Lane Thomas

CF Atlanta Braves

Age 31 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 7.081 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	MLBCLE	528	.237/.312/.400	15	32	99	-0.0
2025	29	AAACLE	27	.333/.385/.667	2	1	109	—	.280/.308/.480
2025	29	MLBCLE	142	.160/.250/.272	4	4	48	-0.6
2026	30	MLBATL	374	.224/.320/.383	11	9	100	0.9
2027PROJ	31	MLBATL	237	.231/.319/.384	7	13	99	0.6
2028PROJ	32	MLBATL	219	.225/.312/.371	6	9	94	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.081First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Bat Spd47

Avg EV46

xwOBA44

Barrel%38

CompsDylan Moore (age 30) · Cameron Maybin (age 31) · Jon Berti (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10399vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .319 / .384

PA237

HR7

SB13

K%25

BB%11

BABIP287

ISO159

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

230.229

POWER45

Barrel%

386.7

Avg EV

4688.8

Bat Spd

4771.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 728 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

220

508

—

wRC+

123

◀◀L

wOBA

350

271

◀◀L

ISO

164

133

◀◀L

BABIP

305

261

◀L

20.0%

28.9%

◀◀L

BB%

12.3%

8.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.5	$2M	-$2M
Totals		$4M		$2M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	225	196	55	12	4	1	27	49	1	9	3	281	371	398	768	117	367	22	12	346	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	38	35	4	2	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	114	184	171	356	57	160	26	8	170	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	332	282	61	14	1	7	45	107	3	17	5	216	330	348	678	131	321	32	14	310	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	23	21	9	5	0	1	2	6	0	2	1	429	478	810	1.288	381	571	26	9	548	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	347	309	78	12	7	4	30	94	2	10	9	252	323	375	698	123	343	27	9	309	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	140	131	36	7	2	6	7	33	2	4	1	275	321	496	818	221	326	24	5	358	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	435	384	100	16	4	21	43	101	3	13	9	260	340	487	827	227	298	23	10	359	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	75	57	15	1	0	1	14	17	0	7	3	263	403	333	736	70	333	23	19	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	44	38	12	0	1	4	4	8	2	1	1	316	409	684	1.093	368	308	18	9	467	213	+6	-0	+1	+1	+1	0.9
2019	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	304	265	71	17	2	10	32	80	4	11	6	268	355	460	816	192	343	26	11	359	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	111	200	250	450	139	136	32	10	209	29	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	264	226	53	15	2	7	37	63	0	6	3	235	342	412	754	177	293	24	14	338	114	+4	+0	-1	+1	+6	1.0
2021	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	140	126	35	6	2	5	12	37	1	3	2	278	345	476	822	198	353	26	9	360	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	241	304	404	707	163	291	24	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-6	+12	0.1
2023	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	682	628	168	36	3	28	36	176	11	20	5	268	319	468	787	201	325	26	5	343	119	+15	+2	-3	-7	+15	2.2
2024	28	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	528	472	112	26	3	15	44	137	7	32	14	237	312	400	712	163	298	26	8	316	99	-0	+1	-6	-6	+11	-0.0
2024	28	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	16	13	4	2	0	0	3	2	0	2	0	308	438	462	899	154	364	12	19	404	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	142	125	20	2	0	4	14	44	1	4	1	160	250	272	522	112	203	31	10	240	48	-9	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.6
2025	29	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	27	24	8	2	0	2	2	6	0	1	1	333	385	667	1.051	333	353	22	7	435	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	374	326	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	224	320	383	703	160	277	25	12	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2622	2349	562	126	11	87	224	666	27	80	31	239	313	413	726	174	294	25	9	321	104	+11	+4	-16	-15	+57	4.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	225	206	42	8	3	1	17	70	1	9	3	204	268	286	554	83	300	31	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	38	36	3	1	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	83	132	111	243	28	129	37	5	116	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	332	294	44	10	1	5	33	154	3	17	5	150	242	241	484	92	283	46	10	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	23	22	6	3	0	1	1	9	0	2	1	273	304	545	850	273	419	39	4	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	347	316	65	11	4	4	23	133	2	10	9	206	264	304	568	98	321	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	140	133	31	6	2	5	5	44	2	4	1	233	271	421	692	188	305	31	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	435	397	86	14	4	14	30	123	3	13	9	217	277	378	655	161	271	28	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	44	38	12	0	1	4	4	8	2	1	1	316	409	684	1.093	368	308	18	9	483	213	+6	-0	+1	+1	+1	0.9
2019	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	304	274	59	14	2	8	23	105	4	11	6	215	286	369	654	153	299	35	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	111	200	250	450	139	136	32	10	212	29	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	264	227	53	15	2	7	36	63	0	6	3	233	338	410	748	176	293	24	14	336	114	+4	+0	-1	+1	+6	1.0
2021	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	140	130	31	5	2	4	8	45	1	3	2	238	288	400	688	162	321	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	241	304	404	707	163	291	24	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-6	+12	0.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	682	628	168	35	4	28	36	176	11	20	5	268	319	470	788	202	325	26	5	343	119	+15	+2	-3	-7	+15	2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	528	473	113	26	4	15	43	137	7	32	14	239	312	406	718	167	298	26	8	315	99	-0	+1	-6	-6	+11	-0.0
2024	28	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	16	14	4	2	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	286	375	429	804	143	323	12	12	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	142	125	20	2	0	4	14	44	1	4	1	160	250	272	522	112	203	31	10	240	48	-9	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.6
2025	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	27	25	7	2	0	1	1	8	0	1	1	280	308	480	788	200	290	30	4	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	374	326	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	224	320	383	703	160	277	25	12	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2014	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	225	206	42	8	3	1	17	70	1	9	3	204	268	286	554	83	301	31	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	225	196	55	12	4	1	27	49	1	9	3	281	371	398	768	117	367	22	12	346	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	38	36	3	1	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	83	132	111	243	28	136	37	5	116	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	38	35	4	2	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	114	184	171	356	57	160	26	8	170	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	355	316	50	13	1	5	34	163	3	19	6	158	246	253	500	95	304	46	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	355	303	70	19	1	8	47	113	3	19	6	231	340	380	719	149	341	32	13	326	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	347	316	65	11	4	4	23	133	2	10	9	206	264	304	568	98	332	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	347	309	78	12	7	4	30	94	2	10	9	252	323	375	698	123	343	27	9	309	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	650	597	132	22	7	21	40	189	5	24	13	221	276	387	663	166	282	29	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	650	572	151	24	6	28	64	151	5	24	13	264	343	474	816	210	308	23	10	356	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	348	312	71	14	3	12	27	113	6	12	7	228	301	407	709	179	311	32	8	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	348	303	83	17	3	14	36	88	6	12	7	274	362	488	851	215	338	25	10	373	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	111	200	250	450	139	136	32	10	212	29	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2020	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	111	200	250	450	139	136	32	10	209	29	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	357	84	20	4	11	44	108	1	9	5	235	321	406	727	171	304	27	11	319	102	+1	-0	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	404	352	88	21	4	12	49	100	1	9	5	250	343	435	778	185	314	25	12	345	102	+1	-0	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2022	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	241	304	404	707	163	291	24	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-6	+12	0.1
2022	26	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	241	304	404	707	163	291	24	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-6	+12	0.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	682	628	168	35	4	28	36	176	11	20	5	268	319	470	788	202	325	26	5	343	119	+15	+2	-3	-7	+15	2.2
2023	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	682	628	168	36	3	28	36	176	11	20	5	268	319	468	787	201	325	26	5	343	119	+15	+2	-3	-7	+15	2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	544	487	116	27	4	15	45	139	7	34	14	238	312	402	714	164	299	26	8	316	100	-0	+1	-6	-6	+12	0.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	544	485	116	28	3	15	47	139	7	34	14	239	315	402	717	163	301	26	9	319	100	-0	+1	-6	-6	+12	0.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	26	3	0	5	15	52	1	5	2	173	253	293	546	120	219	31	9	254	58	-8	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.5
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	169	149	28	4	0	6	16	50	1	5	2	188	271	336	607	148	229	30	9	271	58	-8	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.5
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	374	326	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	224	320	383	703	160	277	25	12	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2026	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	374	326	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	224	320	383	703	160	277	25	12	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2014	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	225	205	42	8	3	1	17	70	1	9	3	205	268	288	556	83	300	31	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	38	36	3	1	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	83	132	111	243	28	129	37	5	116	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	355	315	50	13	1	5	34	163	3	19	6	159	246	254	500	95	292	46	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	347	319	65	11	4	4	23	133	2	10	9	204	264	301	565	97	321	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	650	600	132	22	7	21	40	189	5	24	13	220	276	385	661	165	279	29	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	348	312	71	14	3	12	27	113	6	12	7	228	301	407	709	179	300	32	8	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	40	36	4	2	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	111	200	250	450	139	136	32	10	212	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	356	84	20	4	11	44	108	1	9	5	236	321	407	728	171	303	27	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	548	498	120	26	2	17	41	132	4	8	4	241	304	404	707	163	291	24	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	682	630	168	35	4	28	36	176	11	20	5	267	319	468	787	202	325	26	5	343	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	544	487	116	27	4	15	45	139	7	34	14	238	312	402	714	164	299	26	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	151	26	3	0	5	15	52	1	5	2	172	253	291	544	119	217	31	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	374	325	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	225	320	385	705	160	277	25	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	544	487	116	27	4	15	45	139	7	34	14	238	312	402	714	164	299	26	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	151	26	3	0	5	15	52	1	5	2	172	253	291	544	119	217	31	9	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	374	325	73	19	0	11	44	93	2	9	3	225	320	385	705	160	277	25	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	349	306	71	15	1	10	37	88	3	19	3	231	319	384	703	154	287	25	11	315	99	-0	+3	-2	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	237	208	48	10	1	7	25	60	2	13	2	231	319	384	703	154	287	25	11	315	99	-0	+2	-1	+1	+5	0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	219	192	43	9	0	6	23	56	2	9	2	225	312	371	683	146	283	26	11	307	94	-2	+1	-5	+1	+5	0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	219	192	43	9	0	6	23	56	2	9	2	225	312	371	683	146	283	26	11	307	94	-2	+1	-5	+1	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2841	2541	605	135	11	93	247	722	29	89	33	238	313	410	722	172	293	25	9	320	87	+10	+5	-21	-14	+62	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	139	31	3	21	57	165	7	20	8	239	315	411	726	172	295	25	9	320	87	+2	+1	-5	-3	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5180	4665	1045	220	33	144	420	1511	47	182	75	224	295	378	673	154	295	29	8	297	87	+10	+6	-22	-13	+67	4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	131	28	4	18	53	190	6	23	9	224	295	378	673	154	296	29	8	297	87	+2	+1	-5	-3	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 27 PAwOBA .438 → .329 (−110)K% 22.2% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	27.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.997	×0.930	—	×0.972	20.16%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.064	×0.830	—	×0.972	8.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.093	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .438 → .329; ISO .333 → .221; BABIP .353 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 16 PAwOBA .395 → .331 (−64)K% 12.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.008	×1.220	—	—	15.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×0.958	11.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.010	×0.970	—	×0.958	16.72%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.964	×0.860	—	×0.958	15.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.915	×0.950	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .395 → .331; ISO .154 → .139; BABIP .364 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 140 PAwOBA .352 → .286 (−66)K% 26.4% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.43%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	32.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.94%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.68%
Singles /BIP	24.72%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.003	×1.018	23.61%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.003	×1.018	5.69%
Triples /BIP	2.25%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.003	×1.018	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	5.62%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.14%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .352 → .286; ISO .198 → .147; BABIP .353 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 304 PAwOBA .353 → .281 (−72)K% 26.3% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	34.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.035	×0.710	—	×1.048	7.57%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.35%
Singles /BIP	22.70%	÷1.014	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	20.07%
Doubles /BIP	9.19%	÷0.917	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	8.08%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷0.982	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.50%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .353 → .281; ISO .192 → .153; BABIP .343 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 435 PAwOBA .352 → .285 (−67)K% 23.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.22%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	28.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.89%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.93%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.62%
Singles /BIP	20.85%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.004	×1.027	19.50%
Doubles /BIP	5.65%	÷0.973	×0.840	×1.004	×1.027	5.03%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.004	×1.027	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	7.42%	÷1.215	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.02%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .352 → .285; ISO .227 → .168; BABIP .298 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 140 PAwOBA .347 → .291 (−56)K% 23.6% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.57%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	31.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.00%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.050	3.88%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.47%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.984	×0.900	×1.006	×1.050	20.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.957	×0.810	×1.006	×1.050	6.39%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷0.984	×0.810	×1.006	×1.050	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	6.12%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.51%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .347 → .291; ISO .221 → .180; BABIP .326 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 347 PAwOBA .306 → .251 (−55)K% 27.1% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.09%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	38.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.65%	÷0.990	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.62%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.54%
Singles /BIP	25.58%	÷0.992	×0.920	×1.013	×1.012	24.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.58%	÷0.970	×0.960	×1.013	×1.012	5.66%
Triples /BIP	3.26%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.013	×1.012	2.35%
Home runs /BIP	1.86%	÷0.824	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.01%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .306 → .251; ISO .123 → .101; BABIP .343 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ALansing Lugnuts · 332 PAwOBA .303 → .218 (−85)K% 32.2% → 46.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.23%	÷0.944	×1.360	—	—	46.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.55%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.78%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.72%
Singles /BIP	22.29%	÷1.044	×0.920	×1.000	×1.015	19.93%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷0.982	×0.830	×1.000	×1.015	6.86%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷0.918	×0.910	×1.000	×1.015	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷0.968	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.35%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 96, 3B 84, K 89, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .303 → .218; ISO .131 → .092; BABIP .321 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Preston Wilson'98-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,436 PA	6.7	4,436	189	124	253*	314*	451*	+4	-34	13.9	14.6
/162	664	28	19	+0.6	-5.0	2.1	pk7: 15
#2Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#3Nate McLouthlast yr '14 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,737 PA	5.6	3,737	101	133	247	332	410	-2	-53	11.0	11.9
/162	664	18	24	-0.3	-9.4	2.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.5	2,994	95	101	239	311	408	+11	-19	10.3	10.5
/162	664	21	22	+2.4	-4.1	2.3	pk7: 11
#4Mike Devereaux'87-'98 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,102 PA	6.2	4,102	105	85	248*	302*	416*	-3	+0	8.3	10.2
/162	664	17	14	-0.6	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 12
#5Oddibe McDowell'85-'94 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,172 PA	4.8	3,172	74	169	250*	322*	411*	+4	-12	9.2	9.2
/162	664	15	35	+0.8	-2.5	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lane Thomas (OGILVIE)	31	45	45	60	60	229/316/381	152	287	7	13	25%	11%	99	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	51→55	57→65	52	219/326/387	168	288	18	35	29%	11%	105	+1.7	214/315/385	171	288	18	32	30%	11%	100	+1.3	199/300/371	172	267	19	37	31%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Cameron Maybin 2018 · MLB	31	52→60	45→50	57→55	54	252/327/377	125	300	12	30	20%	10%	101	+1.4	251/328/385	134	316	13	20	23%	10%	103	+1.6	255/333/386	131	328	12	16	24%	10%	106	+0.8
✕Jon Berti 2021 · MLB	31	55→62	45	58→60	53	264/350/394	130	333	12	30	23%	10%	114	+2.3	248/330/363	115	316	10	31	22%	10%	99	+1.3	268/335/372	103	335	9	39	21%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Jonathan Villar 2021 · MLB	30	52→60	47→50	58→65	48	255/320/390	135	325	15	34	25%	8%	101	+1.4	243/303/389	146	311	16	21	26%	8%	95	+0.9	240/299/387	148	306	17	20	26%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Sam Haggerty 2024 · MLB	30	52→43	47→50	65	51	253/329/405	151	309	13	37	22%	9%	108	+1.9	239/306/346	107	309	8	31	24%	8%	86	+0.3	222/285/300	78	299	5	30	25%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	47→50	50	56→55	43	235/297/391	157	308	17	24	29%	7%	93	+0.8	223/270/343	120	322	11	14	33%	5%	72	-0.7	217/259/318	101	325	8	10	34%	4%	59	-1.2
✕Hiram Bocachica 2007 · MLB	31	48	53→55	54→55	49	247/321/422	174	290	21	21	23%	8%	109	+2.0	235/318/397	162	267	19	19	19%	9%	103	+1.6	203/292/360	156	229	17	21	20%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Drew Stubbs 2017 · MLB	32	46→56	48→50	57→60	46	224/301/365	141	321	16	26	33%	9%	89	+0.5	216/291/331	115	324	12	16	34%	9%	78	-0.3	199/276/290	91	309	9	13	35%	9%	60	-1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→57	43→45	60→65	45	240/329/356	116	317	10	34	26%	7%	99	+1.2	217/305/332	115	286	9	35	26%	7%	84	+0.1	203/292/312	108	273	8	40	26%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	244/292/424	180	286	19	25	22%	5%	99	+1.3	237/278/395	158	286	14	20	22%	4%	87	+0.4	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	52→55	53→55	61→60	45	262/312/449	187	310	19	26	22%	6%	112	+2.2	234/292/362	128	293	13	18	24%	7%	84	+0.2	215/277/310	95	275	9	16	24%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	46→45	62→60	44	242/286/382	140	287	13	30	21%	5%	86	+0.3	236/282/346	110	292	9	33	22%	6%	77	-0.3	231/279/323	91	291	7	39	22%	5%	66	-0.8
✕Eduardo Núñez 2018 · MLB	31	58→65	49→50	56→60	46	290/324/436	147	311	16	30	13%	4%	114	+2.3	254/285/378	124	279	13	15	14%	4%	85	+0.2	242/267/351	108	267	11	10	14%	3%	72	-0.4
✕Chris Dickerson 2013 · MLB	31	51→56	45→50	60	47	243/314/376	133	334	11	29	29%	9%	96	+1.0	235/302/362	127	324	12	20	29%	8%	88	+0.5	231/298/344	113	320	11	20	29%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	62→70	41	237/290/363	127	308	14	42	27%	6%	84	+0.2	249/310/375	126	320	13	71	25%	6%	95	+0.9	246/312/366	120	313	12	95	24%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	47→50	55	53	235/315/382	147	285	14	18	22%	10%	98	+1.2	232/318/369	137	296	14	18	25%	11%	97	+1.1	222/312/344	122	285	12	20	25%	11%	89	+0.3
●Donzell McDonald II 2006 · AAA	31	48→58	47→50	66→65	49	238/312/382	144	287	13	43	22%	8%	97	+1.1	245/313/379	134	306	10	35	22%	8%	96	+1.0	263/326/398	134	324	9	22	20%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Justin Greene 2017 · AAA	31	56→62	42→50	56→60	45	268/318/380	111	336	9	29	22%	6%	97	+1.1	271/321/387	116	343	12	38	23%	6%	101	+1.4	283/332/392	109	359	12	49	23%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Reggie Taylor 2008 · MLB	31	51→56	48→50	53→55	48	255/310/397	141	292	16	25	18%	7%	99	+1.3	234/279/364	130	278	14	17	21%	6%	80	-0.1	220/256/340	120	263	12	12	21%	4%	65	-0.5

Lane Thomas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps