Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.RF San Diego Padres

Age 27 R/R 6'3" / 217 lbs MLB HR -7% Svc 6.698 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION416 act + 277 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8496vR 125

AVG/OBP/SLG.276 / .352 / .438

PA277

HR8

SB14

K%21

BB%9

BABIP329

ISO162

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

728.7%

xwOBA

900.368

POWER60

Barrel%

7511.9

Avg EV

9093.0

Bat Spd

7974.4

EYE55

Chase%

9021.7%

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1221 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

303

918

—

wRC+

101

139

▶▶R

wOBA

317

367

▶R

ISO

124

197

▶▶R

BABIP

281

321

▶R

21.8%

19.7%

▶R

BB%

14.2%

8.7%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.698 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$10M	+1.1	$9M	-$0.8M
2027	Ext	$24M	+4.0	$30M	+$8M
2028	Ext	$24M	+3.8	$26M	+$6M
2029	Ext	$24M	+3.5	$22M	+$5M
2030	Ext	$24M	+3.0	$18M	+$2M
2031	Ext	$24M	+2.4	$13M	-$1M
2032	Ext	$24M	+1.6	$8M	-$5M
2033	Ext	$24M	+0.8	$2M	-$10M
2034	Ext	$24M	+0.2	$0.4M	-$10M
Totals		$204M		$128M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	188	181	34	8	1	3	6	63	0	14	2	188	214	293	507	105	270	34	3	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	188	176	48	13	1	4	10	44	0	14	2	273	310	426	736	153	344	23	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	3 teams	—	642	582	122	23	5	17	47	226	7	32	15	210	277	354	631	144	304	35	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	3 teams	—	642	543	149	30	8	23	86	149	7	32	15	274	381	486	867	212	334	23	13	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA	2 teams	—	489	450	104	19	4	26	26	174	11	24	7	231	290	464	754	233	310	36	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA	2 teams	—	489	433	122	29	5	19	43	129	11	24	7	282	361	503	865	222	359	26	9	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	372	334	110	14	6	24	30	110	5	16	6	329	393	623	1.016	293	424	30	8	426	184	+35	+1	-10	+4	+11	4.2
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	372	334	106	13	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	317	382	590	972	272	410	30	8	418	178	+33	+1	-10	+4	+11	3.9
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	64	12	2	18	27	61	5	11	3	286	375	598	973	312	315	24	11	413	174	+22	+1	+6	+3	+7	4.0
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	62	11	2	17	27	61	5	11	3	277	367	571	939	295	306	24	11	405	168	+20	+1	+6	+3	+7	3.8
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	546	478	141	33	0	45	62	153	2	25	4	295	378	646	1.025	351	338	28	11	423	182	+51	+3	+3	+6	+15	8.0
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	546	478	135	31	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	282	367	611	978	328	324	28	11	418	178	+48	+3	+3	+6	+15	7.7
2023	24	MLB	3 teams	—	707	640	175	38	1	33	60	152	3	35	6	273	339	491	829	217	310	21	8	361	134	+27	+5	+7	-8	+20	5.2
2023	24	MLB	3 teams	—	707	634	174	36	2	33	66	149	3	35	6	274	346	494	839	219	310	21	9	367	139	+31	+5	+7	-8	+20	5.6
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	114	22	1	23	32	96	7	11	3	286	350	520	870	234	325	22	7	375	145	+22	+1	-1	-5	+12	3.1
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	110	21	1	21	32	96	7	11	3	276	341	492	833	216	316	22	7	366	138	+19	+1	-1	-5	+12	2.8
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	691	594	165	29	2	27	89	129	6	32	7	278	377	470	847	192	314	19	13	363	136	+28	+4	+6	-7	+20	5.1
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	691	594	159	27	2	25	89	129	6	32	7	268	369	446	815	178	303	19	13	364	137	+29	+4	+6	-7	+20	5.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	SD	—	416	372	103	19	1	5	34	87	4	23	9	277	344	374	718	97	344	21	8	314	99	-1	+1	+2	-4	+12	1.0
YTD	27	MLB	SD	—	416	372	103	19	1	5	34	87	4	23	9	277	344	374	718	97	344	21	8	321	104	+2	+1	+2	-4	+12	1.3
ROS	27	MLB	SD	100%	277	246	68	14	1	8	26	57	3	14	4	276	352	438	791	162	324	21	9	346	123	+7	+1	+4	-3	+8	1.8
ROS	27	MLB	SD	100%	277	246	65	13	1	7	26	57	3	14	4	264	342	411	752	146	319	21	9	334	114	+4	+1	+4	-3	+8	1.5
FULL	27	MLB	SD	—	693	618	168	32	2	12	60	144	7	37	13	272	343	388	731	117	333	21	9	322	105	+4	+2	+6	-7	+20	2.5
TOT	27	MLB	SD	—	693	618	171	33	2	13	60	144	7	37	13	277	347	399	747	123	338	21	9	327	108	+7	+2	+6	-7	+20	2.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SD	100%	660	586	157	32	3	18	63	138	6	32	10	268	345	425	770	157	319	21	10	342	120	+15	+2	+9	-7	+19	3.9
2028	29	MLB	SD	100%	660	586	156	32	2	18	63	139	6	30	9	266	344	420	763	154	318	21	10	340	118	+14	+2	+9	-7	+19	3.7
2029	30	MLB	SD	100%	653	580	152	31	2	17	62	139	6	27	8	262	340	410	750	148	316	21	9	336	116	+11	+2	+8	-7	+19	3.4
2030	31	MLB	SD	100%	640	568	147	30	2	16	61	138	6	23	7	259	337	403	740	144	313	22	10	331	112	+9	+2	+7	-7	+18	2.9
2031	32	MLB	SD	100%	627	556	141	28	2	15	60	138	6	18	6	254	333	392	725	138	309	22	10	325	107	+5	+1	+6	-7	+18	2.3
2032	33	MLB	SD	100%	560	497	123	24	1	13	53	126	5	13	4	247	326	378	704	131	302	22	9	316	100	+0	+1	+4	-6	+16	1.6
2033	34	MLB	SD	100%	512	455	108	20	1	11	48	119	4	8	3	237	316	358	674	121	294	23	9	306	92	-5	+0	+3	-5	+15	0.8
2034	35	MLB	SD	100%	455	406	92	16	1	9	42	109	4	5	2	227	305	337	643	111	289	24	9	296	85	-8	+0	+1	-5	+13	0.2
2027	28	MLB	SD	100%	660	586	155	31	3	17	63	138	6	32	10	265	342	415	757	150	315	21	10	330	111	+8	+2	+9	-7	+19	3.2
2028	29	MLB	SD	100%	660	586	153	31	2	17	63	139	6	30	9	261	339	408	747	147	314	21	10	328	109	+7	+2	+9	-7	+19	3.0
2029	30	MLB	SD	100%	653	580	151	30	2	17	62	139	6	27	8	260	338	407	745	147	312	21	9	325	107	+5	+2	+8	-7	+19	2.7
2030	31	MLB	SD	100%	640	568	146	29	2	16	61	138	6	23	7	257	335	400	735	143	309	22	10	320	103	+2	+2	+7	-7	+18	2.3
2031	32	MLB	SD	100%	627	556	140	27	2	15	60	138	6	18	6	252	331	388	720	137	304	22	10	314	98	-1	+1	+6	-7	+18	1.7
2032	33	MLB	SD	100%	560	497	121	23	1	13	53	126	5	13	4	243	323	372	695	129	299	22	9	306	92	-5	+1	+4	-6	+16	1.0
2033	34	MLB	SD	100%	512	455	106	19	1	11	48	119	4	8	3	233	312	352	663	119	291	23	9	295	84	-9	+0	+3	-5	+15	0.3
2034	35	MLB	SD	100%	455	406	92	16	1	9	42	109	4	5	2	227	305	337	643	111	285	24	9	286	77	-12	+0	+1	-5	+13	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7983	7083	1849	355	27	274	771	1793	74	294	80	261	340	435	775	174	312	22	10	339	118	+161	+27	+62	-61	+226	42.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	150	29	2	22	63	146	6	24	7	260	339	432	771	172	311	22	10	339	118	+13	+2	+5	-5	+18	3.4
Career	—			—	9374	8361	2173	425	37	341	857	2267	92	370	106	260	335	442	777	182	316	24	9	340	119	+196	+32	+62	-75	+266	49.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	151	29	3	24	59	157	6	26	7	260	334	445	779	184	316	24	9	340	119	+14	+2	+4	-5	+18	3.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	188	176	48	13	1	4	10	44	0	14	2	273	310	426	736	153	344	23	5	323	105	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.9
2017	18	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	57	55	14	1	0	1	2	17	0	3	0	255	281	327	608	73	351	30	4	274	68	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	518	431	121	26	7	21	75	124	6	29	15	281	395	520	914	239	342	24	14	397	162	+36	-0	—	—	+15	5.2
2017	18	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	67	57	14	3	1	1	9	8	1	0	0	246	358	386	744	140	271	12	13	339	118	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	394	353	101	22	4	16	33	109	6	16	5	286	357	507	864	221	370	28	8	378	147	+21	+1	—	—	+11	3.4
2018	19	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	95	80	21	7	1	3	10	20	5	8	2	263	379	487	866	225	316	21	11	385	153	+6	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	372	334	106	13	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	317	382	590	972	272	410	30	8	418	178	+33	+1	-10	+4	+11	3.9
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	62	11	2	17	27	61	5	11	3	277	367	571	939	295	306	24	11	405	168	+20	+1	+6	+3	+7	3.8
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	546	478	135	31	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	282	367	611	978	328	324	28	11	418	178	+48	+3	+3	+6	+15	7.7
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	635	575	148	33	1	25	53	141	3	29	4	257	323	449	772	191	299	22	8	340	118	+13	+4	+7	-8	+18	3.5
2023	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	39	33	17	2	0	7	6	3	0	2	0	515	590	1.212	1.802	697	435	8	15	732	418	+14	+0	—	—	+1	1.6
2023	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	33	26	9	1	1	1	7	5	0	4	2	346	485	577	1.062	231	400	15	21	463	213	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	110	21	1	21	32	96	7	11	3	276	341	492	833	216	316	22	7	366	138	+19	+1	-1	-5	+12	2.8
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	691	594	159	27	2	25	89	129	6	32	7	268	369	446	815	178	303	19	13	364	137	+29	+4	+6	-7	+20	5.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2939	2603	720	136	12	152	293	690	28	124	27	277	356	513	869	237	320	23	10	380	149	+161	+14	+11	-7	+83	26.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alfonso Sorianolast yr '14 career totals — 15 seasons, 8,387 PA	15	8,387	411	289	270	319	500	-54	+1	47.9	42.7
	/162	664	33	23	270	319	500	-4.2	+0.1	3.8	pk7: 37
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	8,813	303	336	267	341	442	-94	+38	39.3	33.2
	/162	664	23	25	267	341	442	-7.1	+2.9	3.0	pk7: 27
#2Carl Crawfordlast yr '16 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,178 PA	15	7,178	136	480	290	330	435	-76	+42	33.5	32.0
	/162	664	13	44	290	330	435	-7.0	+3.9	3.1	pk7: 31
#3Brett Gardnerlast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,577 PA	13	6,577	139	272	256	341	398	-41	+49	29.8	26.6
	/162	664	14	27	256	341	398	-4.2	+4.9	3.0	pk7: 23
#4Randy Winnlast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,175 PA	11	6,175	107	180	286	345	422	-50	+27	27.7	26.6
	/162	664	12	19	286	345	422	-5.4	+2.9	3.0	pk7: 25
#5Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	14	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
	/162	664	17	10	257	338	410	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#6Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	12	6,929	169	253	277	321	434	-57	+11	25.0	25.4
#6Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	/162	664	16	24	277	321	434	-5.5	+1.0	2.4	pk7: 26

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OGILVIE)	27	60	60	60	55	277/347/399	123	338	13	37	21%	9%	108	+2.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Starling Marte 2016 · MLB	27	58→66	50→60	56→60	43	286/342/446	160	346	16	30	22%	5%	126	+3.5	291/343/440	149	346	15	36	19%	5%	124	+3.4	301/361/478	177	343	19	36	17%	6%	139	+3.3
●Alex Rios 2009 · MLB	28	58→62	52→60	56→55	50	290/342/474	184	324	17	21	16%	7%	132	+4.0	262/311/418	156	290	16	23	16%	6%	105	+2.1	283/321/442	160	319	15	27	16%	5%	111	+2.5
●AJ Pollock 2016 · MLB	28	58→62	50→65	60→55	51	288/341/454	166	317	15	27	14%	7%	127	+3.6	272/333/462	190	299	20	25	16%	8%	126	+3.5	288/345/537	248	317	34	10	20%	7%	146	+2.7
●B.J. Upton 2012 · MLB	27	47→57	53→60	58→60	53	240/323/421	181	297	19	34	26%	11%	111	+2.5	224/296/392	168	290	20	24	28%	9%	92	+1.2	226/293/371	145	300	16	25	29%	8%	81	+0.3
●Shane Victorino 2008 · MLB	27	56→60	47→55	60	50	274/333/421	147	297	13	24	13%	6%	115	+2.8	281/343/433	152	303	13	28	11%	8%	121	+3.2	273/343/446	173	290	14	24	11%	9%	121	+3.5
●Carl Crawford 2009 · MLB	27	59→65	46→55	66→65	48	289/333/434	145	323	12	38	15%	6%	118	+3.0	286/337/442	156	324	14	38	16%	7%	121	+3.2	281/333/441	160	320	15	40	16%	6%	116	+3.0
●Carlos Gómez 2013 · MLB	27	48→58	54→60	63→65	43	250/298/431	181	291	22	38	23%	5%	104	+2.0	274/334/475	201	328	22	33	23%	6%	130	+3.8	275/339/469	194	332	21	32	23%	7%	128	+3.5
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2012 · MLB	28	58→66	53→55	59→65	51	294/349/477	183	309	20	35	13%	7%	136	+4.2	277/332/424	147	307	14	33	14%	7%	115	+2.7	268/328/386	118	306	10	38	15%	7%	99	+1.6
●Brandon Phillips 2008 · MLB	27	53→59	53→55	55	46	272/320/444	172	294	21	23	16%	5%	116	+2.8	269/321/441	172	287	20	21	14%	6%	116	+2.8	275/332/429	154	293	16	16	12%	7%	113	+2.9
●Randy Arozarena 2023 · MLB	28	53→57	54→55	52→55	47	264/336/457	193	330	21	24	26%	8%	126	+3.5	246/343/429	183	306	21	21	25%	10%	122	+3.3	238/346/421	183	296	22	22	26%	11%	119	+3.4
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2017 · MLB	27	50→55	50→55	58→55	49	251/311/415	164	285	16	22	18%	7%	105	+2.1	239/302/405	166	287	18	20	22%	7%	98	+1.6	248/311/389	141	317	12	17	24%	7%	94	+0.8
★Trea Turner 2020 · MLB	27	57→66	51→60	62→65	51	284/345/457	173	327	18	36	19%	8%	129	+3.7	310/364/513	203	350	23	27	18%	7%	152	+5.3	320/371/525	204	360	24	26	17%	7%	155	+5.0
●Wil Myers 2017 · MLB	26	50→53	56→65	54→55	52	259/334/453	194	307	23	20	23%	10%	124	+3.4	255/331/469	214	324	26	19	28%	10%	127	+3.6	249/328/464	215	326	26	20	30%	10%	121	+2.7
●Jason Heyward 2016 · MLB	26	57→60	46→55	54→50	56	277/351/416	139	312	13	18	15%	10%	121	+3.2	255/324/375	120	288	11	11	15%	9%	99	+1.7	256/344/410	154	288	16	5	16%	11%	112	+1.8
★Jose Altuve 2017 · MLB	27	64→69	49→60	56→60	52	317/368/473	156	331	15	29	10%	7%	143	+4.7	314/376/490	176	339	19	21	13%	8%	150	+5.2	310/375/492	183	335	21	18	14%	8%	147	+5.1
●Chris Taylor 2018 · MLB	27	55→62	50→60	54→55	48	269/329/437	168	336	15	18	24%	8%	118	+3.0	268/339/464	196	353	19	12	27%	9%	129	+3.7	266/351/466	200	350	21	12	28%	10%	130	+2.6
✕Corey Patterson 2007 · MLB	27	49→54	51→55	60	43	251/294/410	159	294	19	34	22%	5%	96	+1.5	240/277/373	133	275	14	32	18%	4%	79	+0.3	236/273/356	120	296	11	28	23%	4%	68	-0.3
●Franklin Gutierrez 2011 · MLB	28	52→56	46→60	54→55	49	257/315/389	132	306	14	18	21%	8%	99	+1.7	239/287/363	124	292	12	16	22%	6%	81	+0.4	249/310/455	206	315	28	5	29%	7%	113	+1.5
●Byron Buxton 2020 · MLB	26	47→57	52→80	59→55	42	239/291/421	182	305	17	25	27%	6%	98	+1.6	260/311/533	273	298	36	16	26%	6%	137	+4.3	268/329/542	275	310	37	18	26%	7%	142	+3.3
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	52→54	51→55	56→60	50	260/324/425	165	297	18	27	19%	8%	112	+2.6	231/302/393	162	268	18	27	21%	9%	95	+1.4	217/294/381	164	251	19	30	22%	9%	87	+0.7