Trea Turner

SS Philadelphia Phillies

Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 10.785 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBPHI	539	.295/.338/.469	21	19	124	3.6
2025	32	MLBPHI	639	.304/.356/.457	15	36	127	6.2
2026	33	MLBPHI	700	.242/.298/.378	19	21	88	1.6
2027PROJ	34	MLBPHI	566	.277/.331/.422	16	39	109	3.1
2028PROJ	35	MLBPHI	479	.264/.317/.397	12	22	99	1.2
2029PROJ	36	MLBPHI	403	.253/.305/.373	9	9	89	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2033Service10.785First FA2034

2027Ext$27M2028Ext$27M2029Ext$27M2030Ext$27M2031Ext$27M2032Ext$27M2033Ext$27M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Bat Spd54

xwOBA52

Avg EV47

Barrel%35

Form.274/.337/.406 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .274/.326/.415

CompsFreddy Guzman (age 34) · Rajai Davis (age 35) · Coco Crisp (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 111109vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.277 / .331 / .422

PA566

HR16

SB39

K%20

BB%7

BABIP324

ISO146

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$45M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

580.258

POWER

Barrel%

356.2

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

5471.8

SPEED

Sprint

9029.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▲17% over 60 PA (45d) · proj 20%

BB%8%▲▲10% over 121 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.132·.119 over 109 AB (60d) · proj .141

HR/BB3.0%·2.2% over 89 BBE (60d) · proj 3.6%

BABIP.319·.287 over 87 BIP (60d) · proj .323

SLASH.274/.337/.406·proj .274/.326/.415

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1294 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

414

880

—

wRC+

130

119

◀L

wOBA

361

344

◀L

ISO

170

156

◀L

BABIP

328

337

—

16.2%

18.2%

◀L

BB%

7.7%

5.5%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.785 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$27M	+3.1	$29M	+$1M
2028	Ext	$27M	+1.2	$9M	-$16M
2029	Ext	$27M	+0.3	$1M	-$21M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$82M		$38M	-$36M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$36M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	21	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	216	187	69	14	2	4	24	48	3	14	3	369	449	529	978	160	478	22	11	430	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	36	35	14	0	0	0	1	8	0	7	0	400	417	400	817		519	22	3	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	44	40	9	1	0	1	4	12	0	2	2	225	295	325	620	100	296	27	9	284	78	-1	-0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2015	22	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	205	188	59	7	3	3	13	41	0	14	2	314	358	431	789	117	381	20	6	345	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	295	266	87	17	4	5	25	56	0	15	4	327	385	477	862	150	396	19	8	377	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	324	307	105	14	8	13	14	59	1	33	6	342	373	567	939	225	388	18	4	407	167	+26	+4	+5	+2	+7	4.5
2016	23	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	371	331	100	22	8	6	37	72	0	25	2	302	372	471	844	169	369	19	10	370	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	447	412	117	24	6	11	30	80	4	46	8	284	339	451	790	167	329	18	7	349	125	+13	+6	+2	+5	+10	3.7
2018	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	740	664	180	27	6	19	69	132	5	43	9	271	344	416	760	145	314	18	9	340	116	+14	+5	+12	+8	+16	5.6
2019	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	569	521	155	37	5	19	43	113	3	35	5	298	354	497	852	200	348	20	8	373	138	+26	+5	+5	+6	+12	5.5
2020	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	259	233	78	15	4	12	22	36	2	12	4	335	397	588	985	253	353	14	8	425	176	+24	+1	-1	+3	+6	3.2
2021	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	646	595	195	34	3	28	41	110	6	32	5	328	377	536	913	208	362	17	6	398	158	+45	+4	+5	+7	+14	7.6
2022	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	708	652	194	39	4	21	45	131	3	27	3	298	345	466	811	169	342	19	6	355	131	+26	+4	+3	+8	+15	5.7
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	691	639	170	35	5	26	45	150	6	30	0	266	320	459	779	192	310	22	7	343	114	+11	+6	+0	+7	+15	4.1
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	505	149	25	0	21	27	98	6	19	4	295	338	469	808	174	331	18	5	357	124	+16	+2	+1	+6	+12	3.6
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	589	179	31	7	15	43	107	5	36	7	304	356	457	813	153	350	17	7	360	127	+21	+4	+15	+7	+14	6.2
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	645	156	29	1	19	48	147	4	21	4	242	298	378	677	136	284	21	7	302	88	-10	+3	+0	+8	+15	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6306	5802	1687	311	49	205	431	1175	45	336	57	291	344	467	812	176	333	19	7	357	128	+211	+44	+47	+68	+137	51.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	216	194	57	10	2	3	17	68	3	14	3	294	360	412	772	119	428	31	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	44	40	9	1	0	1	4	12	0	2	2	225	295	325	620	100	296	27	9	283	78	-1	-0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2015	22	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	205	191	57	6	3	2	10	47	0	14	2	298	333	393	726	94	369	23	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	295	274	86	14	4	4	17	67	0	15	4	314	354	438	792	124	396	23	6	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	324	307	107	14	10	13	14	59	1	33	6	349	379	586	965	238	388	18	4	414	167	+26	+4	+5	+2	+7	4.5
2016	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	371	345	94	20	9	5	23	91	0	25	2	272	318	426	744	154	355	25	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	447	412	118	24	7	11	30	80	4	46	8	286	341	459	800	172	329	18	7	353	125	+13	+6	+2	+5	+10	3.7
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	740	667	181	27	7	19	66	132	5	43	9	271	341	418	760	147	314	18	9	339	116	+14	+5	+12	+8	+16	5.6
2019	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	569	523	155	36	6	19	41	113	3	35	5	296	351	497	848	201	348	20	7	372	138	+26	+5	+5	+6	+12	5.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	259	233	79	15	5	12	22	36	2	12	4	339	401	601	1.002	262	353	14	8	429	176	+24	+1	-1	+3	+6	3.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	646	597	198	36	4	27	39	110	6	32	5	332	379	541	920	209	362	17	6	402	158	+45	+4	+5	+7	+14	7.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	708	655	197	41	5	20	44	131	3	27	3	301	348	470	818	169	342	19	6	361	131	+26	+4	+3	+8	+15	5.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	691	641	168	36	5	24	43	150	6	30	0	262	314	446	761	184	310	22	6	337	114	+11	+6	+0	+7	+15	4.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	505	148	26	0	20	27	98	6	19	4	293	336	463	800	170	331	18	5	352	124	+16	+2	+1	+6	+12	3.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	590	178	32	7	14	42	107	5	36	7	302	353	451	804	149	350	17	7	356	127	+21	+4	+15	+7	+14	6.2
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	646	155	30	1	18	47	147	4	21	4	240	296	373	669	133	284	21	7	298	88	-10	+3	+0	+8	+15	1.6
2014	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	252	228	66	12	2	3	19	79	3	21	3	289	352	399	751	110	429	31	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	252	222	83	14	2	4	25	56	3	21	3	374	444	509	953	135	485	22	10	421	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	544	505	153	21	8	7	31	126	0	31	8	303	343	418	761	115	387	23	6	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	544	494	155	25	7	9	42	109	0	31	8	314	368	447	815	134	383	20	8	358	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	695	652	201	34	19	18	37	150	1	58	8	308	346	502	848	193	375	22	5	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	695	638	205	36	16	19	51	131	1	58	8	321	372	517	890	196	378	19	7	387	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	447	412	118	24	7	11	30	80	4	46	8	286	341	459	800	172	332	18	7	353	125	+13	+6	+2	+5	+10	3.7
2017	24	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	447	412	117	24	6	11	30	80	4	46	8	284	339	451	790	167	329	18	7	349	125	+13	+6	+2	+5	+10	3.7
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	740	667	181	27	7	19	66	132	5	43	9	271	341	418	760	147	314	18	9	339	116	+14	+5	+12	+8	+16	5.6
2018	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	740	664	180	27	6	19	69	132	5	43	9	271	344	416	760	145	314	18	9	340	116	+14	+5	+12	+8	+16	5.6
2019	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	569	523	155	36	6	19	41	113	3	35	5	296	351	497	848	201	346	20	7	372	138	+26	+5	+5	+6	+12	5.5
2019	26	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	569	521	155	37	5	19	43	113	3	35	5	298	354	497	852	200	348	20	8	373	138	+26	+5	+5	+6	+12	5.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	259	233	79	15	5	12	22	36	2	12	4	339	401	601	1.002	262	358	14	8	429	176	+24	+1	-1	+3	+6	3.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	259	233	78	15	4	12	22	36	2	12	4	335	397	588	985	253	353	14	8	425	176	+24	+1	-1	+3	+6	3.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	646	597	198	36	4	27	39	110	6	32	5	332	379	541	920	209	369	17	6	402	158	+45	+4	+5	+7	+14	7.6
2021	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	646	595	195	34	3	28	41	110	6	32	5	328	377	536	913	208	362	17	6	398	158	+45	+4	+5	+7	+14	7.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	708	655	197	41	5	20	44	131	3	27	3	301	348	470	818	169	347	19	6	361	131	+26	+4	+3	+8	+15	5.7
2022	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	708	652	194	39	4	21	45	131	3	27	3	298	345	466	811	169	342	19	6	355	131	+26	+4	+3	+8	+15	5.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	691	641	168	36	5	24	43	150	6	30	0	262	314	446	761	184	308	22	6	337	114	+11	+6	+0	+7	+15	4.1
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	691	639	170	35	5	26	45	150	6	30	0	266	320	459	779	192	310	22	7	343	114	+11	+6	+0	+7	+15	4.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	505	148	26	0	20	27	98	6	19	4	293	336	463	800	170	330	18	5	352	124	+16	+2	+1	+6	+12	3.6
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	505	149	25	0	21	27	98	6	19	4	295	338	469	808	174	331	18	5	357	124	+16	+2	+1	+6	+12	3.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	590	178	32	7	14	42	107	5	36	7	302	353	451	804	149	348	17	7	356	127	+21	+4	+15	+7	+14	6.2
2025	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	589	179	31	7	15	43	107	5	36	7	304	356	457	813	153	350	17	7	360	127	+21	+4	+15	+7	+14	6.2
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	646	155	30	1	18	47	147	4	21	4	240	296	373	669	133	283	21	7	298	88	-10	+3	+0	+8	+15	1.6
2026	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	645	156	29	1	19	48	147	4	21	4	242	298	378	677	136	284	21	7	302	88	-10	+3	+0	+8	+15	1.6
2014	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	252	228	66	12	2	3	19	79	3	21	3	289	352	399	751	110	428	31	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	544	508	153	21	8	7	31	126	0	31	8	301	343	415	759	114	378	23	6	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	695	652	201	34	19	18	37	150	1	58	8	308	346	502	848	193	370	22	5	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	447	410	118	24	7	11	30	80	4	46	8	288	341	461	802	173	329	18	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	740	663	181	27	7	19	66	132	5	43	9	273	341	421	762	148	314	18	9	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	569	520	155	36	6	19	41	113	3	35	5	298	351	500	851	202	348	20	7	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	259	233	79	15	5	12	22	36	2	12	4	339	401	601	1.002	262	353	14	8	429	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	646	596	198	36	4	27	39	110	6	32	5	332	379	542	920	210	362	17	6	402	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	708	655	197	41	5	20	44	131	3	27	3	301	348	470	818	169	342	19	6	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	691	637	168	36	5	24	43	150	6	30	0	264	314	449	763	185	310	22	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	501	148	26	0	20	27	98	6	19	4	295	336	467	803	172	331	18	5	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	587	178	32	7	14	42	107	5	36	7	303	353	453	806	150	350	17	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	643	155	30	1	18	47	147	4	21	4	241	296	375	670	134	284	21	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	539	501	148	26	0	20	27	98	6	19	4	295	336	467	803	172	331	18	5	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	639	587	178	32	7	14	42	107	5	36	7	303	353	453	806	150	350	17	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	700	643	155	30	1	18	47	147	4	21	4	241	296	375	670	134	284	21	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	620	569	157	27	3	16	42	123	4	43	6	275	329	416	745	141	323	20	7	330	109	+7	+6	+0	+7	+13	3.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	566	519	144	24	2	16	38	112	4	39	6	277	331	422	753	146	324	20	7	333	109	+6	+5	+0	+6	+12	3.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	479	442	116	19	2	11	31	99	3	22	4	263	316	391	706	128	313	21	6	314	99	-1	+3	-5	+5	+10	1.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	403	373	92	14	1	8	25	87	2	9	2	252	303	367	670	115	304	22	6	299	89	-5	+1	-6	+4	+9	0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	479	442	116	18	2	12	31	99	3	22	4	264	317	397	714	133	313	21	6	317	99	-1	+3	-5	+5	+10	1.2
2029	36	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	403	373	94	14	1	9	25	87	2	9	2	253	305	373	677	119	305	22	6	302	89	-5	+1	-6	+4	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7188	6617	1897	343	52	226	487	1361	50	367	63	287	340	457	797	170	330	19	7	352	121	+204	+48	+36	+77	+156	53.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	171	31	5	20	44	123	5	33	6	286	340	455	795	169	330	19	7	352	121	+18	+4	+3	+7	+14	4.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8877	8188	2348	428	81	246	582	1757	57	481	80	287	338	449	787	162	338	20	7	347	121	+211	+54	+36	+84	+168	56.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	172	31	6	18	43	129	4	35	6	287	339	448	787	162	338	20	7	347	121	+18	+4	+3	+7	+14	4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 371 PAwOBA .362 → .325 (−36)K% 19.4% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.41%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.70%	÷1.110	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.71%	÷1.048	×0.930	×1.024	×1.050	23.57%
Doubles /BIP	8.49%	÷0.959	×0.830	×1.024	×1.050	7.90%
Triples /BIP	3.09%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.024	×1.050	3.58%
Home runs /BIP	2.32%	÷0.978	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.09%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .362 → .325; ISO .169 → .165; BABIP .369 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 295 PAwOBA .370 → .345 (−25)K% 19.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.98%	÷1.018	×1.220	—	—	22.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.47%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.05%	÷0.962	×0.970	×0.997	×1.042	30.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.10%	÷1.070	×0.860	×0.997	×1.042	6.76%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷0.916	×0.950	×0.997	×1.042	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.986	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.96%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .370 → .345; ISO .150 → .133; BABIP .396 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 205 PAwOBA .341 → .317 (−24)K% 20.0% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.043	×1.200	—	—	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.34%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.29%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.023	×1.050	30.95%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.023	×1.050	3.90%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷0.947	×0.970	×1.023	×1.050	2.25%
Home runs /BIP	2.04%	÷1.183	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.52%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .341 → .317; ISO .117 → .102; BABIP .381 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 216 PAwOBA .419 → .335 (−85)K% 22.2% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.958	×1.360	—	—	31.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.65%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.70%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.10%
Singles /BIP	35.25%	÷1.032	×0.920	×1.029	×1.015	32.84%
Doubles /BIP	10.07%	÷1.080	×0.830	×1.029	×1.015	8.08%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.025	×0.910	×1.029	×1.015	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷1.088	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 106, 2B 116, 3B 105, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .419 → .335; ISO .160 → .118; BABIP .478 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Roberto Alomar'88-'04 * career totals — 17 seasons, 10,400 PA	15.7	10,400	210	474	291*	361*	446*	+34	+13	67.5	56.1
/162	664	13	30	+2.2	+0.8	4.3	pk7: 45
#2Barry Larkin'86-'04 * career totals — 19 seasons, 9,057 PA	13.6	9,057	198	379	287*	361*	451*	+96	+6	66.1	53.9
/162	664	15	28	+7.1	+0.4	4.8	pk7: 42
#3Miguel Tejada'97-'13 * career totals — 16 seasons, 9,203 PA	13.9	9,203	307	85	275*	327*	447*	+88	+94	60.5	51.9
/162	664	22	6	+6.4	+6.8	4.4	pk7: 43
#4José Reyeslast yr '18 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,240 PA	12.4	8,240	145	517	283	334	427	+83	+62	56.0	48.3
/162	664	12	42	+6.7	+5.0	4.5	pk7: 40
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	11.6	7,710	238	404	288	338	458	+76	+77	55.1	45.8
/162	664	21	35	+6.6	+6.7	4.7	pk7: 37
#5Ian Kinslerlast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,299 PA	12.5	8,299	257	243	269	337	440	+30	+66	53.0	44.4
/162	664	21	19	+2.4	+5.3	4.2	pk7: 36
#6Rafael Furcal'00-'14 * career totals — 13 seasons, 7,236 PA	10.9	7,236	113	314	272*	335*	394*	+76	+92	40.9	35.6
/162	664	10	29	+7.0	+8.5	3.8	pk7: 30

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trea Turner (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	273/326/412	139	323	15	39	20%	7%	109	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Freddy Guzman 2015 · AAA	34	55→61	42→45	72→70	48	266/317/377	110	312	10	66	18%	7%	97	+1.1	230/286/303	73	288	4	41	20%	7%	68	-1.0	225/285/278	52	284	1	50	20%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Rajai Davis 2016 · MLB	35	54→64	47→50	63→70	46	266/313/416	149	310	12	37	18%	6%	104	+1.6	243/298/374	131	297	12	41	21%	7%	89	+0.5	234/291/346	112	290	10	52	22%	6%	81	-0.0
●Coco Crisp 2013 · MLB	33	53→59	47→50	67→65	54	261/320/406	145	281	13	44	13%	8%	105	+1.7	248/323/399	151	262	16	24	13%	10%	105	+1.7	240/322/384	144	253	16	20	12%	11%	101	+1.0
●Donzell McDonald II 2007 · AAA	32	51→61	46→50	68→65	51	247/318/390	143	298	11	44	20%	8%	101	+1.4	251/316/382	131	316	9	28	22%	8%	97	+1.1	263/326/398	134	324	9	22	20%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Dave Roberts 2007 · MLB	35	57→61	42→45	69→65	57	271/342/390	119	301	6	41	12%	9%	109	+2.0	256/330/367	111	297	6	32	14%	10%	99	+1.2	250/329/353	103	295	3	35	15%	10%	95	+0.5
✕Jarrod Dyson 2018 · MLB	33	53→57	41→45	65→70	51	253/318/360	107	286	7	43	14%	7%	93	+0.8	224/300/316	92	260	9	35	17%	9%	77	-0.3	207/287/286	79	248	7	40	18%	10%	66	-0.5
✕Tom Goodwin 2001 · MLB	33	54→55	40→45	67→65	56	255/334/352	97	311	7	45	20%	11%	97	+1.1	249/311/348	99	300	7	42	18%	8%	88	+0.4	250/304/339	89	300	5	51	17%	7%	84	+0.0
✕Jon Berti 2023 · MLB	33	50→60	42→45	62→60	55	237/326/347	110	304	8	39	23%	11%	94	+0.9	263/324/370	107	324	10	29	21%	8%	98	+1.2	276/329/367	91	337	9	30	20%	6%	100	+0.5
✕Justin Greene 2019 · AAA	33	57→62	44→50	59→60	46	275/327/394	119	340	12	42	22%	7%	104	+1.6	244/294/364	120	321	13	21	27%	6%	85	+0.2	250/289/346	96	332	11	21	27%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Eric Young Sr. 2001 · MLB	34	59→62	41→45	62→60	59	282/353/389	107	292	7	40	6%	9%	113	+2.3	271/333/382	111	284	7	31	7%	8%	104	+1.6	266/343/373	107	279	8	29	7%	9%	107	+1.5
●Starling Marte 2022 · MLB	33	60→68	51→60	62→60	48	297/359/465	168	341	17	37	18%	6%	133	+3.7	282/339/426	144	336	15	30	20%	6%	117	+2.6	278/332/411	133	335	14	29	20%	6%	112	+1.5
✕Alexis Gomez 2011 · AAA	32	55→59	49→50	60→55	48	273/321/418	145	312	17	34	18%	7%	108	+1.9	253/302/386	133	297	13	21	19%	6%	93	+0.8	248/288/374	126	286	7	13	16%	4%	84	+0.0
✕Kazuo Matsui 2009 · MLB	33	57→60	43→45	59→60	52	274/329/397	123	311	8	28	15%	8%	105	+1.7	233/286/330	97	272	8	18	17%	7%	74	-0.5	217/267/295	78	255	7	16	17%	6%	59	-1.4
✕Eric Byrnes 2008 · MLB	32	53→56	53→60	61→60	50	269/326/451	182	286	20	30	15%	7%	118	+2.6	239/297/405	166	255	17	21	14%	7%	97	+1.1	216/268/378	162	223	17	15	13%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Agustin Murillo 2015 · AAA	33	54→62	48→45	56→55	51	268/329/410	141	289	16	27	14%	7%	109	+2.0	247/298/358	111	270	11	20	13%	6%	86	+0.3	240/287/326	86	264	8	18	13%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Chuck Knoblauch 2002 · MLB	34	54→60	42→40	56→60	58	257/342/365	107	280	9	29	12%	10%	104	+1.6	233/309/346	113	249	12	26	12%	9%	88	+0.4	207/280/295	89	214	11	34	10%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Willie Romero 2009 · AAA	34	58→61	44→50	58→55	52	280/333/409	129	308	10	26	13%	7%	109	+2.0	260/321/369	109	298	9	22	15%	8%	97	+1.1	256/316/351	95	296	7	21	15%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Dustin Martin 2017 · AAA	33	54→58	47→50	57→55	46	266/321/409	143	327	15	27	23%	7%	106	+1.8	233/301/375	142	301	15	24	26%	8%	91	+0.7	206/284/344	138	266	16	26	28%	9%	80	-0.1
●Shane Victorino 2013 · MLB	32	53→60	48→55	63→60	54	262/328/422	159	279	13	28	12%	8%	111	+2.1	258/317/391	133	287	13	21	15%	6%	101	+1.4	257/315/377	120	288	12	20	15%	5%	97	+0.6
●Ichiro Suzuki 2008 · MLB	34	66→74	40→45	62→60	48	321/354/416	95	347	7	30	10%	5%	118	+2.7	319/351/409	90	349	7	29	10%	4%	116	+2.5	317/349/404	87	348	6	31	10%	4%	115	+2.9

Trea Turner

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps