Drew Rasmussen
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9182vR 73
ERA3.10
FIP3.32
K%24.4%
BB%5.2%
K-BB%19.3%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p810.282
CT+3.1 (31%)
CH (12%)
SL (3%)
SI (22%)
CU (5%)
FB (49%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 23 | 74 | 303 | 96 | 31 | 4 | 85% | 2.8 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.15 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 23 | 74 | 303 | 96 | 31 | 4 | 85% | 2.8 | 31.7% | 10.2% | 21.5% | 1.3% | 3.15 | 2.47 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 4.4% | 5.87 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 5.87 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 11 | 87 | 349 | 96 | 25 | 5 | 26% | 2.0 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 16.3% | 1.7% | 2.47 | 2.99 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 11 | 87 | 349 | 96 | 25 | 5 | 26% | 2.0 | 27.5% | 7.2% | 20.3% | 1.4% | 2.47 | 2.50 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 146 | 584 | 125 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 2.84 | 3.26 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 146 | 584 | 125 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 2.84 | 3.18 | +3.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 8 | 45 | 177 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 1.2% | 2.62 | 2.30 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 8 | 45 | 177 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 1.1% | 2.62 | 2.32 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 6 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 29% | 1.7 | 30.2% | 5.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 1.21 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 6 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 29% | 1.7 | 28.9% | 4.0% | 24.8% | 1.3% | 4.00 | 1.93 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 150 | 585 | 127 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 2.76 | 3.83 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 150 | 585 | 127 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 2.76 | 3.69 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 18 | 18 | 99 | 392 | 98 | 17 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 20.7% | 3.1% | 3.26 | 3.22 | +2.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 68 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 5.2% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 3.10 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 68 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 5.2% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.06 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 166 | 672 | 166 | 31 | 20 | — | — | 24.8% | 4.7% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 3.20 | 3.26 | +4.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 166 | 699 | 166 | 31 | 20 | — | — | 23.8% | 4.5% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 3.24 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 114 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 5.6% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 3.98 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 106 | 446 | 101 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 96 | 406 | 88 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 3.8% | 4.36 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 86 | 364 | 76 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 70 | 22 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 4.5% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 21 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 5.19 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 114 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 5.6% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 3.74 | 3.93 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 101 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 88 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.30 | 4.50 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 75 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 4.0% | 4.62 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 70 | 22 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 4.80 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 58 | 21 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 4.8% | 5.12 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 251 | 202 | 1173 | 4819 | 1101 | 298 | 149 | 80% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 3.61 | 3.65 | +24.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 34 | 200 | 822 | 188 | 51 | 25 | 80% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 3.61 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 188 | 125 | 653 | 2610 | 620 | 176 | 62 | 66% | 3.5 | 23.8% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 2.99 | 3.24 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 38 | 200 | 799 | 190 | 54 | 19 | 66% | 3.5 | 23.8% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 2.99 | 3.24 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Rasmussen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.89 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.25 | 22.6% | 16.6% | 317 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Jarrett Grube R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 60 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 58 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 57 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 56 |
| Jason Hammel R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 56 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .240 | 3.43 | 27.8% | 22.0% | 173 | -0.45 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 56 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 56 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 55 |
| Bruce Billings R 2024 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.01 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 0.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 121 | 55 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 54 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 54 |
| Kevin Herget R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.66 | 21.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .332 | 3.83 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 179 | +0.17 | 2.17 | 705 | 54 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 53 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 53 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.96 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .325 | 3.97 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.01 | 3.60 | 1,689 | 53 |
| Casey Lawrence R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .305 | 3.98 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 86 | +0.06 | 3.50 | 1,320 | 51 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 51 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 50 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | .295 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.06 | 3.06 | 1,275 | 49 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 49 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 96 | 22.2% | 6.5% | 1.44 | 4.27 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Ian Kennedy ('22) | 7 | 115 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 1.64 | 4.32 |
| Mike Minor ('22) | 6 | 126 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 1.44 | 4.38 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |