Bryce Harper

1B Philadelphia Phillies

Age 34 L/R 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 14.924 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBPHI	631	.285/.374/.525	30	7	140	3.3
2025	32	MLBPHI	580	.261/.359/.487	27	12	129	2.0
2026	33	MLBPHI	693	.269/.384/.485	29	7	139	2.9
2027PROJ	34	MLBPHI	557	.270/.368/.504	27	8	140	3.3
2028PROJ	35	MLBPHI	520	.259/.357/.479	24	4	131	1.8
2029PROJ	36	MLBPHI	472	.248/.346/.453	20	1	121	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service14.924First FA2028NTC

2027Ext$25M2028Ext$25M2029Ext$25M2030Ext$25M2031Ext$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Avg EV74

Barrel%69

Bat Spd69

Speed43

Form.256/.347/.437 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .267/.363/.490

CompsMo Vaughn (age 34) · Eric Thames (age 33) · Luke Scott (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 129140vR 144

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .368 / .504

PA557

HR27

SB8

K%21

BB%13

BABIP304

ISO237

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$53M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

700.268

POWER

Barrel%

6911.0

Avg EV

7490.8

Bat Spd

6973.3

SPEED

Sprint

4327.2

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%▼24% over 117 PA (60d) · proj 21%

BB%12%▼11% over 117 PA (60d) · proj 13%

ISO.182▼▼.117 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .224

HR/BB5.1%▼2.6% over 76 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%

BABIP.308▲.365 over 74 BIP (60d) · proj .303

SLASH.256/.347/.437▼▼proj .267/.363/.490

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1321 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

504

817

—

wRC+

138

141

—

wOBA

373

377

—

ISO

217

247

▶R

BABIP

331

293

◀L

22.2%

20.2%

▶R

BB%

10.3%

11.0%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 14.924 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$25M	+3.2	$30M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$25M	+1.8	$13M	-$9M
2029	Ext	$25M	+0.9	$3M	-$17M
2030	Ext	$25M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$18M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$102M		$47M	-$40M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$40M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	17	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	39	35	12	3	2	1	4	11	0	1	1	343	410	629	1.039	286	478	28	10	446	188	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	147	129	33	7	1	3	15	26	0	7	2	256	333	395	729	140	294	18	10	321	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	305	258	82	17	1	14	44	61	3	19	5	318	423	554	977	236	372	20	14	429	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	105	93	31	6	2	6	11	22	0	4	1	333	404	634	1.038	301	379	21	10	443	186	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	597	533	144	26	9	22	56	120	2	18	6	270	342	477	818	206	310	20	9	357	130	+22	+1	+7	+2	+13	4.6
2012	19	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	84	74	18	4	1	1	9	14	0	1	1	243	325	365	690	122	288	17	11	309	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	497	424	116	24	3	20	61	94	5	11	4	274	371	486	857	212	306	19	12	374	136	+21	+1	-1	-5	+11	2.7
2014	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	395	352	96	10	2	13	38	104	1	2	2	273	345	423	769	151	352	26	10	341	113	+6	-0	-3	-4	+9	0.7
2015	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	654	521	172	38	1	42	124	131	5	6	4	330	463	649	1.112	319	369	20	19	475	196	+75	-0	-10	-7	+14	7.3
2016	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	627	506	123	24	2	24	108	117	3	21	10	243	379	441	820	198	264	19	17	363	117	+13	+0	-6	-7	+14	1.4
2017	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	492	420	134	27	1	29	68	99	1	4	2	319	415	595	1.010	276	356	20	14	436	170	+41	+0	-7	-5	+11	4.1
2018	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	695	550	137	34	0	34	130	169	6	13	3	249	398	496	894	247	289	24	19	391	139	+33	+1	-15	-7	+15	2.7
2019	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	682	573	149	36	1	35	99	178	6	15	3	260	375	510	884	250	313	26	15	387	136	+29	+2	-2	-7	+15	3.8
2020	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	244	190	51	9	2	13	49	43	2	8	2	268	423	542	965	274	279	18	20	418	149	+14	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.7
2021	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	599	488	151	42	1	35	100	134	5	13	3	309	432	615	1.046	305	359	22	17	447	173	+52	+1	-6	-6	+13	5.5
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	426	370	106	28	1	18	46	87	3	11	4	286	370	514	883	227	324	20	11	382	132	+16	+1	-0	-5	+9	2.2
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	546	457	134	29	1	21	80	119	5	11	3	293	404	499	903	206	352	22	15	398	145	+29	+1	-1	-10	+12	3.2
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	550	157	42	0	30	76	138	2	7	4	285	374	525	900	240	331	22	12	393	140	+30	-0	+0	-11	+14	3.3
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	501	131	32	0	27	70	121	6	12	2	261	359	487	846	226	292	21	12	372	129	+20	+2	-4	-10	+13	2.0
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	577	155	32	3	29	107	148	1	7	6	269	384	485	869	217	309	21	15	381	139	+32	-1	-5	-12	+15	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	8358	7012	1956	433	27	392	1212	1802	53	159	58	279	389	516	905	237	320	22	15	395	153	+530	+9	-56	-98	+181	57.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	18	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	147	133	35	7	1	3	11	31	0	7	2	263	319	398	718	135	309	21	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	305	278	72	12	1	12	24	82	3	19	5	259	325	439	763	180	326	27	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	597	533	146	26	11	22	56	120	2	18	6	274	345	488	833	214	310	20	9	361	130	+22	+1	+7	+2	+13	4.6
2012	19	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	84	76	17	3	1	1	7	17	0	1	1	224	289	329	618	105	274	20	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	497	428	117	24	4	20	57	94	5	11	4	273	365	488	854	215	306	19	11	370	136	+21	+1	-1	-5	+11	2.7
2014	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	395	356	96	10	2	13	34	104	1	2	2	270	335	419	754	149	352	26	9	335	113	+6	-0	-3	-4	+9	0.7
2015	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	536	171	37	1	42	109	131	5	6	4	319	438	627	1.065	308	369	20	17	458	196	+75	-0	-10	-7	+14	7.3
2016	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	627	526	123	24	2	24	88	117	3	21	10	234	347	424	771	190	264	19	14	341	117	+13	+0	-6	-7	+14	1.4
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	492	431	134	27	1	29	57	99	1	4	2	311	393	580	973	269	356	20	12	420	170	+41	+0	-7	-5	+11	4.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	695	566	136	33	0	34	114	169	6	13	3	240	373	479	852	239	289	24	16	374	139	+33	+1	-15	-7	+15	2.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	682	584	148	37	1	33	88	178	6	15	3	253	357	490	847	236	313	26	13	370	136	+29	+2	-2	-7	+15	3.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	244	198	50	9	2	12	41	43	2	8	2	253	386	500	886	247	279	18	17	388	149	+14	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	599	502	150	43	1	33	86	134	5	13	3	299	406	586	992	287	359	22	14	424	173	+52	+1	-6	-6	+13	5.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	426	379	106	29	1	17	37	87	3	11	4	280	348	496	844	216	324	20	9	363	132	+16	+1	-0	-5	+9	2.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	546	465	134	30	1	20	72	119	5	11	3	288	389	486	875	198	352	22	13	383	145	+29	+1	-1	-10	+12	3.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	561	156	43	0	28	65	138	2	7	4	278	355	504	860	226	331	22	10	375	140	+30	-0	+0	-11	+14	3.3
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	507	130	33	0	25	64	121	6	12	2	256	347	469	816	213	292	21	11	359	129	+20	+2	-4	-10	+13	2.0
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	580	154	33	3	27	104	148	1	7	6	266	378	472	851	207	309	21	15	373	139	+32	-1	-5	-12	+15	2.9
2010	17	INTL MLE	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	39	35	12	3	2	1	4	11	0	1	1	343	410	629	1.039	286	478	28	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	INTL RAW	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	39	35	12	3	2	1	4	11	0	1	1	343	410	629	1.039	286	478	28	10	446	188	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	557	507	133	24	2	19	43	140	3	30	8	262	324	430	754	168	325	25	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A RAW	3 teams	—	557	480	146	30	4	23	70	109	3	30	8	304	396	527	923	223	350	20	13	403	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	681	609	163	29	12	23	63	137	2	19	7	268	338	468	806	200	310	20	9	350	123	+19	+1	+7	+2	+15	4.4
2012	19	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	681	607	162	30	10	23	65	134	2	19	7	267	340	463	803	196	307	20	10	351	123	+19	+1	+7	+2	+15	4.4
2013	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	497	428	117	24	4	20	57	94	5	11	4	273	365	488	854	215	305	19	11	370	136	+21	+1	-1	-5	+11	2.7
2013	20	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	497	424	116	24	3	20	61	94	5	11	4	274	371	486	857	212	306	19	12	374	136	+21	+1	-1	-5	+11	2.7
2014	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	395	356	96	10	2	13	34	104	1	2	2	270	335	419	754	149	346	26	9	335	113	+6	-0	-3	-4	+9	0.7
2014	21	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	395	352	96	10	2	13	38	104	1	2	2	273	345	423	769	151	352	26	10	341	113	+6	-0	-3	-4	+9	0.7
2015	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	536	171	37	1	42	109	131	5	6	4	319	438	627	1.065	308	351	20	17	458	196	+75	-0	-10	-7	+14	7.3
2015	22	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	654	521	172	38	1	42	124	131	5	6	4	330	463	649	1.112	319	369	20	19	475	196	+75	-0	-10	-7	+14	7.3
2016	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	627	526	123	24	2	24	88	117	3	21	10	234	347	424	771	190	251	19	14	341	117	+13	+0	-6	-7	+14	1.4
2016	23	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	627	506	123	24	2	24	108	117	3	21	10	243	379	441	820	198	264	19	17	363	117	+13	+0	-6	-7	+14	1.4
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	492	431	134	27	1	29	57	99	1	4	2	311	393	580	973	269	343	20	12	420	170	+41	+0	-7	-5	+11	4.1
2017	24	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	492	420	134	27	1	29	68	99	1	4	2	319	415	595	1.010	276	356	20	14	436	170	+41	+0	-7	-5	+11	4.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	695	566	136	33	0	34	114	169	6	13	3	240	373	479	852	239	274	24	16	374	139	+33	+1	-15	-7	+15	2.7
2018	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	695	550	137	34	0	34	130	169	6	13	3	249	398	496	894	247	289	24	19	391	139	+33	+1	-15	-7	+15	2.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	682	584	148	37	1	33	88	178	6	15	3	253	357	490	847	236	305	26	13	370	136	+29	+2	-2	-7	+15	3.8
2019	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	682	573	149	36	1	35	99	178	6	15	3	260	375	510	884	250	313	26	15	387	136	+29	+2	-2	-7	+15	3.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	244	198	50	9	2	12	41	43	2	8	2	253	386	500	886	247	262	18	17	388	149	+14	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	244	190	51	9	2	13	49	43	2	8	2	268	423	542	965	274	279	18	20	418	149	+14	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	599	502	150	43	1	33	86	134	5	13	3	299	406	586	992	287	345	22	14	424	173	+52	+1	-6	-6	+13	5.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	599	488	151	42	1	35	100	134	5	13	3	309	432	615	1.046	305	359	22	17	447	173	+52	+1	-6	-6	+13	5.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	426	379	106	29	1	17	37	87	3	11	4	280	348	496	844	216	316	20	9	363	132	+16	+1	-0	-5	+9	2.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	426	370	106	28	1	18	46	87	3	11	4	286	370	514	883	227	324	20	11	382	132	+16	+1	-0	-5	+9	2.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	546	465	134	30	1	20	72	119	5	11	3	288	389	486	875	198	345	22	13	383	145	+29	+1	-1	-10	+12	3.2
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	546	457	134	29	1	21	80	119	5	11	3	293	404	499	903	206	352	22	15	398	145	+29	+1	-1	-10	+12	3.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	561	156	43	0	28	65	138	2	7	4	278	355	504	860	226	322	22	10	375	140	+30	-0	+0	-11	+14	3.3
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	550	157	42	0	30	76	138	2	7	4	285	374	525	900	240	331	22	12	393	140	+30	-0	+0	-11	+14	3.3
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	507	130	33	0	25	64	121	6	12	2	256	347	469	816	213	288	21	11	359	129	+20	+2	-4	-10	+13	2.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	501	131	32	0	27	70	121	6	12	2	261	359	487	846	226	292	21	12	372	129	+20	+2	-4	-10	+13	2.0
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	580	154	33	3	27	104	148	1	7	6	266	378	472	851	207	308	21	15	373	139	+32	-1	-5	-12	+15	2.9
2026	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	577	155	32	3	29	107	148	1	7	6	269	384	485	869	217	309	21	15	381	139	+32	-1	-5	-12	+15	2.9
2011	18	A MLE	3 teams	—	557	506	133	24	2	19	43	140	3	30	8	263	324	431	755	168	320	25	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	681	611	163	29	12	23	63	137	2	19	7	267	338	466	805	200	305	20	9	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	497	432	117	24	4	20	57	94	5	11	4	271	365	484	849	213	306	19	11	370	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	395	357	96	10	2	13	34	104	1	2	2	269	335	417	752	148	352	26	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	535	171	37	1	42	109	131	5	6	4	320	438	628	1.066	308	369	20	17	458	196	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	627	531	123	24	2	24	88	117	3	21	10	232	347	420	767	188	264	19	14	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	492	431	134	27	1	29	57	99	1	4	2	311	393	580	973	269	356	20	12	420	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	695	570	136	33	0	34	114	169	6	13	3	239	373	475	849	237	289	24	16	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	682	583	148	37	1	33	88	178	6	15	3	254	357	491	847	237	313	26	13	370	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	244	199	50	9	2	12	41	43	2	8	2	251	386	497	883	246	279	18	17	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	599	503	150	43	1	33	86	134	5	13	3	298	406	584	991	286	359	22	14	424	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	426	383	106	29	1	17	37	87	3	11	4	277	348	491	839	214	324	20	9	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	546	464	134	30	1	20	72	119	5	11	3	289	389	487	876	198	352	22	13	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	559	156	43	0	28	65	138	2	7	4	279	355	506	861	227	331	22	10	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	505	130	33	0	25	64	121	6	12	2	257	347	471	818	214	292	21	11	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	583	154	33	3	27	104	148	1	7	6	264	378	470	848	206	309	21	15	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	631	559	156	43	0	28	65	138	2	7	4	279	355	506	861	227	331	22	10	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	580	505	130	33	0	25	64	121	6	12	2	257	347	471	818	214	292	21	11	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	693	583	154	33	3	27	104	148	1	7	6	264	378	470	848	206	309	21	15	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	613	526	140	32	2	27	79	131	3	9	2	267	366	491	856	224	303	21	13	375	140	+29	+1	+3	-11	+13	3.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	557	477	130	28	2	27	72	119	3	8	2	270	368	504	872	233	304	21	13	381	140	+27	+1	+2	-10	+12	3.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	520	447	114	25	1	22	66	114	2	4	2	256	355	467	821	210	293	22	13	362	131	+19	+0	-3	-9	+11	1.8
2029	36	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	472	408	100	21	1	19	59	106	2	1	1	245	343	442	785	197	283	22	12	347	121	+12	-0	-4	-8	+10	0.9
2030	37	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	412	357	83	17	1	15	51	95	1	0	0	234	332	416	748	182	272	23	12	333	111	+6	+0	-5	-7	+9	0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	520	447	115	24	1	24	66	114	2	4	2	259	357	479	836	220	294	22	13	367	131	+19	+0	-3	-9	+11	1.8
2029	36	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	472	408	100	20	1	20	59	106	2	1	1	248	346	453	799	205	283	22	12	353	121	+12	-0	-4	-8	+10	0.9
2030	37	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	412	357	85	16	1	17	51	95	1	0	0	236	334	427	761	190	273	23	12	338	111	+6	+0	-5	-7	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	9762	8224	2256	493	30	453	1388	2117	58	164	61	274	383	507	890	232	315	22	14	389	137	+566	+8	-69	-123	+212	60.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	548	150	33	2	30	92	141	4	11	4	274	382	505	887	232	314	22	14	389	137	+38	+1	-5	-8	+14	4.0
Career	—	MLE		—	10999	9459	2538	560	40	481	1374	2404	64	204	73	268	365	489	853	220	309	22	12	371	137	+593	+9	-67	-133	+224	63.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	559	149	33	2	28	81	142	4	12	4	267	363	483	846	216	307	22	12	371	137	+37	+1	-4	-8	+14	4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2012 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 84 PAwOBA .301 → .270 (−31)K% 16.7% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	20.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.992	×0.930	×0.994	×1.050	19.57%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.002	×0.830	×0.994	×1.050	5.76%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.008	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷0.925	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.59%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 102, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .301 → .270; ISO .122 → .112; BABIP .288 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AHagerstown Suns · 305 PAwOBA .411 → .340 (−71)K% 20.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.13%	÷1.059	×0.660	—	×1.045	7.90%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.79%
Singles /BIP	25.38%	÷1.009	×0.920	×0.987	×1.045	23.86%
Doubles /BIP	8.63%	÷1.166	×0.820	×0.987	×1.045	6.26%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.082	×0.940	×0.987	×1.045	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	7.11%	÷0.965	×0.820	—	×1.045	6.31%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 133, 3B 116, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .411 → .340; ISO .236 → .199; BABIP .372 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAHarrisburg Senators · 147 PAwOBA .317 → .306 (−11)K% 17.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.69%	÷1.014	×1.220	—	—	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.20%	÷1.023	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.36%	÷0.981	×0.970	×1.041	×1.050	23.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.80%	÷0.976	×0.860	×1.041	×1.050	6.55%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.934	×0.950	×1.041	×1.050	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	2.91%	÷0.936	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.55%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 87, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .317 → .306; ISO .140 → .133; BABIP .294 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Albert Pujolslast yr '22 MVPROYAS×3SS career totals — 22 seasons, 13,041 PA	19.6	13,041	703	117	296	374	544	-212	-86	94.3	76.9
/162	664	36	6	-10.8	-4.4	4.8	pk7: 60
#2Reggie Jackson'67-'87 * career totals — 21 seasons, 11,416 PA	17.2	11,416	563	228	262*	358*	531*	-148	-41	72.9	57.7
/162	664	33	13	-8.6	-2.4	4.2	pk7: 42
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons	15.5	10,319	474	172	275	378	506	-191	-95	69.3	54.6
/162	664	30	11	-12.3	-6.1	4.5	pk7: 40
#3Carlos Delgado'93-'09 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,657 PA	13.0	8,657	473	14	268*	369*	528*	-158	-25	56.9	49.4
/162	664	36	1	-12.1	-1.9	4.4	pk7: 42
#4Fred McGriff'86-'04 * career totals — 18 seasons, 10,174 PA	15.3	10,174	493	72	276*	368*	514*	-187	-22	59.8	48.4
/162	664	32	5	-12.2	-1.4	3.9	pk7: 37
#5Matt Hollidaylast yr '18 AS×7SS×4 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,981 PA	12.0	7,981	316	108	299	379	510	-89	-91	52.3	45.5
/162	664	26	9	-7.4	-7.5	4.4	pk7: 39
#6Mark Teixeiralast yr '16 AS×3GG×5SS×3 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,029 PA	12.1	8,029	409	26	268	360	509	-143	-74	42.1	38.1
/162	664	34	2	-11.9	-6.1	3.5	pk7: 34

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Harper (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	265/363/486	221	303	25	8	21%	13%	140	+3.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Mo Vaughn 2002 · MLB	34	51	60	48→30	50	265/346/480	215	316	29	4	25%	9%	132	+3.7	250/334/439	189	303	26	3	25%	10%	119	+2.7	255/339/449	194	309	28	0	26%	10%	124	+2.8
✕Eric Thames 2020 · MLB	33	46→54	63→65	49→45	49	244/332/488	244	310	31	7	31%	10%	129	+3.4	233/312/409	176	322	21	7	32%	9%	103	+1.6	201/292/313	112	277	13	4	30%	9%	76	-0.1
✕Luke Scott 2011 · MLB	33	50→54	60→65	46→45	54	263/338/485	222	287	28	3	20%	10%	130	+3.5	240/311/437	197	276	24	5	22%	9%	109	+2.0	223/294/407	184	261	22	5	23%	8%	98	+0.6
●Brandon Belt 2023 · MLB	35	48→58	62→65	46→50	55	255/352/484	230	304	30	5	26%	12%	135	+3.9	251/352/462	211	348	25	4	32%	13%	130	+3.5	251/366/485	234	367	28	0	35%	15%	141	+2.9
●Matt Carpenter 2020 · MLB	34	44→54	58→65	48→45	59	236/343/446	211	275	25	6	24%	13%	124	+3.1	220/329/402	182	277	21	6	27%	12%	109	+2.0	220/332/438	218	271	26	2	28%	13%	118	+1.0
●Josh Willingham 2012 · MLB	33	48→53	61→65	49→45	55	254/349/478	223	292	29	7	23%	11%	133	+3.7	239/345/453	214	284	27	4	25%	12%	126	+3.2	227/344/433	206	272	26	2	26%	13%	122	+2.4
✕Adam LaRoche 2015 · MLB	35	47→53	56→65	48→40	56	249/333/437	189	275	25	4	20%	11%	118	+2.6	229/313/383	154	283	18	4	25%	10%	98	+1.2	206/293/336	130	268	15	0	27%	10%	80	-0.1
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	50→46	61→65	45→50	57	264/358/497	233	300	28	7	22%	12%	140	+4.2	244/316/416	172	288	18	7	21%	8%	106	+1.8	229/294/374	145	276	14	6	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Cliff Floyd 2006 · MLB	33	50→58	60→65	50→55	53	266/341/482	216	281	28	11	18%	9%	131	+3.6	260/335/436	176	284	22	8	17%	8%	118	+2.7	259/337/417	158	287	19	4	17%	8%	115	+1.3
●Darin Ruf 2021 · MLB	35	51→53	58→60	50→40	55	267/349/479	212	311	26	9	23%	11%	132	+3.7	246/345/439	193	313	24	5	27%	12%	122	+3.0	229/335/403	174	296	21	3	28%	13%	111	+1.0
✕Kole Calhoun 2022 · MLB	34	43→53	60	46→50	52	235/317/448	213	262	29	5	24%	10%	115	+2.4	217/282/369	152	272	18	4	26%	7%	83	+0.1	207/270/350	143	261	16	2	27%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Charlie Blackmon 2020 · MLB	34	56→59	58→60	45→55	49	287/346/501	214	315	25	7	18%	7%	137	+4.0	267/328/425	158	303	17	5	17%	7%	113	+2.3	253/324/385	132	288	13	4	16%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Roberto Petagine 2006 · MLB	35	51	59→65	44→30	57	267/346/484	217	283	27	4	17%	10%	132	+3.7	263/341/449	186	301	22	6	20%	10%	123	+3.0	315/394/481	166	368	16	0	17%	11%	147	+1.3
●Russell Branyan 2010 · MLB	34	45→43	66→70	49→45	49	246/330/500	253	302	35	5	30%	10%	131	+3.6	240/321/474	234	294	32	5	29%	10%	122	+3.0	229/314/467	237	274	33	2	29%	11%	119	+1.1
✕Mitch Moreland 2020 · MLB	34	45→55	58→60	49→40	53	242/317/451	210	270	26	3	22%	10%	115	+2.4	247/314/465	218	278	28	4	22%	9%	118	+2.6	241/305/470	228	264	31	0	22%	8%	116	+0.8
✕Geoff Jenkins 2008 · MLB	34	51→57	55→65	44→45	45	261/325/454	193	311	23	4	24%	7%	119	+2.7	245/299/411	166	290	20	6	22%	6%	99	+1.3	239/286/381	143	280	17	2	21%	6%	88	+0.2
★Paul Goldschmidt 2022 · MLB	34	55→61	59→65	53→55	55	285/363/501	216	323	27	8	21%	11%	143	+4.4	283/361/500	217	334	27	9	23%	11%	142	+4.4	273/351/480	206	327	27	9	24%	10%	136	+4.4
✕Eduardo Perez 2004 · MLB	34	49	57→60	46→50	54	258/337/459	202	283	25	9	19%	10%	124	+3.1	256/339/456	200	277	25	6	18%	10%	124	+3.1	250/340/466	216	253	30	0	16%	10%	128	+1.1
✕Aubrey Huff 2011 · MLB	34	53→59	56→60	45	56	274/349/474	199	287	22	5	14%	10%	131	+3.6	249/320/399	150	274	16	6	15%	9%	104	+1.6	235/301/359	124	262	13	4	15%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Matt Joyce 2018 · MLB	33	45→52	59→60	43→50	60	240/342/458	218	267	27	5	22%	13%	126	+3.2	249/348/420	171	296	20	4	21%	13%	119	+2.7	250/355/382	132	307	15	1	22%	14%	114	+0.9

Bryce Harper

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps