Dylan Cease P Toronto Blue Jays
Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 4.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7768vR 59
ERA2.82
FIP2.64
K%34.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%24.5%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 174 IP
K: +24.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+24KBB: -5.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-5BBCONTACT: +17.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+17CONTACTSTAM: +23.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+24STAMTotal WAR: +6.31 (174 IP)+6.3WAR
3.43.93.12.41.81.20.5-0.2-0.52628303234
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—60
STUF6565
CTRL4545
CMD4550
K†7070
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p9035.9%
K%
p9036.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.264
SL+3.0 (33%)
FB+1.2 (46%)
CH+0.6 (11%)
SI (9%)
CU (10%)
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   6.517 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$8M+2.5$20M+$12M
Totals $8M $20M +$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201519ROKAZL Cubs118241012516073%2.216.8%19.8%-3.0%0.0%2.624.19—
201519ROKAZL Cubs118241012516073%2.224.8%15.8%8.9%0.0%2.623.02—
201721AKannapolis Intimidators222293388126443100%4.224.0%13.4%10.6%1.6%3.283.62—
201721AKannapolis Intimidators222293388126443100%4.232.5%11.3%21.1%0.8%3.282.23—
201822MIX2 levels2323124492160508100%5.425.7%11.5%14.2%2.1%2.403.51—
201822MIX2 levels2323124492160508100%5.432.5%10.2%22.4%1.6%2.402.57—
201923MIX2 levels29291416301546619100%4.923.1%10.7%12.3%2.8%5.164.04+2.2
201923MIX2 levels29291416301546619100%4.924.4%10.5%14.0%3.0%5.164.07+2.2
202024MLBChicago White Sox121258255443312100%4.917.3%12.9%4.3%4.5%4.015.78-0.8
202024MLBChicago White Sox121258255443312100%4.917.3%12.9%4.3%4.7%4.015.96-1.0
202125MLBChicago White Sox32321667082266820100%5.231.9%9.6%22.3%2.7%3.913.12+4.4
202125MLBChicago White Sox32321667082266820100%5.231.9%9.6%22.3%2.8%3.913.17+4.3
202226MLBChicago White Sox32321847472277616100%5.830.4%10.2%20.2%2.1%2.202.96+5.3
202226MLBChicago White Sox32321847472277616100%5.830.4%10.2%20.2%2.1%2.203.00+5.2
202327MLBChicago White Sox33331777842147619100%5.427.3%9.7%17.6%2.3%4.583.31+4.3
202327MLBChicago White Sox33331777842147619100%5.427.3%9.7%17.6%2.4%4.583.37+4.2
202428MLBSan Diego Padres33331897622246518100%5.729.4%8.5%20.9%2.5%3.473.09+5.1
202428MLBSan Diego Padres33331897622246518100%5.729.4%8.5%20.9%2.4%3.473.00+5.3
202529MLBSan Diego Padres32321687222156921100%5.229.8%9.6%20.2%3.1%4.553.51+3.7
202529MLBSan Diego Padres32321687222156921100%5.229.8%9.6%20.2%2.9%4.553.40+3.9
▸ 2026 Season
202630MLBToronto Blue Jays1818102420154457100%5.736.9%11.0%25.9%1.2%2.902.06+4.0
ROS30MLBTOR121272303105317100%6.034.7%10.2%24.5%2.1%2.822.64+1.8
ROS30MLBTOR121272304106317100%6.034.7%10.2%24.5%2.1%2.822.64+1.8
2026 TOT30MLBTOR——1747232597614——35.8%10.5%25.4%1.9%2.872.30+6.3
2026 FULL30MLBTOR——1707182597614——36.1%10.6%25.5%1.9%2.942.42+5.9
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202731MLBTOR26261586692237016100%6.133.3%10.5%22.7%2.4%3.293.31+3.9
202832MLBTOR24241476192016816100%6.132.5%10.9%21.5%2.6%3.463.57+3.1
202933MLBTOR22221345681806517100%6.131.6%11.4%20.2%2.9%3.693.85+2.4
203034MLBTOR20201225171596117100%6.130.7%11.9%18.8%3.2%3.974.15+1.8
203135MLBTOR18181104641385816100%6.129.8%12.4%17.3%3.6%4.284.49+1.2
203236MLBTOR1616974111185316100%6.128.7%13.0%15.7%3.9%4.634.86+0.5
203337MLBTOR141485358994916100%6.127.6%13.7%14.0%4.3%5.015.26-0.2
203438MLBTOR121273308884215100%6.128.5%13.6%14.9%4.8%5.265.42-0.5
202731MLBTOR26261586672227016100%6.133.3%10.5%22.7%2.4%3.293.31+3.9
202832MLBTOR24241476212016816100%6.132.5%10.9%21.5%2.6%3.463.57+3.1
202933MLBTOR22221345661796416100%6.131.6%11.4%20.2%2.9%3.693.85+2.4
203034MLBTOR20201225151586117100%6.130.7%11.9%18.8%3.2%3.974.15+1.8
203135MLBTOR18181104641385816100%6.129.8%12.4%17.3%3.6%4.284.49+1.2
203236MLBTOR1616974101185316100%6.128.7%13.0%15.7%3.9%4.634.86+0.5
203337MLBTOR141485359994916100%6.127.6%13.7%14.0%4.3%5.015.26-0.2
203438MLBTOR121273308884215100%6.128.5%13.6%14.9%4.8%5.265.42-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—372372211289222689962261100%5.730.1%10.8%19.4%2.9%3.853.53+46.3
/ 200 IP—35352008452559125100%5.730.1%10.8%19.4%2.9%3.853.53+4.4
Career—27727414276009168762914699%5.228.1%10.5%17.6%2.4%3.653.39+33.6
/ 200 IP—3938200842236882099%5.228.1%10.5%17.6%2.4%3.653.39+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Dylan Cease (OGILVIE) —— 3.70 30.1%9.2%2.9%— 3.56 32.5%21.6%440 -0.14 ———
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.40 FIP 30 SP 3.40 29.1%11.1%2.5%.274 4.64 22.8%10.3%164 +1.24 3.40 330 40
Yu Darvish R 2026 · 3.79 FIP 30 SP 3.79 27.3%7.4%3.7%.279 3.41 30.7%23.5%295 -0.38 1.91 1,253 32
Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.68 FIP 29 SP 3.68 31.5%10.4%3.5%.230 2.17 29.7%23.1%133 -1.51 1.85 613 31
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP 30 SP 4.46 24.4%6.7%4.7%.293 4.91 21.1%13.0%469 +0.45 2.87 864 30
Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 3.33 FIP 30 SP 3.33 28.7%6.6%3.3%.299 3.14 29.1%22.3%231 -0.19 2.42 811 30
Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP 32 SP 3.43 24.2%5.1%3.2%.282 4.26 18.4%11.9%474 +0.83 3.43 645 30
Max Scherzer R 2027 · 2.61 FIP 31 SP 2.61 30.7%3.6%3.0%.264 2.68 33.4%27.4%650 +0.07 2.13 1,761 28
Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 2.86 FIP 30 SP 2.86 28.3%5.5%2.6%.300 3.21 29.2%23.4%340 +0.35 2.67 1,455 28
Chris Archer R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 30 SP 4.72 27.2%10.1%4.8%.292 4.37 20.7%10.4%136 -0.35 2.88 1,018 27
James Shields R 2029 · 4.36 FIP 33 SP 4.36 25.1%8.8%4.1%.292 5.12 17.9%8.6%517 +0.76 4.36 720 26
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 3.72 FIP 30 SP 3.72 23.7%7.8%3.0%.277 4.56 19.9%13.3%494 +0.84 3.72 918 26
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP 30 SP 3.30 21.1%7.8%1.8%.311 2.34 26.7%20.1%231 -0.96 2.28 426 26
Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.10 FIP 30 SP 4.10 23.0%7.7%3.6%.258 3.32 23.2%16.9%402 -0.78 3.02 1,507 24
Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.34 FIP 30 SP 3.34 27.5%11.3%2.1%.305 — ——— — 3.01 603 24
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.09 FIP 30 SP 4.09 26.9%10.5%3.5%.276 4.36 19.4%10.3%188 +0.27 2.34 577 24
Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.11 FIP 30 SP 3.11 26.4%6.5%2.6%.267 2.73 29.6%25.0%454 -0.38 2.27 1,190 24
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP 31 SP 3.67 21.2%8.5%2.4%.302 4.58 20.6%10.5%285 +0.91 3.67 469 24
Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 3.35 FIP 30 SP 3.35 23.9%9.4%2.0%.237 4.07 20.3%12.6%477 +0.72 2.09 1,046 23
Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP 32 SP 3.51 21.1%5.8%2.7%.265 3.18 29.6%23.4%648 -0.33 2.24 1,584 23
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP 30 SP 4.21 20.3%6.8%3.6%.289 3.67 21.1%14.8%390 -0.54 3.54 1,102 23

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION912230.7%11.5%1.254.01
Dinelson Lamet ('23)66130.0%10.7%1.294.66
Vince Velasquez ('23)98524.9%9.3%1.484.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)711324.8%8.7%1.073.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)715926.8%8.7%1.133.68
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
James Paxton ('24)810625.8%7.7%1.123.89