Jordan Lawlar — OGILVIE

Jordan LawlarSS Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 0.424 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 183 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .298 / .387

PA183

HR5

SB11

K%27

BB%8

BABIP282

ISO166

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 53 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT53

Whiff%

639.7%

xwOBA

140.266

POWER56

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

1084.8

Bat Spd

4771.0

EYE60

Chase%

9019.9%

SPEED64

Sprint

8428.8

DEFENSE57

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025 · 74 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

260

232

◀L

ISO

125

088

◀◀L

BABIP

261

333

▶▶R

27.0%

43.2%

◀◀L

BB%

10.8%

5.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.424 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$1.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$10M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$46M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	20	A	5 teams	—	508	453	114	16	6	15	40	167	11	43	7	252	327	413	740	161	360	33	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	5 teams	—	508	425	128	19	8	18	68	129	11	43	7	301	411	511	921	209	390	25	13	404	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	3 teams	—	524	460	90	18	3	10	46	142	14	37	6	196	288	313	602	117	256	27	9	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	3 teams	—	524	448	120	23	4	20	58	112	14	37	6	268	369	471	840	203	312	21	11	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	3 teams	—	203	176	41	9	2	2	16	64	5	15	3	233	315	341	656	108	339	32	8	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	3 teams	—	203	171	48	8	1	5	21	53	5	15	3	281	376	427	803	146	364	26	10	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	3 teams	—	420	372	92	25	6	12	37	126	7	23	3	247	327	444	770	196	339	30	9	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	3 teams	—	420	367	100	31	5	11	42	114	7	23	3	272	358	474	832	202	365	27	10	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	ARI	—	67	59	16	4	1	1	4	19	3	4	0	271	348	424	772	153	375	28	6	329	110	+1	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.3
YTD	24	MLB	ARI	—	67	58	16	4	1	1	5	17	3	4	0	276	364	431	795	155	366	25	7	352	127	+2	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.5
ROS	24	MLB	ARI	100%	183	163	36	8	2	5	15	49	3	11	2	221	298	387	685	166	279	27	8	306	92	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
ROS	24	MLB	ARI	100%	183	163	36	8	2	5	15	49	3	11	2	221	298	387	685	166	282	27	8	295	84	-3	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.3
FULL	24	MLB	ARI	—	250	222	52	12	3	6	19	68	6	15	2	234	312	396	708	162	307	27	8	305	91	-2	+2	-1	-0	+7	0.6
TOT	24	MLB	ARI	—	250	222	52	12	3	6	19	68	6	15	2	234	312	396	708	162	307	27	8	312	97	-1	+2	-1	-0	+7	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	ARI	92%	420	375	84	17	4	13	35	111	7	26	4	224	302	395	697	171	279	26	8	308	94	-3	+4	-3	+1	+12	1.1
2028	26	MLB	ARI	92%	441	393	89	18	4	14	38	116	7	27	4	226	306	399	705	173	281	26	9	313	98	-1	+4	-3	+2	+12	1.4
2029	27	MLB	ARI	92%	442	394	89	18	4	14	38	115	7	27	4	226	305	398	704	173	281	26	9	314	98	-1	+4	-3	+2	+13	1.4
2030	28	MLB	ARI	92%	439	391	88	18	3	14	38	115	7	26	4	225	305	394	699	169	281	26	9	313	98	-1	+4	-4	+2	+12	1.3
2031	29	MLB	ARI	92%	429	381	86	18	3	13	38	113	7	23	3	226	308	391	699	165	281	26	9	312	97	-2	+3	-5	+2	+12	1.1
2032	30	MLB	ARI	92%	420	373	83	17	3	13	37	112	7	21	3	223	305	389	693	166	280	27	9	309	95	-2	+3	-5	+1	+12	0.9
2033	31	MLB	ARI	92%	405	360	79	16	3	12	36	109	6	17	2	219	301	381	682	161	278	27	9	305	92	-4	+3	-6	+1	+11	0.6
2034	32	MLB	ARI	92%	386	343	74	15	3	11	34	105	6	14	2	216	298	373	671	157	274	27	9	300	88	-5	+2	-6	+1	+11	0.3
2035	33	MLB	ARI	92%	356	317	67	13	3	10	31	99	5	10	1	211	292	366	658	155	270	28	9	293	83	-7	+2	-7	+1	+10	-0.1
2027	25	MLB	ARI	92%	386	343	77	16	3	12	33	102	7	24	3	224	305	394	699	169	281	26	9	299	87	-6	+4	-3	+1	+11	0.7
2028	26	MLB	ARI	92%	406	361	82	17	3	13	35	106	7	25	4	227	308	399	707	172	283	26	9	304	91	-4	+3	-3	+1	+12	0.9
2029	27	MLB	ARI	92%	407	362	82	17	3	13	35	106	7	25	4	227	307	398	705	171	284	26	9	305	92	-4	+3	-3	+1	+12	1.0
2030	28	MLB	ARI	92%	404	360	82	17	3	13	35	106	6	24	3	228	307	400	707	172	284	26	9	304	91	-4	+4	-4	+1	+11	0.9
2031	29	MLB	ARI	92%	395	351	80	16	3	13	35	104	6	21	3	228	309	402	710	174	283	26	9	303	90	-5	+3	-4	+1	+11	0.7
2032	30	MLB	ARI	92%	386	343	77	16	3	12	34	103	6	19	3	224	305	394	699	169	282	27	9	300	88	-5	+3	-5	+1	+11	0.5
2033	31	MLB	ARI	92%	373	331	73	15	3	11	33	100	6	16	2	221	303	384	686	163	280	27	9	297	85	-6	+2	-5	+1	+11	0.3
2034	32	MLB	ARI	92%	355	316	69	14	3	10	31	97	5	13	2	218	298	377	675	158	277	27	9	291	81	-8	+2	-6	+1	+10	-0.0
2035	33	MLB	ARI	92%	328	291	61	12	2	9	29	91	5	9	1	210	292	357	650	148	273	28	9	285	76	-9	+1	-6	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3731	3318	735	155	28	111	323	1001	60	190	28	222	302	385	688	164	280	27	9	297	85	-62	+27	-42	+20	+106	5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	128	27	5	19	56	174	10	33	5	221	301	384	685	163	281	27	9	297	85	-11	+5	-7	+3	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	5576	4951	1112	226	49	158	479	1543	99	320	48	225	306	386	691	161	290	28	9	305	92	-52	+45	-45	+24	+158	13.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	129	26	6	18	56	180	12	37	6	224	306	383	689	159	290	28	9	305	92	-6	+5	-5	+3	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	20	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	97	85	18	0	0	4	10	28	1	2	1	212	302	353	655	141	259	29	10	296	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2022	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	130	111	32	8	2	3	16	33	2	13	1	288	388	477	865	189	382	25	12	381	150	+7	+2	—	—	+4	1.3
2022	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	208	174	61	9	4	9	27	48	5	24	4	351	451	603	1.055	253	437	23	13	455	206	+25	+3	—	—	+6	3.5
2022	20	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	24	19	7	1	1	0	4	6	1	0	0	368	500	526	1.026	158	538	25	17	456	207	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	49	36	10	1	1	2	11	14	2	4	1	278	469	528	997	250	400	29	22	442	196	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	21	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	34	31	4	0	0	0	2	11	1	1	1	129	206	129	335		200	32	6	169	-12	-4	-0	+2	+6	+1	0.4
2023	21	AAA	Reno Aces	—	80	67	24	0	1	5	9	12	2	3	1	358	449	612	1.061	254	365	15	11	451	203	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2023	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	410	350	92	23	3	15	47	89	11	33	4	263	368	474	842	211	310	22	11	372	143	+20	+5	—	—	+12	3.7
2024	22	AAA	Reno Aces	—	58	49	18	3	1	2	7	17	0	1	2	367	446	592	1.038	224	516	29	12	437	193	+6	-1	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	22	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	37	29	8	3	0	0	5	4	2	5	0	276	417	379	796	103	308	11	14	360	134	+1	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	22	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	108	93	22	2	0	3	9	32	3	9	1	237	324	355	679	118	311	30	8	303	90	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	74	66	12	7	0	0	6	26	1	2	0	182	260	288	548	106	293	35	8	249	49	-4	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	300	259	81	22	5	11	36	70	3	20	3	313	403	564	966	251	393	23	12	418	178	+26	+3	—	—	+8	3.9
2025	23	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	46	42	7	2	0	0	0	18	3	1	0	167	222	214	437	48	280	39	0	202	13	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	108	97	16	7	0	0	8	37	2	3	1	165	243	237	480	72	262	34	7	224	30	-9	+0	-2	+7	+3	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	3,763	113	193	222	299	387	+38	-5	13.7	12.7
	/162	664	20	34	222	299	387	+6.7	-1.0	2.4	pk7: 12
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jordan Lawlar (OGILVIE)	24	45→53	51→56	66→64	60	234/312/396	162	307	6	15	27%	8%	97	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2019 · MLB	24	48→54	54→60	67→65	37	246/277/433	188	311	21	41	28%	4%	95	+1.4	249/284/422	173	335	18	48	30%	5%	95	+1.4	247/282/416	170	337	17	58	31%	4%	90	+0.5
●Desmond Jennings 2012 · MLB	25	51→59	47→50	62→60	51	250/323/394	144	294	14	32	20%	8%	104	+2.0	243/317/393	150	290	15	25	20%	9%	102	+1.8	240/316/387	148	285	14	23	20%	9%	97	+1.5
●Esteury Ruiz 2023 · MLB	24	53→59	52→50	66→70	46	263/340/433	170	325	19	56	24%	7%	122	+3.3	260/327/400	140	322	14	61	23%	6%	108	+2.3	258/342/431	173	329	19	69	25%	9%	118	+1.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	45→52	50	57→60	41	234/284/381	148	293	18	31	27%	5%	85	+0.7	215/279/345	130	270	16	25	26%	6%	73	-0.1	206/267/320	115	269	15	25	28%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Delino DeShields 2017 · MLB	24	48→55	42→45	57→65	49	231/305/336	105	307	8	31	26%	9%	81	+0.4	234/313/327	93	309	7	32	24%	10%	82	+0.5	233/316/318	85	306	6	36	24%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Vidal Bruján 2022 · MLB	24	46→56	44→45	61→65	48	226/280/344	117	264	11	41	19%	7%	72	-0.2	222/284/336	114	269	11	30	21%	7%	72	-0.2	214/288/314	100	265	7	24	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Brent Lillibridge 2008 · AAA	24	50→55	44→50	59→60	44	245/303/366	121	314	11	31	25%	7%	88	+0.9	217/274/319	102	289	8	29	26%	6%	63	-0.8	223/282/355	132	300	17	36	30%	6%	75	+0.0
●Jake McCarthy 2023 · MLB	26	51→59	49→50	62→60	46	251/315/408	156	318	15	33	25%	7%	105	+2.1	257/320/382	125	308	11	32	19%	7%	99	+1.7	263/323/401	137	306	11	27	17%	6%	102	+1.3
✕Leo German 2017 · AAA	24	49→58	43→45	61→55	39	238/281/356	118	304	10	28	25%	4%	76	+0.1	265/300/351	86	350	7	22	25%	4%	82	+0.5	285/319/366	81	368	7	19	24%	4%	90	+0.7
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	46→45	55→70	46	221/294/354	133	287	14	29	27%	8%	82	+0.5	225/330/346	121	289	12	41	24%	11%	96	+1.5	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Nate Eaton 2023 · MLB	26	46→49	46→50	60	44	226/292/355	129	295	13	29	27%	7%	82	+0.5	218/266/356	138	283	16	27	28%	5%	70	-0.3	219/272/357	138	284	14	27	27%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	51→54	46→55	55→60	45	253/304/385	132	302	13	27	21%	6%	94	+1.3	229/291/369	140	269	14	21	20%	7%	85	+0.7	226/292/376	150	266	15	26	21%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	49→51	48→50	59→60	47	242/311/383	141	320	15	32	28%	9%	96	+1.5	231/302/359	128	317	14	30	30%	9%	86	+0.8	227/297/360	133	323	13	24	32%	9%	81	+0.3
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	54→60	55→50	45	256/314/439	183	307	21	23	24%	7%	112	+2.6	258/314/460	202	301	28	14	24%	7%	118	+3.0	245/301/434	189	280	27	12	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕John Raynor 2009 · AA	25	54→57	46→45	62→60	46	257/326/398	141	345	13	34	28%	8%	106	+2.2	228/287/328	100	315	8	20	28%	7%	72	-0.2	213/270/288	75	297	6	17	29%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Bubba Thompson 2023 · MLB	25	52→56	46→50	66→65	36	251/288/382	131	346	13	44	31%	4%	85	+0.7	225/268/324	99	324	9	38	32%	5%	63	-0.9	209/254/289	80	304	6	41	32%	5%	42	-1.2