317	.104	.249	9	8	18%	6%	66	-0.6	.190/.258/.272	.082	.227	6	5	18%	6%	42	-0.9
✕C.J. Hinojosa 2023 · AAA	29	48→54	46→45	47→45	42	.239/.282/.372	.133	.289	13	8	22%	5%	81	+0.4	.218/.259/.326	.108	.263	11	8	21%	5%	59	-1.1	.202/.242/.289	.088	.241	9	5	20%	4%	39	-1.6
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→53	44→45	46→45	43	.235/.283/.350	.115	.290	12	6	23%	6%	76	+0.0	.223/.277/.353	.130	.291	15	12	28%	6%	74	-0.1	.202/.262/.323	.120	.262	15	14	28%	7%	56	-0.5
✕J.J. Furmaniak 2009 · MLB	30	45→50	44→45	51→50	42	.224/.279/.333	.109	.292	12	19	27%	6%	70	-0.3	.218/.268/.308	.090	.275	7	11	22%	6%	58	-1.2	.210/.257/.286	.076	.263	4	10	21%	5%	45	-1.4
✕Javier Colina 2009 · AAA	30	46→52	44→45	48→45	43	.226/.268/.350	.124	.267	11	10	20%	5%	69	-0.4	.221/.260/.337	.116	.264	11	7	20%	5%	63	-0.9	.199/.234/.306	.107	.238	11	2	21%	4%	40	-1.0
✕Julius Matos 2005 · MLB	30	48→47	44→40	48→40	45	.239/.286/.351	.112	.275	13	8	19%	6%	77	+0.1	.229/.266/.320	.091	.269	8	6	18%	4%	60	-1.0	.227/.259/.294	.067	.270	5	3	18%	3%	47	-0.9
✕Luis Ordaz 2006 · AAA	30	50	41→40	48→50	44	.240/.274/.342	.102	.271	9	8	15%	4%	69	-0.4	.255/.283/.355	.100	.291	8	10	15%	3%	76	+0.0	.269/.295/.355	.086	.314	6	10	16%	3%	80	+0.2
✕Paul Hoover 2006 · AAA	30	43	43→45	50→45	43	.214/.269/.329	.115	.266	10	11	24%	6%	65	-0.7	.224/.275/.339	.115	.294	10	7	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.223/.273/.333	.109	.299	10	3	28%	6%	64	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)