Lane Thomas — OGILVIE

Lane ThomasCF Kansas City Royals

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB HR -5%BB +4% Svc 6.081 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.4 · 2026

wRC+†vL 11896vR 63

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .309 / .407

PA423

HR14

SB18

K%25

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

45→45

SPD

60→60

EYE

54↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.4	$2M	-$4M
Totals		$5M		$2M	-$4M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	225	206	42	8	3	1	17	70	1	9	3	.204	.268	.286	.554	.083	.301	31	8	.245	46	-14	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.9
2015	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	38	36	3	1	0	0	2	13	0	1	0	.083	.132	.111	.243	.028	.130	34	5	.119	-51	-6	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.6
2016	20	A	2 teams	355	316	52	13	1	6	34	154	3	19	6	.165	.252	.269	.521	.104	.295	43	10	.232	36	-26	+1	+0	-4	+10	-1.8
2017	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	347	316	65	11	4	4	23	133	2	10	9	.206	.264	.304	.568	.098	.332	38	7	.246	46	-21	-2	+0	-4	+10	-1.7
2018	22	AA	3 teams	650	598	128	21	6	23	39	198	5	24	13	.214	.268	.385	.653	.171	.274	30	6	.283	75	-19	-0	+0	-7	+18	-0.8
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	348	313	67	13	2	12	26	112	6	12	7	.214	.287	.383	.670	.169	.286	32	7	.295	84	-6	-0	+1	+1	+10	0.5
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	.111	.200	.250	.450	.139	.136	32	10	.213	21	-4	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	404	356	84	19	4	12	45	108	1	9	5	.236	.323	.413	.736	.177	.303	27	11	.317	100	+0	-0	-1	+1	+11	1.2
2022	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	548	498	122	26	2	16	41	132	4	8	4	.245	.308	.402	.709	.157	.299	24	7	.312	97	-2	+0	-3	-6	+16	0.5
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	682	628	167	35	4	29	36	176	11	20	5	.266	.317	.473	.790	.207	.321	26	5	.340	118	+14	+2	-3	-7	+19	2.6
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	544	486	115	27	4	14	46	140	7	34	14	.237	.312	.395	.707	.158	.300	26	8	.308	94	-4	+1	-6	-6	+15	0.1
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	169	150	27	4	0	5	15	51	1	5	2	.180	.259	.307	.566	.127	.227	30	9	.255	53	-9	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	54	45	9	1	0	0	9	9	0	2	0	.200	.333	.222	.556	.022	.250	17	17	.271	66	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
ROS	30	MLB	KC	369	329	79	15	2	11	33	90	4	16	3	.240	.317	.398	.715	.158	.292	24	9	.317	101	+0	+2	-4	-4	+10	0.5
TOT	30	MLB	KC	423	374	88	16	2	11	42	99	4	18	3	.235	.319	.377	.696	.142	.289	23	10	.311	96	-2	+2	-5	-4	+12	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB	KC	408	364	86	16	2	12	36	93	5	16	2	.236	.314	.390	.704	.154	.282	23	9	.313	98	-1	+2	-7	-4	+12	0.2
2028	32	MLB	KC	389	347	81	15	2	11	35	91	4	14	2	.233	.311	.383	.694	.150	.280	23	9	.309	94	-2	+2	-7	-4	+11	-0.1
2029	33	MLB	KC	359	320	74	14	2	10	32	86	4	11	1	.231	.309	.381	.690	.150	.279	24	9	.303	90	-4	+2	-8	-4	+10	-0.4
2030	34	MLB	KC	315	281	63	12	1	8	28	78	3	9	1	.224	.301	.359	.661	.135	.277	25	9	.296	85	-5	+1	-8	-3	+9	-0.7
2031	35	MLB	KC	262	234	50	9	1	6	23	68	3	7	0	.214	.292	.338	.630	.124	.275	26	9	.289	79	-6	+1	-8	-3	+7	-0.9
2032	36	MLB	KC	205	183	39	7	1	5	18	55	2	5	0	.213	.291	.344	.635	.131	.272	27	9	.279	72	-6	+1	-8	-2	+6	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6657	5997	1348	268	41	186	533	1861	66	229	77	.225	.295	.376	.671	.151	.291	28	8	.295	84	-121	+15	-65	-58	+189	-4.1
/ 162G	—			650	586	131	26	4	18	52	182	6	22	8	.224	.293	.374	.667	.150	.289	28	8	.295	84	-12	+1	-6	-6	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	225	196	55	12	4	1	27	49	1	9	3	.281	.371	.398	.768	.117	.367	22	12	.346	123	+6	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2015	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	38	35	4	2	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	.114	.184	.171	.356	.057	.160	26	8	.170	-11	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2016	20	A	Lansing Lugnuts	332	282	61	14	1	7	45	107	3	17	5	.216	.330	.348	.678	.131	.321	32	14	.310	96	-2	+1	—	—	+9	0.9
2016	20	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	23	21	9	5	0	1	2	6	0	2	1	.429	.478	.810	1.288	.381	.571	26	9	.548	278	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2017	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	347	309	78	12	7	4	30	94	2	10	9	.252	.323	.375	.698	.123	.343	27	9	.309	95	-2	-2	—	—	+10	0.6
2018	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	140	131	36	7	2	6	7	33	2	4	1	.275	.321	.496	.818	.221	.326	24	5	.358	132	+5	+0	—	—	+4	1.0
2018	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	435	384	100	16	4	21	43	101	3	13	9	.260	.340	.487	.827	.227	.298	23	10	.359	133	+16	-1	—	—	+12	2.8
2018	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	75	57	15	1	0	1	14	17	0	7	3	.263	.403	.333	.736	.070	.333	23	19	.332	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2019	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	44	38	12	0	1	4	4	8	2	1	1	.316	.409	.684	1.093	.368	.308	18	9	.467	215	+6	-0	+1	+1	+1	0.9
2019	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	304	265	71	17	2	10	32	80	4	11	6	.268	.355	.460	.816	.192	.343	26	11	.359	133	+11	-0	—	—	+9	2.0
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	.111	.200	.250	.450	.139	.136	32	10	.209	18	-4	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	264	226	53	15	2	7	37	63	0	6	3	.235	.342	.412	.754	.177	.293	24	14	.338	116	+5	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.3
2021	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	140	126	35	6	2	5	12	37	1	3	2	.278	.345	.476	.822	.198	.353	26	9	.360	133	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2022	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	.241	.304	.404	.707	.163	.291	24	7	.313	98	-2	+0	-3	-6	+16	0.5
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	682	628	168	36	3	28	36	176	11	20	5	.268	.319	.468	.787	.201	.325	26	5	.343	121	+16	+2	-3	-7	+19	2.7
2024	28	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	528	472	112	26	3	15	44	137	7	32	14	.237	.312	.400	.712	.163	.298	26	8	.316	100	-0	+1	-6	-6	+15	0.4
2024	28	AA	Harrisburg Senators	16	13	4	2	0	0	3	2	0	2	0	.308	.438	.462	.899	.154	.364	12	19	.404	168	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	29	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	142	125	20	2	0	4	14	44	1	4	1	.160	.250	.272	.522	.112	.203	31	10	.240	42	-9	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.6
2025	29	AAA	Columbus Clippers	27	24	8	2	0	2	2	6	0	1	1	.333	.385	.667	1.051	.333	.353	22	7	.435	191	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2248	2023	489	107	11	76	180	573	25	71	28	.242	.311	.418	.730	.176	.296	25	8	.322	105	+12	+3	-15	-16	+64	4.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lane Thomas (OGILVIE)	30	45	45	60	60	.237/.314/.392	.155	.283	13	19	22%	9%	101	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	44→48	52→50	57→65	52	.221/.329/.392	.171	.290	19	34	29%	11%	108	+2.3	.214/.318/.385	.171	.289	18	32	30%	11%	101	+1.8	.199/.301/.374	.174	.267	20	37	31%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	48→43	48→50	61→65	46	.239/.309/.386	.147	.307	15	32	26%	8%	96	+1.5	.248/.324/.382	.134	.313	12	36	23%	9%	102	+1.8	.258/.338/.390	.132	.319	9	43	21%	10%	106	+1.1
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	52→59	45	60	47	.254/.322/.384	.130	.317	12	32	23%	8%	101	+1.8	.245/.333/.363	.118	.314	11	30	23%	10%	101	+1.8	.259/.328/.356	.097	.323	8	39	21%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Tim Locastro 2022 · MLB	30	47→52	45	56→60	46	.231/.321/.355	.124	.275	11	25	20%	6%	95	+1.4	.213/.294/.340	.127	.263	12	24	23%	5%	80	+0.4	.211/.301/.325	.114	.266	11	36	23%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	49→57	48→50	57→60	44	.241/.302/.382	.141	.329	15	25	30%	8%	92	+1.2	.229/.304/.365	.136	.336	15	22	33%	9%	89	+0.9	.204/.291/.315	.111	.311	12	23	35%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	48→51	49→50	56→55	44	.237/.303/.391	.154	.314	16	23	29%	7%	95	+1.4	.228/.276/.352	.124	.329	12	15	33%	5%	73	-0.1	.224/.267/.328	.104	.336	8	10	34%	4%	60	-0.7
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	49	53→55	53→55	49	.250/.324/.426	.176	.296	21	21	23%	8%	114	+2.7	.239/.323/.407	.168	.271	19	20	19%	9%	108	+2.3	.217/.308/.392	.175	.241	20	21	20%	9%	96	+0.6
✕Austin Slater 2023 · MLB	30	52→61	51→50	58→55	53	.255/.346/.421	.167	.328	19	24	26%	11%	121	+3.2	.248/.333/.379	.131	.338	14	13	28%	10%	105	+2.1	.238/.322/.345	.107	.332	12	7	29%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Adam Engel 2022 · MLB	30	47→48	51→50	55→60	42	.238/.300/.402	.164	.302	17	19	27%	6%	97	+1.5	.219/.285/.349	.130	.309	13	24	32%	7%	77	+0.1	.198/.270/.310	.112	.300	11	29	35%	8%	57	-0.6
●Will Venable 2013 · MLB	30	50→56	49→55	63→60	49	.248/.318/.408	.160	.305	15	31	24%	9%	105	+2.1	.247/.306/.401	.154	.302	16	23	23%	7%	98	+1.6	.241/.301/.379	.138	.298	15	22	24%	7%	84	+0.5
●Cameron Maybin 2018 · MLB	31	53→59	44→50	57→55	54	.255/.329/.380	.125	.304	11	28	19%	10%	102	+1.9	.255/.333/.389	.134	.321	12	21	22%	10%	107	+2.2	.260/.339/.395	.134	.335	12	16	24%	10%	107	+1.0
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→55	51→55	54→55	46	.254/.312/.415	.161	.300	18	20	22%	6%	105	+2.1	.240/.292/.372	.132	.286	15	23	21%	6%	85	+0.7	.240/.297/.372	.133	.292	15	22	23%	6%	85	+0.5
●Ryan Roberts 2011 · MLB	30	48→52	45→50	52→55	51	.236/.306/.365	.128	.284	12	16	21%	9%	89	+1.0	.234/.307/.370	.136	.275	15	15	20%	9%	92	+1.2	.233/.307/.361	.129	.271	15	13	19%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Jonathan Villar 2021 · MLB	30	53→58	48→50	58→65	48	.260/.326/.398	.138	.331	16	34	25%	8%	106	+2.2	.241/.303/.386	.145	.309	17	22	26%	8%	94	+1.3	.232/.294/.377	.145	.296	17	20	27%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Brian Bogusevic 2014 · MLB	30	50→55	45	57→55	50	.244/.318/.375	.131	.307	12	21	24%	9%	97	+1.5	.250/.309/.376	.126	.315	13	17	23%	7%	93	+1.3	.255/.303/.381	.126	.315	14	15	23%	6%	89	+0.6
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	48→57	47→50	55	53	.236/.314/.383	.147	.285	14	19	22%	10%	98	+1.6	.235/.321/.376	.141	.299	15	18	24%	11%	98	+1.6	.224/.316/.346	.123	.287	12	20	25%	11%	82	+0.3
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	49→50	52→55	43	.237/.281/.383	.145	.287	18	16	24%	6%	83	+0.6	.238/.283/.373	.135	.301	16	19	26%	6%	82	+0.5	.238/.283/.362	.124	.301	16	24	26%	5%	76	+0.0
●Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	49→52	48→50	62→70	41	.242/.296/.383	.141	.312	16	41	27%	6%	90	+1.0	.254/.315/.388	.134	.326	14	69	25%	6%	99	+1.7	.253/.319/.379	.126	.320	13	95	24%	6%	96	+0.6
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	54→62	48→50	57→60	46	.269/.308/.413	.145	.294	16	30	15%	5%	102	+1.9	.272/.305/.411	.139	.295	15	23	13%	4%	101	+1.8	.266/.293/.391	.125	.288	13	18	13%	3%	89	+0.6
✕Leonys Martin 2018 · MLB	30	47→55	46→50	55→60	42	.236/.285/.367	.131	.298	14	26	26%	6%	81	+0.4	.233/.294/.382	.149	.293	17	17	26%	7%	89	+1.0	.223/.296/.376	.153	.273	19	11	25%	8%	85	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)