Royce Lewis

3B Minnesota Twins
Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 4.809 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAAMIN31.172/.226/.241010—.167/.194/.233
202425MLBMIN325.233/.300/.4521601031.1
202526AAAMIN33.129/.156/.16100-25—.129/.156/.161
202526MLBMIN403.237/.284/.3881312880.8
202627AAAMIN67.333/.403/.900100153—.242/.299/.629
202627MLBMIN509.227/.290/.3801516860.5
2027PROJ28MLBMIN430.236/.294/.4181710980.9
2028PROJ29MLBMIN504.233/.291/.4111910950.8
2029PROJ30MLBMIN489.230/.287/.403187920.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.809First FA2029
2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd65
Barrel%63
Speed55
Avg EV49
xwOBA48
Form.220/.267/.372 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .235/.292/.417
CompsJohn Mayberry Jr. (age 28) · Jayson Nix (age 28) · David Bote (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9998vR 92
AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .294 / .418
PA430
HR17
SB10
K%23
BB%7
BABIP272
ISO185
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +9.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +1.20+1.2WAR
0.00.81.71.20.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
350.239
POWER50
Barrel%
6310.2
Avg EV
4989.1
Bat Spd
6572.9
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
5527.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%27%▼▼29% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 23%
BB%6%▼4% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.152▼.104 over 96 AB (60d) · proj .181
HR/BB4.6%▼2.9% over 68 BBE (60d) · proj 5.6%
BABIP.271·.258 over 66 BIP (60d) · proj .272
SLASH.220/.267/.372▼▼proj .235/.292/.417
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 789 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
243
546
—
wRC+
94
96
—
wOBA
308
310
—
ISO
158
196
▶▶R
BABIP
266
258
—
K%
20.2%
22.5%
◀L
BB%
8.6%
7.0%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.809 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$4M+1.2$10M+$6M
2028Arb-3$6M+0.8$3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $4M $13M +$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201718 ACedar Rapids Kernels — 8071 21211 6162 31 296367394761 99364 208 341 72 — — — — — —
201718 ROKGCL Twins — 159133 36623 19177 152 271390414803 143292 1112 366 71 — — — — — —
201819 A+Fort Myers Miracle — 208188 48635 19351 64 255327399726 144291 179 326 77 — — — — — —
201819 ACedar Rapids Kernels — 327295 932309 24493 224 315373485857 169349 157 374 90 — — — — — —
201920 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 148134 31912 11331 62 231295358653 127287 227 290 49 — — — — — —
201920 A+Fort Myers Miracle — 418383 9117310 27903 168 238293376669 138281 226 296 43 — — — — — —
201920 INTLSalt River Rafters — 9585 30903 9220 51 353415565980 212443 239 425 174 — — — — — —
202223 MLBMinnesota Twins — 4140 12402 150 00 300317550867 250303 122 376 140 +2 +0 +1 +2 +1 0.6
202223 AAASt. Paul Saints — 153131 411215 18323 122 313408534942 221379 2112 412 118 — — — — — —
202324 MLBMinnesota Twins — 239217 677015 20552 61 309372548921 240354 238 403 158 +17 +1 +1 +1 +5 2.5
202324 AAASt. Paul Saints — 5145 16106 5130 31 3564207781.198 422370 2510 498 152 — — — — — —
202425 MLBMinnesota Twins — 325292 6816016 28740 00 233300452752 219251 239 326 103 +1 +0 +1 +1 +7 1.1
202425 AAASt. Paul Saints — 3129 5200 2110 10 172226241467 69278 356 215 0 — — — — — —
202526 MLBMinnesota Twins — 403376 8918013 25800 122 237284388673 152267 206 298 88 -6 +2 +2 +2 +9 0.8
202526 AAASt. Paul Saints — 3331 4100 180 00 129156161318 32167 243 142 -25 — — — — — —
202627 MLBMinnesota Twins — 509463 10524115 381303 161 227290380670 153279 267 297 86 -8 +3 -3 +2 +11 0.5
202627 AAASt. Paul Saints — 6760 204010 5132 00 3334039001.303 567270 197 542 153 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 15171388 34169161 1123445 344 246304429733 183281 237 322 104 +8 +5 +2 +8 +33 5.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201718 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 8072 17111 5222 31 236304319623 83322 286 275 72 — — — — — —
201718 ROK MLEGCL Twins — 159140 28412 12247 152 200296286581 86237 158 273 71 — — — — — —
201819 A+ MLEFort Myers Miracle — 208192 45634 15491 64 234293359653 125292 247 282 77 — — — — — —
201819 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 327303 801806 16683 224 264307383690 119309 215 301 90 — — — — — —
201920 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 148137 28712 8391 62 204253314567 109257 265 241 49 — — — — — —
201920 A+ MLEFort Myers Miracle — 418390 741626 201363 168 190235287522 97265 335 232 43 — — — — — —
202223 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 4140 12402 150 00 300317550867 250303 122 376 140 +2 +0 +1 +2 +1 0.6
202223 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 153136 371014 13393 122 272349449797 176343 258 342 118 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 239217 677015 20552 61 309372548921 240354 238 402 158 +17 +1 +1 +1 +5 2.5
202324 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 5147 14104 3160 31 298340574914 277340 316 393 152 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 325294 6816016 26740 00 231294449743 218251 238 321 103 +1 +0 +1 +1 +7 1.1
202425 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 3130 5200 1130 10 167194233427 67254 423 168 0 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 403376 8918013 25800 122 237284388673 152267 206 298 88 -6 +2 +2 +2 +9 0.8
202526 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 3331 4100 1100 00 129156161318 32163 303 131 -25 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 509464 10524115 371303 161 226288379667 153279 267 295 86 -8 +3 -3 +2 +11 0.5
202627 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 6762 15307 3162 00 242299629928 387223 244 394 153 — — — — — —
201718 ROK MLE2 teams — 239212 47623 17479 183 222307311618 90270 207 274 71 — — — — — —
201718 ROK RAW2 teams — 239204 57834 25339 183 279382407789 127315 1410 358 71 — — — — — —
201819 A MLE2 teams — 535495 12524310 311174 288 253302374676 121309 226 294 85 — — — — — —
201819 A RAW2 teams — 535483 14129314 43844 288 292355451806 159326 168 355 85 — — — — — —
201920 A+ MLE3 teams — 661617 1202749 322044 2711 194239295534 100269 315 234 45 — — — — — —
201920 A+ RAW3 teams — 661602 15235415 471454 2711 252311399710 146304 227 313 45 — — — — — —
202223 AAA MLE2 teams — 194176 491416 14443 122 278342472814 193339 237 349 122 — — — — — —
202223 AAA RAW2 teams — 194171 531617 19373 122 310389538927 228359 1910 404 122 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLE2 teams — 290264 818019 23712 92 307367553920 246354 248 401 157 +20 +1 +1 +1 +6 3.0
202324 MLB RAW2 teams — 290262 838021 25682 92 317381588968 271356 239 420 157 +20 +1 +1 +1 +6 3.0
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 356324 7318016 27870 10 225285429714 204252 248 308 94 -2 +0 +1 +1 +8 0.8
202425 MLB RAW2 teams — 356321 7318016 30850 10 227293433726 206253 248 316 94 -2 +0 +1 +1 +8 0.8
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 436407 9319013 26900 122 229275371646 143261 216 285 79 -11 +2 +2 +2 +9 0.4
202526 MLB RAW2 teams — 436407 9319013 26880 122 229275371646 143259 206 286 79 -11 +2 +2 +2 +9 0.4
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 576526 12027122 401465 161 228289409698 181270 257 307 94 -4 +3 -3 +2 +12 1.0
202627 MLB RAW2 teams — 576523 12528125 431435 161 239303440743 201278 257 326 94 -4 +3 -3 +2 +12 1.0
201718 ROK MLE2 teams — 239211 47623 17479 183 223307313620 90265 207 274 71 — — — — — —
201819 A MLE2 teams — 535495 12524310 311174 288 253302374676 121302 226 294 85 — — — — — —
201920 A+ MLE3 teams — 661620 1202749 322044 2711 194239294532 100263 315 234 45 — — — — — —
202223 AAA MLE2 teams — 194175 491416 14443 122 280342474816 194335 237 349 122 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLE2 teams — 290263 818019 23712 92 308367555922 247351 248 401 157 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 356326 7318016 27870 10 224285426711 202251 248 308 94 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 436407 9319013 26900 122 229275371646 143259 216 285 79 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 576526 12027122 401465 161 228289409698 181272 257 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 356326 7318016 27870 10 224285426711 202251 248 308 94 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 436407 9319013 26900 122 229275371646 143259 216 285 79 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 576526 12027122 401465 161 228289409698 181272 257 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLEMIN 100% 496455 10723119 351163 123 236294417711 181272 237 313 98 -1 +1 -2 +2 +11 1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXMIN 100% 430395 9420117 301002 103 236294418712 182272 237 313 98 -1 +1 -2 +2 +9 0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLEMIN 100% 504461 10823119 351193 103 233291410702 177271 247 309 95 -3 +1 -3 +2 +11 0.8
202930 MLB MLEMIN 100% 489450 10222018 341172 72 230287402689 172268 247 304 92 -5 +1 -4 +2 +11 0.4
203031 MLB MLEMIN 100% 381350 7917014 26932 32 225282391673 166264 247 297 87 -6 -0 -4 +1 +8 -0.1
203132 MLB MLEMIN 100% 358330 7215012 24891 01 219274377651 158259 257 288 81 -8 -0 -5 +1 +8 -0.4
202829 MLB CTXMIN 100% 504461 10823119 351193 103 233291411703 178271 247 309 95 -3 +1 -3 +2 +11 0.8
202930 MLB CTXMIN 100% 489450 10222018 341172 72 230287403690 173268 247 304 92 -5 +1 -4 +2 +11 0.4
203031 MLB CTXMIN 100% 381350 7917014 26932 32 225282392674 167264 247 298 87 -6 -0 -4 +1 +8 -0.1
203132 MLB CTXMIN 100% 358330 7215012 24891 01 219275377652 159259 257 289 81 -8 -0 -5 +1 +8 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 32492979 7021462124 23176213 5412 236294411704 175273 237 311 88 -14 +6 -14 +14 +70 6.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 14029025 461523 112 235293409702 174272 237 311 88 -3 +1 -3 +3 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 54495007 116324013178 359132437 15340 232289392681 160278 247 299 88 -15 +7 -15 +16 +80 7.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 13929221 431584 185 233289394682 161279 247 299 88 -3 +1 -3 +3 +14 1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 67 PAwOBA .525 → .394 (−131)K% 19.4% → 23.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.40%÷1.000×1.200——23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.46%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0035.16%
HBP% /PA2.99%—×0.940—×1.0032.81%
Singles /BIP12.77%÷1.000×0.930—×1.00311.91%
Doubles /BIP8.51%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0037.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP21.28%÷1.000×0.700—×1.00314.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .525 → .394; ISO .567 → .398; BABIP .270 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 33 PAwOBA .143 → .131 (−12)K% 24.2% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.24%÷0.989×1.200——29.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.03%÷1.022×0.690—×1.0182.08%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP13.04%÷0.944×0.930—×1.01813.08%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷0.938×0.830—×1.0183.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.253×0.700—×1.0180.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .143 → .131; ISO .032 → .029; BABIP .167 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 31 PAwOBA .210 → .168 (−42)K% 35.5% → 42.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.48%÷0.995×1.200——42.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0334.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.010×0.930—×1.03315.86%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷0.996×0.830—×1.0339.56%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.043×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.039×0.700—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .210 → .168; ISO .069 → .054; BABIP .278 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 51 PAwOBA .493 → .393 (−99)K% 25.5% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.49%÷0.973×1.200——31.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.80%÷1.067×0.690—×1.0486.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP28.12%÷0.964×0.930—×1.04828.43%
Doubles /BIP3.12%÷1.341×0.830—×1.0482.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.977×0.970—×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP18.75%÷1.009×0.700—×1.04813.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .493 → .393; ISO .422 → .301; BABIP .370 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 153 PAwOBA .404 → .342 (−61)K% 20.9% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.92%÷0.981×1.200——25.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.012×0.690—×1.0508.42%
HBP% /PA1.96%—×0.940—×1.0501.94%
Singles /BIP23.23%÷1.000×0.930×0.995×1.05022.58%
Doubles /BIP12.12%÷1.079×0.830×0.995×1.0509.75%
Triples /BIP1.01%÷1.150×0.970×0.995×1.0500.89%
Home runs /BIP5.05%÷0.881×0.700—×1.0504.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .404 → .342; ISO .221 → .181; BABIP .379 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 418 PAwOBA .291 → .232 (−59)K% 21.5% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.53%÷0.939×1.420——32.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.22%÷1.019×0.750—×1.0424.77%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.930—×1.0420.70%
Singles /BIP20.82%÷0.975×0.920×0.950×1.04219.45%
Doubles /BIP5.80%÷0.908×0.960×0.950×1.0426.08%
Triples /BIP1.02%÷0.900×0.810×0.950×1.0420.91%
Home runs /BIP3.41%÷1.362×0.880—×1.0422.30%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .291 → .232; ISO .138 → .100; BABIP .281 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 148 PAwOBA .286 → .241 (−45)K% 22.3% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.30%÷1.027×1.220——26.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.43%÷1.028×0.680—×1.0505.16%
HBP% /PA0.68%—×0.840—×1.0500.60%
Singles /BIP18.81%÷0.970×0.920×0.950×1.05017.80%
Doubles /BIP8.91%÷1.160×0.910×0.950×1.0506.97%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷0.900×0.880×0.950×1.0500.97%
Home runs /BIP1.98%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0501.66%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .286 → .241; ISO .127 → .104; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 327 PAwOBA .368 → .301 (−67)K% 15.0% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.98%÷0.980×1.360——20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.03%÷1.041×0.690—×1.0454.87%
HBP% /PA0.92%—×0.780—×1.0450.75%
Singles /BIP24.80%÷0.984×0.920×0.954×1.04523.10%
Doubles /BIP9.35%÷1.031×0.830×0.954×1.0457.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.993×0.910×0.954×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP3.66%÷1.163×0.800—×1.0452.63%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .368 → .301; ISO .169 → .126; BABIP .349 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .