Adrián Sanchez

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1990-08-16

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	28	AAWSH	282	.316/.371/.469	6	11	86	—	.265/.302/.375
2019	28	MLBWSH	32	.226/.250/.226	0	0	35	-0.1
2021	30	AAAWSH	174	.314/.363/.447	4	5	84	—	.270/.304/.368
2021	30	MLBWSH	38	.257/.316/.314	0	0	69	0.3
2022	31	AAAWSH	262	.239/.291/.350	2	3	47	—	.209/.245/.297
2023	32	No MLB games played
2024	33	No MLB games played
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Power38Speed38Eye45

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	16	ROK	DSL Nationals 1	—	168	145	39	11	1	1	12	25	7	4	3	269	354	379	733	110	319	15	7	327	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK	DSL Nationals 1	—	262	232	64	13	1	3	19	37	3	21	3	276	339	379	718	103	311	14	7	315	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	74	65	16	7	0	0	3	6	0	3	0	246	279	354	633	108	262	8	4	260	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	107	104	33	1	0	1	0	18	2	0	2	317	330	356	686	38	376	17	0	307	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	127	119	45	10	0	3	2	15	2	4	2	378	398	538	936	160	412	12	2	401	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	577	538	141	30	5	3	17	71	10	25	12	262	297	353	651	91	295	12	3	286	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	400	375	101	20	3	3	11	59	5	25	16	269	299	363	662	93	312	15	3	290	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	56	54	19	2	0	1	1	4	1	1	3	352	375	444	819	93	367	7	2	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	463	428	103	14	4	1	17	61	6	8	4	241	279	299	578	58	277	13	4	257	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	54	51	11	3	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	216	245	275	520	59	268	19	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	298	269	60	6	0	3	23	42	3	7	3	223	292	279	570	56	252	14	8	263	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	106	96	26	3	1	0	5	14	2	4	1	271	320	323	643	52	306	13	5	286	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	194	179	44	11	1	1	11	22	0	3	2	246	289	335	625	89	274	11	6	276	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	73	67	23	5	0	1	5	6	0	5	1	343	389	463	852	119	367	8	7	375	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	52	51	11	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	216	231	235	466	20	250	13	2	212	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	325	299	76	17	3	0	14	42	5	6	1	254	299	331	630	77	292	13	4	279	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	75	71	19	7	0	0	1	25	1	0	2	268	288	366	654	99	413	33	1	284	77	-2	-1	+2	+1	+2	0.2
2017	26	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	283	258	63	15	1	4	19	47	1	4	1	244	299	357	655	112	281	17	7	290	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	17	16	4	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	250	294	438	732	188	250	18	6	323	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	59	58	16	2	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	276	288	345	633	69	320	14	2	282	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
2018	27	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	295	269	63	15	2	4	16	42	3	10	6	234	285	349	634	115	260	14	5	279	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	16	15	7	2	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	467	500	933	1.433	467	462	6	6	605	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	32	31	7	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	226	250	226	476		333	31	3	220	35	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2019	28	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	282	256	81	19	1	6	19	39	3	11	5	316	371	469	839	152	349	14	7	368	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	38	35	9	2	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	257	316	314	630	57	290	11	8	289	69	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2021	30	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	174	159	50	9	0	4	11	28	1	5	2	314	363	447	809	132	362	16	6	355	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	262	243	58	17	2	2	18	51	0	3	1	239	291	350	641	111	295	19	7	287	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	204	195	51	11	1	0	6	47	1	0	2	262	287	328	615	67	345	23	3	274	72	-7	-1	+5	+5	+4	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	16	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	168	148	27	7	1	0	9	31	7	4	3	182	262	243	505	61	218	18	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	262	238	42	8	1	1	13	45	3	21	3	176	228	231	459	55	201	17	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	74	66	14	6	0	0	2	9	0	3	0	212	235	303	538	91	216	12	3	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	107	104	32	1	0	1	0	23	2	0	2	308	321	346	667	38	374	21	0	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	127	120	34	7	0	2	1	22	2	4	2	283	301	392	692	108	315	17	1	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	577	544	122	21	4	3	11	95	10	25	12	224	253	294	547	70	258	16	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	400	379	87	17	2	2	7	84	5	25	16	230	253	301	554	71	281	21	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	463	435	94	12	3	1	10	93	6	8	4	216	244	264	508	48	259	20	2	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	298	276	60	5	0	2	16	54	3	7	3	217	268	257	525	40	256	18	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	106	98	23	2	1	0	3	20	2	4	1	235	272	276	547	41	274	19	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	194	183	46	10	1	1	7	26	0	3	2	251	279	333	612	82	274	13	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	73	70	21	4	0	1	2	8	0	5	1	300	319	400	719	100	324	11	3	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	52	51	9	1	0	0	1	9	0	1	0	176	192	196	388	20	214	17	2	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	325	303	72	16	3	0	10	52	5	6	1	238	274	310	584	73	272	16	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	75	71	19	7	0	0	1	25	1	0	2	268	288	366	654	99	413	33	1	282	77	-2	-1	+2	+1	+2	0.2
2017	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	283	264	57	12	1	3	13	56	1	4	1	216	255	303	558	87	249	20	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	17	17	4	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	235	235	412	647	176	229	24	0	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	59	58	16	2	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	276	288	345	633	69	320	14	2	287	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
2018	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	295	275	58	14	2	3	10	48	3	10	6	211	247	309	556	98	236	16	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	16	15	5	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	333	375	733	1.108	400	327	6	6	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	32	31	7	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	226	250	226	476		333	31	3	220	35	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2019	28	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	282	264	70	15	1	4	11	48	3	11	5	265	302	375	677	110	299	17	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	38	36	9	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	250	289	306	595	56	290	11	5	270	69	-1	+0	+3	+1	+1	0.3
2021	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	174	163	44	7	0	3	7	34	1	5	2	270	304	368	672	98	325	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	262	249	52	15	2	1	12	58	0	3	1	209	245	297	542	88	266	22	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	16	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	168	148	27	7	1	0	9	31	7	4	3	182	262	243	505	61	231	18	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	16	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals 1	—	168	145	39	11	1	1	12	25	7	4	3	269	354	379	733	110	319	15	7	327	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	262	238	42	8	1	1	13	45	3	21	3	176	228	231	459	55	209	17	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals 1	—	262	232	64	13	1	3	19	37	3	21	3	276	339	379	718	103	311	14	7	315	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	74	66	14	6	0	0	2	9	0	3	0	212	235	303	538	91	237	12	3	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	74	65	16	7	0	0	3	6	0	3	0	246	279	354	633	108	262	8	4	260	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	234	224	66	8	0	3	1	45	4	4	4	295	310	371	681	76	356	19	0	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	234	223	78	11	0	4	2	33	4	4	4	350	367	453	820	103	396	14	1	358	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	577	544	122	21	4	3	11	95	10	25	12	224	253	294	547	70	264	16	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	577	538	141	30	5	3	17	71	10	25	12	262	297	353	651	91	295	12	3	286	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	456	433	100	19	2	3	8	96	6	26	19	231	255	305	560	74	290	21	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	456	429	120	22	3	4	12	63	6	26	19	280	309	373	682	93	320	14	3	299	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	517	486	104	13	3	1	11	104	7	8	4	214	242	259	501	45	269	20	2	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	517	479	114	17	4	1	18	71	7	8	4	238	276	296	572	58	276	14	3	254	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	404	374	83	7	1	2	19	74	5	11	4	222	269	262	531	40	267	18	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	404	365	86	9	1	3	28	56	5	11	4	236	299	290	589	55	267	14	7	269	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	267	254	66	14	1	2	8	35	0	8	3	260	282	346	629	87	294	13	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	267	246	67	16	1	2	16	28	0	8	3	272	317	370	687	98	300	10	6	303	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	377	355	81	17	3	0	10	61	5	7	1	228	259	293	552	65	273	16	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	377	350	87	18	3	0	15	49	5	7	1	249	289	317	606	69	286	13	4	270	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	375	352	79	19	1	4	14	85	2	4	3	224	258	318	576	94	282	23	4	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	375	345	86	22	1	5	21	75	2	4	3	249	296	362	659	113	302	20	6	290	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	370	348	79	17	4	4	12	58	3	12	6	227	259	333	592	106	259	16	3	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	370	342	86	19	4	5	18	51	3	12	6	251	295	374	669	123	279	14	5	293	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	314	295	77	15	1	4	12	58	3	11	5	261	297	359	656	98	308	18	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	314	287	88	19	1	6	20	49	3	11	5	307	358	443	801	136	347	16	6	353	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	212	199	53	9	0	3	9	38	1	5	2	266	301	357	658	90	316	18	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	212	194	59	11	0	4	14	32	1	5	2	304	354	423	777	119	348	15	7	343	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	262	249	52	15	2	1	12	58	0	3	1	209	245	297	542	88	268	22	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	262	243	58	17	2	2	18	51	0	3	1	239	291	350	641	111	295	19	7	287	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	16	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	168	150	27	7	1	0	9	31	7	4	3	180	262	240	502	60	218	18	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals 1	—	262	244	42	8	1	1	13	45	3	21	3	172	228	225	454	53	201	17	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	74	72	14	6	0	0	2	9	0	3	0	194	235	278	513	83	216	12	3	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	234	227	66	8	0	3	1	45	4	4	4	291	310	366	676	75	342	19	0	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	577	551	122	21	4	3	11	95	10	25	12	221	253	290	543	69	258	16	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	456	439	100	19	2	3	8	96	6	26	19	228	255	301	556	73	281	21	2	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	517	494	104	13	3	1	11	104	7	8	4	211	242	255	497	45	259	20	2	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	404	377	83	7	1	2	19	74	5	11	4	220	269	260	529	40	261	18	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	267	257	66	14	1	2	8	35	0	8	3	257	282	342	625	86	288	13	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	377	359	81	17	3	0	10	61	5	7	1	226	259	290	549	64	264	16	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	375	356	79	19	1	4	14	85	2	4	3	222	258	315	573	93	281	23	4	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	370	352	79	17	4	4	12	58	3	12	6	224	259	330	588	105	253	16	3	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	314	296	77	15	1	4	12	58	3	11	5	260	297	358	655	98	302	18	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	212	200	53	9	0	3	9	38	1	5	2	265	301	355	656	90	319	18	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	262	248	52	15	2	1	12	58	0	3	1	210	245	298	544	89	266	22	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	204	195	51	11	1	0	6	47	1	0	2	262	287	328	615	67	345	23	3	274	52	-7	-1	+5	+5	+4	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	621	162	35	3	0	19	150	3	0	6	261	286	327	613	66	344	23	3	274	52	-22	-3	+16	+14	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4869	4565	1045	195	24	31	151	892	56	152	70	229	262	303	565	74	276	18	3	245	52	-7	-1	+5	+5	+4	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	609	139	26	3	4	20	119	7	20	9	228	261	300	561	72	275	18	3	245	52	-22	-3	+16	+14	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 262 PAwOBA .280 → .237 (−42)K% 19.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.47%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.87%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.64%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.27%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.037	×0.952	17.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.037	×0.952	7.80%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷0.913	×0.970	×1.037	×0.952	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	1.04%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .280 → .237; ISO .111 → .094; BABIP .295 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 174 PAwOBA .345 → .292 (−54)K% 16.1% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.09%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.32%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.14%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.52%
Singles /BIP	28.24%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.031	×0.962	26.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.87%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.031	×0.962	5.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.031	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.05%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.12%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .345 → .292; ISO .132 → .099; BABIP .362 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 282 PAwOBA .361 → .296 (−65)K% 13.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.83%	÷0.996	×1.220	—	—	16.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.03%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.958	3.84%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.87%
Singles /BIP	25.35%	÷0.991	×0.970	×0.950	×0.958	22.58%
Doubles /BIP	8.76%	÷0.985	×0.860	×0.950	×0.958	6.96%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.950	×0.958	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	2.76%	÷1.111	×0.780	—	×0.958	1.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .296; ISO .152 → .114; BABIP .349 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 295 PAwOBA .272 → .242 (−30)K% 14.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.24%	÷1.044	×1.200	—	—	16.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.75%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.40%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.95%
Singles /BIP	18.50%	÷1.044	×0.930	×1.024	×0.992	16.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.61%	÷0.933	×0.830	×1.024	×0.992	5.97%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.024	×0.992	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	1.76%	÷1.205	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.22%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .272 → .242; ISO .115 → .100; BABIP .260 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Nationals · 16 PAwOBA .587 → .415 (−172)K% 6.2% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	9.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.64%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	16.52%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	9.67%
Triples /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	4.83%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	5.24%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .587 → .415; ISO .467 → .327; BABIP .462 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 283 PAwOBA .285 → .243 (−43)K% 16.6% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.61%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.71%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.50%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.33%
Singles /BIP	20.38%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.998	×1.003	19.02%
Doubles /BIP	7.11%	÷1.081	×0.830	×0.998	×1.003	5.46%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.998	×1.003	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.90%	÷0.980	×0.840	—	×1.003	1.63%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .285 → .243; ISO .112 → .092; BABIP .281 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 17 PAwOBA .290 → .261 (−30)K% 17.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.974	×0.700	—	×0.978	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.016	×0.970	—	×0.978	21.54%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.998	×0.860	—	×0.978	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.906	×0.950	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×0.978	6.05%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .290 → .261; ISO .188 → .152; BABIP .250 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 325 PAwOBA .275 → .248 (−26)K% 12.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.92%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.31%	÷0.992	×0.700	—	×0.988	3.00%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	1.29%
Singles /BIP	21.79%	÷1.029	×0.970	×1.006	×0.988	20.42%
Doubles /BIP	6.61%	÷0.922	×0.860	×1.006	×0.988	6.13%
Triples /BIP	1.17%	÷1.137	×0.950	×1.006	×0.988	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.445	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .275 → .248; ISO .077 → .070; BABIP .292 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).