Drew Rasmussen — OGILVIE

Drew Rasmussen P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.5 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 140 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 74

ERA3.29

FIP3.39

K%25.2%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP140

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4925.1%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

CT+3.1 (29%)

CH (13%)

SL (3%)

SI (24%)

CU (3%)

FB (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Arb-3	$18M	+2.5	$20M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$20M	+$2M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$17.9M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	23	74	303	96	31	4	85%	2.8	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	1.9%	3.15	3.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	23	74	303	96	31	4	85%	2.8	31.7%	10.2%	21.5%	1.3%	3.15	2.47	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	15	71	21	9	3	0%	1.3	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	4.0%	5.87	4.42	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	12	0	15	71	21	9	3	0%	1.3	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	4.2%	5.87	4.67	-0.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	11	87	349	96	25	5	26%	2.0	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	1.7%	2.47	2.96	+1.7
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	11	87	349	96	25	5	26%	2.0	27.5%	7.2%	20.3%	1.4%	2.47	2.50	+2.2
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	146	584	125	31	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	2.3%	2.84	3.22	+3.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	146	584	125	31	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	2.2%	2.84	3.18	+3.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	8	45	177	47	11	2	100%	5.6	26.6%	6.2%	20.3%	1.2%	2.62	2.28	+1.5
2023	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	8	8	45	177	47	11	2	100%	5.6	26.6%	6.2%	20.3%	1.1%	2.62	2.32	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	30.2%	5.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.00	1.21	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	30.2%	5.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.00	1.21	+1.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	6	36	149	43	6	2	29%	1.7	28.9%	4.0%	24.8%	1.3%	4.00	1.93	+1.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.0%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.0%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
2025	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	150	585	127	36	18	100%	4.8	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.1%	2.76	3.69	+2.2
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	30	30	172	669	174	32	14	100%	5.7	26.0%	4.8%	21.2%	2.2%	2.67	2.69	+4.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	30	30	172	669	174	32	14	100%	5.7	26.0%	4.8%	21.2%	2.2%	2.67	2.69	+4.9
2026	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	30	30	172	669	174	32	14	100%	5.7	26.0%	4.8%	21.2%	2.1%	2.67	2.69	+4.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	111	633	2509	602	148	55	69%	4.0	24.0%	5.9%	18.1%	2.2%	2.83	3.03	+14.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TB	23	23	140	591	149	31	15	100%	6.1	25.2%	5.3%	19.9%	2.5%	3.29	3.39	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	129	544	133	31	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	5.8%	18.6%	2.8%	3.52	3.67	+1.9
2029	34	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	117	495	116	31	15	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.2%	17.2%	3.1%	3.79	3.97	+1.3
2030	35	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	105	445	100	30	15	100%	5.8	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	3.4%	4.10	4.31	+0.7
2031	36	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	93	394	85	29	15	100%	5.8	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	3.8%	4.45	4.68	+0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	129	545	133	31	15	100%	5.9	24.4%	5.8%	18.6%	2.7%	3.48	3.63	+1.9
2029	34	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	117	494	116	31	15	100%	5.8	23.5%	6.2%	17.2%	3.0%	3.74	3.92	+1.3
2030	35	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	105	443	100	30	15	100%	5.8	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	3.3%	4.05	4.26	+0.7
2031	36	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	93	393	84	29	14	100%	5.8	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	3.7%	4.39	4.62	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		234	185	1077	4387	1035	270	114	79%	4.6	23.6%	6.1%	17.5%	2.6%	3.26	3.31	+21.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	814	192	50	21	79%	4.6	23.6%	6.1%	17.5%	2.6%	3.26	3.31	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		200	137	726	2887	696	191	62	68%	3.6	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	2.1%	2.88	3.07	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	796	192	53	17	68%	3.6	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	2.1%	2.88	3.07	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Rasmussen (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.39	25.2%	5.3%	2.5%	—	3.96	23.5%	17.3%	352	+0.57	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	905	52
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	49
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	46
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,170	45
Orlando Hernandez R 2002 · 3.78 FIP	32	SP	3.78	18.6%	5.6%	2.8%	.258	4.26	18.9%	9.8%	213	+0.48	3.35	1,315	45
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	45
Aaron Wilkerson R 2021 · 3.33 FIP	32	SP	3.33	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.45	21.3%	15.4%	47	+2.12	2.75	902	45
Elmer Dessens R 2003 · 4.25 FIP	32	SP	4.25	14.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.319	3.98	15.0%	9.6%	248	-0.27	3.55	1,167	44
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	44
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	44
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	43
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	41
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	39
Logan Verrett R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	32	SP	3.84	17.5%	5.5%	2.8%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	550	39
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	38
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	37
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	37
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	36
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	36
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	36

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	111	23.8%	6.1%	1.01	3.28
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20