Jordan Lawlar

LF Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 1.424 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AAA/ROK/INTL2 orgs203.281/.376/.42751596—.267/.348/.388
202523AAA/INTL2 orgs346.292/.379/.5151121115—.283/.352/.494
202523MLBARI74.182/.260/.2880245-0.5
202624AAA/AAARI60.232/.271/.5715273—.193/.220/.471
202624MLBARI136.258/.319/.460661160.5
2027PROJ25MLBARI153.237/.305/.42558990.3
2028PROJ92% MLB26MLBARI221.237/.305/.4268121000.5
2029PROJ92% MLB27MLBARI246.236/.304/.423813990.5
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.424First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2026
Speed81
Bat Spd47
Barrel%28
xwOBA24
Avg EV16
Form.229/.285/.429 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .230/.297/.415
CompsSamad Taylor (age 25) · Rickie Weeks Jr. (age 25) · Anthony Volpe (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†99
AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .305 / .425
PA153
HR5
SB8
K%27
BB%7
BABIP297
ISO188
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: +1.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -1.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.80+0.8WAR
0.00.51.00.80.50.50.40.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
100.216
POWER
Barrel%
285.4
Avg EV
1686.5
Bat Spd
4771.0
SPEED
Sprint
8128.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%29%▼31% over 62 PA (60d) · proj 27%
BB%6%▼3% over 62 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.200▲.241 over 58 AB (60d) · proj .185
HR/BB6.2%·7.7% over 39 BBE (60d) · proj 5.7%
BABIP.286·.306 over 36 BIP (60d) · proj .285
SLASH.229/.285/.429·proj .230/.297/.415
Platoon Splits2025 · 74 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
37
37
—
wRC+
62
43
◀◀L
wOBA
260
232
◀L
ISO
125
088
◀◀L
BABIP
261
333
▶▶R
K%
27.0%
43.2%
◀◀L
BB%
10.8%
5.4%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2023
Service   1.424 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Arb-1$2M+0.5$2M+$0.3M
2030Arb-2$3M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$3M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $3M $9M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202220 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 9785 18004 10281 21 212302353655 141259 2910 296 47 — — — — — —
202220 A+Hillsboro Hops — 130111 32823 16332 131 288388477865 189382 2512 381 102 — — — — — —
202220 AVisalia Rawhide — 208174 61949 27485 244 3514516031.055 253437 2313 455 141 — — — — — —
202220 ROKACL D-backs Red — 2419 7110 461 00 3685005261.026 158538 2517 456 99 — — — — — —
202220 INTLSalt River Rafters — 4936 10112 11142 41 278469528997 250400 2922 442 185 — — — — — —
202321 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 3431 4000 2111 11 129206129335 200 326 169 0 -4 -0 +2 +6 +1 0.4
202321 AAAReno Aces — 8067 24015 9122 31 3584496121.061 254365 1511 451 146 — — — — — —
202321 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 410350 9223315 478911 334 263368474842 211310 2211 372 75 — — — — — —
202422 AAAReno Aces — 5849 18312 7170 12 3674465921.038 224516 2912 437 127 — — — — — —
202422 ROKACL D-backs — 3729 8300 542 50 276417379796 103308 1114 360 63 — — — — — —
202422 INTLTigres del Licey — 10893 22203 9323 91 237324355679 118311 308 303 91 — — — — — —
202523 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 7466 12700 6261 20 182260288548 106293 358 249 45 -5 +0 -4 +1 +2 -0.5
202523 AAAReno Aces — 300259 8122511 36703 203 313403564966 251393 2312 418 129 — — — — — —
202523 INTLTigres del Licey — 4642 7200 0183 10 167222214437 48280 390 202 23 — — — — — —
202624 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 136124 32516 5396 61 258319460778 202329 294 342 116 +3 +1 +0 -2 +3 0.5
202624 AAAReno Aces — 2320 4210 270 00 200273400673 200286 309 282 61 — — — — — —
202624 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 3736 9005 1130 20 250270667937 417222 353 398 80 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 244221 481216 13768 92 217285362647 145300 315 290 82 -5 +1 -2 +5 +5 0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202220 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 9789 16003 6341 21 180240281520 101245 356 238 47 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 130115 29623 12432 131 252333417751 165355 339 319 102 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 208183 56847 18655 244 306383508892 202419 319 376 141 — — — — — —
202220 ROK MLEACL D-backs Red — 2420 6110 391 00 300417450867 150429 3812 315 99 — — — — — —
202321 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 3431 4000 2111 11 129206129335 200 326 169 0 -4 -0 +2 +6 +1 0.4
202321 AAA MLEReno Aces — 8070 23014 6152 31 329397529926 200336 198 384 146 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 410360 721927 3710811 334 200294322616 122262 269 279 75 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEReno Aces — 5851 16311 5210 12 314375471846 157456 369 356 127 — — — — — —
202422 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 3731 6200 362 50 194306258564 65232 168 262 63 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 7466 11600 6261 20 167247258504 91293 358 235 45 -5 +0 -4 +1 +2 -0.5
202523 AAA MLEReno Aces — 300269 761869 26823 203 283352494847 212370 279 359 129 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 136124 31416 5396 61 250311444755 194329 294 339 116 +3 +1 +0 -2 +3 0.5
202624 AAA MLEReno Aces — 2321 4210 180 00 190227381608 190267 354 258 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 3736 7004 1160 20 194216528744 333197 433 287 80 — — — — — —
202220 A MLE5 teams — 508450 11616714 4316611 437 258337418755 160372 338 328 108 — — — — — —
202220 A RAW5 teams — 508425 12819818 6812911 437 301411511921 209390 2513 404 108 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLE3 teams — 524461 9819311 4513414 376 213302338640 126272 269 288 81 — — — — — —
202321 AA RAW3 teams — 524448 12023420 5811214 376 268369471840 203312 2111 371 81 — — — — — —
202422 INTL MLE3 teams — 203175 471023 17585 153 269350400750 131370 298 319 102 — — — — — —
202422 INTL RAW3 teams — 203171 48815 21535 153 281376427803 146364 2610 352 102 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 420373 9627610 361217 233 257334442776 185352 299 335 113 — — — — — —
202523 AAA RAW3 teams — 420367 10031511 421147 233 272358474832 202365 2710 365 113 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE3 teams — 196181 426210 7636 81 232284453737 221294 324 320 103 +1 +1 +0 -2 +4 0.4
202624 MLB RAW3 teams — 196180 457211 8596 81 250304494799 244306 304 346 103 +1 +1 +0 -2 +4 0.4
202220 A MLE5 teams — 508449 11616714 4316611 437 258337419756 160365 338 328 108 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLE3 teams — 524460 9819311 4513414 376 213302339641 126269 269 288 81 — — — — — —
202422 INTL MLE3 teams — 203179 471023 17585 153 263350391741 128369 298 319 102 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 420374 9627610 361217 233 257334441775 184355 299 335 113 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE3 teams — 196181 426210 7636 81 232284453737 221297 324 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 INTL MLE3 teams — 203179 471023 17585 153 263350391741 128369 298 319 102 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 420374 9627610 361217 233 257334441775 184355 299 335 113 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE3 teams — 196181 426210 7636 81 232284453737 221297 324 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEARI 100% 246222 511029 18674 132 230299415714 185285 277 315 99 -0 +2 +1 -3 +5 0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXARI 100% 153138 33725 11423 81 237305425730 188297 277 321 99 -0 +1 +1 -2 +3 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEARI 92% 240217 501029 17664 122 231299416716 186285 287 316 100 -0 +2 +1 -3 +5 0.5
202927 MLB MLEARI 92% 267242 5611210 19734 143 230299414712 184285 277 314 99 -0 +2 +1 -3 +6 0.5
203028 MLB MLEARI 92% 283255 5711210 21785 132 228297409706 181284 287 312 97 -1 +2 +0 -3 +6 0.4
203129 MLB MLEARI 92% 280254 5711210 20784 112 226294403697 178283 287 308 95 -2 +1 -0 -3 +6 0.2
203230 MLB MLEARI 92% 279253 561129 20794 92 223291396687 173281 287 304 92 -3 +1 -1 -3 +6 0.0
203331 MLB MLEARI 92% 261237 521029 18754 61 219286387673 168279 297 298 88 -4 +1 -2 -3 +6 -0.2
203432 MLB MLEARI 92% 240218 46927 17703 31 214280375655 161275 297 291 83 -5 +0 -3 -3 +5 -0.5
202826 MLB CTXARI 92% 221199 471028 16604 122 237305426731 189297 277 322 100 -0 +2 +1 -2 +5 0.5
202927 MLB CTXARI 92% 246222 521138 18684 132 236304423728 188297 287 320 99 -0 +2 +1 -3 +5 0.5
203028 MLB CTXARI 92% 260235 561239 19724 122 234302419721 185296 287 318 97 -1 +2 +0 -3 +6 0.4
203129 MLB CTXARI 92% 258233 551239 19724 102 232300413713 181295 287 314 95 -2 +1 -0 -3 +6 0.2
203230 MLB CTXARI 92% 257233 531138 18734 92 229296406702 177293 287 310 92 -2 +1 -1 -3 +6 0.0
203331 MLB CTXARI 92% 240217 481027 17694 61 225292396688 171290 297 304 88 -3 +1 -2 -3 +5 -0.2
203432 MLB CTXARI 92% 221201 44927 15643 31 220286384670 164286 297 297 83 -4 +0 -2 -2 +5 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19471761 403871962 13555435 7414 229297405702 177296 287 310 97 -18 +9 -6 -13 +42 1.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650588 13429621 4518512 255 228297405701 177294 287 310 97 -6 +3 -2 -4 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 38543454 80515735118 291110374 20234 233306401708 168304 298 311 97 -20 +11 -5 -16 +49 1.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 13526620 4918612 346 232304400704 168302 298 311 97 -6 +3 -2 -5 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 37 PAwOBA .385 → .287 (−98)K% 35.1% → 42.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.14%÷1.000×1.220——42.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.70%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0121.91%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷1.000×0.920—×1.01216.19%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.840—×1.0120.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP21.74%÷1.000×0.800—×1.01217.60%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .385 → .287; ISO .417 → .300; BABIP .222 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 23 PAwOBA .287 → .258 (−29)K% 30.4% → 36.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.43%÷1.000×1.200——36.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0486.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.930—×1.0487.50%
Doubles /BIP15.38%÷1.000×0.830—×1.04813.38%
Triples /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0487.82%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0480.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .287 → .258; ISO .200 → .191; BABIP .286 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 300 PAwOBA .406 → .359 (−47)K% 23.3% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.33%÷1.025×1.200——27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.67%÷0.964×0.690—×1.0508.77%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.99%
Singles /BIP22.75%÷0.994×0.930×1.011×1.05022.59%
Doubles /BIP11.64%÷1.069×0.830×1.011×1.0509.60%
Triples /BIP2.65%÷0.902×0.970×1.011×1.0503.02%
Home runs /BIP5.82%÷0.904×0.700—×1.0504.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .406 → .359; ISO .251 → .217; BABIP .393 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 58 PAwOBA .433 → .356 (−77)K% 29.3% → 36.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.31%÷0.964×1.200——36.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.07%÷1.012×0.690—×1.0508.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP37.50%÷1.076×0.930—×1.05034.04%
Doubles /BIP9.38%÷1.025×0.830—×1.0507.97%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷1.017×0.970—×1.0503.13%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷1.124×0.700—×1.0504.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .433 → .356; ISO .224 → .172; BABIP .516 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 37 PAwOBA .362 → .262 (−100)K% 10.8% → 16.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.81%÷0.965×1.440——16.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.51%÷1.069×0.620—×0.9757.64%
HBP% /PA5.41%—×0.720—×0.9753.79%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.009×0.820—×0.97515.85%
Doubles /BIP12.00%÷1.031×0.720—×0.9758.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.984×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.875×0.780—×0.9750.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 97, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .262; ISO .103 → .076; BABIP .308 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 410 PAwOBA .364 → .279 (−85)K% 21.7% → 26.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.71%÷1.003×1.220——26.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.46%÷0.922×0.700—×1.0509.14%
HBP% /PA2.68%—×0.870—×1.0502.45%
Singles /BIP19.54%÷1.054×0.920×0.962×1.05017.23%
Doubles /BIP8.81%÷1.008×0.840×0.962×1.0507.42%
Triples /BIP1.15%÷1.124×0.940×0.962×1.0500.97%
Home runs /BIP5.75%÷1.637×0.800—×1.0502.95%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .364 → .279; ISO .211 → .132; BABIP .310 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 80 PAwOBA .450 → .384 (−65)K% 15.0% → 18.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷0.951×1.200——18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.25%÷1.096×0.690—×1.0507.44%
HBP% /PA2.50%—×0.940—×1.0502.47%
Singles /BIP32.73%÷1.026×0.930×0.992×1.05030.92%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.059×0.830×0.992×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP1.82%÷1.150×0.970×0.992×1.0501.60%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷1.012×0.700—×1.0506.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .450 → .384; ISO .254 → .196; BABIP .365 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 208 PAwOBA .446 → .376 (−70)K% 23.1% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷1.001×1.360——31.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.023×0.690—×1.0308.69%
HBP% /PA2.40%—×0.780—×1.0301.93%
Singles /BIP30.95%÷0.997×0.920×1.035×1.03030.47%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.942×0.830×1.035×1.0306.71%
Triples /BIP3.17%÷1.000×0.910×1.035×1.0303.08%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷1.062×0.800—×1.0305.54%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .446 → .376; ISO .253 → .205; BABIP .437 → .419. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .