Dansby Swanson — OGILVIE

Dansby SwansonSS Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 9.273 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION356 act + 257 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 149132vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .325 / .452

PA257

HR11

SB8

K%24

BB%9

BABIP297

ISO200

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 62 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT62

Whiff%

5310.7%

xwOBA

660.327

POWER49

Barrel%

619.9

Avg EV

6290.0

Bat Spd

4771.0

EYE65

Chase%

9022.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

7128.3

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1347 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

300

1047

—

wRC+

147

◀◀L

wOBA

377

297

◀◀L

ISO

218

153

◀◀L

BABIP

363

271

◀◀L

25.0%

—

BB%

8.0%

8.9%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$10M	+1.3	$10M	+$0.1M
2027	Ext	$25M	+3.6	$27M	+$4M
2028	Ext	$25M	+2.6	$18M	-$3M
2029	Ext	$25M	+1.7	$11M	-$8M
Totals		$86M		$66M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	615	558	136	27	4	10	45	136	7	16	3	244	308	360	668	116	303	22	7	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	615	540	152	32	6	12	63	118	7	16	3	281	364	430	794	148	338	19	10	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	2 teams	—	596	528	121	24	2	7	63	131	1	4	3	229	312	322	634	93	289	22	11	275	69	-21	-0	+0	+6	+17	0.2
2017	23	MLB	2 teams	—	596	526	122	24	2	7	65	129	1	4	3	232	318	325	643	93	292	22	11	294	83	-11	-0	+0	+6	+17	1.2
2018	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	533	478	114	25	4	14	44	122	2	10	4	238	305	395	701	157	290	23	8	285	76	-14	+0	+8	+6	+15	1.5
2018	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	533	478	114	25	4	14	44	122	2	10	4	238	305	395	701	157	290	23	8	308	94	-4	+0	+8	+6	+15	2.6
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	545	483	121	26	3	17	51	124	5	10	5	251	328	422	751	172	300	23	9	325	107	+4	+0	+4	+6	+15	3.0
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	545	483	121	26	3	17	51	124	5	10	5	251	328	422	751	172	300	23	9	332	112	+7	+0	+4	+6	+15	3.3
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	264	237	65	15	0	10	22	71	4	5	0	274	346	464	810	190	350	27	8	354	129	+9	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.7
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	264	237	65	15	0	10	22	71	4	5	0	274	346	464	810	190	350	27	8	358	132	+10	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.8
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	653	588	146	33	2	27	52	167	5	9	3	248	315	449	764	201	297	26	8	326	107	+5	+1	+7	+7	+19	3.9
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	653	588	146	33	2	27	52	167	5	9	3	248	315	449	764	201	297	26	8	333	113	+10	+1	+7	+7	+19	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	696	640	177	32	1	25	49	182	3	18	7	277	331	447	778	170	348	26	7	339	118	+14	+1	+19	+7	+20	6.3
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	696	640	177	32	1	25	49	182	3	18	7	277	331	447	778	170	348	26	7	343	121	+16	+1	+19	+7	+20	6.5
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	638	565	137	25	3	21	66	154	5	9	1	242	327	409	736	166	296	24	10	325	107	+5	+1	+18	+7	+18	5.1
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	638	565	138	25	3	22	66	154	5	9	1	244	329	416	745	172	297	24	10	332	113	+9	+1	+18	+7	+18	5.5
2024	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	593	534	128	26	2	16	54	144	2	19	3	240	312	386	698	146	297	24	9	305	92	-5	+3	+16	+6	+17	3.7
2024	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	593	534	129	27	2	16	54	144	2	19	3	242	314	390	703	148	300	24	9	314	99	-1	+3	+16	+6	+17	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	645	590	143	24	3	23	47	168	2	20	3	242	300	410	711	168	297	26	7	308	94	-4	+3	+5	+7	+18	2.9
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	645	590	144	24	3	24	47	168	2	20	3	244	302	417	719	173	298	26	7	316	100	+0	+3	+5	+7	+18	3.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	356	313	66	11	2	16	37	84	1	12	0	211	296	412	708	201	230	24	10	307	93	-3	+2	-0	+4	+10	1.4
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	356	313	66	11	2	16	37	84	1	12	0	211	296	412	708	201	230	24	10	311	96	-2	+2	-0	+4	+10	1.5
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	257	230	58	11	1	11	24	62	1	8	1	252	325	452	778	200	294	24	9	339	117	+5	+1	+2	+3	+7	1.8
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	257	230	58	11	1	11	24	62	1	8	1	252	325	452	778	200	296	24	9	338	117	+5	+1	+2	+3	+7	1.8
FULL	32	MLB	CHC	—	613	543	124	22	3	27	61	146	2	20	1	228	309	429	738	201	259	24	10	320	103	+2	+4	+1	+7	+17	3.2
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	—	613	543	124	22	3	27	61	146	2	20	1	228	309	429	738	201	259	24	10	321	104	+2	+4	+1	+7	+17	3.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	556	497	126	23	2	23	52	138	2	14	2	254	327	447	773	193	303	25	9	339	118	+11	+2	-1	+6	+16	3.5
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	500	449	109	19	2	19	46	127	1	9	1	243	315	421	735	178	296	25	9	329	110	+6	+1	-2	+5	+14	2.5
2029	35	MLB	CHC	100%	444	399	94	16	2	16	41	116	1	6	1	236	308	406	714	170	288	26	9	318	101	+1	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.6
2030	36	MLB	CHC	100%	383	344	78	12	2	13	35	103	1	3	0	227	300	387	687	160	280	27	9	305	92	-3	+1	-4	+4	+11	0.8
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	556	497	126	23	2	23	52	138	2	14	2	254	327	447	773	193	304	25	9	339	118	+11	+2	-1	+6	+16	3.4
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	500	449	111	20	2	20	46	127	1	9	1	247	319	434	753	187	297	25	9	329	110	+6	+1	-2	+5	+14	2.5
2029	35	MLB	CHC	100%	444	399	95	16	2	17	41	116	1	6	1	238	311	416	727	178	289	26	9	317	101	+1	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.6
2030	36	MLB	CHC	100%	383	344	80	13	2	14	35	103	1	3	0	233	305	404	709	172	281	27	9	305	92	-4	+1	-4	+4	+11	0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7403	6651	1656	320	30	249	655	1832	34	146	34	249	319	418	738	169	305	25	9	325	107	+59	+16	+76	+85	+210	45.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	146	28	3	22	58	161	3	13	3	250	321	421	742	171	306	25	9	325	107	+5	+1	+7	+7	+18	4.0
Career	—			—	7918	7120	1753	338	33	252	691	1945	42	160	37	246	317	409	726	163	302	25	9	316	100	-2	+17	+76	+85	+224	40.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	145	28	3	21	57	160	3	13	3	248	318	414	732	166	305	25	9	316	100	-0	+1	+6	+7	+18	3.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	145	129	39	7	1	3	13	34	0	3	0	302	366	442	808	140	383	23	9	353	129	+5	+1	+2	+7	+4	1.8
2016	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	377	333	87	13	5	8	35	71	7	6	2	261	344	402	746	141	309	19	9	335	114	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2016	22	A+	Carolina Mudcats	—	93	78	26	12	0	1	15	13	0	7	1	333	441	526	967	192	391	14	16	427	185	+9	+1	—	—	+3	1.3
2017	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	551	488	113	23	2	6	59	120	0	3	3	232	314	324	638	92	292	22	11	292	81	-12	-1	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2017	23	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	45	38	9	1	0	1	6	9	1	1	0	237	356	342	698	105	286	20	13	325	107	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	533	478	114	25	4	14	44	122	2	10	4	238	305	395	701	157	290	23	8	308	94	-4	+0	+8	+6	+15	2.6
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	545	483	121	26	3	17	51	124	5	10	5	251	328	422	751	172	300	23	9	332	112	+7	+0	+4	+6	+15	3.3
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	264	237	65	15	0	10	22	71	4	5	0	274	346	464	810	190	350	27	8	358	132	+10	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.8
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	653	588	146	33	2	27	52	167	5	9	3	248	315	449	764	201	297	26	8	333	113	+10	+1	+7	+7	+19	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	696	640	177	32	1	25	49	182	3	18	7	277	331	447	778	170	348	26	7	343	121	+16	+1	+19	+7	+20	6.5
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	638	565	138	25	3	22	66	154	5	9	1	244	329	416	745	172	297	24	10	332	113	+9	+1	+18	+7	+18	5.5
2024	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	593	534	129	27	2	16	54	144	2	19	3	242	314	390	703	148	300	24	9	314	99	-1	+3	+16	+6	+17	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	645	590	144	24	3	24	47	168	2	20	3	244	302	417	719	173	298	26	7	316	100	+0	+3	+5	+7	+18	3.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5263	4732	1186	237	21	164	457	1286	28	106	29	251	320	414	734	163	308	24	9	325	107	+41	+10	+85	+62	+149	35.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1J.J. Hardylast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,309 PA	13	6,309	188	8	256	305	408	+68	+163	40.4	35.7
	/162	664	20	1	256	305	408	+7.1	+17.2	4.3	pk7: 31
#2Brandon Crawfordlast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,318 PA	14	6,318	147	47	249	318	395	+68	+142	38.9	34.0
	/162	664	15	5	249	318	395	+7.1	+14.9	4.1	pk7: 29
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	8,115	276	169	248	315	418	+77	+154	37.6	30.3
	/162	664	23	14	248	315	418	+6.3	+12.6	3.1	pk7: 23
#3Juan Uribelast yr '16 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,715 PA	16	6,715	199	48	255	301	418	+33	+116	33.1	29.1
	/162	664	20	5	255	301	418	+3.3	+11.4	3.3	pk7: 25
#4Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#5Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	13	4,082	137	8	246	295	412	+69	+103	27.4	26.2
#5Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	/162	664	22	1	246	295	412	+11.2	+16.8	4.4	pk7: 25
#6Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dansby Swanson (OGILVIE)	32	52→62	45→49	60	65	228/309/429	201	259	27	20	24%	10%	104	+3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Boone 2005 · MLB	32	49→57	54→60	55	51	255/318/440	185	272	22	21	16%	8%	115	+2.7	249/314/386	137	279	15	10	17%	7%	98	+1.6	249/319/376	128	281	14	8	16%	7%	93	+0.8
●Mike Cameron 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	58→60	53→55	54	241/330/453	212	285	25	21	25%	11%	123	+3.3	256/338/462	206	312	22	20	24%	10%	128	+3.7	248/337/456	208	304	23	20	25%	11%	123	+3.4
●Marcus Semien 2023 · MLB	32	47→56	58→65	53→50	51	250/314/459	209	266	26	16	18%	8%	118	+3.0	250/319/425	175	269	21	12	16%	9%	111	+2.5	244/319/406	162	262	20	10	15%	9%	103	+2.2
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	54→55	54→55	49	252/326/430	178	295	22	21	23%	8%	115	+2.8	238/321/403	165	270	19	19	19%	9%	106	+2.2	214/303/391	177	236	21	21	20%	9%	94	+0.6
●Raul Mondesi 2003 · MLB	32	46→52	57→60	51→55	55	245/322/449	205	259	25	20	18%	10%	118	+3.0	251/323/439	188	279	22	15	18%	9%	116	+2.8	254/325/441	187	284	21	15	18%	9%	110	+1.2
●Brian Dozier 2019 · MLB	32	47→56	58→65	50	55	248/332/460	212	272	26	13	20%	11%	125	+3.5	239/330/424	185	276	23	8	22%	11%	115	+2.8	237/340/429	192	271	25	4	22%	13%	117	+2.3
✕Robbie Grossman 2022 · MLB	32	49→58	53→50	53→50	61	248/355/431	182	292	20	17	22%	13%	128	+3.6	229/333/369	140	293	14	9	24%	13%	102	+1.9	217/324/333	116	285	10	5	25%	13%	88	+0.6
✕Steven Souza Jr. 2020 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	54→55	53	237/330/431	194	301	22	14	28%	11%	117	+2.9	230/312/413	183	321	20	11	32%	10%	105	+2.1	217/304/413	196	303	22	9	34%	10%	99	+0.5
✕Justin Ruggiano 2014 · MLB	32	51→61	55→60	48→55	48	261/325/454	193	313	23	20	24%	8%	121	+3.2	244/312/409	165	322	19	13	28%	8%	104	+2.0	232/303/384	152	321	17	10	31%	8%	91	+0.5
●Joe Dillon 2007 · MLB	31	51→53	55	52→45	50	267/341/453	187	296	24	12	19%	8%	128	+3.6	249/322/408	159	275	17	8	16%	9%	108	+2.3	243/323/393	150	268	15	7	15%	9%	104	+1.0
✕Trevor Story 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	53→60	55	48	226/300/405	179	279	21	20	27%	9%	98	+1.6	233/294/394	161	303	19	24	28%	7%	92	+1.2	241/292/393	153	309	20	30	28%	6%	88	+0.5
●Eric Byrnes 2007 · MLB	31	50→57	54→60	55→60	49	258/313/446	189	274	21	18	16%	6%	114	+2.7	257/317/433	176	275	19	27	14%	7%	112	+2.6	253/315/422	168	270	17	30	13%	7%	104	+1.4
●AJ Pollock 2019 · MLB	31	49→59	56→65	56→55	49	254/318/459	205	280	23	19	19%	7%	119	+3.1	273/331/503	230	304	30	12	21%	7%	137	+4.3	288/345/537	248	317	34	10	20%	7%	146	+2.7
✕Jace Peterson 2022 · MLB	32	49→58	50	54→55	55	244/331/405	161	298	18	16	24%	11%	111	+2.5	227/313/357	130	291	13	18	25%	11%	91	+1.1	219/308/336	117	282	11	21	25%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Eli Marrero 2006 · MLB	32	48→49	55	50	49	248/308/440	192	279	22	7	20%	8%	110	+2.4	237/319/436	199	283	24	14	25%	10%	114	+2.7	198/319/427	229	220	32	27	27%	13%	106	+0.4
●Scott Hairston 2012 · MLB	32	46→51	54→60	49→50	49	239/306/421	182	269	22	10	21%	8%	105	+2.1	240/289/449	209	272	27	10	23%	6%	105	+2.1	239/280/472	234	258	32	10	22%	5%	107	+1.0
✕Chris Young 2016 · MLB	32	45→49	53→60	48→55	50	234/305/412	178	267	20	10	21%	9%	102	+1.8	238/314/414	176	281	20	9	22%	9%	106	+2.2	225/309/402	177	266	20	8	23%	10%	99	+0.6
✕Kelly Johnson 2014 · MLB	32	44→54	52→55	50	50	228/306/395	167	279	21	13	26%	10%	98	+1.6	239/305/398	159	289	20	7	24%	8%	98	+1.6	240/304/392	152	286	19	5	22%	8%	92	+0.6
●Torii Hunter 2007 · MLB	32	52→62	58→65	50→55	50	273/333/473	201	292	26	18	17%	8%	130	+3.8	282/340/485	203	309	25	17	17%	8%	135	+4.2	284/355/478	193	317	23	16	17%	9%	133	+3.9
●Tommy Pham 2021 · MLB	33	52→58	53→55	54→55	58	262/353/436	174	305	20	20	21%	12%	128	+3.6	239/329/395	156	295	17	15	24%	11%	108	+2.3	235/324/391	156	291	17	16	24%	11%	101	+1.7