C.J. Hinojosa
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAASD | 519 | .291/.363/.482 | 17 | 8 | 73 | — | .226/.281/.348 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 406 | .233/.281/.342 | 8 | 5 | 41 | — | .210/.239/.297 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAATB | 387 | .223/.286/.329 | 7 | 3 | 35 | — | .187/.236/.265 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 251 | 226 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 315 | 336 | 651 | 88 | 291 | 17 | 8 | 294 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 302 | 260 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 296 | 382 | 442 | 824 | 146 | 336 | 15 | 12 | 362 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 417 | 373 | 99 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 265 | 325 | 340 | 666 | 75 | 286 | 10 | 7 | 296 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 283 | 253 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 261 | 330 | 360 | 689 | 99 | 281 | 10 | 8 | 309 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 28 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 357 | 346 | 703 | 38 | 400 | 21 | 7 | 322 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 54 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 149 | 245 | 234 | 479 | 85 | 176 | 22 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 460 | 415 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 61 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 280 | 341 | 400 | 741 | 120 | 309 | 13 | 8 | 329 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 443 | 414 | 131 | 35 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 77 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 316 | 354 | 481 | 835 | 164 | 364 | 17 | 5 | 365 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 519 | 461 | 134 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 86 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 291 | 363 | 482 | 844 | 191 | 322 | 17 | 9 | 369 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 360 | 336 | 82 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 59 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 244 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 113 | 275 | 16 | 6 | 285 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 46 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 239 | 220 | 459 | 73 | 172 | 24 | 11 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 350 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 70 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 286 | 329 | 615 | 106 | 257 | 18 | 6 | 276 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 251 | 234 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 270 | 295 | 565 | 68 | 280 | 22 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 302 | 270 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 256 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 122 | 301 | 21 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 417 | 382 | 96 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 251 | 296 | 317 | 612 | 65 | 270 | 13 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 283 | 260 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 250 | 301 | 342 | 643 | 92 | 271 | 12 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 28 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 286 | 296 | 582 | 37 | 360 | 29 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 460 | 430 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 235 | 275 | 326 | 601 | 91 | 265 | 17 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 443 | 421 | 118 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 92 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 280 | 308 | 413 | 722 | 133 | 333 | 21 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 519 | 477 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 107 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 281 | 348 | 629 | 122 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 360 | 343 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 68 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 239 | 297 | 536 | 87 | 240 | 19 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 358 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 187 | 236 | 265 | 502 | 78 | 223 | 21 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 504 | 122 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 116 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 242 | 298 | 341 | 639 | 99 | 296 | 21 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 553 | 486 | 133 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 274 | 351 | 393 | 744 | 119 | 316 | 16 | 10 | 331 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 417 | 382 | 96 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 251 | 296 | 317 | 612 | 65 | 280 | 13 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 417 | 373 | 99 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 265 | 325 | 340 | 666 | 75 | 286 | 10 | 7 | 296 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 365 | 335 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 248 | 300 | 328 | 628 | 81 | 283 | 14 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 365 | 326 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 248 | 319 | 340 | 660 | 92 | 277 | 13 | 8 | 298 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 460 | 430 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 235 | 275 | 326 | 601 | 91 | 270 | 17 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 460 | 415 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 61 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 280 | 341 | 400 | 741 | 120 | 309 | 13 | 8 | 329 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 443 | 421 | 118 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 92 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 280 | 308 | 413 | 722 | 133 | 338 | 21 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 443 | 414 | 131 | 35 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 77 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 316 | 354 | 481 | 835 | 164 | 364 | 17 | 5 | 365 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 519 | 477 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 107 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 281 | 348 | 629 | 122 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 519 | 461 | 134 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 86 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 291 | 363 | 482 | 844 | 191 | 322 | 17 | 9 | 369 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 387 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 204 | 234 | 284 | 518 | 80 | 240 | 19 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 377 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 70 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 233 | 281 | 342 | 623 | 109 | 265 | 17 | 6 | 278 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 358 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 187 | 236 | 265 | 502 | 78 | 227 | 21 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 350 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 70 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 286 | 329 | 615 | 106 | 257 | 18 | 6 | 276 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 508 | 122 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 116 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 240 | 298 | 339 | 636 | 98 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 417 | 390 | 96 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 296 | 310 | 606 | 64 | 270 | 13 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 365 | 337 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 246 | 300 | 326 | 626 | 80 | 279 | 14 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 460 | 433 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 233 | 275 | 323 | 599 | 90 | 265 | 17 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 443 | 423 | 118 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 92 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 279 | 308 | 411 | 720 | 132 | 333 | 21 | 4 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 519 | 478 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 107 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 281 | 347 | 628 | 121 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 388 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 204 | 234 | 284 | 517 | 80 | 240 | 19 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 361 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 236 | 263 | 499 | 78 | 223 | 21 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 387 | 361 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 236 | 263 | 499 | 78 | 223 | 21 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3550 | 3294 | 774 | 145 | 11 | 49 | 183 | 656 | 21 | 36 | 27 | 235 | 280 | 330 | 610 | 95 | 277 | 18 | 5 | 268 | 67 | -138 | -4 | +0 | +13 | +77 | -5.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 142 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 120 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 235 | 281 | 332 | 613 | 96 | 277 | 18 | 5 | 268 | 67 | -25 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 387 PAwOBA .271 → .220 (−50)K% 18.1% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.09% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.46% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×0.972 | 17.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×0.972 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×0.972 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .271 → .220; ISO .106 → .076; BABIP .257 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 360 PAwOBA .280 → .231 (−49)K% 16.4% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.39% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 3.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.66% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.69% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .280 → .231; ISO .113 → .086; BABIP .275 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 519 PAwOBA .361 → .276 (−85)K% 16.6% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.57% | ÷0.959 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.87% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 19.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.80% | ÷1.133 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.53% | ÷1.138 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .361 → .276; ISO .191 → .127; BABIP .322 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 443 PAwOBA .357 → .311 (−46)K% 17.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.38% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.97% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 23.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.39% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 9.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .357 → .311; ISO .164 → .136; BABIP .364 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 460 PAwOBA .321 → .266 (−55)K% 13.3% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.26% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.83% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.45% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .266; ISO .120 → .096; BABIP .309 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 283 PAwOBA .303 → .279 (−24)K% 9.9% → 12.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.89% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.48% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.22% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.869 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .303 → .279; ISO .099 → .091; BABIP .281 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+San Jose Giants · 28 PAwOBA .314 → .251 (−63)K% 21.4% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.959 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.971 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 31.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .251; ISO .038 → .029; BABIP .400 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 417 PAwOBA .291 → .267 (−24)K% 10.1% → 13.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.07% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 23.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.096 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.21% | ÷0.848 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .291 → .267; ISO .075 → .066; BABIP .286 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .