Drew Rasmussen — OGILVIE

Drew Rasmussen P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION160 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8779vR 71

ERA2.86

FIP3.05

K%25.1%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p6825.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

CT+3.1 (29%)

CH (13%)

SL (3%)

SI (23%)

CU (3%)

FB (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
Totals		$0.3M		$2M	+$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$4.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	23	74	303	96	31	4	85%	2.8	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	1.9%	3.15	3.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	23	74	303	96	31	4	85%	2.8	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.3%	3.15	2.47	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	15	71	21	9	3	0%	1.3	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	4.0%	5.87	4.42	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	15	71	21	9	3	0%	1.3	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	4.2%	5.87	4.67	-0.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	11	87	349	96	25	5	26%	2.0	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	1.7%	2.47	2.96	+1.7
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	11	87	349	96	25	5	26%	2.0	27.5%	7.2%	20.3%	1.4%	2.47	2.50	+2.2
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	146	584	125	31	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	2.3%	2.84	3.22	+3.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	146	584	125	31	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	2.2%	2.84	3.18	+3.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	8	45	177	47	11	2	100%	5.6	26.6%	6.2%	20.3%	1.2%	2.62	2.28	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	8	45	177	47	11	2	100%	5.6	26.6%	6.2%	20.3%	1.2%	2.62	2.28	+1.5
2023	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	8	8	45	177	47	11	2	100%	5.6	26.6%	6.2%	20.3%	1.1%	2.62	2.32	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	30.2%	5.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.00	1.21	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	30.2%	5.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.00	1.21	+1.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	28.9%	4.0%	24.8%	1.3%	4.00	1.93	+1.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.0%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.0%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
2025	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.1%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			158	109	621	2465	588	143	55	69%	3.9	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	2.2%	2.87	3.05	+14.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	160	625	160	27	14	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.3%	21.3%	2.3%	2.81	2.75	+4.4
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	160	625	160	27	14	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.3%	21.3%	2.3%	2.81	2.75	+4.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	TB	28	28	160	625	160	27	14	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.3%	21.3%	2.2%	2.81	2.71	+4.5
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TB	28	28	160	625	160	27	14	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.3%	21.3%	2.2%	2.81	2.71	+4.5
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TB	3	3	15	63	16	3	2	100%	5.0	25.1%	5.0%	20.1%	2.6%	2.86	3.05	+0.3
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	15	63	16	3	2	100%	7.5	25.1%	5.0%	20.1%	2.7%	2.90	3.09	+0.3
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	175	688	176	30	16	—	—	25.6%	4.4%	21.2%	2.3%	2.81	2.78	+4.7
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	175	740	176	30	16	—	—	23.8%	4.1%	19.7%	2.1%	2.81	2.77	+4.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	486	117	26	13	100%	6.1	24.0%	5.4%	18.6%	2.7%	3.44	3.62	+1.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	446	103	26	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.8%	17.3%	3.0%	3.71	3.90	+1.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	96	406	91	26	13	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.3%	15.9%	3.3%	4.01	4.20	+0.8
2030	35	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	86	364	78	25	13	100%	6.2	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	3.6%	4.33	4.54	+0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	115	486	117	26	14	100%	6.1	24.0%	5.4%	18.6%	2.8%	3.48	3.66	+1.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	106	448	104	26	14	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.8%	17.3%	3.1%	3.76	3.95	+1.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	90	26	14	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.3%	15.9%	3.4%	4.06	4.25	+0.8
2030	35	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	86	363	77	25	14	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	3.7%	4.39	4.60	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	179	1039	4232	993	249	111	79%	4.6	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	2.6%	3.27	3.31	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	814	191	48	21	78%	4.6	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	2.6%	3.27	3.31	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		198	135	714	2843	682	186	62	68%	3.6	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.2%	2.91	3.09	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	796	191	52	17	68%	3.6	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.2%	2.91	3.09	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Rasmussen (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	23.3%	6.2%	2.7%	—	3.89	23.2%	17.4%	317	+0.09	—	—	—
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	61
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	60
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	60
Jason Hammel R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	32	SP	3.54	24.2%	5.1%	3.4%	.282	4.31	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.77	3.54	645	59
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,146	56
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	56
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	56
Anthony DeSclafani R 2021 · 3.64 FIP	31	SP	3.64	22.5%	6.1%	3.0%	.263	4.30	18.8%	14.1%	119	+0.66	3.38	981	55
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	55
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	55
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	54
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	54
Nathan Eovaldi R 2021 · 2.60 FIP	31	SP	2.60	25.5%	4.3%	2.0%	.321	3.74	23.2%	16.9%	424	+1.14	2.44	1,378	54
Kevin Herget R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP-	3.72	21.5%	4.4%	3.4%	.332	3.89	20.2%	13.7%	179	+0.17	2.19	722	54
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	53
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,365	52
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	52
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	3.86	918	52
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	52
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	106	22.9%	6.1%	1.17	3.78
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70