Emmanuel Rivera

3B Norfolk Tides

Age 31 R/R 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	315	.290/.377/.452	7	3	111	—	.284/.341/.500
2023	27	MLBARI	283	.261/.319/.358	4	1	87	0.6
2024	28	INTLPuerto Rico	226	.211/.281/.309	3	5	68	—
2024	28	MLBBAL	302	.238/.318/.343	5	2	84	0.2
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	426	.317/.387/.376	1	5	99	—	.262/.310/.310
2025	29	MLBBAL	127	.250/.291/.283	0	1	63	-0.1
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBBAL	24	.239/.298/.326	0	0	75	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBBAL	70	.232/.290/.312	1	0	69	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Avg EV56

xwOBA51

Barrel%32

Bat Spd22

Speed17

CompsRobert Andino (age 30) · Gregorio Petit (age 31) · Phillip Evans (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7875vR 65

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .298 / .326

PA24

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP302

ISO45

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

xAVG

520.253

POWER45

Barrel%

325.9

Avg EV

5689.6

Bat Spd

2268.3

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1725.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 429 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

163

266

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

301

274

◀L

ISO

104

072

◀◀L

BABIP

311

295

◀L

20.9%

22.2%

◀L

BB%

8.6%

6.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	—	140	115	20	5	0	0	23	32	1	9	4	174	317	217	534	43	241	23	16	263	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	243	217	54	13	4	2	21	44	2	7	3	249	321	373	694	124	299	18	9	309	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	122	109	36	7	1	0	12	11	0	1	1	330	397	413	810	83	364	9	10	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	Lexington Legends	—	508	464	144	27	5	12	31	87	10	8	10	310	366	468	834	157	359	17	6	368	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	58	48	10	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	208	333	250	583	42	222	7	14	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	411	375	105	25	6	6	29	59	3	3	2	280	337	427	763	147	315	14	7	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK	AZL Royals	—	27	26	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	192	222	269	491	77	250	22	4	220	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	102	97	25	4	0	1	5	11	0	0	0	258	294	330	624	72	282	11	5	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	534	496	128	18	2	7	25	77	5	6	2	258	300	345	645	87	289	14	5	287	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	159	144	43	5	2	3	10	17	3	2	2	299	357	424	780	125	320	11	6	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	98	90	23	4	0	1	8	21	0	2	0	256	316	333	650	78	324	21	8	297	89	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	282	255	73	17	2	19	22	58	3	3	0	286	350	592	942	306	300	21	8	404	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	267	353	267	620		333	22	11	279	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	52	45	13	2	1	1	4	6	3	1	0	289	385	444	829	156	316	12	8	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	330	77	16	3	12	23	83	5	1	2	233	293	409	702	176	275	23	6	311	93	-3	-1	+3	+2	+8	1.0
2022	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	85	75	23	5	1	3	10	16	0	1	0	307	388	520	908	213	357	19	12	399	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	183	175	55	9	0	0	7	20	1	2	1	314	344	366	710	51	355	11	4	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	283	257	67	13	0	4	22	56	0	1	0	261	319	358	677	97	313	20	8	303	87	-4	+0	+1	+2	+6	0.6
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	129	112	37	9	3	5	12	18	2	1	0	330	405	598	1.003	268	348	14	9	424	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	186	160	42	6	1	2	22	20	2	2	1	263	359	350	709	87	286	11	12	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	302	265	63	9	2	5	26	69	5	2	0	238	318	343	661	106	296	23	9	296	84	-6	+0	-1	+2	+7	0.2
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	226	204	43	11	0	3	17	32	3	5	0	211	281	309	590	98	234	14	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	127	120	30	4	0	0	6	24	1	1	0	250	291	283	575	33	312	19	5	264	63	-6	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.1
2025	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	246	222	66	8	1	1	19	50	4	3	0	297	363	356	719	59	378	20	8	329	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	180	156	54	9	0	0	20	20	0	2	1	346	420	404	824	58	386	11	11	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1169	1062	260	46	5	22	85	253	11	7	2	245	307	360	667	115	299	22	7	299	89	-16	+1	+2	+10	+25	2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	140	124	16	4	0	0	14	46	1	9	4	129	223	161	384	32	203	33	10	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	—	243	225	44	10	3	2	13	62	2	7	3	196	246	293	539	98	251	26	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	508	476	137	23	4	9	19	118	10	8	10	288	329	410	738	122	359	23	4	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	411	388	97	21	5	7	16	83	3	3	2	250	285	384	669	134	294	20	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	27	26	4	0	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	154	185	231	416	77	195	33	4	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	534	504	106	15	2	6	17	98	5	6	2	210	243	284	527	73	240	18	3	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	98	90	23	4	0	1	8	21	0	2	0	256	316	333	650	78	324	21	8	300	89	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	282	261	62	15	2	13	16	71	3	3	0	238	289	460	749	222	273	25	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	16	4	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	250	294	250	544		321	28	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	330	75	14	2	13	23	83	5	1	2	227	288	400	688	173	275	23	6	306	93	-3	-1	+3	+2	+8	1.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	85	78	20	4	1	2	7	20	0	1	0	256	318	410	728	154	332	24	8	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	283	257	66	12	0	4	22	56	0	1	0	257	315	350	666	93	313	20	8	297	87	-4	+0	+1	+2	+6	0.6
2023	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	129	116	33	7	3	4	8	23	2	1	0	284	341	500	841	216	297	18	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	302	265	62	8	2	5	26	69	5	2	0	234	314	336	650	102	296	23	9	293	84	-6	+0	-1	+2	+7	0.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	127	120	30	4	0	0	6	24	1	1	0	250	291	283	575	33	312	19	5	262	63	-6	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	246	229	60	6	1	1	12	62	4	3	0	262	310	310	620	48	352	25	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	140	124	16	4	0	0	14	46	1	9	4	129	223	161	384	32	205	33	10	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	—	140	115	20	5	0	0	23	32	1	9	4	174	317	217	534	43	241	23	16	263	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	365	339	64	14	4	2	20	94	2	8	4	189	238	271	510	83	251	26	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	365	326	90	20	5	2	33	55	2	8	4	276	346	387	733	110	322	15	9	327	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	566	529	153	26	5	10	22	131	11	8	10	289	331	414	745	125	365	23	4	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	566	512	154	29	5	12	39	91	11	8	10	301	363	447	810	146	344	16	7	359	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	540	513	124	26	7	9	20	113	3	3	2	242	274	372	647	131	291	21	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	540	498	135	29	7	7	35	76	3	3	2	271	323	400	722	129	305	14	6	320	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	693	653	137	19	2	8	22	127	8	8	4	210	245	282	526	72	246	18	3	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	693	640	171	23	4	10	35	94	8	8	4	267	313	362	676	95	297	14	5	301	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	450	413	102	22	2	16	28	109	6	6	0	247	304	426	730	179	296	24	6	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	450	405	113	23	3	21	36	89	6	6	0	279	347	506	853	227	309	20	8	372	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	627	578	136	26	5	21	42	146	6	4	3	235	294	407	701	171	279	23	7	309	95	-3	-0	+3	+2	+14	1.6
2022	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	627	580	155	30	4	15	40	119	6	4	3	267	321	410	731	143	313	19	6	326	95	-3	-0	+3	+2	+14	1.6
2023	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	598	542	141	27	4	11	43	114	4	4	1	260	319	386	705	125	305	19	7	312	97	-2	+0	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	598	529	146	28	4	11	56	94	4	4	1	276	350	406	756	130	312	16	9	335	97	-2	+0	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	467	108	15	3	9	45	121	8	7	0	231	310	334	644	103	288	23	9	293	84	-10	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.4
2024	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	528	469	106	20	2	8	43	101	8	7	0	226	302	328	630	102	267	19	8	285	84	-10	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.4
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	553	516	133	15	2	1	27	127	5	6	1	258	301	300	601	43	336	23	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	553	498	150	21	1	1	45	94	5	6	1	301	365	353	718	52	365	17	8	327	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	140	124	16	4	0	0	14	46	1	9	4	129	223	161	384	32	203	33	10	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	365	340	64	14	4	2	20	94	2	8	4	188	238	271	509	82	251	26	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	566	528	153	26	5	10	22	131	11	8	10	290	331	415	746	125	359	23	4	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	540	512	124	26	7	9	20	113	3	3	2	242	274	373	647	131	288	21	4	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	693	658	137	19	2	8	22	127	8	8	4	208	245	280	524	71	240	18	3	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	450	413	102	22	2	16	28	109	6	6	0	247	304	426	730	179	288	24	6	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	627	574	136	26	5	21	42	146	6	4	3	237	294	409	703	172	286	23	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	598	546	141	27	4	11	43	114	4	4	1	258	319	383	702	125	308	19	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	470	108	15	3	9	45	121	8	7	0	230	310	332	642	102	296	23	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	553	516	133	15	2	1	27	127	5	6	1	258	301	300	601	43	339	23	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	470	108	15	3	9	45	121	8	7	0	230	310	332	642	102	296	23	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	553	516	133	15	2	1	27	127	5	6	1	258	301	300	601	43	339	23	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BAL	10%	387	354	84	12	2	5	25	89	5	4	1	236	295	320	615	85	298	23	6	279	75	-12	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	239	298	326	624	87	302	25	8	283	75	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BAL	27%	258	237	55	8	1	3	16	60	3	1	1	229	287	306	594	77	293	23	6	270	69	-10	-0	-3	+1	+6	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	BAL	27%	70	65	15	2	0	1	4	16	1	0	0	232	290	312	602	79	297	23	6	273	69	-3	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1239	1127	275	48	5	23	89	269	12	7	2	244	306	357	663	113	298	22	7	298	74	-19	+1	+1	+10	+27	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	144	25	3	12	47	141	6	4	1	244	306	357	663	113	298	22	7	298	74	-10	+0	+0	+5	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5643	5205	1241	216	36	96	322	1259	61	70	32	238	291	349	640	111	294	22	6	277	74	-33	+1	-1	+12	+36	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	143	25	4	11	37	145	7	8	4	238	291	348	639	110	293	22	6	277	74	-13	+0	-0	+5	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 246 PAwOBA .322 → .276 (−46)K% 20.3% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.33%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	25.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.72%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.92%
HBP% /PA	1.63%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.50%
Singles /BIP	32.56%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.993	×0.982	30.77%
Doubles /BIP	4.65%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.993	×0.982	3.85%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.993	×0.982	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	0.58%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .322 → .276; ISO .059 → .048; BABIP .378 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 129 PAwOBA .423 → .344 (−78)K% 14.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.87%
HBP% /PA	1.55%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.46%
Singles /BIP	21.28%	÷1.026	×0.930	×0.999	×1.003	19.33%
Doubles /BIP	9.57%	÷1.059	×0.830	×0.999	×1.003	7.52%
Triples /BIP	3.19%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.999	×1.003	2.70%
Home runs /BIP	5.32%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .423 → .344; ISO .268 → .207; BABIP .348 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 85 PAwOBA .389 → .324 (−64)K% 18.8% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.82%	÷0.957	×1.200	—	—	23.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	23.23%
Doubles /BIP	8.47%	÷1.041	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	7.22%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.018	1.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.08%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .389 → .324; ISO .213 → .165; BABIP .357 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 282 PAwOBA .395 → .321 (−74)K% 20.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.57%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.80%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.61%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.03%
Singles /BIP	17.77%	÷1.056	×0.930	×1.041	×1.033	16.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.63%	÷0.978	×0.830	×1.041	×1.033	7.88%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷0.936	×0.920	×1.041	×1.033	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	9.64%	÷1.027	×0.700	—	×1.033	6.79%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .395 → .321; ISO .306 → .230; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 18 PAwOBA .288 → .271 (−17)K% 22.2% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	26.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.998	7.74%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷0.980	×0.940	—	×0.998	34.80%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.117	×0.870	—	×0.998	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.780	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .288 → .271; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 534 PAwOBA .282 → .231 (−51)K% 14.4% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.42%	÷0.962	×1.220	—	—	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.49%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.23%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.84%
Singles /BIP	24.11%	÷1.083	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	19.98%
Doubles /BIP	4.30%	÷0.986	×0.840	×0.950	×1.027	3.57%
Triples /BIP	0.48%	÷1.091	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷0.901	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.52%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .282 → .231; ISO .087 → .075; BABIP .289 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 411 PAwOBA .329 → .290 (−39)K% 14.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.36%	÷1.010	×1.420	—	—	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.57%	÷1.077	×0.630	—	×1.012	3.89%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.64%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷1.021	×0.940	×1.030	×1.012	20.66%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.030	×1.012	6.82%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷0.965	×0.800	×1.030	×1.012	1.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.90%	÷0.773	×0.900	—	×1.012	2.24%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 93, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .329 → .290; ISO .147 → .139; BABIP .315 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Royals · 27 PAwOBA .214 → .144 (−70)K% 22.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.70%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	2.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	15.99%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Triples /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	3.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .214 → .144; ISO .077 → .048; BABIP .250 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	3.7	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
/162	664	7	12	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#2Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ramon Martinez'98-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,206 PA	3.3	2,206	29	10	252*	308*	353*	+12	-5	1.9	2.8
/162	664	9	3	+3.6	-1.4	0.6	pk7: 4
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.9	1,263	23	8	244	303	357	+5	+3	1.8	1.9
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+1.7	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Emmanuel Rivera (OGILVIE)	31	50	45	40	45	234/292/317	84	298	3	3	23%	6%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robert Andino 2014 · MLB	30	46→54	40→45	43→50	46	222/278/310	87	287	7	8	24%	7%	67	-1.1	204/245/303	99	264	10	6	26%	5%	53	-2.1	193/229/294	101	250	11	4	27%	4%	42	-1.8
✕Gregorio Petit 2016 · MLB	31	47→56	41→45	40→50	41	229/261/330	101	273	9	4	20%	4%	65	-1.2	225/260/317	92	280	6	7	21%	4%	61	-1.5	225/260/299	74	282	4	7	21%	4%	56	-1.0
✕Phillip Evans 2024 · MLB	31	48→57	41→45	42→40	51	234/302/327	93	273	9	4	18%	8%	80	-0.1	225/290/328	103	273	11	7	21%	8%	76	-0.4	183/244/252	69	222	10	3	22%	7%	40	-1.0
✕Phil Gosselin 2020 · MLB	31	47→57	43→45	43→45	47	228/285/341	113	284	10	4	23%	7%	77	-0.3	243/300/362	119	307	12	6	23%	7%	87	+0.4	243/295/349	107	309	10	6	24%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Jose Castaneda 2015 · AAA	30	45→48	41→45	39→40	42	222/268/316	95	273	9	5	22%	5%	65	-1.2	204/257/306	102	276	11	8	29%	6%	59	-1.7	155/214/237	82	213	12	3	33%	6%	24	-1.3
✕Taylor Davis 2021 · MLB	31	45→53	41→45	44→40	49	221/282/312	92	263	10	5	20%	8%	70	-0.9	221/280/300	79	264	7	6	18%	7%	65	-1.2	216/273/258	42	257	2	0	16%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Nevin Ashley 2016 · MLB	31	46→50	42→45	43→45	43	225/283/328	103	289	9	4	25%	6%	74	-0.6	223/291/341	118	297	12	6	28%	7%	80	-0.2	191/276/300	109	258	12	2	29%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Kevin Flores 2016 · AAA	31	52→49	40	38→45	43	250/290/338	88	299	7	4	19%	4%	78	-0.3	223/269/294	71	276	4	6	20%	5%	60	-1.6	205/251/245	40	260	1	4	20%	4%	39	-1.2
✕Erik González 2022 · MLB	30	45→55	41→45	44→50	41	219/256/316	97	272	8	8	23%	4%	60	-1.6	228/266/306	78	302	5	8	25%	5%	61	-1.5	226/261/293	67	303	4	7	26%	4%	53	-1.7
✕Joe McEwing 2004 · MLB	31	48→52	40→45	46→50	46	233/289/326	93	280	8	9	20%	6%	75	-0.5	234/274/314	80	283	7	12	19%	5%	66	-1.1	241/270/315	74	288	7	16	19%	3%	63	-0.6
✕Ed Lucas 2014 · MLB	32	47→55	42→45	43→50	43	230/278/329	99	287	9	5	23%	6%	72	-0.7	233/282/312	79	305	6	4	24%	6%	69	-0.9	220/269/285	65	294	4	2	25%	6%	55	-1.2
✕Jorge Velandia 2006 · MLB	31	48→51	39→40	43→45	48	230/285/324	94	268	6	6	17%	6%	73	-0.6	228/269/320	92	283	8	9	21%	5%	65	-1.2	220/262/302	82	277	7	8	23%	5%	56	-1.5
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2017 · AAA	30	50→55	39→40	39→55	44	241/280/328	86	278	7	8	16%	4%	72	-0.7	232/278/340	108	275	10	9	19%	5%	74	-0.6	221/262/307	86	261	8	5	18%	4%	57	-0.6
✕Darwin Barney 2017 · MLB	31	50→57	41→40	44→50	47	241/288/339	98	272	9	7	15%	6%	77	-0.3	235/284/346	111	273	11	11	18%	6%	78	-0.3	227/270/321	94	264	10	12	18%	5%	67	-0.7
✕Steve Holm 2011 · MLB	31	44	42→50	39→40	46	215/279/326	111	261	9	4	21%	6%	72	-0.7	195/259/292	97	252	8	6	25%	7%	57	-1.8	143/204/187	44	198	2	0	27%	6%	11	-1.7
✕Mike Edwards 2007 · MLB	30	49	41→45	45	47	233/284/333	99	270	7	8	17%	6%	74	-0.5	228/277/335	107	269	9	11	18%	6%	72	-0.7	222/261/309	87	260	5	13	16%	4%	59	-0.5
✕Angel Chavez 2012 · AAA	31	47→54	40→45	45→50	44	229/267/318	89	265	8	7	17%	5%	64	-1.3	240/300/340	100	278	10	9	17%	8%	82	-0.0	248/311/325	77	281	9	7	15%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Fernando Rios 2010 · AAA	31	50	38→40	41→50	50	236/293/312	76	269	5	9	14%	7%	73	-0.6	236/288/320	84	273	7	8	16%	6%	73	-0.6	246/291/300	54	272	5	3	11%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Ramiro Pena 2016 · MLB	31	51→55	40→45	38→50	46	243/283/338	95	277	8	4	16%	5%	75	-0.5	243/286/351	108	285	9	8	18%	5%	79	-0.2	258/290/371	114	289	11	7	15%	3%	85	+0.1
✕Ronny Cedeno 2014 · MLB	31	50→60	41→45	43→50	44	241/289/346	105	303	8	7	23%	6%	79	-0.2	228/270/320	92	282	7	8	21%	5%	66	-1.1	220/256/295	75	271	5	7	20%	4%	52	-1.1

Emmanuel Rivera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps