Thairo Estrada — OGILVIE

Thairo Estrada2B Colorado Rockies

Age 30 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 357 proj PA

wRC+†vL 4048vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .277 / .361

PA357

HR8

SB6

K%20

BB%4

ISO125

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

5610.4%

xwOBA

250.279

POWER40

Barrel%

224.5

Avg EV

1086.1

Bat Spd

5471.8

EYE35

Chase%

1039.9%

SPEED55

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 546 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

133

413

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

237

278

▶R

ISO

115

126

▶R

BABIP

202

277

▶▶R

17.3%

19.1%

◀L

BB%

5.3%

2.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.8M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	GCL Yankees2	—	199	181	39	8	4	2	7	43	8	7	5	215	276	337	613	122	270	22	4	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK	GCL Yankees2	—	199	176	49	11	5	2	12	30	8	7	5	278	352	432	784	153	324	15	6	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	GCL Yankees1	—	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	182	217	227	445	45	250	26	4	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	GCL Yankees1	—	23	22	6	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	273	304	364	668	91	333	17	4	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	2 teams	—	499	466	123	18	2	9	26	94	3	18	8	264	307	369	676	105	312	19	5	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	2 teams	—	499	455	132	18	2	8	37	67	3	18	8	290	347	391	739	101	325	13	7	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	2 teams	—	626	583	165	23	3	7	28	82	10	11	12	283	327	369	696	86	317	13	4	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	2 teams	—	626	574	176	21	5	7	37	75	10	11	12	307	359	397	756	91	341	12	6	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	3 teams	—	167	162	27	6	0	0	0	46	3	0	1	167	182	204	386	37	231	28	0	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	3 teams	—	167	158	34	5	0	0	4	32	3	0	1	215	248	247	495	32	268	19	2	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	328	310	67	16	2	8	12	74	4	7	1	216	255	358	613	142	258	23	4	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	328	305	80	20	2	11	17	65	4	7	1	262	310	449	759	187	300	20	5	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	52	48	8	0	0	1	1	19	3	1	0	167	231	229	460	62	250	37	2	213	21	-5	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.3
2020	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	52	48	8	0	0	1	1	19	3	1	0	167	231	229	460	62	250	37	2	218	25	-4	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	365	336	99	19	1	15	24	62	5	7	4	295	351	491	842	196	324	17	7	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	365	331	103	18	1	16	29	58	5	7	4	311	375	517	892	205	339	16	8	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	541	488	132	23	2	15	33	89	14	21	6	270	335	418	753	148	301	16	6	331	111	+7	+2	+2	+2	+15	2.8
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	541	488	127	22	2	14	33	89	14	21	6	260	325	400	725	139	290	16	6	322	105	+3	+2	+2	+2	+15	2.4
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	530	495	140	28	2	15	22	120	11	23	7	283	328	438	766	156	345	23	4	333	113	+8	+2	+15	+2	+15	4.2
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	530	495	134	26	2	14	22	120	11	23	7	271	316	416	732	145	331	23	4	325	107	+4	+2	+15	+2	+15	3.8
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	464	441	106	18	2	12	13	92	7	3	2	240	273	372	645	132	277	20	3	282	74	-13	-0	+7	+2	+13	0.8
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	464	439	104	18	2	12	15	90	7	3	2	237	273	369	642	132	271	19	3	285	76	-13	-0	+7	+2	+13	0.9
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	189	177	39	8	0	2	7	33	2	1	3	220	258	299	557	79	255	17	4	246	46	-11	-1	-1	+1	+5	-0.7
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	189	177	46	10	0	3	7	31	2	1	3	260	296	367	663	107	295	16	4	293	82	-4	-1	-1	+1	+5	0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	COL	—	357	335	80	15	1	8	14	70	5	6	1	239	280	361	641	122	277	20	4	286	77	-9	+1	+3	+1	+10	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	COL	100%	342	321	76	14	1	8	13	68	5	5	1	237	277	361	639	125	274	20	4	281	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.2
2027	31	MLB	COL	100%	342	321	81	15	1	9	13	68	5	5	1	252	292	389	681	137	295	20	4	292	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2212	2055	517	94	7	60	97	436	43	58	19	252	299	392	691	140	291	20	4	305	92	-21	+4	+26	+13	+63	8.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	153	28	2	18	29	128	13	17	6	253	302	396	698	142	292	20	4	305	92	-6	+1	+8	+4	+18	2.5
Career	—			—	4682	4365	1105	197	20	102	201	898	80	110	51	253	298	378	676	124	296	19	4	295	84	-84	+2	+29	+19	+133	10.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	153	27	3	14	28	125	11	15	7	252	298	376	674	124	296	19	4	295	84	-12	+0	+4	+3	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	GCL Yankees2	—	199	176	49	11	5	2	12	30	8	7	5	278	352	432	784	153	324	15	6	345	122	+5	-1	—	—	+6	1.0
2014	18	ROK	GCL Yankees1	—	23	22	6	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	273	304	364	668	91	333	17	4	299	87	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2016	20	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	351	315	92	15	1	3	29	46	3	7	5	292	357	375	732	83	332	13	8	329	110	+4	-1	—	—	+10	1.4
2016	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	148	140	40	3	1	5	8	21	0	11	3	286	324	429	753	143	307	14	5	335	114	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2017	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	542	495	149	19	4	6	34	56	8	8	11	301	356	392	748	91	327	10	6	335	114	+9	-3	—	—	+15	2.2
2017	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	84	79	27	2	1	1	3	19	2	3	1	342	381	430	811	89	441	23	4	365	137	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	34	33	5	1	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	152	176	182	358	30	200	24	0	166	-15	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2018	22	A+	Tampa Tarpons	—	47	45	10	2	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	222	239	267	506	44	270	19	0	224	30	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	86	80	19	2	0	0	4	15	1	0	1	237	282	263	545	25	292	17	5	250	49	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2019	23	MLB	New York Yankees	—	69	64	16	3	0	3	3	15	1	4	0	250	294	438	732	188	283	22	4	318	102	+0	+1	+1	+1	+2	0.5
2019	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	259	241	64	17	2	8	14	50	3	3	1	266	314	452	766	187	304	19	5	337	116	+5	+0	—	—	+7	1.2
2020	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	52	48	8	0	0	1	1	19	3	1	0	167	231	229	460	62	250	37	2	218	25	-4	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	132	121	33	4	0	7	9	23	2	1	0	273	333	479	813	207	286	17	7	359	133	+5	+0	+3	+4	+4	1.6
2021	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	233	210	70	14	1	9	20	35	3	6	4	333	399	538	937	205	367	15	9	412	174	+19	-0	—	—	+7	2.6
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	541	488	127	22	2	14	33	89	14	21	6	260	325	400	725	139	290	16	6	322	105	+3	+2	+2	+2	+15	2.4
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	530	495	134	26	2	14	22	120	11	23	7	271	316	416	732	145	331	23	4	325	107	+4	+2	+15	+2	+15	3.8
2024	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	381	364	79	15	2	9	10	76	5	2	2	217	248	343	591	126	249	20	3	262	59	-18	-0	+7	+2	+11	0.1
2024	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	83	75	25	3	0	3	5	14	2	1	0	333	390	493	884	160	379	17	6	389	155	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2025	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	165	154	39	9	0	3	6	26	2	1	3	253	290	370	660	117	281	16	4	290	80	-4	-1	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2025	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	24	23	7	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	304	333	348	681	43	389	21	4	309	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1870	1734	436	79	6	51	84	368	38	53	18	251	301	392	693	141	290	20	4	308	94	-14	+3	+26	+11	+53	8.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Juan Lagareslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,508 PA	9	2,508	31	45	250	291	360	+8	+49	7.4	7.7
	/162	664	8	12	250	291	360	+2.1	+13.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#3Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	8	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
	/162	664	12	20	241	298	382	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
#4Mike Avileslast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,234 PA	10	3,234	60	78	261	295	376	+13	+4	5.8	7.2
	/162	664	12	16	261	295	376	+2.7	+0.8	1.2	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,569	67	64	249	292	385	+9	+37	4.9	5.2
	/162	664	17	17	249	292	385	+2.4	+9.6	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Leury Garcíalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,387 PA	9	2,387	34	63	253	293	351	+5	+10	3.1	4.3
	/162	664	9	18	253	293	351	+1.4	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 6
#6Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	6	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	16	25	252	281	387	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Thairo Estrada (OGILVIE)	30	45	40	55	35	237/277/361	124	277	8	6	20%	4%	77	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrián Sanchez 2021 · MLB	30	50→45	42→45	49→50	42	241/277/349	109	283	9	14	19%	4%	72	-0.2	243/284/351	108	298	8	11	21%	5%	76	+0.0	249/287/352	103	306	6	9	20%	5%	71	-0.1
✕Jake Noll 2023 · MLB	29	47→50	47→50	52→45	41	237/277/379	142	276	14	7	20%	4%	81	+0.4	221/268/351	130	272	13	7	23%	5%	69	-0.4	191/241/303	113	236	12	0	25%	5%	43	-0.8
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→52	45	47→45	42	235/280/356	122	290	13	7	24%	5%	76	+0.0	222/276/349	127	293	14	13	28%	6%	72	-0.2	202/260/316	113	267	14	14	29%	6%	53	-0.6
✕Charlie Culberson 2019 · MLB	30	48→49	46→45	47→50	42	240/285/369	129	301	13	9	25%	5%	81	+0.4	246/295/401	155	315	17	9	26%	6%	94	+1.3	242/286/378	136	311	13	10	26%	5%	81	+0.1
✕Yamid Haad 2008 · MLB	30	45	44→45	48→40	42	224/264/337	113	268	12	7	22%	5%	64	-0.8	217/258/316	99	280	10	5	25%	5%	56	-1.3	220/260/315	95	282	9	1	25%	5%	55	-0.5
✕Joe McEwing 2003 · MLB	30	47→55	46→45	46→50	43	233/286/366	133	276	12	12	20%	5%	82	+0.5	233/288/314	81	285	6	10	20%	7%	68	-0.5	251/284/329	77	301	7	16	19%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Josh Wilson 2012 · MLB	31	48→50	41→45	50	42	231/279/336	104	280	7	8	20%	4%	70	-0.3	202/250/299	97	271	8	7	27%	5%	48	-1.9	210/255/282	72	293	6	7	29%	3%	44	-1.2
✕Luis Ordaz 2006 · AAA	30	50	41→40	48→50	44	242/274/341	99	271	8	7	15%	4%	69	-0.4	256/283/355	99	293	8	10	15%	3%	76	+0.1	268/295/355	86	314	6	10	16%	3%	80	+0.2
✕C.J. Hinojosa 2023 · AAA	29	46→56	46→45	47→45	42	232/277/361	129	281	13	8	23%	5%	76	+0.0	213/256/317	104	257	10	8	21%	5%	55	-1.4	203/243/290	87	241	9	5	20%	4%	39	-1.5
✕Austin Wynns 2021 · MLB	30	45→51	43→45	46→30	44	222/272/320	98	269	12	4	22%	6%	63	-0.8	237/299/354	117	290	13	5	22%	7%	84	+0.6	235/302/338	104	290	12	3	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Brandon Harper 2006 · AAA	30	45	44→45	52→45	48	222/286/341	119	248	12	9	16%	6%	75	-0.0	210/275/312	102	247	9	8	18%	6%	63	-0.8	190/258/272	82	227	6	5	18%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Javier Colina 2009 · AAA	30	47→52	44→45	48→45	44	233/276/357	124	271	11	10	18%	5%	74	-0.1	219/258/332	113	262	11	6	20%	5%	60	-1.0	200/235/304	104	240	10	2	21%	4%	41	-1.0
✕Christian Zazueta 2015 · AAA	30	46→55	43→50	49→60	35	231/255/338	107	279	12	10	22%	2%	59	-1.1	239/264/355	116	286	12	26	21%	2%	68	-0.5	237/260/346	109	282	11	33	20%	2%	62	-0.7
✕Julius Matos 2005 · MLB	30	48→47	46→40	48→40	45	241/288/362	121	276	15	9	19%	6%	81	+0.4	230/268/319	89	272	8	6	18%	4%	60	-1.0	228/259/295	67	270	5	3	18%	3%	47	-0.9
✕Juniel Querecuto 2023 · AAA	30	45→55	45	50	42	225/264/352	127	273	12	12	23%	5%	68	-0.5	219/269/345	126	283	14	13	27%	6%	69	-0.4	205/262/325	120	265	15	13	28%	6%	57	-0.9
✕Jett Bandy 2019 · MLB	29	43	48→50	47→45	41	218/283/355	137	263	16	6	24%	5%	79	+0.3	206/269/342	136	270	17	5	30%	5%	69	-0.4	174/240/294	120	233	17	0	33%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Tommy Field 2017 · MLB	30	40→50	47→45	48→45	46	207/275/338	131	249	15	6	24%	7%	70	-0.3	201/253/310	109	252	11	7	24%	5%	53	-1.5	180/226/266	87	227	7	5	24%	4%	27	-2.5
✕Tim Lopes 2023 · MLB	29	40→50	47→45	50→55	42	206/265/339	133	269	14	15	29%	6%	66	-0.6	229/300/340	111	321	11	28	30%	9%	80	+0.4	237/316/331	94	338	9	39	30%	10%	80	+0.3
✕Humberto Sosa 2016 · AAA	30	46→49	45→50	45	42	232/268/345	113	277	13	4	22%	5%	67	-0.5	219/263/324	105	277	12	6	25%	5%	60	-1.0	225/277/382	157	272	22	2	26%	6%	81	+0.1
✕Tomas De La Rosa 2007 · MLB	29	51→49	43→45	47→50	45	246/291/356	109	280	10	13	16%	5%	80	+0.4	237/278/352	115	275	11	17	18%	5%	74	-0.1	235/274/345	110	270	10	21	17%	5%	66	-0.5