Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF San Diego Padres

Age 28 R/R 6'3" / 217 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.698 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2035

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBSD	438	.276/.341/.492	21	11	136	2.4
2025	26	MLBSD	691	.268/.369/.446	25	32	130	4.2
2026	27	MLBSD	704	.289/.362/.470	25	38	132	4.0
2027PROJ	28	MLBSD	614	.284/.359/.482	26	31	138	4.9
2028PROJ	29	MLBSD	614	.279/.355/.473	25	27	134	4.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBSD	614	.276/.351/.464	25	23	131	4.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 13.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2034Service7.698First FA2035

2027Ext$24M2028Ext$24M2029Ext$24M2030Ext$24M2031Ext$24M2032Ext$24M2033Ext$24M2034Ext$24M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Avg EV90

Speed90

Barrel%79

Bat Spd79

Form.297/.365/.529 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .287/.360/.485

CompsCarlos Gómez (age 29) · Trevor Story (age 28) · Carlos González (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 138138vR 137

AVG/OBP/SLG.284 / .359 / .482

PA614

HR26

SB31

K%19

BB%9

BABIP316

ISO196

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

900.286

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.5

Avg EV

9093.2

Bat Spd

7974.4

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%19%·19% over 118 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%9%·8% over 118 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.232▲▲.283 over 106 AB (60d) · proj .199

HR/BB7.5%▲9.5% over 84 BBE (60d) · proj 5.9%

BABIP.322·.329 over 76 BIP (60d) · proj .322

SLASH.297/.365/.529▲▲proj .287/.360/.485

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1221 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

303

918

—

wRC+

101

134

▶▶R

wOBA

317

367

▶R

ISO

124

197

▶▶R

BABIP

281

321

▶R

21.8%

19.7%

▶R

BB%

14.2%

8.7%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.698 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$24M	+5.2	$62M	+$38M
2028	Ext	$24M	+4.4	$48M	+$26M
2029	Ext	$24M	+4.0	$38M	+$18M
2030	Ext	$24M	+3.5	$28M	+$10M
2031	Ext	$24M	+2.9	$19M	+$3M
2032	Ext	$24M	+1.7	$9M	-$5M
2033	Ext	$24M	+0.8	$2M	-$11M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$170M		$206M	+$80M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	188	176	48	13	1	4	10	44	0	14	2	273	310	426	736	153	344	23	5	323	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	57	55	14	1	0	1	2	17	0	3	0	255	281	327	608	73	351	30	4	274	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	518	431	121	26	7	21	75	124	6	29	15	281	395	520	914	239	342	24	14	397	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	67	57	14	3	1	1	9	8	1	0	0	246	358	386	744	140	271	12	13	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	394	353	101	22	4	16	33	109	6	16	5	286	357	507	864	221	370	28	8	378	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	95	80	21	7	1	3	10	20	5	8	2	263	379	487	866	225	316	21	11	385	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	372	334	106	13	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	317	382	590	972	272	410	30	8	418	169	+31	+1	-10	+4	+8	3.4
2020	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	62	11	2	17	27	61	5	11	3	277	367	571	939	295	306	24	11	405	160	+18	+1	+6	+3	+6	3.5
2021	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	546	478	135	31	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	282	367	611	978	328	324	28	11	418	165	+42	+3	+3	+6	+12	6.7
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	635	575	148	33	1	25	53	141	3	29	4	257	323	449	772	191	299	22	8	340	119	+14	+4	+7	-8	+14	3.2
2023	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	39	33	17	2	0	7	6	3	0	2	0	515	590	1.212	1.802	697	435	8	15	732	282	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	33	26	9	1	1	1	7	5	0	4	2	346	485	577	1.062	231	400	15	21	463	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	110	21	1	21	32	96	7	11	3	276	341	492	833	216	316	22	7	366	136	+19	+1	-1	-5	+9	2.4
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	691	594	159	27	2	25	89	129	6	32	7	268	369	446	815	178	303	19	13	364	130	+24	+4	+6	-7	+15	4.2
2026	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	704	626	181	32	3	25	64	130	7	38	13	289	362	470	831	181	327	18	9	365	132	+27	+2	+2	-8	+15	4.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3643	3229	901	168	15	177	357	820	35	162	40	279	357	505	862	226	321	23	10	377	141	+178	+16	+13	-15	+79	27.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	181	36	9	1	3	6	63	0	14	2	199	225	309	534	110	282	34	3	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	57	56	13	1	0	1	1	21	0	3	0	232	246	304	549	71	338	37	2	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	518	458	103	21	5	16	48	174	6	29	15	225	307	397	704	172	309	34	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	394	363	87	17	4	16	23	133	6	16	5	240	296	441	737	201	321	34	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	372	335	106	14	6	21	29	110	5	16	6	316	379	582	961	266	410	30	8	418	169	+31	+1	-10	+4	+8	3.4
2020	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	257	225	63	12	2	17	26	61	5	11	3	280	367	578	945	298	306	24	10	404	160	+18	+1	+6	+3	+6	3.5
2021	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	546	484	136	33	0	41	56	153	2	25	4	281	358	603	961	322	324	28	10	412	165	+42	+3	+3	+6	+12	6.7
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	635	575	150	35	1	24	53	141	3	29	4	261	326	450	777	190	299	22	8	343	119	+14	+4	+7	-8	+14	3.2
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	39	35	15	2	0	5	4	4	0	2	0	429	487	914	1.401	486	395	10	10	585	282	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	111	22	1	20	32	96	7	11	3	279	343	490	833	211	316	22	7	369	136	+19	+1	-1	-5	+9	2.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	691	601	161	29	2	24	82	129	6	32	7	268	361	443	804	175	303	19	12	360	130	+24	+4	+6	-7	+15	4.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	704	632	183	34	3	24	58	130	7	38	13	290	356	467	823	177	327	18	8	363	132	+27	+2	+2	-8	+15	4.0
2016	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	181	36	9	1	3	6	63	0	14	2	199	225	309	534	110	287	34	3	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	—	188	176	48	13	1	4	10	44	0	14	2	273	310	426	736	153	344	23	5	323	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	642	575	129	24	6	19	54	217	7	32	15	224	299	386	685	162	319	34	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A RAW	3 teams	—	642	543	149	30	8	23	86	149	7	32	15	274	381	486	867	212	334	23	13	380	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA MLE	2 teams	—	489	448	106	21	4	19	28	165	11	24	7	237	298	429	726	192	327	34	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA RAW	2 teams	—	489	433	122	29	5	19	43	129	11	24	7	282	361	503	865	222	359	26	9	379	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	372	335	106	14	6	21	29	110	5	16	6	316	379	582	961	266	411	30	8	418	169	+31	+1	-10	+4	+8	3.4
2019	20	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	372	334	106	13	6	22	30	110	5	16	6	317	382	590	972	272	410	30	8	418	169	+31	+1	-10	+4	+8	3.4
2020	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	257	225	63	12	2	17	26	61	5	11	3	280	367	578	945	298	311	24	10	404	160	+18	+1	+6	+3	+6	3.5
2020	21	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	62	11	2	17	27	61	5	11	3	277	367	571	939	295	306	24	11	405	160	+18	+1	+6	+3	+6	3.5
2021	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	546	484	136	33	0	41	56	153	2	25	4	281	358	603	961	322	323	28	10	412	165	+42	+3	+3	+6	+12	6.7
2021	22	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	546	478	135	31	0	42	62	153	2	25	4	282	367	611	978	328	324	28	11	418	165	+42	+3	+3	+6	+12	6.7
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	707	640	174	39	1	31	60	152	3	35	6	272	337	481	818	209	311	21	8	357	128	+24	+5	+7	-8	+15	4.4
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	707	634	174	36	2	33	66	149	3	35	6	274	346	494	839	219	310	21	9	367	128	+24	+5	+7	-8	+15	4.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	111	22	1	20	32	96	7	11	3	279	343	490	833	211	322	22	7	369	136	+19	+1	-1	-5	+9	2.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	438	398	110	21	1	21	32	96	7	11	3	276	341	492	833	216	316	22	7	366	136	+19	+1	-1	-5	+9	2.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	691	601	161	29	2	24	82	129	6	32	7	268	361	443	804	175	304	19	12	360	130	+24	+4	+6	-7	+15	4.2
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	691	594	159	27	2	25	89	129	6	32	7	268	369	446	815	178	303	19	13	364	130	+24	+4	+6	-7	+15	4.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	704	632	183	34	3	24	58	130	7	38	13	290	356	467	823	177	329	18	8	363	132	+27	+2	+2	-8	+15	4.0
2026	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	704	626	181	32	3	25	64	130	7	38	13	289	362	470	831	181	327	18	9	365	132	+27	+2	+2	-8	+15	4.0
2016	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	180	36	9	1	3	6	63	0	14	2	200	225	311	536	111	282	34	3	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	642	576	129	24	6	19	54	217	7	32	15	224	299	385	684	161	312	34	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA MLE	2 teams	—	489	447	106	21	4	19	28	165	11	24	7	237	298	430	727	192	321	34	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	372	335	106	14	6	21	29	110	5	16	6	316	379	582	961	266	410	30	8	418	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	257	224	63	12	2	17	26	61	5	11	3	281	367	580	948	299	306	24	10	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	546	483	136	33	0	41	56	153	2	25	4	282	358	605	962	323	324	28	10	412	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	707	638	174	39	1	31	60	152	3	35	6	273	337	483	820	210	304	21	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	438	396	111	22	1	20	32	96	7	11	3	280	343	492	836	212	316	22	7	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	691	598	161	29	2	24	82	129	6	32	7	269	361	445	806	176	303	19	12	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	704	633	183	34	3	24	58	130	7	38	13	289	356	466	822	177	327	18	8	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	438	396	111	22	1	20	32	96	7	11	3	280	343	492	836	212	316	22	7	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	691	598	161	29	2	24	82	129	6	32	7	269	361	445	806	176	303	19	12	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	704	633	183	34	3	24	58	130	7	38	13	289	356	466	822	177	327	18	8	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	100%	627	557	160	28	2	26	59	119	6	32	6	287	363	486	848	198	322	19	9	372	138	+28	+4	+10	-7	+14	5.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	100%	614	545	154	25	2	26	58	117	6	31	6	284	359	482	841	198	316	19	9	369	138	+28	+4	+10	-7	+13	4.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	100%	614	545	154	27	2	25	58	119	6	27	6	283	358	477	835	194	318	19	9	367	134	+25	+3	+8	-7	+13	4.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	100%	614	546	152	26	2	24	57	121	6	23	5	279	354	467	821	188	315	20	9	361	131	+22	+3	+8	-7	+13	4.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	SD	100%	614	546	150	25	2	24	57	123	6	17	4	274	348	455	803	182	311	20	9	354	126	+19	+2	+7	-7	+13	3.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	SD	100%	614	548	146	24	1	23	56	126	5	11	3	267	340	439	780	173	305	21	9	345	120	+14	+1	+6	-7	+13	2.9
2032	33	MLB MLE	SD	100%	506	452	117	18	1	18	45	107	4	4	2	258	331	420	751	162	298	21	9	333	112	+7	+0	+4	-5	+11	1.7
2033	34	MLB MLE	SD	100%	448	403	100	15	1	15	39	98	3	1	1	247	319	397	716	150	289	22	9	319	102	+1	-0	+2	-5	+10	0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	100%	614	545	152	25	2	25	58	119	6	27	6	279	355	473	828	194	312	19	9	364	134	+25	+3	+8	-7	+13	4.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	100%	614	546	150	24	2	25	57	121	6	23	5	276	351	464	815	188	310	20	9	359	131	+22	+3	+8	-7	+13	4.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	SD	100%	614	546	148	24	2	24	57	123	6	17	4	270	345	452	797	182	306	20	9	352	126	+19	+2	+7	-7	+13	3.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	SD	100%	614	548	144	23	1	23	56	126	5	11	3	263	338	436	774	173	300	21	9	342	120	+14	+1	+6	-7	+13	2.9
2032	33	MLB CTX	SD	100%	506	452	115	17	1	18	45	107	4	4	2	255	328	417	745	162	293	21	9	331	112	+7	+0	+4	-5	+11	1.7
2033	34	MLB CTX	SD	100%	448	403	99	14	1	15	39	98	3	1	1	244	317	395	711	150	284	22	9	317	102	+1	-0	+2	-5	+10	0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7053	6269	1709	295	24	307	669	1514	65	245	61	273	349	474	823	202	313	21	9	362	126	+268	+25	+48	-51	+153	45.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	157	27	2	28	62	140	6	23	6	272	348	471	819	199	312	22	10	362	126	+25	+2	+4	-5	+14	4.2
Career	—	MLE		—	9058	8104	2179	399	37	373	801	2087	89	352	93	269	341	465	807	196	317	23	9	354	126	+295	+28	+58	-58	+166	50.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	157	29	3	27	57	150	6	25	7	270	341	469	810	199	319	23	9	354	126	+25	+2	+5	-5	+14	4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 39 PAwOBA .710 → .585 (−125)K% 7.7% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.69%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	9.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×1.048	11.55%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.958	×0.930	—	×1.048	27.12%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×1.048	5.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	23.33%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.048	16.27%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .710 → .585; ISO .697 → .512; BABIP .435 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASan Antonio Missions · 394 PAwOBA .368 → .311 (−57)K% 27.7% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.66%	÷1.002	×1.220	—	—	33.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.82%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	1.39%
Singles /BIP	24.18%	÷1.072	×0.920	×0.985	×1.050	21.46%
Doubles /BIP	9.02%	÷1.081	×0.840	×0.985	×1.050	7.25%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷1.031	×0.940	×0.985	×1.050	1.55%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷0.824	×0.800	—	×1.050	6.68%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 116, 3B 106, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .368 → .311; ISO .221 → .200; BABIP .370 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 518 PAwOBA .390 → .306 (−84)K% 23.9% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.94%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	33.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.09%	÷1.107	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.22%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.95%
Singles /BIP	21.82%	÷0.985	×0.920	×0.972	×1.050	20.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.47%	÷1.002	×0.830	×0.972	×1.050	7.16%
Triples /BIP	2.28%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.972	×1.050	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	6.84%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 94, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .390 → .306; ISO .239 → .184; BABIP .342 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 57 PAwOBA .259 → .228 (−30)K% 29.8% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.82%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	36.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.75%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷0.996	×0.920	—	×1.050	30.63%
Doubles /BIP	2.63%	÷0.992	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷0.940	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.35%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .259 → .228; ISO .073 → .061; BABIP .351 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Padres · 188 PAwOBA .314 → .226 (−88)K% 23.4% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.40%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.32%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.038	3.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.038	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.008	×1.038	19.50%
Doubles /BIP	9.85%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.008	×1.038	7.42%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.008	×1.038	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.038	2.45%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .314 → .226; ISO .153 → .107; BABIP .344 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Bonds'68-'81 * career totals — 14 seasons, 8,090 PA	12.2	8,090	332	461	265*	352*	511*	-74	+19	52.6	45.4
/162	664	27	38	-6.0	+1.5	4.3	pk7: 38
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	11.5	7,667	330	275	277	349	479	-82	+33	44.6	37.1
/162	664	29	24	-7.1	+2.9	3.9	pk7: 30
#2Shawn Green'93-'07 * career totals — 13 seasons, 7,962 PA	12.0	7,962	328	162	271*	340*	477*	-88	-18	39.5	35.8
/162	664	27	14	-7.3	-1.5	3.3	pk7: 32
#3Roy White'65-'79 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,735 PA	11.6	7,735	160	233	276*	365*	449*	-85	+20	39.4	35.5
/162	664	14	20	-7.3	+1.7	3.4	pk7: 32
#4Carlos Gonzálezlast yr '19 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,551 PA	8.4	5,551	234	122	285	343	500	-50	-23	32.3	30.2
/162	664	28	15	-6.0	-2.7	3.9	pk7: 28
#5Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	10.4	6,929	169	253	277	321	434	-57	+11	25.0	25.4
/162	664	16	24	-5.5	+1.0	2.4	pk7: 26
#6Yasiel Puiglast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,376 PA	5.1	3,376	132	79	277	348	475	-36	-12	17.1	17.1
/162	664	26	16	-7.1	-2.3	3.4	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OGILVIE)	28	60	60	60	55	285/360/481	197	322	25	31	19%	9%	138	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Gómez 2015 · MLB	29	56→58	55→60	60→65	45	280/342/478	199	335	22	34	23%	7%	130	+3.5	252/317/419	167	316	18	23	25%	7%	107	+1.9	238/307/398	160	305	18	21	27%	7%	98	+0.9
●Trevor Story 2021 · MLB	28	53→54	59→65	55	48	273/337/495	222	331	26	24	26%	8%	132	+3.7	238/306/427	189	296	22	21	26%	8%	105	+1.7	225/294/407	182	280	21	22	27%	8%	97	+0.8
●Carlos González 2014 · MLB	28	54→60	58→65	56→55	49	277/338/489	212	325	26	23	23%	8%	131	+3.6	259/311/469	210	300	27	9	23%	7%	117	+2.6	260/317/451	191	299	24	2	21%	7%	117	+2.5
●Ian Kinsler 2010 · MLB	28	52→62	57→60	58→55	56	270/341/479	209	273	24	26	12%	9%	130	+3.5	259/343/438	179	267	20	22	12%	10%	121	+2.9	289/336/450	161	312	17	11	13%	6%	122	+3.4
★Carlos Beltrán 2004 · MLB	27	56→60	58→65	64→60	56	289/361/501	213	312	24	32	16%	10%	141	+4.3	268/349/495	227	279	27	26	15%	11%	136	+3.9	270/357/520	250	276	31	20	16%	12%	146	+5.1
★Trea Turner 2021 · MLB	28	59→65	55→60	61→65	51	296/356/496	200	333	21	30	18%	8%	139	+4.1	304/352/498	194	348	22	25	18%	7%	139	+4.1	296/345/482	186	342	21	26	19%	6%	134	+4.3
●AJ Pollock 2017 · MLB	29	57→61	52→65	59→55	53	287/344/459	172	308	18	29	14%	8%	126	+3.2	258/320/457	199	285	23	20	18%	7%	118	+2.6	280/333/511	231	311	31	10	20%	6%	138	+2.2
★Cliff Floyd 2001 · MLB	28	54→58	58→65	56→55	54	283/358/497	214	306	26	25	17%	9%	140	+4.2	289/358/523	234	312	27	16	17%	8%	146	+4.7	289/361/527	238	310	28	13	16%	9%	149	+4.5
★Jose Altuve 2018 · MLB	28	64→69	53→60	56→60	52	323/377/508	185	339	20	26	11%	7%	149	+4.9	297/358/480	183	321	22	15	14%	8%	136	+3.9	288/368/506	218	302	28	13	15%	10%	147	+4.4
★Alfonso Soriano 2004 · MLB	28	54→56	61→70	56→60	42	287/325/511	224	314	29	30	19%	4%	132	+3.7	275/318/505	230	299	30	24	19%	5%	128	+3.4	275/321/533	257	298	34	27	20%	5%	137	+4.6
●Mike Cameron 2002 · MLB	29	52→53	54→60	58→55	55	261/350/451	190	312	21	26	23%	11%	126	+3.2	246/335/445	199	301	23	23	25%	11%	120	+2.8	248/335/455	208	302	23	20	25%	10%	123	+3.0
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2012 · MLB	28	58→68	54→55	59→65	51	296/350/481	186	311	20	35	13%	7%	133	+3.7	279/331/426	147	308	15	33	14%	7%	114	+2.3	268/325/387	119	306	10	38	15%	7%	103	+1.5
★Preston Wilson 2002 · MLB	28	51→52	59→60	52→55	46	267/327/482	215	313	27	25	24%	7%	126	+3.2	261/328/472	211	303	26	17	23%	8%	124	+3.1	266/330/484	218	309	28	9	23%	8%	128	+2.7
●Tommy Pham 2018 · MLB	30	53→58	56→55	53→55	54	269/359/463	194	333	24	22	25%	11%	132	+3.7	269/358/452	183	324	22	20	22%	11%	130	+3.5	265/357/441	176	316	21	20	21%	12%	128	+2.5
★Randy Arozarena 2023 · MLB	28	53→59	54→55	52→55	46	264/333/453	189	331	20	24	26%	8%	121	+2.9	245/341/424	179	305	21	21	25%	10%	118	+2.6	247/350/436	189	305	22	23	25%	10%	125	+3.5
●Grady Sizemore 2009 · MLB	26	53→58	57→60	58→55	57	270/362/483	213	303	23	25	19%	11%	138	+4.1	247/329/433	186	288	20	17	21%	10%	115	+2.4	235/314/412	177	282	18	11	22%	9%	105	+0.9
●Corey Hart 2008 · MLB	26	53→56	56→65	56→55	46	273/329/481	207	312	22	23	20%	6%	126	+3.2	269/320/463	194	306	20	17	19%	6%	119	+2.7	276/338/504	227	322	28	6	23%	7%	136	+3.9
●Alex Rios 2009 · MLB	28	58→62	52→60	56→55	49	289/339/473	183	322	17	21	16%	7%	127	+3.3	261/308/417	156	288	17	23	16%	6%	103	+1.6	280/315/437	157	315	15	27	16%	4%	110	+2.0
★Bobby Abreu 2002 · MLB	28	57→62	59→60	56→55	62	290/382/526	236	326	24	26	19%	13%	154	+5.3	292/391/499	207	336	20	25	18%	14%	151	+5.1	294/401/496	202	336	20	27	17%	15%	156	+6.3
✕Austin Slater 2022 · MLB	29	49→59	55	56→55	50	251/336/439	187	318	23	22	27%	10%	119	+2.7	255/343/401	146	341	16	17	27%	11%	113	+2.3	250/347/369	119	345	12	14	28%	11%	108	+0.8

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps