Tyler Black — OGILVIE

Tyler Black3B Nashville Sounds

Age 26 L/R 6'0" / 208 lbs AAA BB +10%HR +7% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2027

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .321 / .372

PA250

HR6

SB12

K%26

BB%10

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40↗42

SPD

60→60

FLD

30↗42

EYE

56↗70

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.2	$10M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+1.1	$9M	+$5M
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+1.0	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$12M		$30M	+$18M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	103	88	16	3	0	0	13	39	2	3	2	.182	.301	.216	.517	.034	.327	38	13	.242	43	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
2022	22	A+	2 teams	359	304	71	13	5	5	43	73	9	17	7	.234	.346	.359	.704	.125	.289	20	12	.309	95	-2	+1	+0	+1	+10	1.0
2023	23	AA	2 teams	558	480	123	26	13	16	59	140	16	55	12	.256	.357	.465	.821	.208	.327	25	11	.351	127	+17	+6	+0	+2	+16	4.2
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	519	456	104	14	4	13	48	123	13	23	3	.228	.319	.362	.681	.134	.283	24	9	.300	88	-7	+3	+0	-9	+15	0.2
2025	25	AAA	2 teams	307	269	60	10	3	4	35	89	2	22	4	.223	.317	.327	.644	.104	.316	29	11	.288	78	-8	+3	-1	-5	+9	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	45	41	10	2	0	1	4	11	0	2	0	.244	.311	.366	.677	.122	.310	24	9	.293	82	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
ROS	26	MLB	MIL	205	179	41	7	2	5	21	52	3	10	3	.229	.320	.374	.694	.145	.297	25	10	.314	98	-0	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.5
TOT	26	MLB	MIL	250	220	51	9	2	6	25	63	3	12	3	.232	.319	.373	.691	.141	.296	25	10	.310	95	-1	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 52%	MIL	380	331	79	14	4	9	40	87	6	18	5	.239	.332	.387	.718	.148	.291	23	11	.320	103	+1	+2	-3	+1	+11	1.2
2028	28	MLB 56%	MIL	392	342	80	14	4	9	41	91	6	18	5	.234	.326	.377	.704	.143	.291	23	10	.319	102	+1	+2	-4	+1	+11	1.1
2029	29	MLB 60%	MIL	390	340	79	14	3	9	41	91	6	18	4	.232	.326	.371	.696	.138	.290	23	11	.317	101	+0	+2	-5	+1	+11	1.0
2030	30	MLB 63%	MIL	388	339	78	14	3	9	40	92	6	17	4	.230	.322	.369	.691	.139	.289	24	10	.314	98	-1	+2	-5	+1	+11	0.8
2031	31	MLB 65%	MIL	373	326	74	13	3	8	39	90	5	14	3	.227	.319	.359	.678	.132	.288	24	10	.310	96	-2	+2	-6	+1	+11	0.6
2032	32	MLB 67%	MIL	354	309	70	12	3	8	37	87	5	12	3	.227	.319	.362	.682	.136	.286	25	10	.305	92	-3	+1	-6	+1	+10	0.3
2033	33	MLB 69%	MIL	324	283	63	11	3	7	33	82	5	10	2	.223	.315	.357	.672	.134	.284	25	10	.299	87	-5	+1	-7	+1	+9	-0.0
2034	34	MLB 71%	MIL	280	245	52	9	2	5	29	73	4	8	1	.212	.306	.327	.632	.114	.282	26	10	.293	82	-6	+1	-7	+1	+8	-0.3
2035	35	MLB 72%	MIL	228	200	42	7	2	4	23	62	3	6	1	.210	.301	.325	.626	.115	.280	27	10	.285	76	-6	+1	-8	+1	+6	-0.6
2036	36	MLB 73%	MIL	172	151	31	5	1	3	17	49	2	4	1	.205	.294	.311	.605	.106	.277	28	10	.276	70	-6	+0	-8	+1	+5	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5332	4642	1063	186	55	114	559	1320	93	255	60	.229	.324	.366	.690	.137	.293	25	10	.309	95	-33	+27	-61	+1	+151	8.7
/ 162G	—			650	566	130	23	7	14	68	161	11	31	7	.230	.324	.369	.693	.140	.294	25	10	.309	95	-4	+3	-7	+0	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	103	81	18	4	0	0	20	29	2	3	2	.222	.388	.272	.660	.049	.346	28	19	.323	105	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	283	231	65	13	4	4	45	44	5	13	6	.281	.409	.424	.833	.143	.330	16	16	.376	146	+15	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	76	61	17	3	0	1	10	18	4	4	1	.279	.413	.377	.790	.098	.381	24	13	.363	136	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	173	142	44	9	4	4	27	23	3	8	3	.310	.430	.514	.944	.204	.345	13	16	.415	176	+15	+0	—	—	+5	2.1
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	385	308	84	16	8	14	61	77	13	47	9	.273	.413	.513	.926	.240	.320	20	16	.406	169	+30	+6	—	—	+11	4.8
2024	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	57	49	10	2	0	0	7	17	1	3	0	.204	.316	.245	.561	.041	.312	30	12	.271	65	-2	+1	+0	-9	+2	-0.9
2024	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	462	387	100	14	5	14	61	87	12	20	3	.258	.376	.429	.805	.171	.299	19	13	.362	135	+18	+3	—	—	+13	3.5
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	268	222	54	10	2	4	43	71	2	22	3	.243	.371	.360	.731	.117	.338	26	16	.337	116	+5	+3	—	—	+8	1.6
2025	25	ROK	ACL Brewers	39	31	12	2	1	1	8	3	0	0	1	.387	.513	.613	1.126	.226	.407	8	21	.489	233	+6	-0	—	—	+1	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			57	49	10	2	0	0	7	17	1	3	0	.204	.316	.245	.561	.041	.312	30	12	.271	65	-2	+1	+0	-9	+2	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Black (OGILVIE)	26	50	40→42	60	70	.228/.321/.372	.144	.295	6	12	26%	10%	99	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	46→55	48→50	55	49	.231/.297/.380	.149	.276	14	24	22%	8%	89	+1.0	.245/.318/.381	.136	.306	13	20	22%	9%	98	+1.6	.254/.328/.372	.118	.320	10	18	22%	10%	95	+1.1
✕Richie Palacios 2023 · MLB	26	51→53	44→50	58→55	50	.246/.318/.376	.130	.305	9	20	21%	8%	97	+1.5	.232/.317/.355	.123	.273	12	18	19%	10%	92	+1.2	.220/.315/.334	.114	.255	12	20	18%	11%	84	+0.3
✕Jake McCarthy 2023 · MLB	26	51→60	49→50	62→60	45	.251/.315/.410	.159	.320	16	32	26%	7%	105	+2.1	.258/.320/.384	.126	.310	11	32	20%	7%	100	+1.7	.252/.316/.362	.110	.298	9	32	18%	6%	89	+0.8
✕Flavio Romero 2007 · AAA	27	51→57	45	54→60	53	.248/.324/.367	.119	.293	12	31	20%	9%	98	+1.6	.237/.324/.332	.095	.292	8	24	20%	11%	89	+0.9	.240/.335/.317	.078	.296	5	20	19%	12%	88	+0.6
✕Mallex Smith 2019 · MLB	26	56→61	41→45	63→65	50	.264/.329/.375	.110	.331	5	39	21%	8%	100	+1.7	.237/.304/.347	.110	.307	7	40	23%	8%	83	+0.6	.220/.292/.329	.108	.292	8	49	25%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Cal Stevenson 2023 · MLB	26	46→56	43→45	53→60	51	.225/.303/.337	.112	.295	11	20	26%	10%	81	+0.4	.237/.325/.359	.122	.309	12	27	25%	11%	96	+1.5	.238/.332/.360	.122	.307	12	34	24%	12%	98	+0.9
●Denard Span 2010 · MLB	26	60→64	41→50	55	55	.284/.355/.391	.108	.332	7	23	16%	9%	115	+2.8	.267/.335/.363	.096	.301	5	20	12%	9%	100	+1.7	.261/.330/.402	.141	.286	13	12	14%	9%	105	+1.9
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	45	46→45	58→70	58	.222/.330/.350	.129	.281	13	31	24%	13%	97	+1.5	.227/.324/.345	.118	.296	11	48	25%	10%	93	+1.3	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
●Nate McLouth 2008 · MLB	26	51→55	49→60	59→60	49	.252/.320/.406	.154	.289	15	27	19%	7%	106	+2.2	.254/.339/.443	.189	.278	20	20	17%	10%	124	+3.4	.244/.335/.425	.181	.264	20	19	16%	10%	112	+2.4
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	51→59	49→50	58→60	53	.253/.329/.406	.154	.299	15	25	20%	9%	109	+2.4	.243/.316/.384	.141	.292	13	17	20%	9%	98	+1.6	.233/.306/.368	.136	.280	13	15	21%	9%	86	+0.4
●Josh Smith 2023 · MLB	25	48→53	46→45	52→50	51	.234/.325/.366	.131	.293	13	18	23%	9%	98	+1.6	.234/.323/.360	.126	.288	12	12	22%	9%	96	+1.5	.239/.327/.362	.123	.288	12	10	20%	9%	94	+1.0
✕Chris Dickerson 2009 · MLB	27	50→55	49→50	59→60	44	.238/.308/.394	.157	.343	15	25	33%	8%	98	+1.6	.251/.326/.378	.127	.351	10	26	28%	10%	101	+1.8	.246/.321/.390	.144	.339	13	22	29%	9%	100	+1.0
✕Roger Bernadina 2011 · MLB	27	55→64	45	59→60	48	.266/.322/.395	.130	.323	12	26	21%	7%	103	+1.9	.242/.306/.370	.128	.296	13	26	22%	7%	91	+1.1	.228/.296/.347	.119	.323	12	20	31%	8%	78	+0.1
●TJ Friedl 2023 · MLB	27	47→53	48→50	55	48	.234/.303/.384	.149	.269	15	16	19%	7%	93	+1.3	.244/.323/.394	.150	.276	16	19	17%	8%	105	+2.1	.246/.337/.381	.136	.276	15	18	16%	10%	103	+1.8
✕Roger Cedeno 2001 · MLB	26	54→60	46→45	58→65	62	.266/.359/.395	.129	.302	13	34	16%	13%	119	+3.1	.272/.330/.377	.105	.316	9	37	16%	8%	102	+1.8	.270/.323/.368	.099	.314	7	34	16%	7%	92	+1.1
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	44→45	59→60	46	.220/.309/.338	.117	.303	11	30	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.222/.314/.329	.107	.299	10	22	27%	10%	85	+0.7	.216/.313/.311	.095	.285	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Leonys Martin 2013 · MLB	25	52→55	48→50	51→60	46	.260/.309/.411	.151	.297	14	21	18%	6%	102	+1.9	.254/.304/.377	.123	.307	11	30	20%	6%	91	+1.1	.241/.297/.381	.140	.306	16	24	26%	7%	85	+0.6
✕Manuel Margot 2021 · MLB	26	51→53	46→50	54→60	50	.249/.308/.386	.137	.288	12	23	18%	8%	95	+1.4	.257/.315/.377	.120	.299	11	18	17%	8%	95	+1.4	.260/.315/.371	.111	.303	9	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Kevin Thompson 2006 · AAA	26	51→53	47→50	57→60	49	.250/.322/.396	.147	.311	12	28	23%	8%	104	+2.0	.241/.306/.374	.133	.296	11	27	21%	8%	92	+1.2	.237/.302/.362	.124	.288	10	31	20%	8%	83	+0.3
●Jason Kipnis 2014 · MLB	27	54→60	48→55	58→55	54	.263/.339/.415	.152	.312	14	24	20%	10%	115	+2.8	.264/.338/.398	.134	.317	11	19	19%	9%	111	+2.5	.258/.327/.418	.161	.303	15	11	19%	8%	105	+2.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)