Bryce Harper — OGILVIE

Bryce Harper1B Philadelphia Phillies

Age 33 L/R 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB HR +11%H +4% Svc 13.924 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.7 · 2026

wRC+†vL 143145vR 144

AVG/OBP/SLG.269 / .363 / .492

PA500

HR23

SB7

K%21

BB%12

xwOBA.418

Barrel%13.9%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

55↗71

SPD

50→50

EYE

63↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 13.924 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+2.7	$22M	-$4M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+2.2	$18M	-$7M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.4	$12M	-$13M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.7	$3M	-$22M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$25M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	—	—	—
Totals		$152M		$53M	-$99M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$99M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	39	35	12	3	2	1	4	11	0	1	1	.343	.410	.629	1.039	.286	.478	28	10	—	—	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2011	18	A	3 teams	557	512	126	22	2	20	38	139	3	30	8	.246	.302	.414	.716	.168	.298	25	7	.313	98	-1	+3	+0	-6	+16	1.2
2012	19	MLB	2 teams	681	610	159	32	9	22	62	137	2	19	7	.261	.331	.451	.782	.190	.302	20	9	.335	115	+11	+1	+7	+2	+19	4.2
2013	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	497	424	112	25	3	22	61	94	5	11	4	.264	.363	.493	.856	.229	.288	19	12	.370	141	+23	+1	-1	-5	+14	3.2
2014	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	395	352	92	10	2	14	38	104	1	2	2	.261	.335	.420	.755	.159	.332	26	10	.321	104	+2	-0	-3	-4	+11	0.5
2015	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	654	521	163	35	1	38	124	131	5	6	4	.313	.449	.603	1.052	.290	.351	20	19	.428	186	+63	-0	-10	-7	+19	6.6
2016	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	627	506	123	25	2	23	108	117	3	21	10	.243	.379	.437	.816	.194	.266	19	17	.333	113	+9	+0	-6	-7	+18	1.4
2017	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	492	420	133	27	1	30	68	99	1	4	2	.317	.413	.600	1.013	.283	.350	20	14	.416	176	+42	+0	-7	-5	+14	4.5
2018	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	695	550	136	31	0	35	130	169	6	13	3	.247	.397	.495	.891	.247	.285	24	19	.369	141	+32	+1	-15	-7	+20	3.1
2019	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	682	573	141	33	1	30	99	178	6	15	3	.246	.363	.464	.827	.218	.301	26	15	.348	124	+19	+2	-2	-7	+19	3.1
2020	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	244	190	50	9	1	11	49	43	2	8	2	.263	.419	.495	.914	.232	.283	18	20	.375	145	+12	+1	-1	-3	+7	1.7
2021	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	599	488	149	43	1	34	100	134	5	13	3	.305	.428	.607	1.035	.301	.355	22	17	.419	179	+54	+1	-6	-6	+17	6.0
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	426	370	102	24	1	18	46	87	3	11	4	.276	.360	.492	.852	.216	.309	20	11	.350	126	+12	+1	-0	-5	+12	2.1
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	546	457	132	29	1	19	80	119	5	11	3	.289	.400	.481	.882	.193	.350	22	15	.377	147	+29	+1	-1	-10	+15	3.5
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	631	550	156	43	0	27	76	138	2	7	4	.284	.373	.509	.882	.225	.333	22	12	.363	136	+26	-0	+0	-11	+18	3.3
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	580	501	126	33	0	24	70	121	6	12	2	.251	.350	.461	.811	.210	.284	21	12	.347	123	+15	+2	-5	-10	+16	1.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	105	92	24	5	1	5	13	16	0	1	1	.261	.352	.500	.852	.239	.268	15	12	.370	141	+5	-0	-5	-2	+3	0.1
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	395	342	92	22	1	18	48	80	2	6	2	.269	.362	.497	.859	.228	.300	20	12	.376	146	+21	+0	-3	-4	+11	2.6
TOT	33	MLB	PHI	500	434	116	27	2	23	61	96	2	7	3	.267	.360	.498	.858	.230	.293	19	12	.375	145	+26	+0	-8	-6	+14	2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	34	MLB	PHI	453	392	104	25	1	20	55	81	3	6	2	.265	.360	.487	.847	.222	.283	18	12	.369	140	+21	+0	-8	-5	+13	2.2
2028	35	MLB	PHI	397	345	89	21	1	17	47	75	2	4	2	.258	.350	.472	.823	.214	.280	19	12	.360	134	+15	+0	-8	-4	+11	1.4
2029	36	MLB	PHI	337	292	73	17	1	13	40	67	2	3	1	.250	.344	.449	.793	.199	.277	20	12	.349	125	+10	+0	-9	-4	+10	0.7
2030	37	MLB	PHI	273	238	57	13	1	10	32	57	1	2	1	.239	.332	.429	.761	.189	.272	21	12	.338	117	+5	+0	-9	-3	+8	0.1
2031	38	MLB	PHI	204	178	40	9	0	7	23	44	1	1	0	.225	.317	.393	.710	.169	.266	22	11	.325	107	+2	+0	-9	-2	+6	-0.4
2032	39	MLB	PHI	131	114	25	6	0	4	15	29	1	0	0	.219	.315	.377	.693	.158	.259	22	11	.312	97	-0	+0	-9	-1	+4	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10535	8960	2392	537	32	457	1413	2254	67	206	70	.267	.371	.487	.858	.220	.306	21	13	.361	134	+410	+13	-106	-116	+298	51.1
/ 162G	—			650	553	147	33	2	28	87	139	4	13	4	.266	.370	.485	.854	.219	.304	21	13	.361	134	+25	+1	-7	-7	+18	3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	39	35	12	3	2	1	4	11	0	1	1	.343	.410	.629	1.039	.286	.478	28	10	.446	199	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.5
2011	18	AA	Harrisburg Senators	147	129	33	7	1	3	15	26	0	7	2	.256	.333	.395	.729	.140	.294	18	10	.321	104	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2011	18	A	Hagerstown Suns	305	258	82	17	1	14	44	61	3	19	5	.318	.423	.554	.977	.236	.372	20	14	.429	186	+30	+2	—	—	+9	4.1
2011	18	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	105	93	31	6	2	6	11	22	0	4	1	.333	.404	.634	1.038	.301	.379	21	10	.443	197	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2012	19	MLB	Washington Nationals	597	533	144	26	9	22	56	120	2	18	6	.270	.342	.477	.818	.206	.310	20	9	.357	131	+21	+1	+7	+2	+17	4.9
2012	19	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	84	74	18	4	1	1	9	14	0	1	1	.243	.325	.365	.690	.122	.288	17	11	.309	95	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2013	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	497	424	116	24	3	20	61	94	5	11	4	.274	.371	.486	.857	.212	.306	19	12	.374	144	+25	+1	-1	-5	+14	3.4
2014	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	395	352	96	10	2	13	38	104	1	2	2	.273	.345	.423	.769	.151	.352	26	10	.341	119	+8	-0	-3	-4	+11	1.2
2015	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	654	521	172	38	1	42	124	131	5	6	4	.330	.463	.649	1.112	.319	.369	20	19	.475	221	+90	-0	-10	-7	+19	9.3
2016	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	627	506	123	24	2	24	108	117	3	21	10	.243	.379	.441	.820	.198	.264	19	17	.363	136	+25	+0	-6	-7	+18	3.1
2017	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	492	420	134	27	1	29	68	99	1	4	2	.319	.415	.595	1.010	.276	.356	20	14	.436	192	+51	+0	-7	-5	+14	5.4
2018	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	695	550	137	34	0	34	130	169	6	13	3	.249	.398	.496	.894	.247	.289	24	19	.391	158	+45	+1	-15	-7	+20	4.5
2019	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	682	573	149	36	1	35	99	178	6	15	3	.260	.375	.510	.884	.250	.313	26	15	.387	154	+42	+2	-2	-7	+19	5.5
2020	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	244	190	51	9	2	13	49	43	2	8	2	.268	.423	.542	.965	.274	.279	18	20	.418	178	+21	+1	-1	-3	+7	2.6
2021	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	599	488	151	42	1	35	100	134	5	13	3	.309	.432	.615	1.046	.305	.359	22	17	.447	200	+68	+1	-6	-6	+17	7.5
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	426	370	106	28	1	18	46	87	3	11	4	.286	.370	.514	.883	.227	.324	20	11	.382	150	+24	+1	-0	-5	+12	3.3
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	546	457	134	29	1	21	80	119	5	11	3	.293	.404	.499	.903	.206	.352	22	15	.398	163	+39	+1	-1	-10	+15	4.5
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	631	550	157	42	0	30	76	138	2	7	4	.285	.374	.525	.900	.240	.331	22	12	.393	159	+42	-0	+0	-11	+18	4.9
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	580	501	131	32	0	27	70	121	6	12	2	.261	.359	.487	.846	.226	.292	21	12	.372	143	+28	+2	-5	-10	+16	3.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			7665	6435	1801	401	24	363	1105	1654	52	152	52	.280	.390	.519	.909	.239	.321	22	14	.396	161	+530	+10	-51	-86	+217	63.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Harper (OGILVIE)	33	55	55→71	50	40	.267/.360/.493	.226	.285	23	8	17%	12%	146	+4.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cliff Floyd 2006 · MLB	33	51→61	60→65	50→55	56	.271/.357/.490	.219	.290	28	11	18%	10%	144	+4.8	.263/.346/.445	.182	.287	22	8	17%	9%	128	+3.6	.262/.347/.422	.160	.291	19	4	17%	9%	115	+1.5
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	49→46	61→65	46→50	57	.261/.358/.492	.231	.297	28	7	22%	12%	144	+4.8	.247/.323/.426	.179	.291	19	6	21%	9%	113	+2.6	.232/.302/.379	.147	.281	14	6	22%	7%	87	+0.3
●Ryan Klesko 2004 · MLB	33	52→60	60→65	46→50	63	.276/.371/.499	.224	.287	27	9	15%	13%	150	+5.2	.267/.369/.443	.176	.295	19	5	15%	14%	135	+4.2	.264/.367/.420	.156	.298	14	5	15%	14%	123	+2.6
●Josh Willingham 2012 · MLB	33	49→53	60	48→45	56	.258/.358/.478	.219	.297	27	7	23%	12%	141	+4.5	.241/.350/.457	.216	.286	27	4	25%	12%	132	+4.0	.226/.348/.431	.205	.272	26	2	26%	13%	118	+2.4
●Charlie Blackmon 2019 · MLB	33	56→62	57→60	47→55	51	.288/.355/.490	.202	.320	25	12	18%	8%	142	+4.6	.278/.342/.464	.186	.311	21	6	17%	8%	130	+3.8	.275/.342/.442	.168	.307	18	3	16%	8%	121	+2.6
★George Springer 2023 · MLB	33	50→59	60→70	51→55	54	.265/.343/.486	.222	.285	28	11	19%	10%	137	+4.3	.260/.336/.437	.177	.292	22	15	19%	10%	121	+3.2	.261/.343/.436	.174	.293	22	17	19%	10%	119	+3.2
✕Anthony Rizzo 2023 · MLB	33	44→54	60→65	44→45	56	.238/.342/.455	.217	.242	28	7	17%	10%	129	+3.7	.239/.325/.396	.157	.272	19	4	20%	9%	107	+2.2	.237/.317/.354	.116	.283	14	0	20%	8%	89	+0.6
●Shawn Green 2005 · MLB	32	53→60	57→65	45→50	58	.274/.359/.480	.206	.295	25	6	17%	11%	141	+4.6	.278/.349/.452	.174	.305	19	7	15%	9%	130	+3.8	.282/.350/.444	.162	.308	16	8	14%	8%	121	+3.1
✕Josh Hamilton 2014 · MLB	33	50→60	58→65	49→50	48	.261/.324/.471	.210	.304	26	7	23%	8%	124	+3.4	.256/.316/.431	.175	.327	20	5	27%	8%	111	+2.5	.260/.318/.421	.160	.343	19	3	28%	7%	102	+1.0
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	49→59	63→65	44→50	59	.264/.365/.511	.247	.301	31	5	23%	13%	151	+5.3	.254/.358/.475	.221	.331	28	4	29%	13%	140	+4.5	.242/.357/.442	.199	.336	24	1	32%	14%	124	+2.0
✕Luke Scott 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	60→65	45	56	.264/.346/.488	.224	.289	28	3	20%	11%	138	+4.4	.246/.322/.443	.197	.284	24	5	22%	9%	117	+2.9	.230/.304/.407	.178	.272	21	5	23%	8%	95	+0.7
★Jermaine Dye 2007 · MLB	33	53→62	65→70	47→45	51	.286/.352/.537	.251	.306	34	8	19%	8%	154	+5.4	.276/.341/.518	.242	.294	32	5	18%	8%	144	+4.8	.265/.334/.492	.228	.281	30	2	18%	9%	131	+3.9
●Steve Pearce 2016 · MLB	33	48→57	59→60	48→50	52	.256/.333/.471	.215	.283	27	6	20%	9%	129	+3.7	.260/.338/.457	.197	.290	24	3	19%	9%	127	+3.6	.265/.349/.459	.194	.292	24	0	18%	10%	127	+1.9
★José Abreu 2020 · MLB	33	53→63	59→65	46→40	45	.279/.332/.494	.215	.312	26	3	20%	6%	135	+4.2	.278/.346/.486	.208	.319	26	2	21%	8%	138	+4.4	.286/.365/.477	.191	.329	23	0	20%	9%	139	+3.9
●Carlos Lee 2009 · MLB	33	56→59	62→65	48→50	55	.299/.356/.532	.233	.288	30	10	10%	8%	154	+5.5	.281/.332/.470	.189	.278	24	5	9%	7%	128	+3.7	.271/.325/.441	.171	.269	20	4	9%	7%	111	+2.7
✕Eric Thames 2020 · MLB	33	46→53	63→65	49→45	52	.246/.341/.492	.246	.312	31	7	30%	11%	137	+4.3	.236/.320/.420	.184	.326	22	7	32%	10%	110	+2.4	.210/.306/.326	.116	.290	14	4	30%	10%	69	-0.1
●Aubrey Huff 2009 · MLB	32	55→60	56→60	49→45	54	.285/.346/.491	.206	.298	23	3	14%	8%	139	+4.4	.264/.336/.442	.178	.284	20	4	14%	9%	122	+3.3	.250/.330/.407	.157	.271	17	4	15%	10%	104	+2.1
●Matt Carpenter 2020 · MLB	34	46→56	59→65	47→45	62	.243/.360/.465	.222	.283	26	5	24%	14%	138	+4.4	.225/.338/.416	.191	.284	22	6	27%	13%	117	+2.9	.221/.335/.446	.225	.271	28	2	28%	13%	120	+1.1
✕C.J. Cron 2022 · MLB	32	48→53	60→65	47→40	52	.257/.341/.476	.218	.289	28	3	22%	9%	134	+4.1	.244/.311/.423	.179	.294	22	2	24%	8%	108	+2.3	.237/.294/.403	.166	.287	21	0	25%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Carlos González 2018 · MLB	32	52→62	55→65	46→55	50	.266/.329/.459	.192	.307	23	4	22%	9%	124	+3.4	.248/.314/.403	.155	.306	17	5	23%	9%	103	+1.9	.238/.304/.385	.147	.295	17	4	24%	8%	88	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)