George Lombard Jr.

SS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.320 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A+/ANYY	497	.231/.339/.334	5	39	47	—	.183/.263/.262
2025	20	AA/A+NYY	580	.235/.370/.381	9	35	80	—	.208/.315/.327
2026	21	AAA/AA2 orgs	352	.280/.408/.476	10	14	107	—	.245/.345/.400
2026	21	MLBNYY	166	.237/.288/.414	7	2	89	0.7
2027PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBNYY	76	.227/.315/.373	2	4	93	0.3
2028PROJ63% MLB	23	MLBNYY	364	.233/.320/.392	11	21	100	1.6
2029PROJ67% MLB	24	MLBNYY	413	.237/.324/.404	13	23	103	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.320First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$8M2031Arb-2$15M2032Arb-3$22M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Speed90

Barrel%50

xwOBA41

Avg EV24

Form.231/.297/.402 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .225/.311/.366

CompsAnthony Volpe (age 22) · Jordan Lawlar (age 22) · Masyn Winn (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .315 / .373

PA76

HR2

K%25

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO134

MLB%49%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

360.240

POWER

Barrel%

508.2

Avg EV

2487.1

SPEED

Sprint

9029.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%26%▼26% over 84 PA (60d) · proj 25%

BB%7%▼▼4% over 84 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.170▲.231 over 78 AB (60d) · proj .141

HR/BB5.5%▲8.8% over 57 BBE (60d) · proj 3.8%

BABIP.280·.231 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.231/.297/.402▲proj .225/.311/.366

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.320 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+2.3	$15M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$15M	+2.3	$14M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$22M	+2.2	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$26M		$68M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	41	33	9	1	0	0	8	10	0	1	2	273	415	303	718	30	391	24	20	344	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	17	12	5	1	0	0	5	2	0	3	0	417	588	500	1.088	83	500	12	29	494	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	131	115	26	8	0	0	14	26	2	9	4	226	321	296	616	70	292	20	11	289	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	366	310	72	17	2	5	47	88	7	30	4	232	346	348	695	116	306	24	13	319	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	469	391	84	24	4	8	64	124	10	24	6	215	340	358	698	143	289	26	14	318	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	111	82	27	8	1	1	23	22	5	11	2	329	500	488	988	159	433	20	21	442	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB	New York Yankees	—	166	152	36	4	1	7	10	44	1	2	1	237	288	414	703	178	282	27	6	306	89	-2	+0	+0	+6	+4	0.7
2026	21	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	262	209	56	16	1	6	45	57	5	10	5	268	409	440	849	172	336	22	17	380	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	90	77	24	8	0	4	12	19	0	4	3	312	404	571	976	260	364	21	13	420	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	166	152	36	4	1	7	10	44	1	2	1	237	288	414	703	178	282	27	6	306	93	-1	+0	+0	+6	+4	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	41	36	8	1	0	0	5	14	0	1	2	222	317	250	567	28	379	34	12	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	17	14	5	1	0	0	3	3	0	3	0	357	471	429	899	71	404	18	18	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	131	121	22	6	0	0	8	36	2	9	4	182	244	231	476	50	260	27	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	366	326	60	13	2	4	31	125	7	30	4	184	269	273	542	89	277	34	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	469	407	78	21	4	6	48	156	10	24	6	192	292	307	600	115	285	33	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	111	90	25	7	1	1	15	29	5	11	2	278	409	411	820	133	381	26	14	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	166	152	36	4	1	7	10	44	1	2	1	237	288	414	703	178	282	27	6	300	89	-2	+0	+0	+6	+4	0.7
2026	21	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	262	222	52	14	1	5	32	68	5	10	5	234	344	374	718	140	304	26	12	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	90	80	22	7	0	3	9	23	0	4	3	275	348	475	823	200	334	26	10	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	58	49	13	2	0	0	9	17	0	4	2	265	379	306	685	41	406	29	16	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	58	45	14	2	0	0	13	12	0	4	2	311	466	356	821	44	424	21	22	388	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	497	447	82	19	2	4	39	161	9	39	8	183	263	262	524	78	275	32	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	497	425	98	25	2	5	61	114	9	39	8	231	339	334	674	104	302	23	12	311	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	580	497	104	28	5	7	63	185	15	35	8	209	317	328	644	119	313	32	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	580	473	111	32	5	9	87	146	15	35	8	235	370	381	751	146	316	25	15	342	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	518	454	109	25	2	14	51	136	6	16	9	240	325	396	721	156	306	26	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	518	438	116	28	2	17	67	120	6	16	9	265	370	454	824	189	322	23	13	363	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	58	49	13	2	0	0	9	17	0	4	2	265	379	306	685	41	386	29	16	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	497	446	82	19	2	4	39	161	9	39	8	184	263	262	525	78	273	32	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	580	497	104	28	5	7	63	185	15	35	8	209	317	328	644	119	303	32	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	518	456	109	25	2	14	51	136	6	16	9	239	325	395	720	156	302	26	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	497	446	82	19	2	4	39	161	9	39	8	184	263	262	525	78	273	32	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	580	497	104	28	5	7	63	185	15	35	8	209	317	328	644	119	303	32	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	518	456	109	25	2	14	51	136	6	16	9	239	325	395	720	156	302	26	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	49%	628	552	125	27	3	15	62	156	9	35	6	225	314	366	680	141	283	25	10	306	93	-5	+5	+3	+7	+14	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	49%	76	67	15	3	0	2	8	19	1	4	1	227	315	373	687	146	283	25	11	309	93	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	63%	576	505	118	25	3	16	58	140	8	33	6	231	319	385	704	153	285	24	10	315	100	-0	+4	+3	+6	+12	2.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	67%	614	540	126	26	3	18	61	147	8	35	6	235	322	396	719	161	286	24	10	321	103	+2	+5	+4	+7	+13	3.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	614	540	128	26	3	19	61	146	8	34	6	237	324	402	726	165	287	24	10	324	105	+4	+4	+4	+7	+13	3.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	614	540	128	26	3	19	61	145	8	34	6	238	324	405	729	167	287	24	10	325	106	+4	+4	+4	+7	+13	3.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	606	533	127	26	3	19	60	144	8	33	6	237	323	402	725	165	287	24	10	323	105	+4	+4	+4	+6	+13	3.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	592	521	123	25	3	18	59	142	7	29	5	235	321	398	719	162	286	24	10	321	103	+2	+4	+3	+6	+13	2.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	67%	571	503	117	24	2	17	56	139	7	25	5	233	319	392	710	159	285	24	10	317	101	+1	+3	+2	+6	+12	2.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	66%	555	490	112	23	2	16	54	136	6	20	4	230	315	384	699	154	283	25	10	313	98	-1	+2	+2	+6	+12	2.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	536	473	107	22	2	15	52	134	6	14	3	226	310	375	685	148	280	25	10	307	94	-4	+2	+1	+6	+12	1.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	512	453	100	20	2	13	49	130	5	8	2	221	304	362	666	141	276	25	10	300	89	-7	+1	-0	+5	+11	1.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	476	423	92	18	2	12	45	124	5	4	2	214	297	347	644	132	272	26	9	291	83	-10	+0	-1	+5	+10	0.5
2039	34	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	419	373	77	15	1	9	39	112	4	0	1	206	288	328	616	122	265	27	9	279	75	-12	-0	-2	+4	+9	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	63%	364	320	75	15	2	11	36	88	5	21	4	233	320	392	712	159	285	24	10	319	100	-0	+3	+2	+4	+8	1.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	67%	413	364	85	17	2	13	41	99	5	23	4	237	324	404	728	168	286	24	10	325	103	+2	+3	+2	+4	+9	2.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	425	373	89	18	2	14	43	101	6	24	4	239	326	411	736	172	287	24	10	328	105	+3	+3	+3	+5	+9	2.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	430	378	90	18	2	14	43	102	6	24	4	240	326	413	739	174	287	24	10	329	106	+3	+3	+3	+5	+9	2.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	419	369	89	18	2	14	42	100	5	23	4	239	325	411	736	172	287	24	10	327	105	+3	+3	+3	+4	+9	2.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	406	358	85	17	2	13	40	97	5	20	4	237	323	406	729	169	286	24	10	325	103	+2	+2	+2	+4	+9	2.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	67%	381	335	79	16	2	12	38	92	5	17	3	235	320	400	720	165	285	24	10	321	101	+0	+2	+2	+4	+8	1.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	66%	365	322	74	15	1	11	36	90	4	13	3	232	317	392	709	160	283	25	10	317	98	-1	+1	+1	+4	+8	1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	349	308	70	14	1	10	34	87	4	9	2	228	312	382	694	154	280	25	10	311	94	-2	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	332	293	65	13	1	9	32	84	4	5	1	222	306	369	675	147	276	25	10	303	89	-4	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.7
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	307	272	58	11	1	8	29	80	3	2	1	216	298	353	652	138	272	26	9	294	83	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2039	34	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	252	225	47	9	1	6	23	67	2	0	1	208	289	334	623	127	265	27	9	282	75	-7	-0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4609	4069	942	185	20	142	447	1131	55	183	36	232	316	391	707	160	284	25	10	316	94	-11	+22	+16	+53	+100	18.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	133	26	3	20	63	160	8	26	5	232	317	392	709	160	284	25	10	316	94	-2	+3	+2	+7	+14	2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8493	7478	1695	357	39	220	832	2176	112	372	81	227	313	373	686	146	288	26	10	307	94	-19	+34	+24	+79	+152	27.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	130	27	3	17	64	167	9	28	6	227	315	374	689	147	288	26	10	307	94	-2	+3	+2	+7	+14	2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 262 PAwOBA .375 → .318 (−58)K% 21.8% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	12.44%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.88%
Singles /BIP	21.71%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.970	×1.050	20.57%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.970	×1.050	8.90%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.970	×1.050	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.95%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .375 → .318; ISO .172 → .141; BABIP .336 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 90 PAwOBA .414 → .355 (−59)K% 21.1% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.11%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.80%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.958	×1.050	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	13.79%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.958	×1.050	11.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.958	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .414 → .355; ISO .260 → .217; BABIP .364 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 469 PAwOBA .314 → .270 (−43)K% 26.4% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.44%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	33.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.65%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×1.050	10.27%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.90%
Singles /BIP	17.98%	÷0.969	×0.970	×0.979	×1.050	18.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.99%	÷0.953	×0.860	×0.979	×1.050	8.34%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷1.056	×0.950	×0.979	×1.050	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.00%	÷1.030	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.38%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .314 → .270; ISO .143 → .120; BABIP .289 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 111 PAwOBA .436 → .357 (−79)K% 19.8% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.82%	÷0.985	×1.310	—	—	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.72%	÷0.984	×0.600	—	×1.042	13.16%
HBP% /PA	4.50%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	3.61%
Singles /BIP	28.33%	÷0.991	×0.870	×0.999	×1.042	25.89%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.014	×0.780	×0.999	×1.042	10.67%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷0.975	×0.850	×0.999	×1.042	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷0.969	×0.880	—	×1.042	1.58%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .436 → .357; ISO .159 → .142; BABIP .433 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 366 PAwOBA .312 → .245 (−67)K% 24.0% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.04%	÷0.959	×1.360	—	—	34.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.57%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.045	8.54%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.56%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.035	×0.920	×1.001	×1.045	20.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.66%	÷1.028	×0.830	×1.001	×1.045	6.47%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷0.971	×0.910	×1.001	×1.045	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	2.25%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .312 → .245; ISO .116 → .092; BABIP .306 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 131 PAwOBA .282 → .217 (−64)K% 19.8% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.85%	÷0.946	×1.310	—	—	27.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.69%	÷1.099	×0.600	—	×1.050	6.13%
HBP% /PA	1.53%	—	×0.770	—	×1.050	1.23%
Singles /BIP	20.22%	÷1.025	×0.870	×1.044	×1.050	18.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.99%	÷1.070	×0.780	×1.044	×1.050	7.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.044	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.032	×0.880	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .282 → .217; ISO .070 → .053; BABIP .292 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 41 PAwOBA .337 → .274 (−62)K% 24.4% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.39%	÷0.975	×1.360	—	—	34.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.51%	÷1.079	×0.690	—	×1.050	13.10%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.78%	÷0.987	×0.920	—	×1.050	34.03%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.972	×0.830	—	×1.050	3.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .337 → .274; ISO .030 → .026; BABIP .391 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 17 PAwOBA .483 → .370 (−113)K% 11.8% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷0.951	×1.440	—	—	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	29.41%	÷0.995	×0.620	—	×1.022	18.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.994	×0.820	—	×1.022	33.75%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.106	×0.720	—	×1.022	6.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.383	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .483 → .370; ISO .083 → .060; BABIP .500 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jose Valentin'92-'07 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,317 PA	9.5	6,317	249	136	233*	309*	433*	+53	+78	31.1	27.3
/162	664	26	14	+5.6	+8.2	3.3	pk7: 24
#2Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#3Phil Garner'73-'88 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,860 PA	10.3	6,860	109	225	256*	321*	420*	+25	+14	26.6	24.1
/162	664	11	22	+2.5	+1.3	2.6	pk7: 22
#4Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.1	4,685	137	188	231	312	387	+48	+30	18.9	16.6
/162	664	19	27	+6.9	+4.3	2.7	pk7: 14
#5Freddie Patek'68-'81 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,246 PA	9.4	6,246	41	385	242*	311*	356*	+66	-5	14.7	15.3
/162	664	4	41	+7.0	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
George Lombard Jr. (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	223/311/363	139	283	4	9	25%	10%	93	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	44→50	53→55	60→55	49	227/311/414	187	277	19	29	25%	9%	104	+1.6	222/287/376	154	278	16	24	25%	8%	86	+0.3	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Jordan Lawlar 2024 · MLB	22	47→55	47→50	59→60	47	231/310/369	138	309	14	28	28%	8%	94	+0.9	240/311/398	158	324	15	25	29%	8%	100	+1.3	247/313/444	196	333	20	28	30%	7%	109	+1.0
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
●CJ Abrams 2024 · MLB	23	50→53	47→60	62→60	43	250/298/393	143	290	14	34	19%	4%	94	+0.9	251/312/436	185	291	20	30	21%	6%	109	+2.0	252/319/452	200	292	23	30	22%	7%	117	+2.7
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Kyren Paris 2024 · MLB	22	47→49	46→45	60	47	216/309/349	132	337	13	32	36%	10%	89	+0.5	199/284/330	131	312	14	28	37%	10%	76	-0.4	186/273/317	131	291	14	29	38%	10%	68	-0.6
●Jakob Marsee 2024 · AA	23	47→49	47→45	58→60	58	234/337/363	130	285	15	28	22%	12%	103	+1.5	219/318/347	128	277	12	34	24%	11%	92	+0.7	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	48→54	48→50	57→60	42	240/294/380	140	304	17	31	27%	6%	90	+0.6	219/285/342	123	278	15	25	26%	7%	78	-0.3	204/275/315	112	259	14	24	26%	7%	67	-0.7
●B.J. Upton 2007 · MLB	22	54→60	44→60	59→60	50	259/328/382	123	328	11	37	23%	9%	102	+1.5	266/350/413	147	342	15	33	24%	11%	118	+2.6	264/354/415	151	338	15	35	24%	12%	120	+2.9
✕Matt Shaw 2024 · AA	22	52→48	49→55	59→55	41	261/297/413	152	307	16	22	21%	4%	98	+1.2	244/315/408	164	287	19	23	21%	8%	104	+1.6	237/316/404	167	275	19	23	21%	9%	102	+1.1
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	48→50	55→60	44	251/318/402	152	304	14	26	22%	6%	104	+1.6	228/300/350	122	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/353/387	104	351	6	51	19%	6%	113	+0.7
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	52→58	41→45	57→60	48	250/309/356	106	315	8	27	22%	8%	88	+0.5	254/311/364	110	310	8	26	19%	8%	92	+0.7	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
✕José Rodríguez 2023 · AA	22	52→54	46→50	58→55	44	257/295/390	132	298	12	28	18%	5%	91	+0.7	238/272/362	124	290	14	26	22%	4%	76	-0.4	233/262/350	117	285	14	27	24%	3%	68	-0.5
✕Delino DeShields 2016 · MLB	23	51→56	41→45	61→65	50	238/316/346	107	310	6	33	24%	9%	89	+0.5	233/311/325	92	311	7	31	25%	10%	83	+0.1	231/315/314	82	304	6	36	24%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	51→53	48→50	57→55	49	254/316/397	143	308	15	23	22%	8%	101	+1.4	234/291/348	114	301	11	21	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Noelvi Marte 2024 · MLB	22	50→55	48→50	52→55	47	247/311/388	140	308	15	19	24%	8%	98	+1.2	242/287/373	131	305	14	18	25%	5%	85	+0.2	241/280/371	130	301	15	19	24%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	48→54	48→55	52→55	45	238/301/386	148	304	14	21	26%	7%	94	+0.9	222/284/374	152	291	16	17	28%	7%	85	+0.2	202/265/351	149	268	17	17	30%	7%	70	-0.4
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	52→51	51→60	56→50	47	259/321/431	172	315	18	23	23%	7%	112	+2.2	258/315/457	199	302	27	14	24%	7%	116	+2.5	245/300/432	188	279	27	12	23%	7%	105	+1.0
●Chris Young 2006 · AA	22	46→48	56→60	55	47	238/309/441	203	302	22	23	28%	9%	110	+2.1	236/301/437	201	274	23	20	23%	8%	106	+1.8	238/319/427	189	288	21	17	24%	10%	111	+2.3
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2

George Lombard Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps