Emmanuel Rivera — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Rivera3B Norfolk Tides

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 350 proj PA

wRC+†vL 8983vR 68

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .301 / .331

PA350

HR5

K%22

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

3712.5%

xwOBA

510.309

POWER45

Barrel%

325.9

Avg EV

5689.6

Bat Spd

2268.3

EYE45

Chase%

4632.6%

SPEED40

Sprint

1725.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 429 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

163

266

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

301

274

◀L

ISO

104

072

◀◀L

BABIP

311

295

◀L

20.9%

22.2%

◀L

BB%

8.6%

6.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	—	140	124	16	4	0	0	14	46	1	9	4	129	223	161	384	32	205	33	10	183	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	—	140	115	20	5	0	0	23	32	1	9	4	174	317	217	534	43	241	23	16	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	2 teams	—	365	339	65	15	4	2	20	94	2	8	4	192	241	277	518	86	255	26	5	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	2 teams	—	365	326	90	20	5	2	33	55	2	8	4	276	346	387	733	110	322	15	9	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	566	531	158	26	4	9	20	132	11	8	10	298	336	412	749	115	378	23	4	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	566	512	154	29	5	12	39	91	11	8	10	301	363	447	810	146	344	16	7	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	3 teams	—	540	514	125	26	7	12	19	112	3	3	2	243	274	391	665	148	287	21	4	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	3 teams	—	540	498	135	29	7	7	35	76	3	3	2	271	323	400	722	129	305	14	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	693	654	128	19	2	10	21	139	8	8	4	196	230	277	507	81	230	20	3	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	693	640	171	23	4	10	35	94	8	8	4	267	313	362	676	95	297	14	5	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	4 teams	—	450	413	101	22	2	18	28	111	6	6	0	245	302	438	740	194	289	25	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	4 teams	—	450	405	113	23	3	21	36	89	6	6	0	279	347	506	853	227	309	20	8	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	—	627	578	134	27	5	20	42	147	6	4	3	232	291	400	690	168	277	23	7	305	92	-6	-0	+3	+2	+18	1.7
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	—	627	580	155	30	4	15	40	119	6	4	3	267	321	410	731	143	313	19	6	326	108	+5	-0	+3	+2	+18	2.9
2023	27	MLB	3 teams	—	598	543	139	28	3	11	42	119	4	4	1	256	314	379	693	123	303	20	7	302	89	-7	+0	+1	+2	+17	1.4
2023	27	MLB	3 teams	—	598	529	146	28	4	11	56	94	4	4	1	276	350	406	756	130	312	16	9	335	115	+10	+0	+1	+2	+17	3.2
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	528	467	108	15	4	8	45	121	8	7	0	231	310	332	642	101	290	23	9	286	77	-14	+1	-1	+2	+15	0.4
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	528	469	106	20	2	8	43	101	8	7	0	226	302	328	630	102	267	19	8	285	76	-14	+1	-1	+2	+15	0.3
2025	29	AAA	3 teams	—	553	517	136	15	2	1	26	131	5	6	1	263	305	306	610	43	346	24	5	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	3 teams	—	553	498	150	21	1	1	45	94	5	6	1	301	365	353	718	52	365	17	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	BAL	—	350	319	78	11	2	5	24	78	4	3	1	245	305	339	644	94	304	22	7	288	79	-8	+0	+1	+1	+10	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	BAL	33%	363	331	79	11	2	5	25	82	4	3	1	239	300	329	629	91	301	23	7	284	75	-10	+0	-2	+1	+10	-0.1
2028	32	MLB	BAL	46%	344	314	72	10	1	4	23	80	4	2	1	229	290	306	596	76	297	23	7	277	70	-12	+0	-3	+1	+10	-0.4
2027	31	MLB	BAL	33%	119	109	27	4	1	2	8	27	1	1	0	248	305	358	663	110	305	23	7	279	71	-4	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	32	MLB	BAL	46%	158	144	35	5	1	2	11	37	2	1	0	243	306	333	639	90	301	23	7	272	67	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1446	1315	322	55	7	26	104	317	14	9	2	245	307	357	664	112	301	22	7	294	83	-27	+1	-0	+11	+41	2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	145	25	3	12	47	142	6	4	1	245	307	359	666	113	301	22	7	294	83	-12	+0	-0	+5	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	6204	5720	1359	235	38	108	357	1408	67	74	33	238	290	349	639	111	294	23	6	277	71	-207	+2	-3	+22	+176	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	142	25	4	11	37	148	7	8	3	237	289	347	636	110	294	23	6	277	71	-22	+0	-0	+2	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Royals	—	140	115	20	5	0	0	23	32	1	9	4	174	317	217	534	43	241	23	16	263	59	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2016	20	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	243	217	54	13	4	2	21	44	2	7	3	249	321	373	694	124	299	18	9	309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2016	20	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	122	109	36	7	1	0	12	11	0	1	1	330	397	413	810	83	364	9	10	363	136	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2017	21	A	Lexington Legends	—	508	464	144	27	5	12	31	87	10	8	10	310	366	468	834	157	359	17	6	368	140	+23	-2	—	—	+14	3.6
2017	21	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	58	48	10	2	0	0	8	4	1	0	0	208	333	250	583	42	222	7	14	278	71	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2018	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	411	375	105	25	6	6	29	59	3	3	2	280	337	427	763	147	315	14	7	336	116	+7	-0	—	—	+12	1.9
2018	22	ROK	AZL Royals	—	27	26	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	192	222	269	491	77	250	22	4	220	26	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	102	97	25	4	0	1	5	11	0	0	0	258	294	330	624	72	282	11	5	282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2019	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	534	496	128	18	2	7	25	77	5	6	2	258	300	345	645	87	289	14	5	287	78	-13	+0	—	—	+15	0.2
2019	23	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	159	144	43	5	2	3	10	17	3	2	2	299	357	424	780	125	320	11	6	346	123	+4	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	87	76	20	6	0	3	8	16	1	3	1	263	341	461	802	197	288	18	9	347	124	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	98	90	23	4	0	1	8	21	0	2	0	256	316	333	650	78	324	21	8	297	85	-2	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	282	255	73	17	2	19	22	58	3	3	0	286	350	592	942	306	300	21	8	404	167	+21	+1	—	—	+8	3.1
2021	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	267	353	267	620		333	22	11	279	71	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	52	45	13	2	1	1	4	6	3	1	0	289	385	444	829	156	316	12	8	373	144	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	330	77	16	3	12	23	83	5	1	2	233	293	409	702	176	275	23	6	311	96	-1	-1	+3	+2	+10	1.4
2022	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	85	75	23	5	1	3	10	16	0	1	0	307	388	520	908	213	357	19	12	399	164	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	183	175	55	9	0	0	7	20	1	2	1	314	344	366	710	51	355	11	4	321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	283	257	67	13	0	4	22	56	0	1	0	261	319	358	677	97	313	20	8	303	90	-3	+0	+1	+2	+8	0.9
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	129	112	37	9	3	5	12	18	2	1	0	330	405	598	1.003	268	348	14	9	424	183	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
2023	27	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	186	160	42	6	1	2	22	20	2	2	1	263	359	350	709	87	286	11	12	323	106	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	302	265	63	9	2	5	26	69	5	2	0	238	318	343	661	106	296	23	9	296	85	-5	+0	-1	+2	+9	0.5
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	226	204	43	11	0	3	17	32	3	5	0	211	281	309	590	98	234	14	8	268	64	-9	+1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	127	120	30	4	0	0	6	24	1	1	0	250	291	283	575	33	312	19	5	264	61	-6	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.0
2025	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	246	222	66	8	1	1	19	50	4	3	0	297	363	356	719	59	378	20	8	329	110	+3	+1	—	—	+7	1.0
2025	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	180	156	54	9	0	0	20	20	0	2	1	346	420	404	824	58	386	11	11	368	140	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1169	1062	260	46	5	22	85	253	11	7	2	245	307	360	667	115	299	22	7	299	87	-17	+1	+2	+10	+33	2.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	9	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
	/162	664	9	8	240	310	353	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Abraham O. Nunezlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,389 PA	8	2,389	17	24	246	315	322	+2	+9	2.5	2.7
	/162	664	5	7	246	315	322	+0.5	+2.5	0.7	pk7: 3
#4Chris Woodwardlast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA	9	1,835	33	9	242	299	370	+2	-0	2.2	2.7
	/162	664	12	3	242	299	370	+0.6	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,480	26	9	244	303	353	+5	+4	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	12	4	244	303	353	+2.4	+1.8	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Emmanuel Rivera (OGILVIE)	30	50	45	40	45	240/301/331	91	304	5	3	22%	7%	79	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Nelson 2015 · MLB	29	49→52	42→50	43→50	45	236/290/339	103	300	10	5	24%	7%	76	+0.0	209/257/300	91	257	8	6	21%	5%	51	-1.7	187/228/258	71	226	5	3	20%	4%	24	-1.3
✕Gregorio Petit 2015 · MLB	30	50→55	42→45	38→50	41	242/278/347	105	294	9	4	21%	4%	72	-0.2	232/266/336	104	288	8	5	22%	4%	64	-0.8	232/269/311	79	292	5	7	21%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Phillip Evans 2022 · MLB	29	46→53	43→45	41→40	51	227/306/335	108	276	11	4	21%	9%	82	+0.5	223/288/323	100	265	11	4	19%	7%	71	-0.3	221/286/312	92	260	10	2	19%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Tony Sanchez 2018 · AAA	30	45→49	40→50	40	45	217/281/309	92	281	8	5	25%	7%	65	-0.7	233/285/337	104	313	10	4	27%	5%	73	-0.1	234/284/330	96	316	10	0	28%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Ronny Cedeno 2014 · MLB	31	50→57	42→45	43→50	45	242/294/349	106	305	8	7	23%	6%	79	+0.3	225/268/317	92	280	7	8	22%	5%	60	-1.0	216/252/288	72	268	5	7	21%	4%	42	-1.2
✕Mike Edwards 2007 · MLB	30	49	41→45	45	47	236/287/336	100	274	7	8	17%	6%	73	-0.1	231/279/339	108	273	9	11	18%	6%	71	-0.3	231/271/321	91	270	6	13	16%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Ryan Rohlinger 2014 · AAA	30	46→47	41→50	42→40	49	222/292/320	98	269	9	5	21%	8%	72	-0.2	202/268/289	87	235	8	4	17%	7%	54	-1.4	176/246/246	70	198	7	0	15%	7%	32	-1.7
✕Tony Cruz 2017 · MLB	30	46→38	42→45	42→40	45	226/279/328	102	284	9	5	23%	7%	68	-0.5	218/270/343	125	291	14	5	29%	6%	69	-0.4	214/267/333	119	287	14	0	30%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Danny Mendick 2023 · MLB	29	49	44→45	43→50	46	240/300/357	117	301	12	7	24%	7%	85	+0.7	231/290/367	136	278	15	14	22%	7%	83	+0.6	223/282/357	134	264	16	15	22%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Alejandro Gonzalez 2016 · AAA	30	46→49	42→45	43→50	42	225/289/323	99	293	10	6	26%	6%	72	-0.2	225/275/317	92	320	7	7	30%	4%	63	-0.8	227/286/327	99	313	7	12	28%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Jose Castaneda 2015 · AAA	30	46→50	44→45	40	42	228/273/336	108	276	12	5	22%	5%	68	-0.5	206/259/319	113	277	13	8	30%	6%	57	-1.2	160/222/256	96	220	15	3	34%	6%	23	-1.2
✕Nevin Ashley 2016 · MLB	31	46→51	43→45	42→45	43	224/283/332	108	288	11	4	26%	6%	71	-0.3	228/294/355	127	301	14	6	28%	7%	82	+0.5	212/296/341	129	282	16	2	29%	8%	79	+0.1
✕Juan Castro 2002 · MLB	30	47	42→50	41→40	46	228/272/334	106	262	10	3	17%	6%	66	-0.6	236/280/360	124	271	13	4	18%	6%	76	+0.1	245/277/374	129	274	12	2	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Luis Martinez 2015 · MLB	30	47→57	40	42→40	44	226/281/326	100	286	6	3	22%	6%	69	-0.4	210/267/293	83	274	6	6	24%	6%	54	-1.4	187/248/233	46	249	2	1	24%	7%	27	-1.7
●Joshua Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	30	49→56	43→50	44→50	45	238/297/349	112	313	9	7	26%	7%	82	+0.5	218/282/346	128	296	14	8	29%	8%	74	-0.1	223/283/360	137	300	18	4	31%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2014 · AAA	30	46	43→45	41→45	45	225/301/331	106	297	10	7	26%	7%	79	+0.3	214/276/323	109	276	12	6	26%	6%	66	-0.6	188/248/273	85	235	10	0	24%	5%	41	-0.6
✕Craig Stansberry 2011 · MLB	29	48→47	43→50	44→50	47	234/292/349	114	282	11	9	21%	7%	79	+0.3	224/282/341	117	296	11	14	27%	7%	73	-0.1	195/262/295	100	275	9	18	31%	7%	53	-0.6
✕Ruben Agramon 2015 · AAA	30	54	40→45	41→45	44	257/298/352	95	305	7	5	18%	5%	82	+0.5	238/273/310	72	309	5	6	24%	4%	59	-1.1	232/263/276	44	313	2	4	26%	3%	44	-1.0
✕Robert Andino 2014 · MLB	30	46→53	40→45	43→50	45	221/276/308	87	288	7	8	25%	7%	62	-0.9	207/249/315	108	269	11	6	27%	5%	52	-1.6	202/241/318	117	258	14	4	27%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2017 · AAA	30	50→52	41→40	39→55	43	241/280/335	93	277	8	8	17%	4%	70	-0.3	240/283/359	119	279	12	9	18%	5%	78	+0.2	246/286/356	110	283	10	5	17%	4%	73	-0.0