Emmanuel Rivera — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Rivera3B Norfolk Tides

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA HR +8%BB -5% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.6 · 2026

wRC+†vL 8983vR 68

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .306 / .341

PA350

HR5

K%22

BB%7

xwOBA.267

Barrel%1.0%

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

45→45

SPD

40→40

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	140	124	16	4	0	0	14	46	1	9	4	.129	.223	.161	.384	.032	.205	33	10	.183	-2	-16	+0	+0	+0	+4	-1.2
2016	20	ROK	2 teams	365	339	65	15	4	2	20	94	2	8	4	.192	.241	.277	.518	.086	.255	26	5	.234	37	-26	+0	+0	+1	+10	-1.5
2017	21	A	2 teams	566	532	145	24	4	11	19	128	11	8	10	.273	.311	.395	.706	.122	.338	23	3	.306	92	-5	-2	+0	+2	+16	1.1
2018	22	A+	3 teams	540	513	123	26	7	9	20	113	3	3	2	.240	.272	.370	.643	.131	.289	21	4	.278	71	-18	-0	+0	+2	+15	-0.1
2019	23	AA	2 teams	693	654	132	18	2	9	21	135	8	8	4	.202	.236	.277	.512	.075	.238	19	3	.225	30	-55	+0	+0	+2	+20	-3.3
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	.263	.341	.461	.802	.197	.288	18	9	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
2021	25	AAA	4 teams	450	413	101	21	2	18	28	109	6	6	0	.245	.302	.436	.738	.191	.287	24	6	.316	100	+0	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.4
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	627	578	140	27	6	22	42	145	6	4	3	.242	.300	.424	.724	.182	.286	23	7	.316	100	-0	-0	+3	+2	+18	2.3
2023	27	MLB	3 teams	598	541	140	28	3	11	44	116	4	4	1	.259	.319	.383	.702	.124	.305	19	7	.306	93	-5	+0	+1	+2	+17	1.6
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	528	467	112	18	4	8	45	121	8	7	0	.240	.317	.347	.664	.107	.301	23	9	.298	86	-8	+1	-1	+2	+15	0.9
2025	29	AAA	3 teams	553	516	135	15	2	1	27	127	5	6	1	.262	.305	.304	.609	.043	.341	23	5	.275	69	-19	+1	-0	+2	+16	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	BAL	350	318	78	12	2	5	25	76	4	3	1	.245	.308	.343	.651	.097	.304	22	7	.294	83	-7	+0	+1	+1	+10	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	BAL	365	332	80	12	2	5	26	81	4	2	0	.241	.304	.334	.638	.093	.302	22	7	.291	81	-8	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.3
2028	32	MLB 33%	BAL	346	314	75	11	2	5	25	79	4	0	0	.239	.303	.334	.638	.096	.301	23	7	.286	77	-9	+0	-2	+1	+10	-0.0
2029	33	MLB 43%	BAL	316	288	67	10	1	4	22	74	3	0	0	.233	.294	.316	.610	.083	.299	23	7	.280	73	-10	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
2030	34	MLB 52%	BAL	272	248	56	8	1	3	19	66	3	0	0	.226	.289	.302	.591	.077	.298	24	7	.274	68	-10	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6796	6253	1485	255	42	116	405	1526	73	71	31	.237	.292	.347	.639	.110	.293	22	6	.279	72	-218	+2	-7	+24	+193	-0.7
/ 162G	—			650	598	142	24	4	11	39	146	7	7	3	.237	.292	.346	.638	.109	.294	22	6	.279	72	-21	+0	-1	+2	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	140	115	20	5	0	0	23	32	1	9	4	.174	.317	.217	.534	.043	.241	23	16	.263	59	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2016	20	ROK	Burlington Royals	243	217	54	13	4	2	21	44	2	7	3	.249	.321	.373	.694	.124	.299	18	9	.309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2016	20	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	122	109	36	7	1	0	12	11	0	1	1	.330	.397	.413	.810	.083	.364	9	10	.363	136	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2017	21	A	Lexington Legends	508	464	144	27	5	12	31	87	10	8	10	.310	.366	.468	.834	.157	.359	17	6	.368	140	+23	-2	—	—	+14	3.6
2017	21	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	58	48	10	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	.208	.333	.250	.583	.042	.222	7	14	.278	71	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2018	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	411	375	105	25	6	6	29	59	3	3	2	.280	.337	.427	.763	.147	.315	14	7	.336	116	+7	-0	—	—	+12	1.9
2018	22	ROK	AZL Royals	27	26	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	.192	.222	.269	.491	.077	.250	22	4	.220	26	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	102	97	25	4	0	1	5	11	0	0	0	.258	.294	.330	.624	.072	.282	11	5	.282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2019	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	534	496	128	18	2	7	25	77	5	6	2	.258	.300	.345	.645	.087	.289	14	5	.287	78	-13	+0	—	—	+15	0.2
2019	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	159	144	43	5	2	3	10	17	3	2	2	.299	.357	.424	.780	.125	.320	11	6	.346	123	+4	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	.263	.341	.461	.802	.197	.288	18	9	.347	124	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	98	90	23	4	0	1	8	21	0	2	0	.256	.316	.333	.650	.078	.324	21	8	.297	85	-2	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	282	255	73	17	2	19	22	58	3	3	0	.286	.350	.592	.942	.306	.300	21	8	.404	167	+21	+1	—	—	+8	3.1
2021	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	.267	.353	.267	.620	.000	.333	22	11	.279	71	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	52	45	13	2	1	1	4	6	3	1	0	.289	.385	.444	.829	.156	.316	12	8	.373	144	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	359	330	77	16	3	12	23	83	5	1	2	.233	.293	.409	.702	.176	.275	23	6	.311	96	-1	-1	+3	+2	+10	1.4
2022	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	85	75	23	5	1	3	10	16	0	1	0	.307	.388	.520	.908	.213	.357	19	12	.399	164	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	183	175	55	9	0	0	7	20	1	2	1	.314	.344	.366	.710	.051	.355	11	4	.321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	283	257	67	13	0	4	22	56	0	1	0	.261	.319	.358	.677	.097	.313	20	8	.303	90	-3	+0	+1	+2	+8	0.9
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	129	112	37	9	3	5	12	18	2	1	0	.330	.405	.598	1.003	.268	.348	14	9	.424	183	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
2023	27	INTL	Puerto Rico	186	160	42	6	1	2	22	20	2	2	1	.263	.359	.350	.709	.087	.286	11	12	.323	106	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	302	265	63	9	2	5	26	69	5	2	0	.238	.318	.343	.661	.106	.296	23	9	.296	85	-5	+0	-1	+2	+9	0.5
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	226	204	43	11	0	3	17	32	3	5	0	.211	.281	.309	.590	.098	.234	14	8	.268	64	-9	+1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	127	120	30	4	0	0	6	24	1	1	0	.250	.291	.283	.575	.033	.312	19	5	.264	61	-6	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.0
2025	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	246	222	66	8	1	1	19	50	4	3	0	.297	.363	.356	.719	.059	.378	20	8	.329	110	+3	+1	—	—	+7	1.0
2025	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	180	156	54	9	0	0	20	20	0	2	1	.346	.420	.404	.824	.058	.386	11	11	.368	140	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1169	1062	260	46	5	22	85	253	11	7	2	.245	.307	.360	.667	.115	.299	22	7	.299	87	-17	+1	+2	+10	+33	2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Emmanuel Rivera (OGILVIE)	30	50	45	40	45	.243/.306/.341	.098	.304	5	3	22%	7%	83	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→53	44→45	46→45	43	.235/.283/.350	.115	.290	12	6	23%	6%	76	+0.0	.223/.277/.353	.130	.291	15	12	28%	6%	74	-0.1	.202/.262/.323	.120	.262	15	14	28%	7%	56	-0.5
✕Chris Nelson 2015 · MLB	29	50→58	43→50	43→50	44	.243/.295/.351	.108	.309	10	6	24%	6%	81	+0.4	.216/.264/.312	.096	.265	9	6	21%	5%	57	-1.2	.196/.236/.276	.080	.235	6	3	19%	4%	32	-1.1
✕Gregorio Petit 2015 · MLB	30	50→54	42→45	39→50	42	.242/.280/.345	.103	.292	9	4	20%	4%	72	-0.2	.233/.268/.334	.101	.287	8	5	21%	4%	64	-0.8	.236/.272/.313	.078	.295	4	7	21%	4%	57	-0.6
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2014 · AAA	30	47	42→45	41→45	46	.228/.305/.333	.105	.297	10	7	25%	8%	82	+0.5	.217/.279/.326	.109	.281	11	6	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.192/.248/.279	.087	.239	11	0	24%	5%	43	-0.6
✕Phillip Evans 2023 · MLB	30	44→54	42→45	42→40	48	.218/.282/.320	.103	.257	11	4	20%	7%	68	-0.5	.234/.305/.335	.101	.277	11	4	19%	8%	82	+0.5	.240/.319/.331	.091	.286	10	2	18%	9%	86	+0.5
●Joshua Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	30	49→55	43→50	44→50	45	.235/.295/.346	.112	.307	10	7	26%	7%	79	+0.3	.224/.287/.353	.129	.299	14	8	28%	8%	79	+0.3	.222/.284/.358	.135	.296	17	4	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Ryan Rohlinger 2014 · AAA	30	45→47	41→50	41→40	49	.219/.290/.317	.097	.263	9	5	20%	8%	70	-0.3	.205/.270/.292	.087	.240	8	4	18%	7%	56	-1.3	.179/.249/.250	.071	.202	7	0	15%	7%	34	-1.6
✕Jantzen Witte 2019 · AAA	29	49→53	42→45	44→45	44	.234/.292/.344	.109	.304	9	7	25%	7%	78	+0.2	.240/.291/.359	.119	.311	12	8	26%	6%	81	+0.4	.231/.283/.359	.128	.295	15	7	26%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Alejandro Gonzalez 2016 · AAA	30	48→50	43→45	43→50	44	.235/.303/.345	.109	.302	11	6	25%	6%	83	+0.6	.234/.286/.331	.097	.327	8	6	29%	5%	72	-0.2	.237/.296/.341	.104	.325	7	12	27%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Phil Gosselin 2020 · MLB	31	47→57	42→45	43→45	46	.229/.284/.337	.108	.287	9	5	23%	7%	72	-0.2	.245/.302/.366	.121	.309	12	6	23%	7%	88	+0.9	.244/.298/.354	.110	.311	11	6	24%	6%	80	+0.1
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	39→30	47	.233/.299/.350	.117	.289	13	3	24%	8%	83	+0.6	.239/.318/.393	.154	.299	18	5	25%	9%	102	+1.9	.216/.315/.356	.139	.285	17	0	28%	11%	84	+0.3
✕Luis Martinez 2015 · MLB	30	47→57	40	42→40	44	.224/.279/.319	.096	.283	6	3	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.209/.268/.291	.082	.270	5	5	23%	7%	54	-1.4	.188/.252/.235	.047	.248	2	1	23%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Brian Barden 2011 · MLB	30	50	43→45	40→45	43	.243/.293/.352	.109	.305	10	6	23%	6%	80	+0.4	.256/.304/.371	.115	.317	10	6	22%	6%	89	+1.0	.260/.310/.359	.099	.315	8	2	19%	5%	87	+0.4
✕Rob Johnson 2011 · MLB	29	47→52	42→45	41→50	51	.226/.296/.335	.110	.273	8	5	20%	8%	77	+0.1	.207/.274/.317	.110	.259	10	7	23%	8%	63	-0.8	.194/.249/.297	.103	.237	11	5	23%	6%	43	-0.8
✕Mike Edwards 2007 · MLB	30	49	41→45	45	47	.237/.287/.338	.101	.274	8	8	17%	6%	74	-0.1	.232/.279/.337	.105	.273	8	11	18%	6%	70	-0.3	.231/.271/.321	.091	.270	6	13	16%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Jose Castaneda 2015 · AAA	30	46→49	43→45	40	41	.227/.273/.331	.104	.280	11	5	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.209/.260/.320	.111	.276	13	7	28%	6%	59	-1.1	.165/.226/.263	.098	.223	15	3	33%	6%	26	-1.1
✕Luis Maza 2010 · MLB	30	56→48	41→45	43→40	46	.268/.313/.369	.101	.309	7	4	16%	5%	92	+1.2	.230/.278/.318	.088	.272	7	6	17%	6%	65	-0.7	.192/.246/.233	.041	.232	2	2	17%	6%	27	-1.3
✕Juan Castro 2002 · MLB	30	47	43→50	41→40	47	.229/.274/.338	.109	.262	10	3	17%	6%	68	-0.5	.235/.280/.358	.123	.270	13	4	18%	6%	76	+0.1	.245/.277/.374	.129	.274	12	2	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Matt Szczur 2019 · MLB	30	48→56	45	44→55	54	.232/.314/.358	.127	.282	11	8	21%	10%	92	+1.2	.229/.295/.382	.153	.279	17	7	23%	8%	89	+1.0	.205/.256/.374	.169	.241	22	0	25%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Ronny Cedeno 2014 · MLB	31	50→57	41→45	42→50	45	.241/.293/.346	.105	.302	7	6	22%	6%	78	+0.2	.235/.279/.331	.096	.291	8	8	21%	5%	68	-0.5	.231/.268/.311	.079	.284	5	7	20%	4%	55	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)