Mike Brosseau

3B El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 33 R/R 5'10" / 203 lbs AAA HR +5% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	29	AAAMIL	78	.164/.208/.329	4	0	10	—	.135/.169/.257
2023	29	MLBMIL	78	.205/.256/.397	4	0	80	-0.3
2024	30	AAANYM	405	.263/.358/.417	15	2	69	—	.211/.291/.305
2025	31	AAASD	344	.222/.311/.358	9	6	39	—	.172/.238/.261
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBSD	24	.222/.289/.340	1	0	80	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBSD	13	.212/.278/.320	0	0	71	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed52

Barrel%47

Avg EV36

xwOBA30

CompsMario Lisson (age 32) · Trinidad Robles (age 33) · Israel Nunez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .289 / .340

PA24

HR1

K%25

BB%8

BABIP274

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.206

POWER45

Barrel%

477.8

Avg EV

3688.0

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	ROK	GCL Rays	—	142	113	36	12	1	0	15	19	8	7	3	319	434	442	876	124	371	13	11	382	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	80	69	23	3	0	1	5	15	6	4	2	333	425	420	845	87	415	19	6	388	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	344	302	96	21	2	6	26	48	12	5	7	318	394	460	854	142	361	14	8	379	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Perth Heat	—	115	96	41	11	0	6	12	12	4	6	0	427	509	729	1.238	302	432	10	10	519	237	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	417	370	97	24	3	13	29	74	10	11	4	262	333	449	781	186	290	18	7	340	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	142	132	36	7	0	6	7	39	2	1	0	273	319	462	781	189	345	27	5	343	119	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.6
2019	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	315	270	82	21	1	16	34	58	8	2	3	304	397	567	964	263	332	18	11	417	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	98	86	26	5	1	5	8	31	3	2	0	302	381	558	940	256	412	32	8	406	162	+7	+0	+3	+0	+2	1.4
2021	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	150	28	9	0	5	15	53	2	2	0	187	269	347	616	160	245	31	9	276	74	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2021	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	202	170	37	2	1	8	23	50	9	2	0	218	342	382	724	165	259	25	11	332	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	31	30	7	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	233	258	233	491		318	26	3	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	160	141	36	5	0	6	14	48	5	2	0	255	344	418	762	163	345	30	9	344	118	+4	+0	-4	+1	+3	0.4
2022	28	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	20	14	5	1	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	357	526	429	955	71	417	15	25	420	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	78	73	15	2	0	4	4	20	1	0	0	205	256	397	654	192	224	26	5	289	80	-2	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.3
2023	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	78	73	12	0	0	4	3	21	1	0	1	164	208	329	537	164	163	27	4	236	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	405	350	92	9	0	15	40	84	12	2	1	263	358	417	775	154	303	21	10	348	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	302	67	14	0	9	33	68	6	6	1	222	311	358	668	136	254	20	10	302	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	647	582	141	28	1	26	48	191	13	7	0	242	314	428	742	186	312	30	7	329	108	+7	+1	-6	+5	+14	2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	142	120	30	9	1	0	8	27	8	7	3	250	338	342	680	92	283	19	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	80	70	20	3	0	1	4	21	6	4	2	286	375	371	746	86	378	26	5	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	344	310	85	16	2	5	18	67	12	5	7	274	338	387	725	113	320	19	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	417	381	90	22	3	11	18	85	10	11	4	236	289	396	685	160	259	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	142	132	36	7	0	6	7	39	2	1	0	273	319	462	781	189	345	27	5	344	119	+3	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.6
2019	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	315	280	72	17	1	12	24	68	8	2	3	257	333	454	787	196	294	22	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	98	86	26	5	1	5	8	31	3	2	0	302	381	558	940	256	412	32	8	407	162	+7	+0	+3	+0	+2	1.4
2021	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	150	28	9	0	5	15	53	2	2	0	187	269	347	616	160	245	31	9	277	74	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2021	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	202	178	33	2	1	5	15	58	9	2	0	185	282	292	574	107	240	29	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	160	141	36	5	0	6	14	48	5	2	0	255	344	418	762	163	345	30	9	343	118	+4	+0	-4	+1	+3	0.4
2022	28	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	20	15	5	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	333	474	400	874	67	333	20	20	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	78	73	15	2	0	4	4	20	1	0	0	205	256	397	654	192	224	26	5	287	80	-2	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.3
2023	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	78	74	10	0	0	3	2	26	1	0	1	135	169	257	426	122	151	33	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	405	361	76	7	0	9	29	104	12	2	1	211	291	305	596	94	264	26	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	314	54	10	0	6	21	84	6	6	1	172	238	261	499	89	210	24	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	142	120	30	9	1	0	8	27	8	7	3	250	338	342	680	92	312	19	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	—	142	113	36	12	1	0	15	19	8	7	3	319	434	442	876	124	371	13	11	382	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	539	483	130	23	2	7	27	112	22	15	9	269	336	369	705	99	334	21	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	539	467	160	35	2	13	43	75	22	15	9	343	423	510	933	167	384	14	8	410	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	417	381	90	22	3	11	18	85	10	11	4	236	289	396	685	160	271	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	417	370	97	24	3	13	29	74	10	11	4	262	333	449	781	186	290	18	7	340	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	457	412	109	25	1	19	31	107	10	3	3	265	331	468	800	204	311	23	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	457	402	118	28	1	22	41	97	10	3	3	294	373	532	905	239	336	21	9	394	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	98	86	26	5	1	5	8	31	3	2	0	302	381	558	940	256	412	32	8	407	162	+7	+0	+3	+0	+2	1.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	98	86	26	5	1	5	8	31	3	2	0	302	381	558	940	256	412	32	8	406	162	+7	+0	+3	+0	+2	1.4
2021	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	402	357	66	12	1	11	32	121	11	4	0	185	273	317	589	132	242	30	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	402	350	72	11	1	13	39	111	11	4	0	206	305	354	659	149	259	28	10	300	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	180	156	41	6	0	6	18	52	5	2	0	263	358	417	774	154	354	29	10	345	119	+4	+0	-4	+1	+4	0.5
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	180	155	41	6	0	6	19	51	5	2	0	265	363	419	782	155	354	28	11	352	119	+4	+0	-4	+1	+4	0.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	156	147	25	2	0	7	6	46	2	0	1	170	213	327	539	156	189	29	4	235	45	-10	-0	-4	+1	+3	-1.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	156	146	27	2	0	8	7	41	2	0	1	185	232	363	595	178	194	26	4	263	45	-10	-0	-4	+1	+3	-1.1
2024	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	405	361	76	7	0	9	29	104	12	2	1	211	291	305	596	94	267	26	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	405	350	92	9	0	15	40	84	12	2	1	263	358	417	775	154	303	21	10	348	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	314	54	10	0	6	21	84	6	6	1	172	238	261	499	89	211	24	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	302	67	14	0	9	33	68	6	6	1	222	311	358	668	136	254	20	10	302	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	142	125	30	9	1	0	8	27	8	7	3	240	338	328	666	88	283	19	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	539	485	130	23	2	7	27	112	22	15	9	268	336	367	703	99	331	21	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	417	386	90	22	3	11	18	85	10	11	4	233	289	391	680	158	259	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	457	413	109	25	1	19	31	107	10	3	3	264	331	467	798	203	310	23	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	98	87	26	5	1	5	8	31	3	2	0	299	381	552	933	253	412	32	8	407	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	402	356	66	12	1	11	32	121	11	4	0	185	273	317	590	132	242	30	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	180	155	41	6	0	6	18	52	5	2	0	265	358	419	777	155	344	29	10	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	156	147	25	2	0	7	6	46	2	0	1	170	213	327	539	156	188	29	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	405	361	76	7	0	9	29	104	12	2	1	211	291	305	596	94	264	26	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	314	54	10	0	6	21	84	6	6	1	172	238	261	499	89	210	24	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	405	361	76	7	0	9	29	104	12	2	1	211	291	305	596	94	264	26	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	344	314	54	10	0	6	21	84	6	6	1	172	238	261	499	89	210	24	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SD	10%	386	350	78	14	1	8	26	92	7	5	1	225	292	344	636	119	279	24	7	287	80	-9	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	SD	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	222	289	340	629	118	274	25	8	284	80	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	6%	230	209	46	8	1	5	15	57	4	1	1	215	281	324	605	108	270	25	7	274	71	-8	-0	-6	+1	+5	-0.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	6%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	212	278	320	598	107	265	23	8	271	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	660	594	143	28	1	26	49	194	13	7	0	241	312	423	735	182	310	29	7	327	83	+6	+1	-7	+5	+14	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	142	28	1	26	48	191	13	7	0	243	314	427	742	185	313	29	7	327	83	+6	+1	-7	+5	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3608	3242	742	138	11	91	229	883	97	56	24	229	299	362	662	134	283	24	6	291	83	-7	+1	-14	+6	+24	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	133	25	2	16	41	159	17	10	4	228	297	360	657	132	283	24	6	291	83	-4	+1	-8	+4	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 344 PAwOBA .297 → .226 (−71)K% 19.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.77%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.59%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.04%
HBP% /PA	1.74%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.58%
Singles /BIP	18.80%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.965	×0.962	16.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.98%	÷1.042	×0.830	×0.965	×0.962	4.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .297 → .226; ISO .136 → .096; BABIP .254 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 405 PAwOBA .342 → .270 (−72)K% 20.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.74%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	25.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷0.933	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.10%
HBP% /PA	2.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.71%
Singles /BIP	25.56%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.998	×0.972	22.93%
Doubles /BIP	3.38%	÷0.972	×0.830	×0.998	×0.972	2.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.998	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.64%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .342 → .270; ISO .154 → .102; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 78 PAwOBA .232 → .183 (−48)K% 26.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.92%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	33.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.85%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×0.982	2.62%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.18%
Singles /BIP	15.38%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.983	×0.982	14.49%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.830	×0.983	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.983	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.905	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .232 → .183; ISO .164 → .118; BABIP .163 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 20 PAwOBA .432 → .354 (−78)K% 15.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.977	×1.270	—	—	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷0.944	×0.710	—	×0.948	17.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.083	×0.920	—	×0.948	29.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.049	×0.810	—	×0.948	6.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.885	×0.800	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 117, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .432 → .354; ISO .071 → .060; BABIP .417 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 202 PAwOBA .322 → .261 (−61)K% 24.8% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.75%	÷1.029	×1.200	—	—	28.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.89%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.42%
HBP% /PA	4.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	4.20%
Singles /BIP	21.67%	÷0.945	×0.930	×0.981	×1.003	20.97%
Doubles /BIP	1.67%	÷1.067	×0.830	×0.981	×1.003	1.27%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.981	×1.003	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.42%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .322 → .261; ISO .165 → .112; BABIP .259 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 315 PAwOBA .409 → .344 (−65)K% 18.4% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.41%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.71%
HBP% /PA	2.54%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.47%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.965	×1.033	19.50%
Doubles /BIP	9.91%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.965	×1.033	8.15%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.025	×0.970	×0.965	×1.033	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	7.55%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×1.033	5.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .409 → .344; ISO .263 → .210; BABIP .332 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 417 PAwOBA .335 → .292 (−43)K% 17.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.75%	÷1.055	×1.220	—	—	20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.47%	÷1.031	×0.680	—	×1.012	4.32%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	2.04%
Singles /BIP	19.26%	÷0.965	×0.920	×0.952	×1.012	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷1.007	×0.910	×0.952	×1.012	7.06%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.010	×0.880	×0.952	×1.012	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	4.39%	÷0.984	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.61%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .335 → .292; ISO .186 → .161; BABIP .290 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 344 PAwOBA .370 → .305 (−65)K% 14.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷0.973	×1.360	—	—	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.56%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.990	5.09%
HBP% /PA	3.49%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	2.69%
Singles /BIP	26.38%	÷0.978	×0.920	×1.003	×0.990	24.65%
Doubles /BIP	8.27%	÷1.086	×0.830	×1.003	×0.990	6.28%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.121	×0.910	×1.003	×0.990	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷0.985	×0.800	—	×0.990	1.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .370 → .305; ISO .142 → .110; BABIP .361 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Blowers'89-'99 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,585 PA	3.9	2,585	78	7	248*	318*	415*	-1	-21	5.6	6.4
/162	664	20	2	-0.3	-5.3	1.4	pk7: 7
#2Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#3Jeff Bakerlast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,915 PA	2.9	1,915	53	14	266	318	432	-17	-17	4.6	5.3
/162	664	18	5	-5.7	-5.8	1.6	pk7: 6
#4Tyler Houston'96-'03 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,946 PA	2.9	1,946	63	10	254*	298*	410*	+10	-14	3.3	3.5
/162	664	21	3	+3.4	-4.6	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.0	683	27	7	243	311	426	+2	-6	2.8	2.8
/162	664	26	7	+2.4	-6.1	2.7	pk7: 3
#5Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Rick Schu'84-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,729 PA	2.6	1,729	41	17	244*	309*	411*	+1	-22	1.4	1.8
/162	664	16	7	+0.2	-8.4	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mike Brosseau (OGILVIE)	33	45	45	50	45	223/290/341	118	279	5	3	24%	7%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	46→49	46→50	48→55	43	229/286/350	120	286	15	9	25%	6%	80	-0.2	213/281/336	123	284	13	8	28%	8%	75	-0.5	195/272/320	125	261	14	6	29%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Trinidad Robles 2006 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→45	45	233/285/353	119	284	13	11	23%	6%	80	-0.2	228/282/325	97	282	8	10	21%	6%	72	-0.7	221/276/300	79	274	6	7	21%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Issmael Salas 2014 · AAA	32	48	47→45	48→50	45	239/289/377	137	276	14	7	19%	6%	87	+0.4	235/277/334	99	271	9	6	16%	5%	72	-0.7	237/282/342	105	262	10	5	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2017 · AAA	32	43→53	46→50	48→50	47	217/285/343	126	281	13	8	27%	8%	78	-0.3	210/265/329	119	286	14	6	30%	7%	67	-1.1	210/260/330	120	277	15	3	29%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Bobby Smith 2006 · AAA	32	47	45→50	54→50	44	233/282/351	118	279	13	11	22%	6%	78	-0.3	225/270/355	130	302	14	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	204/236/338	134	293	13	7	35%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	43	43→45	46→40	41	215/264/322	107	277	12	6	27%	6%	65	-1.2	208/256/297	89	296	8	5	31%	5%	55	-1.9	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Charlie Culberson 2022 · MLB	33	49→54	47→45	53→50	44	241/292/382	142	301	13	13	24%	6%	89	+0.5	226/271/339	113	305	11	12	28%	6%	71	-0.8	206/235/275	69	295	7	12	32%	4%	43	-0.5
✕Andy Green 2010 · AAA	33	44→54	44→50	48→45	49	219/284/334	115	257	11	9	20%	8%	76	-0.4	215/272/331	116	264	11	9	22%	7%	70	-0.8	189/244/292	103	230	10	6	22%	6%	49	-1.0
✕Iker Franco 2014 · AAA	33	45→47	44→50	44→40	48	225/284/334	110	269	13	3	22%	8%	76	-0.4	230/284/316	86	280	9	4	20%	7%	71	-0.8	234/287/315	81	287	9	1	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Mark Little 2005 · MLB	33	48	43→55	49→55	47	230/317/345	115	295	10	10	24%	8%	91	+0.7	223/303/364	141	298	15	16	29%	6%	91	+0.6	212/297/344	132	290	13	18	30%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	44	47→45	44→40	43	226/279/361	135	267	15	9	22%	5%	80	-0.2	241/278/366	125	275	13	8	17%	4%	80	-0.1	254/278/370	115	283	11	2	14%	2%	77	-0.1
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2022 · AAA	33	49	47→50	48→45	40	243/288/379	136	300	15	6	24%	4%	87	+0.4	221/272/366	145	275	16	6	25%	5%	78	-0.3	184/233/337	154	215	20	0	26%	4%	55	-0.9
✕Drew Maggi 2022 · AAA	33	41→51	46→45	49→60	41	205/283/331	126	293	14	14	33%	7%	75	-0.5	184/251/269	85	261	7	20	31%	6%	49	-2.4	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕Angel Chavez 2013 · AAA	32	49→54	42→45	48→50	50	242/297/339	97	276	11	8	17%	7%	81	-0.1	237/298/344	107	280	10	11	18%	8%	82	+0.0	231/291/304	74	273	4	8	16%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Roberto Lopez 2019 · AAA	33	46→47	47→50	45	44	235/283/362	127	278	16	9	22%	6%	81	-0.1	221/272/328	107	264	13	8	21%	6%	70	-0.9	206/254/284	78	242	12	4	20%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Jantzen Witte 2024 · AAA	34	42→52	47→45	44→45	42	217/269/353	136	280	15	8	28%	6%	74	-0.5	214/273/354	140	279	16	8	28%	7%	76	-0.4	187/251/323	136	227	18	0	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Dusty Wathan 2007 · AAA	33	44	46→45	45→40	44	222/285/344	123	259	15	5	21%	5%	79	-0.2	229/290/320	91	278	7	8	19%	5%	74	-0.5	237/297/291	53	290	0	6	17%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Austin Wynns 2024 · MLB	33	48→51	43→45	49→40	47	234/301/341	107	291	11	5	23%	8%	84	+0.1	228/281/363	135	292	16	6	27%	6%	81	-0.1	209/259/340	131	262	17	3	27%	5%	67	-0.3

Mike Brosseau

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps