Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.RF San Diego Padres

Age 27 R/R 6'3" / 217 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 4.5 · 2027

wRC+†vL 83123vR 124

AVG/OBP/SLG.279 / .363 / .479

PA691

HR29

SB33

K%21

BB%11

xwOBA.364

Barrel%13.6%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

60→60

SPD

60→60

EYE

58↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

5.1peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+4.0	$32M	+$8M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+4.5	$37M	+$13M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+4.2	$36M	+$11M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+3.9	$34M	+$10M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+3.5	$32M	+$7M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+3.0	$28M	+$4M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+2.4	$23M	-$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+1.8	$18M	-$7M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$24M	+1.1	$11M	-$13M
Totals		$219M		$250M	+$31M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	188	181	34	8	1	3	6	63	0	14	2	.188	.214	.293	.507	.105	.270	34	3	.218	25	-16	+2	+0	-2	+5	-1.1
2017	18	A	3 teams	642	577	124	23	4	19	52	207	7	32	15	.215	.288	.367	.655	.153	.294	32	8	.288	78	-16	+0	+0	-7	+18	-0.4
2018	19	AA	2 teams	489	449	100	19	4	20	27	176	11	24	7	.223	.283	.416	.700	.194	.314	36	6	.299	87	-7	+2	+0	-5	+14	0.4
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	372	334	107	14	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	.320	.385	.596	.981	.275	.415	30	8	.418	178	+33	+1	-10	+4	+11	3.9
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	257	224	59	11	3	13	27	61	5	11	3	.263	.355	.513	.869	.250	.305	24	11	.365	138	+11	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.9
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	546	478	134	29	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	.280	.365	.605	.970	.324	.321	28	11	.398	163	+39	+3	+3	+6	+15	6.8
2023	24	MLB	3 teams	707	640	167	36	1	33	60	152	3	35	6	.261	.327	.475	.802	.214	.293	21	8	.347	124	+19	+5	+7	-8	+20	4.4
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	438	398	111	21	1	19	32	96	7	11	3	.279	.343	.480	.823	.201	.324	22	7	.358	132	+16	+1	-1	-5	+12	2.5
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	691	594	158	30	2	22	89	129	6	32	7	.266	.367	.434	.802	.168	.306	19	13	.343	121	+16	+4	+6	-7	+20	3.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	108	92	23	4	0	0	11	28	1	6	1	.250	.337	.293	.630	.043	.343	26	10	.281	74	-3	+1	+2	-1	+3	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	SD	583	511	140	26	1	20	62	127	5	27	5	.274	.358	.446	.804	.172	.327	22	11	.358	132	+21	+3	+3	-6	+17	3.9
TOT	27	MLB	SD	691	603	163	30	1	20	73	155	6	33	6	.270	.355	.423	.778	.153	.329	22	11	.346	123	+18	+4	+5	-7	+20	4.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB	SD	683	599	164	30	2	23	73	113	6	31	6	.274	.358	.446	.804	.172	.300	17	11	.357	131	+24	+4	+3	-7	+19	4.4
2028	29	MLB	SD	671	588	160	29	1	23	72	113	6	29	5	.272	.357	.442	.800	.170	.299	17	11	.355	130	+22	+4	+2	-7	+19	4.1
2029	30	MLB	SD	659	577	155	28	1	22	71	113	6	27	4	.269	.355	.435	.790	.166	.298	17	11	.351	127	+20	+4	+2	-7	+19	3.8
2030	31	MLB	SD	644	564	150	27	1	21	69	113	6	23	3	.266	.352	.429	.781	.163	.297	18	11	.348	124	+18	+3	+1	-7	+18	3.4
2031	32	MLB	SD	625	548	144	26	1	20	67	113	5	20	2	.263	.348	.423	.772	.161	.296	18	11	.343	121	+15	+3	-0	-7	+18	2.9
2032	33	MLB	SD	595	522	135	24	1	18	63	112	5	17	1	.259	.344	.412	.756	.153	.294	19	11	.337	116	+11	+3	-1	-6	+17	2.4
2033	34	MLB	SD	546	479	121	21	1	16	58	107	4	14	1	.253	.338	.401	.739	.148	.292	20	11	.330	111	+7	+2	-2	-6	+15	1.7
2034	35	MLB	SD	489	431	106	18	1	13	51	101	4	11	0	.246	.331	.383	.714	.137	.290	21	10	.322	105	+3	+2	-3	-5	+14	1.1
2035	36	MLB	SD	427	377	90	15	1	11	44	92	3	9	0	.239	.323	.371	.694	.133	.288	22	10	.313	98	-1	+2	-4	-5	+12	0.4
2036	37	MLB	SD	361	318	74	12	1	8	37	82	3	7	0	.233	.318	.352	.671	.119	.284	23	10	.303	90	-4	+1	-5	-4	+10	-0.1
2037	38	MLB	SD	290	257	57	9	0	6	29	68	2	5	0	.222	.306	.327	.632	.105	.279	23	10	.292	82	-6	+1	-6	-3	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10903	9646	2490	456	34	394	1081	2401	101	420	80	.258	.339	.435	.774	.177	.304	22	10	.340	118	+225	+52	+1	-92	+309	50.5
/ 162G	—			650	575	148	27	2	23	64	143	6	25	5	.257	.337	.431	.769	.174	.303	22	10	.340	118	+13	+3	+0	-5	+18	3.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	188	176	48	13	1	4	10	44	0	14	2	.273	.310	.426	.736	.153	.344	23	5	.323	105	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.9
2017	18	AA	San Antonio Missions	57	55	14	1	0	1	2	17	0	3	0	.255	.281	.327	.608	.073	.351	30	4	.274	68	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	518	431	121	26	7	21	75	124	6	29	15	.281	.395	.520	.914	.239	.342	24	14	.397	162	+36	-0	—	—	+15	5.2
2017	18	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	67	57	14	3	1	1	9	8	1	0	0	.246	.358	.386	.744	.140	.271	12	13	.339	118	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	394	353	101	22	4	16	33	109	6	16	5	.286	.357	.507	.864	.221	.370	28	8	.378	147	+21	+1	—	—	+11	3.4
2018	19	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	95	80	21	7	1	3	10	20	5	8	2	.263	.379	.487	.866	.225	.316	21	11	.385	153	+6	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	372	334	106	13	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	.317	.382	.590	.972	.272	.410	30	8	.418	178	+33	+1	-10	+4	+11	3.9
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	257	224	62	11	2	17	27	61	5	11	3	.277	.367	.571	.939	.295	.306	24	11	.405	168	+20	+1	+6	+3	+7	3.8
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	546	478	135	31	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	.282	.367	.611	.978	.328	.324	28	11	.418	178	+48	+3	+3	+6	+15	7.7
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	635	575	148	33	1	25	53	141	3	29	4	.257	.323	.449	.772	.191	.299	22	8	.340	118	+13	+4	+7	-8	+18	3.5
2023	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	39	33	17	2	0	7	6	3	0	2	0	.515	.590	1.212	1.802	.697	.435	8	15	.732	418	+14	+0	—	—	+1	1.6
2023	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	33	26	9	1	1	1	7	5	0	4	2	.346	.485	.577	1.062	.231	.400	15	21	.463	213	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	438	398	110	21	1	21	32	96	7	11	3	.276	.341	.492	.833	.216	.316	22	7	.366	138	+19	+1	-1	-5	+12	2.8
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	691	594	159	27	2	25	89	129	6	32	7	.268	.369	.446	.815	.178	.303	19	13	.364	137	+29	+4	+6	-7	+20	5.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2939	2603	720	136	12	152	293	690	28	124	27	.277	.356	.513	.869	.237	.320	23	10	.380	149	+161	+14	+11	-7	+83	26.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OGILVIE)	27	60	60	60	55	.272/.356/.444	.172	.300	24	32	16%	11%	132	+4.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●AJ Pollock 2016 · MLB	28	57→60	50→65	58→55	51	.282/.335/.445	.163	.309	16	26	15%	7%	121	+3.2	.273/.333/.464	.191	.298	21	25	16%	8%	127	+3.6	.256/.321/.463	.207	.286	24	18	19%	7%	118	+2.1
●Alex Rios 2009 · MLB	28	58→62	52→60	56→55	50	.291/.343/.477	.187	.324	17	20	16%	7%	134	+4.1	.263/.312/.415	.152	.293	15	23	16%	6%	105	+2.1	.279/.317/.437	.158	.315	15	27	16%	5%	107	+2.2
★Trea Turner 2021 · MLB	28	58→65	53→60	60→65	52	.292/.354/.475	.183	.331	19	31	18%	8%	137	+4.3	.302/.352/.484	.182	.347	20	26	18%	7%	139	+4.4	.292/.342/.466	.175	.338	20	26	19%	6%	128	+4.2
●Ian Kinsler 2010 · MLB	28	52→62	57→60	58→55	56	.271/.344/.476	.205	.277	23	25	13%	9%	134	+4.1	.260/.344/.434	.174	.270	19	22	12%	10%	123	+3.3	.282/.330/.438	.155	.305	16	11	13%	6%	115	+3.2
★Carlos Beltrán 2004 · MLB	27	57→61	57→65	64→60	56	.290/.363/.503	.213	.316	24	31	17%	10%	148	+5.1	.272/.359/.501	.229	.285	27	27	15%	12%	146	+4.9	.274/.372/.529	.255	.282	31	20	16%	13%	149	+5.5
✕Grady Sizemore 2010 · MLB	27	52→58	56→60	55	61	.264/.365/.470	.206	.295	23	23	19%	13%	141	+4.6	.237/.314/.408	.171	.288	17	12	23%	9%	104	+2.0	.237/.297/.372	.135	.292	12	5	22%	7%	84	+0.4
●B.J. Upton 2012 · MLB	27	49→59	51→60	58→60	52	.244/.325/.418	.175	.306	18	35	25%	10%	111	+2.5	.229/.301/.396	.167	.297	19	25	28%	9%	96	+1.5	.222/.289/.365	.143	.294	16	25	29%	8%	76	+0.0
●Brandon Phillips 2009 · MLB	28	53→61	54→55	56→55	47	.271/.321/.450	.178	.290	22	23	16%	6%	118	+3.0	.273/.327/.436	.163	.292	18	19	13%	7%	116	+2.8	.277/.334/.429	.152	.296	16	16	12%	7%	114	+3.0
✕Carlos Gómez 2015 · MLB	29	54→57	55→60	61→65	45	.273/.335/.468	.195	.326	22	35	23%	6%	128	+3.7	.250/.317/.419	.169	.312	18	23	25%	7%	108	+2.3	.232/.304/.392	.160	.298	18	21	27%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Cedric Mullins 2023 · MLB	28	53→56	51→55	56→60	50	.264/.327/.433	.169	.303	18	26	19%	8%	116	+2.8	.238/.307/.405	.167	.277	19	27	21%	8%	101	+1.8	.221/.297/.388	.167	.256	20	30	22%	9%	91	+0.9
●Dustin Pedroia 2012 · MLB	28	57→65	51→55	51→55	61	.286/.366/.452	.166	.295	17	18	10%	11%	137	+4.3	.284/.353/.421	.137	.305	13	16	11%	9%	123	+3.3	.290/.358/.411	.121	.310	14	5	11%	9%	119	+2.7
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2012 · MLB	28	58→66	52→55	60→65	52	.291/.347/.465	.173	.307	19	38	12%	7%	132	+4.0	.281/.335/.428	.147	.310	15	33	14%	7%	118	+3.0	.270/.330/.384	.114	.309	10	38	15%	7%	100	+1.7
★Curtis Granderson 2008 · MLB	27	55→60	54→65	62→50	47	.273/.333/.480	.207	.339	19	16	24%	8%	130	+3.8	.268/.341/.477	.209	.310	22	15	20%	10%	133	+4.0	.247/.335/.472	.225	.280	27	18	22%	11%	124	+3.7
★Shannon Stewart 2001 · MLB	27	60→65	54→55	54→55	50	.301/.349/.492	.191	.320	20	17	13%	6%	141	+4.5	.307/.364/.464	.157	.331	13	16	11%	7%	138	+4.4	.306/.369/.451	.145	.330	11	14	10%	8%	133	+4.4
●Starling Marte 2016 · MLB	27	58→65	50→60	57→60	42	.283/.341/.447	.163	.344	16	31	22%	5%	125	+3.5	.286/.340/.435	.149	.340	15	36	20%	5%	122	+3.3	.300/.360/.477	.177	.340	20	36	17%	6%	137	+3.3
●Trevor Story 2021 · MLB	28	52→54	60→65	55	48	.270/.336/.495	.225	.326	27	23	26%	8%	136	+4.2	.241/.313/.431	.190	.300	22	21	26%	9%	110	+2.4	.226/.299/.407	.181	.283	21	22	27%	8%	95	+0.9
●Marcus Giles 2005 · MLB	27	59→63	50→55	51→50	55	.292/.365/.461	.170	.322	17	15	15%	9%	139	+4.4	.276/.350/.422	.146	.319	12	14	16%	9%	122	+3.3	.259/.337/.389	.130	.303	10	12	17%	10%	106	+2.1
●Carlos González 2013 · MLB	27	58→63	56→65	55	51	.292/.355/.490	.197	.337	23	21	20%	8%	142	+4.6	.272/.336/.496	.224	.320	28	17	23%	9%	136	+4.2	.266/.329/.467	.201	.306	25	2	21%	8%	117	+2.8
★Jimmy Rollins 2007 · MLB	28	57→60	50→60	62→60	53	.282/.336/.453	.171	.293	15	27	10%	7%	124	+3.4	.278/.334/.471	.193	.288	18	31	10%	7%	128	+3.7	.272/.329/.462	.190	.279	17	34	10%	7%	119	+3.6
●Tim Anderson 2020 · MLB	27	55→65	51→55	52→55	39	.277/.306/.437	.159	.336	19	19	24%	4%	108	+2.3	.299/.331/.458	.159	.359	19	18	21%	4%	124	+3.4	.308/.340/.449	.141	.367	16	19	20%	4%	122	+2.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)