Orlando Arcia

SS Louisville Bats

Age 32 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 6.882 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBATL	602	.218/.274/.354	17	2	74	0.8
2025	30	INTLLeones del Ca…	52	.245/.288/.429	2	0	100	—
2025	30	MLBCOL	214	.202/.239/.291	3	0	40	-0.6
2026	31	AAACIN	324	.275/.329/.477	14	4	66	—	.219/.258/.353
2026	31	MLBMIN	50	.271/.300/.354	1	0	85	0.4
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBCIN	26	.229/.273/.368	1	0	75	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBCIN	233	.222/.265/.351	6	0	69	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.882First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd43

Avg EV34

Barrel%21

xwOBA10

Speed10

CompsGuillermo Quiroz (age 32) · Johnny Monell (age 32) · Austin Wynns (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7775vR 69

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .273 / .368

PA26

HR1

K%19

BB%4

BABIP262

ISO160

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.207

POWER

Barrel%

214.4

Avg EV

3487.9

Bat Spd

4370.6

SPEED

Sprint

1025.5

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 816 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

203

613

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

261

267

—

ISO

099

132

▶▶R

BABIP

270

242

◀L

23.2%

20.9%

▶R

BB%

7.9%

5.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 6.882 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	16	ROK	DSL Brewers	—	254	218	64	16	1	6	30	20	4	13	4	294	389	459	848	165	299	8	12	376	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	442	111	14	5	4	35	40	6	20	9	251	315	333	647	81	268	8	7	294	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Brevard County Manatees	—	546	498	144	29	5	4	42	65	2	31	11	289	347	392	738	102	326	12	8	330	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	INTL	Venezuela	—	256	227	59	13	2	7	21	38	2	3	2	260	328	427	755	167	283	15	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	552	512	157	37	7	8	30	73	3	25	8	307	349	453	802	146	343	13	5	351	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	130	109	34	6	2	1	14	15	3	0	1	312	405	431	836	119	344	12	11	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	216	201	44	10	3	4	15	47	0	8	0	219	273	358	631	139	267	22	7	282	79	-5	+2	+2	+8	+5	1.1
2016	21	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	440	404	108	19	6	8	29	77	3	15	8	267	321	403	725	136	312	18	7	321	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	108	99	26	3	0	2	6	18	1	3	0	263	311	354	665	91	300	17	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	506	140	17	2	15	36	100	1	14	7	277	326	407	733	130	317	18	7	325	99	-1	+0	+8	+6	+12	2.6
2018	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	366	348	82	16	0	3	15	87	1	7	4	236	269	307	577	72	305	24	4	260	64	-15	-0	+7	+6	+8	0.6
2018	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	96	85	29	5	1	2	10	15	1	2	1	341	417	494	911	153	397	16	10	405	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	84	72	24	6	0	1	10	5	0	0	0	333	415	458	873	125	338	6	12	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	494	110	16	1	15	43	109	1	8	5	223	286	350	636	128	253	20	8	283	74	-17	-0	-2	+6	+12	-0.1
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	45	10	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	260	319	416	735	156	292	17	7	326	109	+2	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.0
2021	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	89	81	16	3	0	2	7	19	0	1	0	198	261	309	570	111	230	21	8	257	55	-5	+0	-0	-4	+2	-0.8
2021	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	322	287	81	16	0	17	31	38	1	5	3	282	354	516	870	233	272	12	10	378	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	234	209	51	9	0	9	21	51	2	0	0	244	319	416	735	172	278	22	9	326	107	+2	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.7
2022	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	16	13	3	1	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	231	375	308	683	77	429	38	19	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	INTL	Venezuela	—	105	91	19	2	0	2	11	20	1	2	0	209	301	297	598	88	239	19	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	533	488	129	25	0	17	39	102	3	1	0	264	323	420	743	156	301	19	7	330	109	+6	+0	+6	+6	+12	3.0
2023	28	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	66	58	14	3	0	2	6	6	1	0	1	241	323	397	720	155	240	9	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	602	551	120	24	0	17	41	128	2	2	0	218	274	354	628	136	249	21	7	279	74	-19	+0	+6	+6	+13	0.8
2025	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	214	203	41	7	1	3	10	47	0	0	1	202	239	291	530	89	247	22	5	238	40	-15	-0	+2	+3	+5	-0.6
2025	30	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	52	49	12	3	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	245	288	429	717	184	250	13	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	50	48	13	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	1	271	300	354	654	83	308	16	4	294	85	-1	-0	+0	+4	+1	0.4
2026	31	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	324	298	82	16	1	14	24	53	0	4	3	275	329	477	806	201	292	16	7	352	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3587	3302	791	138	8	91	243	730	11	43	18	240	294	369	663	129	279	20	7	295	86	-60	+1	+29	+44	+78	9.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	—	254	228	43	10	1	3	20	24	4	13	4	189	266	281	547	92	194	9	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	455	108	12	5	3	22	56	6	20	9	237	282	305	587	68	263	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Brevard County Manatees	—	546	508	139	31	5	4	32	98	2	31	11	274	319	378	697	104	326	18	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	552	522	150	38	7	6	20	92	3	25	8	287	317	421	739	134	330	17	4	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	216	201	45	11	3	4	15	47	0	8	0	224	278	368	646	144	267	22	7	285	79	-5	+2	+2	+8	+5	1.1
2016	21	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	440	414	90	13	4	6	19	103	3	15	8	217	257	312	568	94	273	23	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	515	141	18	2	14	27	100	1	14	7	274	311	398	709	124	317	18	5	314	99	-1	+0	+8	+6	+12	2.6
2018	23	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	366	348	83	17	0	3	15	87	1	7	4	239	272	313	585	75	305	24	4	263	64	-15	-0	+7	+6	+8	0.6
2018	23	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	96	89	26	4	1	1	6	21	1	2	1	292	344	393	737	101	374	22	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	499	110	17	1	14	38	109	1	8	5	220	277	343	620	122	253	20	7	278	74	-17	-0	-2	+6	+12	-0.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	46	11	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	266	324	428	752	162	292	17	7	329	109	+2	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	89	82	16	3	0	2	6	19	0	1	0	195	250	305	555	110	230	21	7	249	55	-5	+0	-0	-4	+2	-0.8
2021	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	322	297	69	13	0	12	21	47	1	5	3	232	285	397	683	165	233	15	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	234	209	51	9	0	9	21	51	2	0	0	244	319	416	735	172	278	22	9	326	107	+2	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.7
2022	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	214	312	286	598	71	381	44	12	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	533	488	129	25	0	17	39	102	3	1	0	264	323	420	743	156	301	19	7	330	109	+6	+0	+6	+6	+12	3.0
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	602	552	120	24	0	17	40	128	2	2	0	217	273	353	626	136	249	21	7	278	74	-19	+0	+6	+6	+13	0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	214	203	40	7	1	3	10	47	0	0	1	197	235	286	520	89	247	22	5	228	40	-15	-0	+2	+3	+5	-0.6
2026	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	50	48	13	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	1	271	300	354	654	83	308	16	4	294	85	-1	-0	+0	+4	+1	0.4
2026	31	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	324	306	67	12	1	9	16	64	0	4	3	219	258	353	611	134	245	20	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	—	254	228	43	10	1	3	20	24	4	13	4	189	266	281	547	92	197	9	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	16	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	—	254	218	64	16	1	6	30	20	4	13	4	294	389	459	848	165	299	8	12	376	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	455	108	12	5	3	22	56	6	20	9	237	282	305	587	68	264	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	442	111	14	5	4	35	40	6	20	9	251	315	333	647	81	268	8	7	294	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	802	741	202	45	7	5	47	144	4	34	13	273	319	372	692	100	331	18	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	802	725	203	42	7	11	63	103	4	34	13	280	341	403	744	123	313	13	8	330	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	682	640	185	46	9	8	25	113	6	25	9	289	322	427	748	138	337	17	4	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	682	621	191	43	9	9	44	88	6	25	9	308	359	449	808	142	343	13	6	354	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	764	714	158	28	9	12	40	175	4	26	8	221	266	336	603	115	275	23	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	764	704	178	32	9	14	50	142	4	26	8	253	306	384	690	131	298	19	7	306	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	515	141	18	2	14	27	100	1	14	7	274	311	398	709	124	314	18	5	314	99	-1	+0	+8	+6	+12	2.6
2017	22	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	506	140	17	2	15	36	100	1	14	7	277	326	407	733	130	317	18	7	325	99	-1	+0	+8	+6	+12	2.6
2018	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	546	515	129	25	1	5	25	128	2	9	5	250	288	332	620	82	322	23	5	279	75	-16	-0	+7	+6	+12	0.9
2018	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	546	505	135	27	1	6	35	107	2	9	5	267	317	360	678	93	327	20	6	304	75	-16	-0	+7	+6	+12	0.9
2019	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	499	110	17	1	14	38	109	1	8	5	220	277	343	620	122	251	20	7	278	74	-17	-0	-2	+6	+12	-0.1
2019	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	494	110	16	1	15	43	109	1	8	5	223	286	350	636	128	253	20	8	283	74	-17	-0	-2	+6	+12	-0.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	46	11	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	266	324	428	752	162	299	17	7	329	109	+2	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	173	45	10	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	260	319	416	735	156	292	17	7	326	109	+2	+0	+2	+2	+4	1.0
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	411	379	85	16	0	14	27	66	1	6	3	224	278	377	655	153	234	16	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	411	368	97	19	0	19	38	57	1	6	3	264	334	470	804	207	264	14	9	352	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	355	315	76	14	0	13	33	83	3	2	0	241	319	410	729	168	283	23	9	321	103	+1	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.9
2022	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	355	313	73	12	0	11	35	77	3	2	0	233	316	377	693	144	271	22	10	310	103	+1	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	599	547	145	28	0	19	44	115	4	1	1	265	324	420	745	155	303	19	7	330	109	+7	-0	+6	+6	+13	3.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	599	546	143	28	0	19	45	108	4	1	1	262	323	418	740	156	294	18	8	328	109	+7	-0	+6	+6	+13	3.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	602	552	120	24	0	17	40	128	2	2	0	217	273	353	626	136	249	21	7	278	74	-19	+0	+6	+6	+13	0.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	602	551	120	24	0	17	41	128	2	2	0	218	274	354	628	136	249	21	7	279	74	-19	+0	+6	+6	+13	0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	266	253	48	8	1	3	12	58	0	0	1	190	226	265	491	75	233	22	5	228	40	-19	-0	+2	+3	+6	-0.9
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	266	252	53	10	1	5	13	54	0	0	1	210	249	317	567	107	247	20	5	253	40	-19	-0	+2	+3	+6	-0.9
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	354	80	13	1	10	18	72	0	4	4	226	263	353	617	127	255	19	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	374	346	95	17	1	15	26	61	0	4	4	275	325	460	785	185	294	16	7	345	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	—	254	228	43	10	1	3	20	24	4	13	4	189	266	281	547	92	194	9	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	486	455	108	12	5	3	22	56	6	20	9	237	282	305	587	68	263	12	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	802	745	202	45	7	5	47	144	4	34	13	271	319	370	690	99	326	18	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	682	646	185	46	9	8	25	113	6	25	9	286	322	423	745	136	330	17	4	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	764	714	158	28	9	12	40	175	4	26	8	221	266	336	603	115	271	23	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	548	515	141	18	2	14	27	100	1	14	7	274	311	398	709	124	317	18	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	546	514	129	25	1	5	25	128	2	9	5	251	288	333	621	82	319	23	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	546	502	110	17	1	14	38	109	1	8	5	219	277	341	618	122	253	20	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	189	172	46	11	1	5	14	32	1	2	0	267	324	430	755	163	292	17	7	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	411	380	85	16	0	14	27	66	1	6	3	224	278	376	654	153	232	16	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	355	316	76	14	0	13	33	83	3	2	0	241	319	408	727	168	285	23	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	599	546	145	28	0	19	44	115	4	1	1	266	324	421	746	156	301	19	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	602	555	120	24	0	17	40	128	2	2	0	216	273	351	624	135	249	21	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	266	252	48	8	1	3	12	58	0	0	1	190	226	266	492	75	247	22	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	353	80	13	1	10	18	72	0	4	4	227	263	354	618	127	253	19	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	602	555	120	24	0	17	40	128	2	2	0	216	273	351	624	135	249	21	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	266	252	48	8	1	3	12	58	0	0	1	190	226	266	492	75	247	22	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	353	80	13	1	10	18	72	0	4	4	227	263	354	618	127	253	19	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	374	349	80	15	1	10	21	77	1	3	1	227	271	359	630	132	261	21	6	280	75	-11	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	26	25	6	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	229	273	368	641	139	262	19	4	284	75	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	233	219	49	9	1	6	12	49	0	0	0	220	263	344	606	124	256	21	5	269	69	-9	+0	-5	+2	+5	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	233	219	48	8	1	6	12	49	0	0	0	222	265	351	616	129	257	21	5	273	69	-9	+0	-5	+2	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3820	3521	839	146	9	97	255	779	11	43	18	238	292	368	659	129	278	20	7	294	81	-69	+1	+24	+47	+83	8.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	144	25	2	17	43	133	2	7	3	240	293	374	667	134	280	20	7	294	81	-12	+0	+4	+8	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7922	7347	1781	334	40	158	459	1506	39	168	70	242	291	363	654	121	283	19	6	288	81	-77	+1	+23	+50	+89	8.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	145	27	3	13	38	124	3	14	6	240	289	360	649	119	281	19	6	288	81	-12	+0	+4	+8	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 324 PAwOBA .345 → .266 (−78)K% 16.4% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.82%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.990	×0.952	18.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.990	×0.952	5.11%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.990	×0.952	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	3.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .345 → .266; ISO .201 → .142; BABIP .292 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 16 PAwOBA .317 → .249 (−68)K% 37.5% → 44.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.50%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	44.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×0.992	25.91%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.966	×0.830	—	×0.992	12.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .249; ISO .077 → .063; BABIP .429 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 322 PAwOBA .371 → .295 (−76)K% 11.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.80%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	14.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.63%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.57%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.29%
Singles /BIP	19.28%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.977	×1.003	17.38%
Doubles /BIP	6.43%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.977	×1.003	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.977	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.83%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.79%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .371 → .295; ISO .233 → .171; BABIP .272 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 96 PAwOBA .389 → .337 (−51)K% 15.6% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.62%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	21.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.048	6.29%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.07%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.014	×0.900	×1.047	×1.048	29.22%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.014	×0.810	×1.047	×1.048	6.26%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.047	×1.048	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.048	2.08%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .389 → .337; ISO .153 → .118; BABIP .397 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 440 PAwOBA .312 → .254 (−58)K% 17.5% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.50%	÷0.964	×1.290	—	—	23.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.14%	÷1.052	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.35%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.70%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷1.046	×0.900	×1.026	×1.050	21.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.196	×0.810	×1.026	×1.050	4.24%
Triples /BIP	1.83%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.026	×1.050	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	2.45%	÷0.973	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .312 → .254; ISO .136 → .103; BABIP .312 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 552 PAwOBA .342 → .316 (−27)K% 13.2% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.22%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.25%	÷1.018	×0.680	—	×1.050	3.69%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.48%
Singles /BIP	23.92%	÷1.030	×0.920	×1.004	×1.050	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	8.43%	÷0.943	×0.910	×1.004	×1.050	8.57%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.004	×1.050	1.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.084	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.41%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .342 → .316; ISO .146 → .138; BABIP .343 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Brevard County Manatees · 546 PAwOBA .322 → .300 (−23)K% 11.9% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.90%	÷0.947	×1.420	—	—	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.029	×0.750	—	×1.042	5.84%
HBP% /PA	0.37%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.35%
Singles /BIP	24.48%	÷1.024	×0.920	×1.038	×1.042	23.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.70%	÷0.937	×0.960	×1.038	×1.042	7.43%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.038	×1.042	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	0.92%	÷0.954	×0.880	—	×1.042	0.89%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 89, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .322 → .300; ISO .102 → .103; BABIP .326 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 486 PAwOBA .285 → .261 (−25)K% 8.2% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.23%	÷0.973	×1.360	—	—	11.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.79%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×1.045	4.64%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.01%
Singles /BIP	21.89%	÷0.991	×0.920	×1.033	×1.045	21.94%
Doubles /BIP	3.48%	÷1.040	×0.830	×1.033	×1.045	3.00%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷1.032	×0.910	×1.033	×1.045	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	1.00%	÷1.011	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.82%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 106, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .285 → .261; ISO .081 → .071; BABIP .268 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Craig Reynolds'75-'89 * career totals — 14 seasons, 4,863 PA	7.3	4,863	42	58	251*	289*	370*	+47	+27	11.2	11.4
/162	664	6	8	+6.4	+3.6	1.5	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	5.8	3,846	97	43	239	289	369	+41	+50	7.4	8.0
/162	664	17	7	+7.1	+8.7	1.3	pk7: 8
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Rob Wilfong'77-'87 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,014 PA	4.5	3,014	39	54	243*	302*	363*	+10	+49	6.8	6.7
/162	664	9	12	+2.2	+10.7	1.5	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Orlando Arcia (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	225/269/356	131	261	7	2	20%	6%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→43	46→50	48→45	45	230/280/356	126	272	15	7	22%	6%	79	-0.2	223/277/344	121	309	10	7	29%	7%	74	-0.5	213/263/322	109	308	6	0	31%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	45	48→40	46	221/280/340	119	261	14	6	22%	7%	76	-0.4	238/302/348	110	299	11	5	23%	7%	85	+0.2	237/301/332	94	305	9	2	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2014 · AAA	32	43	47→45	48→40	42	220/274/352	132	275	16	8	26%	6%	76	-0.4	212/260/304	92	295	9	5	30%	5%	59	-1.7	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2017 · MLB	33	44→43	46→45	46→40	45	222/273/345	123	254	14	5	19%	6%	74	-0.6	190/253/289	99	247	9	4	26%	6%	54	-2.0	161/229/240	79	220	6	1	28%	6%	32	-1.5
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	44	47→45	44→40	43	226/279/361	135	267	15	9	22%	5%	80	-0.2	241/278/366	125	275	13	8	17%	4%	80	-0.1	254/278/370	115	283	11	2	14%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Issmael Salas 2014 · AAA	32	48	47→45	48→50	45	239/289/377	137	276	14	7	19%	6%	87	+0.4	235/277/334	99	271	9	6	16%	5%	72	-0.7	237/282/342	105	262	10	5	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Pat Meares 2001 · MLB	32	47	48→50	49→30	47	237/294/378	142	266	16	4	18%	6%	89	+0.5	226/271/350	124	256	13	5	17%	5%	74	-0.5	207/232/298	91	234	8	0	16%	2%	47	-1.2
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	46→49	46→50	48→55	43	229/286/350	120	286	15	9	25%	6%	80	-0.2	213/281/336	123	284	13	8	28%	8%	75	-0.5	195/272/320	125	261	14	6	29%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Dusty Wathan 2007 · AAA	33	44	46→45	45→40	44	222/285/344	123	259	15	5	21%	5%	79	-0.2	229/290/320	91	278	7	8	19%	5%	74	-0.5	237/297/291	53	290	0	6	17%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	44	44→45	47→50	42	220/261/338	118	263	12	9	22%	5%	68	-1.0	223/263/321	98	256	8	12	16%	5%	63	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Mike DiFelice 2001 · MLB	32	47	50	48→30	47	237/285/393	156	265	17	5	18%	6%	89	+0.5	223/277/349	126	269	12	5	21%	6%	76	-0.4	214/272/350	136	253	14	1	21%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Jonathan Aceves 2010 · AAA	32	44	47→50	43→30	42	224/270/360	136	270	15	5	24%	5%	76	-0.4	214/260/338	124	269	14	5	25%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Bryan Holaday 2021 · MLB	33	46	44→45	43→40	49	228/293/346	118	262	12	6	18%	7%	82	-0.0	224/284/381	157	275	18	8	25%	7%	86	+0.3	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Francisco Cordoba 2016 · AAA	32	46→52	43→45	43→40	42	228/277/330	103	281	12	3	24%	5%	72	-0.7	209/259/293	84	257	8	5	21%	5%	57	-1.8	194/247/293	99	225	12	1	20%	5%	51	-1.3
✕Chad Moeller 2006 · MLB	31	43	47→50	42→30	44	219/269/354	135	257	15	3	22%	6%	74	-0.5	206/262/320	114	256	12	3	24%	6%	64	-1.3	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Carlos Rivero 2019 · AAA	31	43→53	48→50	45	42	221/263/356	135	267	16	5	24%	6%	72	-0.7	245/293/386	141	292	17	5	22%	6%	91	+0.6	251/296/388	138	294	17	0	21%	6%	91	+0.5
✕Corky Miller 2008 · MLB	32	41	50	48→40	48	210/293/357	147	228	18	7	18%	7%	86	+0.3	213/286/335	122	245	13	5	19%	7%	77	-0.3	211/280/323	112	244	12	0	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Scott Seabol 2006 · MLB	31	43→42	47→55	48→40	46	217/269/357	140	258	14	4	22%	7%	75	-0.5	232/286/416	184	269	23	5	23%	7%	96	+1.0	231/286/430	200	260	26	4	23%	6%	98	+0.8

Orlando Arcia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps