Drew Rasmussen
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+1.9
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.9 · 2026
ERA3.43
FIP3.89
xFIP3.04
SIERA2.97
K%22.7%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%16.2%
IP131
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2026
K†5560
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p7627.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.269
CT+3.1 (36%)
CH (9%)
SL (3%)
SI (20%)
CU (4%)
FB (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 23 | 74 | 303 | 96 | 31 | 4 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 3.64 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 29.6% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 5.87 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 43 | 11 | 87 | 349 | 96 | 25 | 5 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 2.47 | 2.98 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 146 | 584 | 125 | 31 | 13 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.84 | 3.21 | +3.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 8 | 45 | 177 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 2.62 | 2.23 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 21 | 6 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 1.21 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 150 | 585 | 127 | 36 | 18 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.76 | 3.69 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 3 | 16 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 28.8% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 1.12 | 2.74 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 103 | 23 | 11 | 25.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.79 | 3.24 | +2.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 113 | 467 | 120 | 24 | 13 | 25.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.55 | 3.17 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 96 | 23 | 11 | 24.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 3.53 | 3.75 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 83 | 17 | 10 | 25.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 3.61 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 66 | 15 | 8 | 25.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.68 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | TB | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 52 | 12 | 7 | 24.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.81 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | TB | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 23.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | TB | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 4.13 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 38 | MLB | TB | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 173 | 110 | 570 | 2277 | 539 | 160 | 49 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 3.17 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 39 | 200 | 799 | 189 | 56 | 17 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Rasmussen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.78 | 24.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% | — | 3.70 | 25.1% | 19.4% | 232 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jose Oyervides R 2028 · 3.00 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.00 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.11 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.11 | 3.00 | 407 | 69 |
| Bruce Billings R 2024 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 69 |
| Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 68 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 68 |
| Leo Medrano R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 68 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 67 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 67 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 66 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 66 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 65 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.66 | 12.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | .353 | 3.76 | 10.8% | 4.1% | 172 | +0.10 | 3.61 | 326 | 65 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 380 | 65 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 63 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 63 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.65 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 1.6% | .264 | 5.28 | 14.6% | 7.8% | 63 | +1.63 | 3.65 | 424 | 63 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.64 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .313 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.51 | 3.41 | 394 | 63 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.51 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.63 | 3.39 | 316 | 62 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.45 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 315 | 62 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 62 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2020
Service 6.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.9 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.6 | $13M | +$5M |
| Totals | $14M | $28M | +$14M | ||