Dylan Cease — OGILVIE

Dylan Cease P Toronto Blue Jays

+3.3 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 3.3 · 2026

ERA3.83

FIP3.59

xFIP2.06

SIERA2.69

K%28.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%19.7%

IP170

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.3peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p9098.0

Whiff%

p9040.1%

p9039.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.264

SL+3.0 (36%)

FB+1.2 (44%)

CH+0.6 (11%)

SI (8%)

CU (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Cubs	11	8	24	101	25	16	0	16.8%	19.8%	0.0%	2.62	4.19	+0.2
2017	21	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	22	22	93	388	126	44	3	24.0%	13.4%	1.1%	3.28	3.39	+2.0
2018	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	23	23	124	492	160	50	8	25.7%	11.5%	2.0%	2.40	3.49	+2.5
2019	23	MLB	Chicago White Sox	29	29	141	630	154	66	19	23.1%	10.7%	2.9%	5.16	4.09	+1.9
2020	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	12	12	58	255	44	33	12	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	4.01	5.73	-0.5
2021	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	32	32	166	708	226	68	20	31.9%	9.6%	2.5%	3.91	3.01	+4.3
2022	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	32	32	184	747	227	76	16	30.4%	10.2%	2.3%	2.20	3.07	+4.7
2023	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	33	33	177	784	214	76	19	27.3%	9.7%	2.3%	4.58	3.30	+4.0
2024	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	33	33	189	762	224	65	18	29.4%	8.5%	2.1%	3.47	2.87	+5.2
2025	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	32	32	168	722	215	69	21	29.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.55	3.21	+4.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	4	4	21	89	32	12	0	36.0%	13.5%	0.0%	1.74	1.77	+0.7
ROS	30	MLB	TOR	25	25	137	580	187	59	13	32.2%	10.1%	2.2%	3.16	2.84	+3.8
2026 Total	30	MLB	TOR	—	—	158	669	219	71	13	32.7%	10.5%	1.9%	2.98	2.70	+4.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	TOR	26	26	142	599	190	61	13	31.7%	10.2%	2.2%	3.41	3.32	+3.2
2028	32	MLB	TOR	23	23	127	535	166	56	12	31.1%	10.4%	2.3%	3.43	3.44	+2.7
2029	33	MLB	TOR	20	20	112	475	144	50	11	30.4%	10.6%	2.4%	3.51	3.56	+2.2
2030	34	MLB	TOR	18	18	99	420	125	45	10	29.7%	10.8%	2.5%	3.63	3.70	+1.8
2031	35	MLB	TOR	16	16	87	368	107	40	10	29.0%	11.0%	2.6%	3.77	3.86	+1.3
2032	36	MLB	TOR	14	14	76	320	96	33	9	30.2%	10.4%	2.7%	3.76	3.75	+1.1
2033	37	MLB	TOR	12	12	65	276	81	30	8	29.4%	10.7%	2.9%	3.86	3.92	+0.8
2034	38	MLB	TOR	56	—	56	236	67	26	7	28.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.01	4.11	+0.5
2035	39	MLB	TOR	48	—	48	202	56	23	6	27.7%	11.3%	3.1%	4.18	4.30	+0.4
2036	40	MLB	TOR	41	—	41	173	46	20	6	26.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.36	4.48	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			263	260	1346	5678	1564	595	132	27.5%	10.5%	2.3%	3.68	3.38	+29.3
/ 200 IP	—			39	39	200	844	232	88	20	27.5%	10.5%	2.3%	3.68	3.38	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Cease (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.46	30.6%	9.2%	2.5%	—	3.43	31.1%	20.7%	381	-0.03	—	—	—
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	41
Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	40
Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	38
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.70	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.33	4.37	474	38
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	30	SP	3.38	29.1%	11.1%	2.4%	.274	4.02	22.7%	11.0%	139	+0.64	3.38	305	37
Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	32	SP	3.48	21.1%	5.8%	2.6%	.265	3.17	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.31	2.27	1,584	37
Edinson Volquez R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	32	SP	3.69	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.34	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.65	3.69	498	37
Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	37
Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	20.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.309	4.27	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.32	2.03	804	36
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	30	SP	4.26	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	401	36
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	36
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	36
Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	36
Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	36
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	36
Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	36
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	30	SP	4.18	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.92	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.74	2.91	864	35
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.1%	5.7%	1.7%	.318	3.83	16.4%	10.4%	252	+0.16	3.48	515	35
Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.71 FIP	33	SP	3.71	18.7%	4.2%	3.0%	.285	4.61	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.90	3.71	393	35
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	30	SP	3.68	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.03	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.35	3.68	887	35

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

NTCDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+3.3	$26M	-$4M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+3.2	$26M	-$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+2.7	$23M	-$7M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+2.2	$19M	-$11M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+1.8	$16M	-$14M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+1.3	$12M	-$18M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+1.1	$11M	-$19M
Totals		$210M		$134M	-$76M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$76M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.