Tyler Black — OGILVIE

Tyler Black3B Nashville Sounds

Age 26 L/R 6'0" / 208 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION253 act + 168 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .324 / .368

PA168

HR3

SB10

K%25

BB%10

BABIP302

ISO136

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

887.1%

xwOBA

100.260

POWER42

Avg EV

1083.2

Bat Spd

3169.4

EYE70

Chase%

9016.4%

SPEED60

Sprint

6328.0

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.5M
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	103	88	15	2	0	0	13	40	2	3	2	170	291	193	484	23	312	39	13	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	103	81	18	4	0	0	20	29	2	3	2	222	388	272	660	49	346	28	19	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	359	301	65	12	5	5	46	79	9	17	7	216	337	339	676	123	274	22	13	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	359	292	82	16	4	5	55	62	9	17	7	281	410	414	824	134	339	17	15	373	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	2 teams	—	558	479	125	28	13	15	60	146	16	55	12	261	362	468	830	207	343	26	11	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	2 teams	—	558	450	128	25	12	18	88	100	16	55	12	284	418	513	931	229	328	18	16	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	519	457	108	13	4	14	47	125	13	23	3	236	325	374	699	138	294	24	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	519	436	110	16	5	14	68	104	13	23	3	252	369	408	778	156	300	20	13	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	2 teams	—	307	269	61	10	3	4	35	88	2	22	4	227	320	331	651	104	320	29	11	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	2 teams	—	307	253	66	12	3	5	51	74	2	22	4	261	389	391	780	130	349	24	17	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	MIL	—	253	219	49	12	3	4	26	60	4	17	0	224	317	361	678	137	285	24	10	301	89	-3	+3	+0	+1	+7	0.8
YTD	26	AAA	MIL	—	253	207	52	13	3	5	38	51	4	17	0	251	378	415	793	164	305	20	15	354	129	+8	+3	+0	+1	+7	2.0
ROS	26	AAA	MIL	55%	168	146	34	7	2	3	17	42	3	10	1	232	324	368	692	136	291	25	10	309	94	-1	+2	-1	+1	+5	0.5
ROS	26	MLB	MIL	55%	93	81	19	4	1	2	10	23	2	5	1	235	333	383	716	148	289	25	11	294	83	-2	+1	-1	+0	+3	0.1
FULL	26	AAA	MIL	—	346	300	68	16	4	6	36	83	6	22	1	227	322	367	688	140	290	24	10	299	87	-5	+4	-1	+1	+10	0.9
TOT	26	AAA	MIL	—	421	365	83	19	5	7	43	102	7	27	1	227	320	364	684	137	292	24	10	304	91	-4	+5	-1	+2	+12	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	MIL	57%	380	332	76	15	4	8	39	94	6	20	3	229	321	370	691	142	289	25	10	309	95	-2	+3	-3	+1	+11	1.0
2028	28	MLB	MIL	59%	392	343	78	15	4	8	40	97	6	20	3	227	319	364	683	137	289	25	10	309	95	-2	+3	-4	+1	+11	0.9
2029	29	MLB	MIL	58%	390	341	76	15	3	8	40	97	6	18	3	223	315	355	670	132	288	25	10	308	94	-3	+2	-5	+1	+11	0.8
2030	30	MLB	MIL	58%	388	339	76	15	3	8	40	97	6	17	3	224	317	357	674	133	287	25	10	306	92	-3	+2	-5	+1	+11	0.6
2031	31	MLB	MIL	58%	373	327	73	14	3	8	38	94	5	14	2	223	314	358	671	135	284	25	10	301	89	-5	+2	-6	+1	+11	0.3
2032	32	MLB	MIL	58%	354	310	68	13	3	7	36	91	5	11	2	219	311	348	659	129	280	26	10	295	84	-6	+1	-6	+1	+10	-0.0
2033	33	MLB	MIL	58%	324	283	60	11	3	6	33	85	5	8	1	212	305	336	641	124	275	26	10	288	79	-8	+1	-7	+1	+9	-0.3
2034	34	MLB	MIL	53%	280	246	50	9	2	5	28	75	4	5	1	203	295	317	612	114	269	27	10	279	72	-9	+1	-7	+1	+8	-0.7
2027	27	MLB	MIL	57%	218	190	43	8	2	5	23	54	3	12	2	226	319	368	688	142	287	25	11	296	84	-4	+2	-2	+1	+6	0.3
2028	28	MLB	MIL	59%	231	201	46	9	2	5	24	57	4	12	2	229	323	368	691	139	286	25	10	296	85	-4	+2	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2029	29	MLB	MIL	58%	228	200	45	9	2	5	23	57	3	11	2	225	314	365	679	140	286	25	10	295	84	-4	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.2
2030	30	MLB	MIL	58%	225	197	44	8	2	5	23	56	3	10	1	223	314	360	674	137	284	25	10	293	82	-5	+2	-3	+1	+6	0.1
2031	31	MLB	MIL	58%	216	189	41	8	2	4	22	55	3	8	1	217	308	344	652	127	282	25	10	288	79	-5	+1	-3	+1	+6	-0.0
2032	32	MLB	MIL	58%	204	178	39	7	2	4	21	52	3	6	1	219	312	348	660	129	278	25	10	283	75	-6	+1	-4	+1	+6	-0.2
2033	33	MLB	MIL	58%	187	163	34	6	2	3	19	49	3	4	1	209	303	325	628	117	273	26	10	276	69	-6	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.4
2034	34	MLB	MIL	53%	149	131	26	5	1	2	15	40	2	3	0	198	291	298	588	99	267	27	10	267	63	-6	+1	-4	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1808	1579	347	66	16	35	187	460	27	74	11	220	313	348	661	129	286	25	10	288	78	-44	+10	-25	-3	+51	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	126	24	6	13	67	165	10	27	4	222	315	354	669	132	288	25	10	288	78	-16	+4	-9	-1	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	4895	4261	965	179	52	99	512	1250	88	243	47	226	322	363	684	136	295	26	10	307	93	-40	+30	-46	-0	+139	8.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	128	24	7	13	68	166	12	32	6	226	322	362	684	136	295	26	10	307	93	-5	+4	-6	-0	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	103	81	18	4	0	0	20	29	2	3	2	222	388	272	660	49	346	28	19	323	105	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	283	231	65	13	4	4	45	44	5	13	6	281	409	424	833	143	330	16	16	376	146	+15	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	76	61	17	3	0	1	10	18	4	4	1	279	413	377	790	98	381	24	13	363	136	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	173	142	44	9	4	4	27	23	3	8	3	310	430	514	944	204	345	13	16	415	176	+15	+0	—	—	+5	2.1
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	308	84	16	8	14	61	77	13	47	9	273	413	513	926	240	320	20	16	406	169	+30	+6	—	—	+11	4.8
2024	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	57	49	10	2	0	0	7	17	1	3	0	204	316	245	561	41	312	30	12	271	65	-2	+1	+0	-9	+2	-0.9
2024	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	462	387	100	14	5	14	61	87	12	20	3	258	376	429	805	171	299	19	13	362	135	+18	+3	—	—	+13	3.5
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	268	222	54	10	2	4	43	71	2	22	3	243	371	360	731	117	338	26	16	337	116	+5	+3	—	—	+8	1.6
2025	25	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	39	31	12	2	1	1	8	3	0	0	1	387	513	613	1.126	226	407	8	21	489	233	+6	-0	—	—	+1	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	57	49	10	2	0	0	7	17	1	3	0	204	316	245	561	41	312	30	12	271	65	-2	+1	+0	-9	+2	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	7	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
	/162	664	6	35	246	327	342	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,846	37	75	222	311	352	+7	-3	4.1	4.0
	/162	664	13	27	222	311	352	+2.4	-1.1	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Black (OGILVIE)	26	50	40→42	60	70	227/320/364	137	292	7	27	24%	10%	91	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mallex Smith 2019 · MLB	26	56→61	40→45	63→65	50	264/329/371	107	330	5	39	20%	8%	100	+1.7	237/305/347	110	309	7	39	24%	8%	84	+0.6	228/299/334	106	303	7	49	25%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	46→54	47→50	55	49	230/296/376	146	276	14	25	22%	8%	89	+0.9	243/316/375	132	305	12	19	23%	10%	96	+1.5	251/325/369	118	318	10	18	23%	10%	95	+1.2
✕Flavio Romero 2007 · AAA	27	50→57	44→45	55→60	53	245/323/359	114	293	12	31	20%	9%	95	+1.4	236/324/329	93	292	7	23	20%	11%	88	+0.9	240/335/317	78	296	5	20	19%	12%	88	+0.6
✕Richie Palacios 2023 · MLB	26	52	44→50	59→55	51	251/323/381	130	310	9	20	21%	9%	100	+1.7	231/317/354	123	272	12	19	19%	10%	92	+1.2	219/314/336	116	253	12	20	18%	11%	83	+0.3
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	46→45	46→45	58→70	60	225/336/357	132	282	14	33	24%	13%	101	+1.8	227/323/345	118	296	11	49	25%	10%	92	+1.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
●Jake McCarthy 2023 · MLB	26	51→59	49→50	62→60	46	251/315/408	156	318	15	33	25%	7%	105	+2.1	257/320/382	125	308	11	32	19%	7%	99	+1.7	263/323/401	137	306	11	27	17%	6%	102	+1.3
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Josh Smith 2023 · MLB	25	48→52	45	52→50	51	232/323/359	127	290	12	17	23%	9%	96	+1.5	233/322/361	128	285	12	11	21%	9%	96	+1.5	238/326/362	125	285	12	10	20%	9%	95	+1.1
●Cal Stevenson 2023 · MLB	26	46→56	43→45	54→60	51	223/302/332	109	293	11	20	26%	10%	79	+0.3	239/326/363	124	311	12	28	25%	11%	97	+1.5	241/333/366	126	310	12	34	24%	12%	100	+1.0
✕Drew Avans 2022 · AAA	26	51→55	45→50	60	46	244/308/378	134	335	11	26	29%	8%	93	+1.3	224/296/334	110	323	8	28	30%	8%	77	+0.1	225/296/318	92	315	8	30	29%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Nate Eaton 2023 · MLB	26	46→49	46→50	60	44	226/292/355	129	295	13	29	27%	7%	82	+0.5	218/266/356	138	283	16	27	28%	5%	70	-0.3	219/272/357	138	284	14	27	27%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Chris Getz 2010 · MLB	26	54→56	41→40	57→60	51	258/316/358	100	289	8	23	14%	7%	91	+1.1	249/305/317	68	281	3	27	12%	7%	76	+0.0	247/293/314	66	276	2	31	10%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Kevin Thompson 2006 · AAA	26	51→52	47→50	57→60	49	248/320/397	149	309	13	29	23%	8%	104	+2.0	239/304/371	132	293	11	27	21%	8%	90	+1.0	237/302/360	123	287	10	31	20%	8%	82	+0.3
●Nate McLouth 2008 · MLB	26	50→55	50→60	60	50	251/323/413	162	289	16	27	19%	8%	109	+2.4	253/338/441	188	277	20	20	16%	10%	123	+3.3	244/335/426	182	264	20	19	16%	10%	111	+2.4
✕Manuel Margot 2021 · MLB	26	50→53	46→50	54→60	51	248/309/388	140	286	13	24	18%	8%	96	+1.5	254/311/376	122	295	11	17	17%	7%	94	+1.3	256/312/371	114	298	10	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Roger Bernadina 2010 · MLB	26	55→63	42→45	59→60	45	261/315/370	109	341	8	31	25%	7%	93	+1.3	251/311/380	129	305	13	27	21%	7%	95	+1.4	251/316/379	128	302	14	30	21%	8%	93	+0.9
✕Micah Johnson 2016 · MLB	25	57→60	40→45	57→60	44	268/313/365	98	338	6	30	22%	6%	91	+1.1	227/273/321	94	312	7	21	28%	6%	63	-0.9	207/251/297	91	290	6	19	30%	5%	44	-1.1
✕Bryce Johnson 2022 · AAA	26	49→53	44→45	60	45	233/302/357	123	329	10	28	30%	8%	85	+0.7	234/304/342	108	333	9	32	30%	8%	82	+0.5	231/309/333	102	319	8	29	27%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Eric Patterson 2010 · MLB	27	50→55	44→50	62→60	47	245/299/374	129	301	11	32	22%	7%	88	+0.9	218/277/348	130	280	11	27	25%	7%	72	-0.2	195/260/315	121	257	9	26	27%	8%	55	-0.6
✕Damian Jackson 2001 · MLB	27	53→54	43→45	58→55	57	251/336/375	124	308	8	26	20%	11%	104	+2.0	247/317/353	106	311	6	27	21%	9%	91	+1.1	255/323/351	95	294	7	32	15%	8%	90	+0.5