Dylan Cease — OGILVIE

Dylan Cease P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 4.5 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 159 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8779vR 71

ERA3.31

FIP3.22

K%33.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%23.0%

ROS IP159

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD4550

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9033.3%

p9034.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.265

SL+3.0 (33%)

FB+1.2 (45%)

CH+0.6 (11%)

SI (8%)

CU (11%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	11	8	24	101	25	16	0	73%	2.2	16.8%	19.8%	-3.0%	0.0%	2.62	4.19	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	11	8	24	101	25	16	0	73%	2.2	24.8%	15.8%	8.9%	0.0%	2.62	3.02	—
2017	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	22	22	93	388	126	44	3	100%	4.2	24.0%	13.4%	10.6%	1.2%	3.28	3.44	—
2017	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	22	22	93	388	126	44	3	100%	4.2	32.5%	11.3%	21.1%	0.8%	3.28	2.23	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	492	160	50	8	100%	5.4	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.0%	2.40	3.49	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	492	160	50	8	100%	5.4	32.5%	10.2%	22.4%	1.6%	2.40	2.57	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	141	630	154	66	19	100%	4.9	23.1%	10.7%	12.3%	2.9%	5.16	4.11	+1.3
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	141	630	154	66	19	100%	4.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	3.0%	5.16	4.07	+1.4
2020	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	12	12	58	255	44	33	12	100%	4.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.3%	4.6%	4.01	5.82	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	12	12	58	255	44	33	12	100%	4.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.3%	4.7%	4.01	5.96	-0.7
2021	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	166	708	226	68	20	100%	5.2	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.14	+3.6
2021	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	166	708	226	68	20	100%	5.2	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.17	+3.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	184	747	227	76	16	100%	5.8	30.4%	10.2%	20.2%	2.1%	2.20	2.98	+4.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	184	747	227	76	16	100%	5.8	30.4%	10.2%	20.2%	2.1%	2.20	3.00	+4.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	100%	5.4	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.33	+3.4
2023	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	100%	5.4	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.37	+3.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.3%	3.47	2.96	+4.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.3%	3.47	2.96	+4.6
2024	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.4%	3.47	3.00	+4.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.8%	4.55	3.35	+3.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.8%	4.55	3.35	+3.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.9%	4.55	3.40	+3.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	173	704	245	79	13	100%	5.8	34.9%	11.4%	23.5%	1.6%	2.60	2.48	+5.4
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	173	704	245	79	13	100%	5.8	34.9%	11.4%	23.5%	1.6%	2.60	2.48	+5.4
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	173	704	245	79	13	100%	5.8	34.8%	11.2%	23.6%	1.8%	2.60	2.61	+5.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			217	217	1184	4989	1470	499	132	100%	5.5	29.5%	10.0%	19.5%	2.6%	3.67	3.33	+22.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TOR	26	26	159	671	225	70	15	100%	6.1	33.5%	10.5%	23.0%	2.2%	3.31	3.22	+3.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	147	620	203	68	15	100%	6.1	32.6%	10.9%	21.8%	2.5%	3.41	3.47	+2.6
2029	33	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	135	569	181	65	16	100%	6.1	31.8%	11.3%	20.5%	2.8%	3.62	3.75	+1.9
2030	34	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	123	518	160	61	16	100%	6.1	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	3.1%	3.88	4.06	+1.2
2031	35	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	110	465	139	58	16	100%	6.1	29.9%	12.4%	17.5%	3.4%	4.19	4.39	+0.7
2032	36	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	411	119	53	16	100%	6.1	28.9%	13.0%	15.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.76	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	147	621	203	68	15	100%	6.1	32.6%	10.9%	21.8%	2.5%	3.41	3.47	+2.6
2029	33	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	135	570	181	65	16	100%	6.1	31.8%	11.3%	20.5%	2.8%	3.62	3.75	+1.9
2030	34	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	123	519	160	61	16	100%	6.2	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	3.1%	3.88	4.06	+1.2
2031	35	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	110	464	139	58	16	100%	6.1	29.9%	12.4%	17.5%	3.4%	4.19	4.39	+0.7
2032	36	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	118	53	16	100%	6.1	28.9%	13.0%	15.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.76	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	319	1796	7573	2272	803	211	100%	5.6	30.0%	10.6%	19.4%	2.8%	3.74	3.44	+32.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	843	253	89	23	100%	5.6	30.0%	10.6%	19.4%	2.8%	3.74	3.44	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		289	286	1498	6293	1777	663	148	99%	5.2	28.2%	10.5%	17.7%	2.4%	3.58	3.34	+29.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	840	237	89	20	99%	5.2	28.2%	10.5%	17.7%	2.4%	3.58	3.34	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Cease (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.22	33.5%	10.5%	2.2%	—	3.74	31.8%	20.5%	404	+0.52	—	—	—
Jacob deGrom R 2019 · 2.40 FIP	31	SP	2.40	31.7%	5.3%	2.4%	.277	1.51	42.5%	38.1%	224	-0.89	0.74	1,692	60
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	49
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	46
Corey Kluber R 2017 · 2.26 FIP	31	SP	2.26	34.1%	4.4%	2.7%	.263	3.11	25.9%	21.2%	251	+0.85	2.16	1,636	44
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	41
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	39
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	34
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	32
Josh Lowey R 2016 · 2.22 FIP	31	SP	2.22	29.1%	6.1%	1.5%	.278	2.68	24.0%	17.2%	180	+0.46	2.22	426	30
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.12	728	29
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	28
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	25
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	25
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	25
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	25
Miguel Batista R 2002 · 3.81 FIP	31	SP-	3.81	14.2%	8.5%	1.5%	.267	4.13	14.9%	6.3%	467	+0.32	3.39	1,943	24
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	23
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	23
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	23
Wandy Rodriguez L 2010 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP	3.37	21.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.297	4.06	18.1%	11.6%	459	+0.69	3.37	1,572	21

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.8	140	30.3%	10.7%	1.06	3.70
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74