Dylan Cease — OGILVIE

Dylan Cease P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 4.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION165 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8173vR 65

ERA3.07

FIP2.84

K%34.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%24.1%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 180 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8597.0

Whiff%

p9033.6%

p9035.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.259

SL+3.0 (34%)

FB+1.2 (45%)

CH+0.6 (12%)

SI (8%)

CU (10%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.2M
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	11	8	24	101	25	16	0	73%	2.2	16.8%	19.8%	-3.0%	0.0%	2.62	4.19	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	11	8	24	101	25	16	0	73%	2.2	24.8%	15.8%	8.9%	0.0%	2.62	3.02	—
2017	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	22	22	93	388	126	44	3	100%	4.2	24.0%	13.4%	10.6%	1.2%	3.28	3.44	—
2017	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	22	22	93	388	126	44	3	100%	4.2	32.5%	11.3%	21.1%	0.8%	3.28	2.23	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	492	160	50	8	100%	5.4	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.0%	2.40	3.49	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	492	160	50	8	100%	5.4	32.5%	10.2%	22.4%	1.6%	2.40	2.57	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	141	630	154	66	19	100%	4.9	23.1%	10.7%	12.3%	2.9%	5.16	4.11	+1.3
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	141	630	154	66	19	100%	4.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	3.0%	5.16	4.07	+1.4
2020	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	12	12	58	255	44	33	12	100%	4.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.3%	4.6%	4.01	5.82	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	12	12	58	255	44	33	12	100%	4.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.3%	4.7%	4.01	5.96	-0.7
2021	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	166	708	226	68	20	100%	5.2	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.14	+3.6
2021	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	166	708	226	68	20	100%	5.2	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.17	+3.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	184	747	227	76	16	100%	5.8	30.4%	10.2%	20.2%	2.1%	2.20	2.98	+4.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	184	747	227	76	16	100%	5.8	30.4%	10.2%	20.2%	2.1%	2.20	3.00	+4.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	100%	5.4	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.33	+3.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	100%	5.4	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.33	+3.4
2023	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	100%	5.4	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.37	+3.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.3%	3.47	2.96	+4.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.3%	3.47	2.96	+4.6
2024	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	100%	5.7	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	2.4%	3.47	3.00	+4.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.8%	4.55	3.35	+3.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.8%	4.55	3.35	+3.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	100%	5.2	29.8%	9.6%	20.2%	2.9%	4.55	3.40	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	215	1177	4948	1458	488	132	100%	5.5	29.5%	9.9%	19.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.32	+22.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	28	28	165	663	233	68	13	100%	5.9	35.2%	10.4%	24.8%	1.7%	2.61	2.38	+5.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	28	28	165	663	233	68	13	100%	5.9	35.2%	10.4%	24.8%	1.7%	2.61	2.38	+5.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	TOR	1	1	4	19	6	1	2	100%	4.0	31.6%	5.3%	26.3%	10.5%	11.25	6.88	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	TOR	27	27	161	644	227	67	11	100%	6.0	35.2%	10.4%	24.8%	1.7%	2.40	2.38	+5.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	TOR	27	27	161	644	227	67	11	100%	6.0	35.2%	10.4%	24.8%	1.7%	2.40	2.38	+5.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	15	62	21	6	2	100%	7.4	34.1%	10.0%	24.1%	2.5%	3.07	2.84	+0.4
ROS	30	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	15	63	22	6	2	100%	7.5	34.1%	10.0%	24.1%	2.5%	3.07	2.84	+0.4
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	180	725	254	74	15	—	—	35.1%	10.2%	24.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.42	+5.8
FULL	30	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	176	744	254	74	15	—	—	34.2%	10.0%	24.2%	2.0%	2.71	2.55	+5.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	158	669	220	69	16	100%	6.1	32.9%	10.3%	22.5%	2.4%	3.31	3.32	+3.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	147	619	199	67	16	100%	6.1	32.1%	10.8%	21.3%	2.6%	3.47	3.57	+2.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	134	568	177	64	16	100%	6.1	31.2%	11.2%	20.0%	2.9%	3.70	3.85	+1.7
2030	34	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	122	517	157	60	17	100%	6.1	30.3%	11.7%	18.6%	3.2%	3.97	4.15	+1.1
2031	35	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	110	464	136	57	16	100%	6.1	29.4%	12.2%	17.1%	3.5%	4.28	4.49	+0.5
2032	36	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	411	116	53	16	100%	6.1	28.3%	12.8%	15.5%	3.9%	4.63	4.86	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	158	667	219	69	16	100%	6.1	32.9%	10.3%	22.5%	2.4%	3.31	3.32	+3.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	147	621	199	67	16	100%	6.1	32.1%	10.8%	21.3%	2.6%	3.47	3.57	+2.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	134	566	177	63	16	100%	6.1	31.2%	11.2%	20.0%	2.9%	3.70	3.85	+1.7
2030	34	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	122	515	156	60	16	100%	6.1	30.3%	11.7%	18.6%	3.2%	3.97	4.15	+1.1
2031	35	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	110	464	136	57	16	100%	6.1	29.4%	12.2%	17.1%	3.5%	4.28	4.49	+0.5
2032	36	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	116	53	16	100%	6.1	28.3%	12.8%	15.5%	3.9%	4.63	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		346	346	1961	8258	2484	864	231	100%	5.7	30.1%	10.5%	19.6%	2.8%	3.73	3.42	+35.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	842	253	88	24	100%	5.7	30.1%	10.5%	19.6%	2.8%	3.73	3.42	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		287	284	1490	6252	1765	652	148	99%	5.2	28.2%	10.4%	17.8%	2.4%	3.59	3.34	+31.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	839	237	87	20	99%	5.2	28.2%	10.4%	17.8%	2.4%	3.59	3.34	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Cease (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	30.1%	9.3%	2.7%	—	3.57	32.1%	21.4%	440	-0.02	—	—	—
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	58
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	53
Carlos Carrasco R 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	28.3%	5.5%	2.6%	.300	3.20	29.2%	23.4%	340	+0.35	2.67	1,455	51
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	48
Sonny Gray R 2020 · 2.78 FIP	30	SP	2.78	30.6%	11.1%	1.6%	.286	3.06	25.1%	17.4%	439	+0.28	2.55	1,792	44
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	43
Yu Darvish R 2017 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	27.3%	7.4%	3.4%	.279	3.53	30.7%	23.5%	295	-0.06	1.97	1,253	42
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	41
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	41
Corey Kluber R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	30	SP	3.10	26.4%	6.5%	2.6%	.267	2.73	29.6%	25.0%	454	-0.37	2.26	1,190	41
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	40
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.1%	10.6%	183	+1.12	3.40	349	40
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	40
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	39
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	38
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	38
Johnny Cueto R 2016 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	22.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.288	4.51	20.1%	12.2%	216	+1.66	2.85	1,148	37
Trevor Cahill R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP	3.37	22.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.268	5.01	19.9%	10.6%	164	+1.64	3.37	556	36
James Paxton L 2019 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	29.4%	8.7%	3.4%	.312	3.93	28.9%	21.1%	20	+0.34	2.46	924	36
Kenta Maeda R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	30	SP-	2.89	28.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	3.55	27.4%	20.7%	327	+0.66	2.87	1,092	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	134	30.8%	11.0%	1.14	3.82
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17