Orlando Arcia — OGILVIE

Orlando ArciaSS St. Paul Saints

Age 31 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs MLB Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION292 act + 194 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 6869vR 73

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .285 / .385

PA194

HR6

K%21

BB%6

BABIP278

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 46 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT46

Whiff%

5010.9%

xwOBA

100.258

POWER46

Barrel%

214.4

Avg EV

3487.9

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE43

Chase%

5530.7%

SPEED51

Sprint

1025.5

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 816 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

203

613

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

261

267

—

ISO

099

132

▶▶R

BABIP

270

242

◀L

23.2%

20.9%

▶R

BB%

7.9%

5.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
Totals		$0.6M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	16	ROK	DSL Brewers	—	254	231	52	12	1	5	17	29	4	13	4	225	290	351	640	126	236	11	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	16	ROK	DSL Brewers	—	254	218	64	16	1	6	30	20	4	13	4	294	389	459	848	165	299	8	12	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	457	103	11	4	3	20	57	6	20	9	225	267	287	554	61	251	12	4	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	442	111	14	5	4	35	40	6	20	9	251	315	333	647	81	268	8	7	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	2 teams	—	802	744	193	46	7	5	44	152	4	34	13	259	304	360	665	101	319	19	5	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	2 teams	—	802	725	203	42	7	11	63	103	4	34	13	280	341	403	744	123	313	13	8	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	2 teams	—	682	641	175	44	10	8	24	123	6	25	9	273	306	410	716	137	324	18	4	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	2 teams	—	682	621	191	43	9	9	44	88	6	25	9	308	359	449	808	142	343	13	6	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA	3 teams	—	764	717	147	25	8	12	37	179	4	26	8	205	248	312	560	107	255	23	5	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA	3 teams	—	764	704	178	32	9	14	50	142	4	26	8	253	306	384	690	131	298	19	7	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	506	143	18	2	16	36	100	1	14	7	283	331	421	752	138	323	18	7	316	100	-0	+0	+8	+6	+16	3.0
2017	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	506	140	17	2	15	36	100	1	14	7	277	326	407	733	130	317	18	7	325	107	+4	+0	+8	+6	+16	3.4
2018	23	MLB	3 teams	—	546	515	127	24	1	5	25	130	2	9	5	247	284	326	610	80	319	24	5	271	66	-21	-0	+7	+6	+15	0.7
2018	23	MLB	3 teams	—	546	505	135	27	1	6	35	107	2	9	5	267	317	360	678	93	327	20	6	304	91	-6	-0	+7	+6	+15	2.3
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	494	113	17	1	16	43	109	1	8	5	229	292	364	656	136	259	20	8	279	72	-17	-0	-2	+6	+15	0.2
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	494	110	16	1	15	43	109	1	8	5	223	286	350	636	128	253	20	8	283	75	-15	-0	-2	+6	+15	0.4
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	45	10	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	260	319	416	735	156	292	17	7	329	110	+2	+0	+2	+2	+5	1.2
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	45	10	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	260	319	416	735	156	292	17	7	326	108	+2	+0	+2	+2	+5	1.1
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	411	378	85	15	0	16	28	67	1	6	3	225	280	392	672	167	231	16	7	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	411	368	97	19	0	19	38	57	1	6	3	264	334	470	804	207	264	14	9	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	3 teams	—	355	315	76	14	0	13	33	83	3	2	0	241	319	410	729	168	283	23	9	318	101	+1	+0	-2	+1	+10	1.1
2022	27	MLB	3 teams	—	355	313	73	12	0	11	35	77	3	2	0	233	316	377	693	144	271	22	10	310	96	-2	+0	-2	+1	+10	0.8
2023	28	MLB	2 teams	—	599	547	145	28	0	19	44	115	4	1	1	265	324	420	745	155	303	19	7	326	108	+5	-0	+6	+6	+17	3.5
2023	28	MLB	2 teams	—	599	546	143	28	0	19	45	108	4	1	1	262	323	418	740	156	294	18	8	328	109	+6	-0	+6	+6	+17	3.6
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	602	551	120	24	0	17	41	128	2	2	0	218	274	354	628	136	249	21	7	274	68	-22	+0	+6	+6	+17	0.9
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	602	551	120	24	0	17	41	128	2	2	0	218	274	354	628	136	249	21	7	279	71	-19	+0	+6	+6	+17	1.1
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	266	253	44	7	1	3	12	58	0	0	1	174	211	245	456	71	212	22	5	207	17	-25	-0	+2	+3	+8	-1.3
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	266	252	53	10	1	5	13	54	0	0	1	210	249	317	567	107	247	20	5	253	52	-14	-0	+2	+3	+8	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	MIN	—	292	277	70	12	1	10	14	57	0	4	4	253	289	412	700	159	284	20	5	306	92	-3	-1	+0	+3	+8	0.8
YTD	31	AAA	MIN	—	292	271	79	15	1	12	20	49	0	4	4	292	340	487	827	196	318	17	7	363	136	+12	-1	+0	+3	+8	2.3
ROS	31	AAA	MIN	100%	194	181	44	8	0	6	11	40	0	2	1	242	285	385	671	143	280	21	6	298	86	-3	+0	-1	+2	+6	0.4
ROS	31	MLB	MIN	100%	195	182	44	8	0	6	11	40	0	2	1	242	285	385	670	143	280	21	6	297	86	-3	+0	-1	+2	+6	0.4
FULL	31	AAA	MIN	—	487	459	114	20	1	16	25	97	0	6	5	248	287	401	688	153	282	20	5	302	90	-6	-1	-1	+5	+14	1.2
TOT	31	AAA	MIN	—	486	458	114	20	1	16	25	97	0	6	5	249	287	401	689	153	282	20	5	303	90	-6	-1	-1	+5	+14	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	MIN	100%	590	550	131	22	1	17	34	124	1	4	3	238	284	375	658	136	276	21	6	292	82	-12	-0	-5	+6	+17	0.5
2028	33	MLB	MIN	100%	509	474	110	18	1	14	29	109	1	3	2	232	278	363	641	131	271	21	6	285	76	-14	-0	-6	+5	+14	0.0
2029	34	MLB	MIN	100%	430	402	90	14	1	11	25	95	0	2	1	224	269	346	615	122	265	22	6	275	69	-15	+0	-6	+5	+12	-0.5
2027	32	MLB	MIN	100%	590	550	131	22	1	17	34	124	1	4	3	238	284	375	658	136	276	21	6	292	81	-12	-0	-5	+6	+17	0.5
2028	33	MLB	MIN	100%	509	474	110	18	1	14	29	109	1	3	2	232	278	363	641	131	271	21	6	284	76	-14	-0	-6	+5	+14	-0.0
2029	34	MLB	MIN	100%	430	402	90	14	1	11	25	95	0	2	1	224	269	346	615	122	265	22	6	275	69	-15	+0	-6	+5	+12	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5261	4862	1153	199	11	138	340	1090	13	54	24	237	289	368	657	131	277	21	6	292	82	-109	+1	+11	+59	+149	11.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	142	25	1	17	42	135	2	7	3	236	288	366	654	130	276	21	6	292	82	-13	+0	+1	+7	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	8773	8129	1943	357	39	191	517	1730	41	173	72	239	288	363	651	124	280	20	6	284	76	-241	+6	+11	+83	+249	10.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	143	26	3	14	38	128	3	13	5	238	286	360	646	123	278	20	6	284	76	-18	+1	+1	+6	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	16	ROK	DSL Brewers	—	254	218	64	16	1	6	30	20	4	13	4	294	389	459	848	165	299	8	12	376	146	+13	+1	—	—	+7	2.2
2013	18	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	442	111	14	5	4	35	40	6	20	9	251	315	333	647	81	268	8	7	294	83	-9	+0	—	—	+14	0.5
2014	19	A+	Brevard County Manatees	—	546	498	144	29	5	4	42	65	2	31	11	289	347	392	738	102	326	12	8	330	111	+7	+2	—	—	+15	2.5
2014	19	INTL	Venezuela	—	256	227	59	13	2	7	21	38	2	3	2	260	328	427	755	167	283	15	8	328	110	+3	-0	—	—	+7	1.0
2015	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	552	512	157	37	7	8	30	73	3	25	8	307	349	453	802	146	343	13	5	351	127	+17	+2	—	—	+16	3.5
2015	20	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	130	109	34	6	2	1	14	15	3	0	1	312	405	431	836	119	344	12	11	366	138	+6	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2016	21	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	216	201	44	10	3	4	15	47	0	8	0	219	273	358	631	139	267	22	7	282	74	-6	+2	+2	+8	+6	1.1
2016	21	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	440	404	108	19	6	8	29	77	3	15	8	267	321	403	725	136	312	18	7	321	103	+2	-0	—	—	+12	1.4
2016	21	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	108	99	26	3	0	2	6	18	1	3	0	263	311	354	665	91	300	17	6	296	84	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2017	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	506	140	17	2	15	36	100	1	14	7	277	326	407	733	130	317	18	7	325	107	+4	+0	+8	+6	+16	3.4
2018	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	366	348	82	16	0	3	15	87	1	7	4	236	269	307	577	72	305	24	4	260	57	-18	-0	+7	+6	+10	0.6
2018	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	96	85	29	5	1	2	10	15	1	2	1	341	417	494	911	153	397	16	10	405	168	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2018	23	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	84	72	24	6	0	1	10	5	0	0	0	333	415	458	873	125	338	6	12	383	151	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	494	110	16	1	15	43	109	1	8	5	223	286	350	636	128	253	20	8	283	75	-15	-0	-2	+6	+15	0.4
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	45	10	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	260	319	416	735	156	292	17	7	326	108	+2	+0	+2	+2	+5	1.1
2021	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	89	81	16	3	0	2	7	19	0	1	0	198	261	309	570	111	230	21	8	257	55	-5	+0	-0	-4	+3	-0.7
2021	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	322	287	81	16	0	17	31	38	1	5	3	282	354	516	870	233	272	12	10	378	147	+17	-0	—	—	+9	2.7
2022	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	234	209	51	9	0	9	21	51	2	0	0	244	319	416	735	172	278	22	9	326	108	+2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.8
2022	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	16	13	3	1	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	231	375	308	683	77	429	38	19	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	27	INTL	Venezuela	—	105	91	19	2	0	2	11	20	1	2	0	209	301	297	598	88	239	19	10	273	67	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2023	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	533	488	129	25	0	17	39	102	3	1	0	264	323	420	743	156	301	19	7	330	110	+6	+0	+6	+6	+15	3.4
2023	28	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	66	58	14	3	0	2	6	6	1	0	1	241	323	397	720	155	240	9	9	319	103	+0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	602	551	120	24	0	17	41	128	2	2	0	218	274	354	628	136	249	21	7	279	71	-19	+0	+6	+6	+17	1.1
2025	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	214	203	41	7	1	3	10	47	0	0	1	202	239	291	530	89	247	22	5	238	40	-14	-0	+2	+3	+6	-0.4
2025	30	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	52	49	12	3	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	245	288	429	717	184	250	13	6	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3537	3254	778	137	8	90	241	722	11	43	17	239	294	369	663	130	279	20	7	295	84	-64	+2	+29	+40	+100	11.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	13	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
	/162	664	18	5	233	301	384	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3Henry Blancolast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,779 PA	14	2,779	65	5	221	284	359	+27	+49	8.6	9.6
	/162	664	16	1	221	284	359	+6.6	+11.7	2.1	pk7: 11
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	5,514	144	53	237	286	368	+56	+63	8.7	8.8
	/162	664	17	6	237	286	368	+6.7	+7.6	1.1	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Orlando Arcia (OGILVIE)	31	46	46	51	43	249/287/401	153	282	16	6	20%	5%	90	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Tommy Field 2017 · MLB	30	40→50	47→45	48→45	46	207/275/338	131	249	15	6	24%	7%	70	-0.3	201/253/310	109	252	11	7	24%	5%	53	-1.5	180/226/266	87	227	7	5	24%	4%	27	-2.5
✕Chad Moeller 2006 · MLB	31	43	47→50	42→30	46	221/278/357	136	260	15	3	22%	7%	76	+0.0	210/267/325	115	262	12	3	24%	6%	63	-0.8	206/258/306	100	258	8	0	23%	5%	51	-0.5
✕Humberto Sosa 2017 · AAA	31	46→49	44→50	47→45	42	228/274/332	103	287	13	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	229/274/377	148	278	19	6	24%	5%	79	+0.3	232/276/427	195	261	26	1	23%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Robinson Cancel 2007 · AAA	31	47	47→45	47→50	46	236/288/370	134	273	15	8	20%	6%	83	+0.6	229/269/341	112	270	10	10	19%	5%	67	-0.5	252/300/348	96	298	8	15	18%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	45	47→50	47→50	44	226/284/365	139	286	14	4	26%	6%	80	+0.4	218/259/318	100	285	9	4	26%	4%	56	-1.3	205/237/302	97	277	10	0	29%	3%	39	-1.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	45→50	47→40	43	214/267/329	116	260	13	8	23%	6%	64	-0.8	230/280/357	127	295	15	7	26%	6%	76	+0.1	228/279/343	115	298	13	3	27%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→52	45	47→45	42	235/280/356	122	290	13	7	24%	5%	76	+0.0	222/276/349	127	293	14	13	28%	6%	72	-0.2	202/260/316	113	267	14	14	29%	6%	53	-0.6
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→46	51→55	48→40	41	229/267/387	159	267	20	7	24%	5%	79	+0.3	210/260/392	182	238	26	6	25%	5%	79	+0.3	180/232/364	185	186	30	1	25%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Adam Rosales 2014 · MLB	31	43→49	46→55	44→45	45	217/273/341	124	256	14	6	22%	6%	69	-0.4	232/296/374	142	294	16	10	26%	7%	88	+0.9	233/304/392	158	302	18	10	27%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Steve Holm 2010 · MLB	30	45	44→50	43→40	47	224/285/344	121	266	12	4	21%	7%	76	+0.0	208/272/309	101	266	8	4	24%	7%	61	-1.0	196/267/279	83	256	5	1	24%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Juan Castro 2003 · MLB	31	46	43→50	43→40	47	227/276/337	110	262	11	4	18%	6%	69	-0.4	242/281/373	131	274	13	4	17%	5%	80	+0.4	245/277/374	129	274	12	2	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→44	45→50	48→45	45	229/279/349	120	274	14	7	22%	6%	74	-0.1	228/278/352	124	318	10	7	30%	6%	74	-0.1	230/279/351	121	336	6	0	32%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Josh Phegley 2019 · MLB	31	44→47	46→60	44→40	45	219/281/356	137	266	12	4	23%	6%	77	+0.1	231/285/396	165	263	19	5	20%	6%	89	+1.0	239/286/414	175	261	22	0	18%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Wilmer Difo 2023 · MLB	31	47→54	43→45	47→55	46	233/279/343	110	276	11	7	20%	6%	72	-0.2	217/280/321	104	278	10	19	24%	8%	67	-0.5	205/278/298	92	271	9	25	26%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Jett Bandy 2019 · MLB	29	43	48→50	47→45	41	218/283/355	137	263	16	6	24%	5%	79	+0.3	206/269/342	136	270	17	5	30%	5%	69	-0.4	174/240/294	120	233	17	0	33%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2022 · MLB	31	48→55	47→45	49→50	46	239/277/378	139	256	15	7	14%	5%	80	+0.4	239/285/353	114	260	9	8	12%	6%	76	+0.1	245/293/352	107	262	10	9	11%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Carlos Rivero 2019 · AAA	31	42→52	47→50	44→45	41	215/257/344	129	265	15	5	26%	5%	63	-0.9	249/294/395	146	294	17	5	21%	6%	92	+1.2	258/303/406	147	299	18	0	20%	6%	97	+1.2