Dansby Swanson — OGILVIE

Dansby SwansonSS Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB BB +5%HR -4% Svc 9.273 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 3.8 · 2026

wRC+†vL 139111vR 82

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .319 / .433

PA578

HR23

SB13

K%25

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

55→55

SPD

60→60

EYE

52↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+3.8	$30M	+$5M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+3.2	$26M	+$1M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+2.5	$21M	-$4M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.7	$15M	-$10M
Totals		$101M		$93M	-$8M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	AA	3 teams	615	559	138	28	5	11	44	141	7	16	3	.247	.310	.374	.684	.127	.309	23	7	.295	84	-11	+2	+2	+7	+17	1.7
2017	23	MLB	2 teams	596	528	121	25	2	7	63	131	1	4	3	.229	.312	.324	.636	.095	.289	22	11	.277	70	-20	-0	+0	+6	+17	0.3
2018	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	533	478	113	26	4	15	44	122	2	10	4	.236	.303	.402	.705	.165	.285	23	8	.286	77	-14	+0	+8	+6	+15	1.6
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	545	483	122	26	3	16	51	124	5	10	5	.253	.330	.418	.748	.166	.305	23	9	.322	105	+3	+0	+4	+6	+15	2.8
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	264	237	62	14	0	10	22	71	4	5	0	.262	.335	.447	.782	.186	.331	27	8	.333	113	+4	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.2
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	653	588	143	32	2	27	52	167	5	9	3	.243	.310	.442	.752	.199	.289	26	8	.321	104	+3	+1	+7	+7	+19	3.6
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	696	640	171	31	1	22	49	182	3	18	7	.267	.322	.422	.744	.155	.339	26	7	.323	106	+4	+1	+19	+7	+20	5.3
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	638	565	138	24	3	22	66	154	5	9	1	.244	.329	.414	.743	.170	.297	24	10	.330	111	+8	+1	+18	+7	+18	5.4
2024	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	593	534	133	29	2	16	54	144	2	19	3	.249	.320	.401	.721	.152	.310	24	9	.316	100	+0	+3	+16	+6	+17	4.3
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	645	590	144	23	2	25	47	168	2	20	3	.244	.302	.417	.719	.173	.296	26	7	.312	97	-2	+3	+5	+7	+18	3.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	105	83	16	1	0	5	19	24	0	1	0	.193	.343	.386	.729	.193	.193	23	18	.320	103	+0	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.5
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	473	418	101	16	2	19	50	116	2	12	2	.242	.326	.426	.751	.184	.286	25	11	.333	113	+7	+2	+5	+5	+13	3.3
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	578	501	117	17	2	24	69	140	2	13	2	.234	.329	.419	.748	.186	.272	24	12	.331	111	+7	+2	+5	+6	+16	3.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	33	MLB	CHC	548	484	116	18	2	22	57	112	2	11	2	.240	.322	.421	.744	.182	.264	20	10	.327	109	+5	+1	+2	+6	+16	3.1
2028	34	MLB	CHC	500	442	104	16	2	19	52	106	2	9	1	.235	.319	.410	.728	.174	.262	21	10	.320	103	+2	+1	+1	+5	+14	2.4
2029	35	MLB	CHC	444	394	89	14	1	16	46	99	1	7	1	.226	.308	.388	.697	.162	.260	22	10	.312	97	-1	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.7
2030	36	MLB	CHC	383	340	74	11	1	13	39	89	1	6	0	.218	.300	.371	.671	.153	.257	23	10	.303	90	-4	+1	-2	+4	+11	1.0
2031	37	MLB	CHC	317	281	60	9	1	10	32	77	1	4	0	.214	.296	.359	.656	.146	.253	24	10	.292	82	-7	+1	-3	+3	+9	0.3
2032	38	MLB	CHC	248	221	45	6	1	7	24	62	1	2	0	.204	.285	.335	.619	.131	.248	25	10	.281	73	-8	+0	-5	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8691	7782	1874	348	34	277	792	2065	46	171	38	.241	.315	.401	.716	.160	.291	24	9	.312	97	-32	+19	+82	+93	+246	41.7
/ 162G	—			650	582	141	26	3	21	59	154	3	13	3	.242	.315	.405	.720	.163	.292	24	9	.312	97	-2	+1	+6	+7	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	145	129	39	7	1	3	13	34	0	3	0	.302	.366	.442	.808	.140	.383	23	9	.353	129	+5	+1	+2	+7	+4	1.8
2016	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	377	333	87	13	5	8	35	71	7	6	2	.261	.344	.402	.746	.141	.309	19	9	.335	114	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2016	22	A+	Carolina Mudcats	93	78	26	12	0	1	15	13	0	7	1	.333	.441	.526	.967	.192	.391	14	16	.427	185	+9	+1	—	—	+3	1.3
2017	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	551	488	113	23	2	6	59	120	0	3	3	.232	.314	.324	.638	.092	.292	22	11	.292	81	-12	-1	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2017	23	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	45	38	9	1	0	1	6	9	1	1	0	.237	.356	.342	.698	.105	.286	20	13	.325	107	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	533	478	114	25	4	14	44	122	2	10	4	.238	.305	.395	.701	.157	.290	23	8	.308	94	-4	+0	+8	+6	+15	2.6
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	545	483	121	26	3	17	51	124	5	10	5	.251	.328	.422	.751	.172	.300	23	9	.332	112	+7	+0	+4	+6	+15	3.3
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	264	237	65	15	0	10	22	71	4	5	0	.274	.346	.464	.810	.190	.350	27	8	.358	132	+10	+1	+6	+3	+7	2.8
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	653	588	146	33	2	27	52	167	5	9	3	.248	.315	.449	.764	.201	.297	26	8	.333	113	+10	+1	+7	+7	+19	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	696	640	177	32	1	25	49	182	3	18	7	.277	.331	.447	.778	.170	.348	26	7	.343	121	+16	+1	+19	+7	+20	6.5
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	638	565	138	25	3	22	66	154	5	9	1	.244	.329	.416	.745	.172	.297	24	10	.332	113	+9	+1	+18	+7	+18	5.5
2024	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	593	534	129	27	2	16	54	144	2	19	3	.242	.314	.390	.703	.148	.300	24	9	.314	99	-1	+3	+16	+6	+17	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	645	590	144	24	3	24	47	168	2	20	3	.244	.302	.417	.719	.173	.298	26	7	.316	100	+0	+3	+5	+7	+18	3.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5263	4732	1186	237	21	164	457	1286	28	106	29	.251	.320	.414	.734	.163	.308	24	9	.325	107	+41	+10	+85	+62	+149	35.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dansby Swanson (OGILVIE)	32	50	55	60	55	.240/.323/.423	.183	.266	23	14	20%	11%	113	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●AJ Pollock 2020 · MLB	32	49→59	57→65	54→55	48	.258/.321/.461	.203	.287	24	16	20%	7%	121	+3.2	.267/.322/.472	.205	.300	26	10	20%	7%	124	+3.4	.267/.319/.458	.191	.298	24	7	19%	6%	116	+1.8
✕Aaron Boone 2005 · MLB	32	49→57	54→60	55	51	.252/.317/.439	.186	.269	22	22	16%	8%	114	+2.7	.249/.313/.389	.140	.278	16	11	17%	7%	98	+1.6	.249/.319/.376	.128	.281	14	8	16%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Joe Dillon 2008 · MLB	32	52→53	55	52→45	53	.268/.335/.463	.195	.284	22	10	15%	8%	128	+3.6	.235/.308/.369	.134	.266	14	8	17%	8%	92	+1.2	.214/.291/.310	.096	.249	10	6	18%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Brian Dozier 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	58→65	50	55	.246/.330/.457	.210	.270	26	13	20%	10%	124	+3.4	.234/.326/.405	.171	.273	21	8	21%	11%	108	+2.3	.231/.335/.400	.169	.268	22	4	22%	13%	108	+1.8
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	53→55	53→55	49	.250/.324/.426	.176	.296	21	21	23%	8%	114	+2.7	.239/.323/.407	.168	.271	19	20	19%	9%	108	+2.3	.217/.308/.392	.175	.241	20	21	20%	9%	96	+0.6
●Marcus Semien 2023 · MLB	32	47→57	58→65	52→50	51	.253/.317/.461	.208	.270	27	16	19%	8%	120	+3.1	.251/.320/.424	.173	.272	20	12	16%	9%	111	+2.5	.244/.319/.398	.154	.264	18	10	15%	9%	100	+1.9
✕Eli Marrero 2006 · MLB	32	48→49	54→55	50	49	.250/.310/.437	.187	.282	21	7	20%	8%	110	+2.4	.238/.319/.438	.200	.283	25	13	24%	10%	115	+2.7	.198/.319/.427	.229	.220	32	27	27%	13%	106	+0.4
✕Chris Young 2016 · MLB	32	44→49	52→60	48→55	50	.231/.302/.405	.174	.265	20	11	22%	9%	98	+1.6	.239/.315/.415	.176	.281	20	9	22%	9%	107	+2.2	.226/.309/.404	.179	.265	21	8	23%	10%	100	+0.6
●Raul Mondesi 2003 · MLB	32	46→52	58→60	51→55	54	.247/.324/.455	.208	.262	26	21	18%	10%	121	+3.2	.252/.324/.443	.191	.278	22	16	18%	9%	118	+3.0	.254/.325/.441	.187	.284	21	15	18%	9%	110	+1.2
✕Eric Hinske 2010 · MLB	32	46→55	56→60	50	56	.242/.335/.441	.199	.278	23	10	22%	11%	121	+3.2	.242/.324/.422	.180	.296	21	4	24%	10%	112	+2.6	.230/.311/.396	.166	.287	19	0	26%	10%	92	+0.5
●Jose Valentin 2001 · MLB	31	51→52	56→65	56→50	54	.263/.333/.468	.204	.284	23	16	17%	9%	128	+3.6	.253/.324/.477	.224	.276	28	11	20%	9%	127	+3.6	.243/.316/.473	.231	.260	30	8	20%	9%	118	+2.6
●Mike Cameron 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	57→60	53→55	54	.241/.331/.450	.209	.287	24	21	25%	11%	122	+3.3	.255/.338/.462	.207	.310	22	20	24%	10%	128	+3.7	.248/.337/.456	.208	.304	23	20	25%	11%	123	+3.4
✕Justin Ruggiano 2014 · MLB	32	50→59	53→55	49→55	48	.255/.318/.435	.180	.309	21	20	24%	8%	113	+2.6	.241/.310/.404	.163	.316	19	13	28%	8%	102	+1.8	.230/.302/.385	.155	.318	18	10	31%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Steven Souza Jr. 2020 · MLB	31	46→56	56→60	53→55	54	.239/.335/.439	.200	.302	24	15	28%	12%	121	+3.2	.223/.307/.397	.174	.315	19	12	33%	10%	99	+1.7	.195/.289/.372	.177	.278	21	9	35%	10%	83	+0.2
✕Zack Cozart 2018 · MLB	32	52→56	55→60	49→50	55	.269/.341/.466	.197	.288	22	6	16%	10%	130	+3.8	.236/.311/.390	.154	.262	16	5	16%	9%	98	+1.6	.189/.263/.291	.102	.215	8	0	16%	7%	50	-0.5
●Eric Byrnes 2007 · MLB	31	51→57	54→60	55→60	49	.259/.316/.445	.186	.278	20	17	16%	7%	115	+2.7	.259/.319/.436	.177	.278	19	27	14%	7%	114	+2.7	.253/.315/.422	.168	.270	17	30	13%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Scott Hairston 2013 · MLB	33	46→51	58→60	50	46	.247/.302/.457	.210	.273	26	11	21%	7%	113	+2.6	.232/.284/.439	.207	.265	27	9	24%	6%	100	+1.7	.184/.235/.422	.238	.174	39	7	25%	5%	77	+0.0
✕Jason Kipnis 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	51→55	50→55	52	.235/.308/.401	.166	.267	18	10	20%	9%	100	+1.7	.233/.306/.396	.163	.270	19	8	21%	9%	98	+1.6	.233/.306/.397	.164	.273	19	6	22%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Jeff Baker 2014 · MLB	33	51	54→55	49→45	46	.259/.315/.440	.181	.313	21	7	24%	7%	113	+2.6	.249/.309/.406	.157	.312	18	6	25%	8%	102	+1.8	.252/.299/.355	.102	.320	8	3	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jedd Gyorko 2020 · MLB	31	49→53	52→60	49→45	53	.253/.329/.421	.168	.293	20	7	21%	10%	114	+2.7	.245/.324/.432	.187	.296	25	7	25%	10%	115	+2.7	.241/.331/.487	.246	.276	39	0	28%	11%	128	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)