Conner Capel — OGILVIE

Conner CapelLF Hartford Yard Goats

Age 29 L/L 6'0" / 185 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION304 act + 202 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .294 / .392

PA202

HR7

SB5

K%23

BB%7

BABIP268

ISO163

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

Whiff%

5110.9%

xwOBA

410.299

POWER45

Barrel%

102.6

Avg EV

1082.3

Bat Spd

2568.6

EYE50

Chase%

6828.1%

SPEED55

Sprint

4027.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	AZL Indians	—	153	142	24	4	2	0	7	29	1	10	3	169	213	225	439	56	209	19	5	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	AZL Indians	—	153	138	29	5	3	0	11	20	1	10	3	210	273	290	563	80	242	13	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	492	449	92	15	7	13	33	149	4	15	10	205	265	356	622	151	271	30	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	492	439	108	22	7	22	43	108	4	15	10	246	319	478	797	232	275	22	9	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	509	458	104	24	4	9	37	135	3	15	11	227	289	356	645	129	296	27	7	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	509	439	113	23	4	7	56	102	3	15	11	257	345	376	721	118	315	20	11	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	3 teams	—	487	460	93	15	1	10	21	146	3	11	7	202	242	304	546	102	270	30	4	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	3 teams	—	487	450	113	20	1	14	31	110	3	11	7	251	304	393	697	142	301	23	6	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	407	374	79	13	3	13	26	104	3	6	4	211	268	366	634	155	253	26	6	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	407	357	93	17	4	14	43	79	3	6	4	261	345	448	793	188	295	19	11	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	468	420	92	13	4	10	43	99	3	22	10	219	296	340	637	121	262	21	9	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	468	405	109	20	4	13	58	80	3	22	10	269	365	435	799	165	306	17	12	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	477	431	91	14	3	7	41	130	4	22	7	211	286	306	592	95	286	27	9	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	477	414	105	19	5	9	58	109	4	22	7	254	351	389	740	135	324	23	12	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	416	366	65	16	1	13	42	110	2	10	6	178	266	333	599	156	209	26	10	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	416	340	73	16	4	12	67	90	2	10	6	215	346	391	738	176	250	22	16	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	386	80	6	3	9	23	105	2	21	4	207	255	308	564	101	258	25	6	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	367	86	10	3	10	42	83	2	21	4	234	316	360	676	125	274	20	10	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	AA	COL	—	304	278	62	11	1	11	22	62	3	5	4	223	287	388	676	165	248	20	7	292	82	-6	-1	+0	-3	+9	-0.2
YTD	29	AA	COL	—	304	265	70	13	1	12	32	48	3	5	4	264	347	457	803	192	282	16	11	354	129	+10	-1	+0	-3	+9	1.5
ROS	29	AA	COL	2%	202	183	42	7	1	7	15	47	2	5	2	229	294	392	686	163	262	23	7	297	86	-3	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB	COL	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		283	25	0	314	99	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	29	AA	COL	—	308	282	63	11	1	11	22	63	3	5	4	223	287	387	673	163	249	20	7	293	82	-6	-1	-0	-3	+9	-0.1
TOT	29	AA	COL	—	506	461	104	18	2	18	37	109	5	10	6	225	290	390	680	165	255	22	7	294	83	-10	-0	-1	-5	+14	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	COL	23%	380	346	77	12	2	12	28	89	3	8	3	223	286	373	659	150	263	23	7	296	85	-7	+0	-3	-4	+11	-0.3
2027	30	MLB	COL	23%	86	79	18	3	0	3	6	20	1	2	1	228	291	380	670	152	284	23	7	313	98	-0	+0	-1	-1	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	235	208	54	8	1	6	23	56	2	8	5	260	339	394	733	135	324	24	10	334	114	+4	-0	-3	-11	+7	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	150	22	3	17	64	155	6	22	14	261	342	398	740	137	325	24	10	334	114	+10	-1	-8	-31	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	4405	4015	839	139	31	103	316	1143	30	145	67	209	272	336	608	127	263	26	7	267	63	-186	+2	-6	-47	+125	-11.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	125	21	5	15	47	169	4	21	10	211	273	340	613	128	266	26	7	267	63	-27	+0	-1	-7	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	AZL Indians	—	153	138	29	5	3	0	11	20	1	10	3	210	273	290	563	80	242	13	7	253	52	-8	+1	—	—	+4	-0.3
2017	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	492	439	108	22	7	22	43	108	4	15	10	246	319	478	797	232	275	22	9	345	122	+12	-1	—	—	+14	2.6
2018	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	509	439	113	23	4	7	56	102	3	15	11	257	345	376	721	118	315	20	11	321	104	+2	-1	—	—	+14	1.5
2019	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	31	30	13	5	0	2	1	6	0	1	0	433	452	800	1.252	367	500	19	3	539	271	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2019	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	368	341	79	12	1	9	23	84	2	9	4	232	284	352	636	120	280	23	6	285	76	-10	+0	—	—	+10	0.1
2019	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	88	79	21	3	0	3	7	20	1	1	3	266	333	418	751	152	316	23	8	333	113	+1	-1	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	407	357	93	17	4	14	43	79	3	6	4	261	345	448	793	188	295	19	11	349	125	+12	-0	—	—	+12	2.3
2022	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	59	52	16	0	1	3	5	10	0	1	1	308	368	519	888	212	317	17	8	376	146	+3	-0	+1	-5	+2	0.0
2022	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	409	353	93	20	3	10	53	70	3	21	9	263	364	422	786	159	304	17	13	354	129	+13	+1	—	—	+12	2.6
2023	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	86	73	19	5	0	0	12	25	1	5	3	260	372	329	701	68	396	29	14	328	109	+1	-0	-3	-5	+2	-0.5
2023	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	391	341	86	14	5	9	46	84	3	17	4	252	346	402	748	150	310	21	12	336	116	+7	+2	—	—	+11	2.0
2024	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	287	234	51	12	1	12	45	63	2	9	4	218	348	432	779	214	238	22	16	343	121	+7	+0	—	—	+8	1.5
2024	27	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	129	106	22	4	3	0	22	27	0	1	2	208	344	302	646	94	275	21	17	302	89	-2	-1	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	367	86	10	3	10	42	83	2	21	4	234	316	360	676	125	274	20	10	305	92	-4	+3	—	—	+12	1.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	145	125	35	5	1	3	17	35	1	6	4	280	371	408	779	128	360	24	12	348	124	+4	-0	-2	-10	+4	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Shane Spencerlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,568 PA	5	1,568	41	13	261	325	410	-12	-6	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	17	6	261	325	410	-5.3	-2.7	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Ramon Martinezlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,955 PA	8	1,955	24	8	264	323	367	+2	-16	2.8	3.2
	/162	664	8	3	264	323	367	+0.6	-5.4	0.9	pk7: 4
#3Wil Corderolast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,639 PA	6	1,639	43	5	262	325	416	-17	-13	3.1	3.1
	/162	664	17	2	262	325	416	-7.0	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Orlando Palmeirolast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,867 PA	8	1,867	11	25	272	347	355	-16	-11	2.5	2.7
	/162	664	4	9	272	347	355	-5.7	-3.9	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Nolan Reimoldlast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,556 PA	8	1,556	56	18	246	323	422	-17	-27	1.6	1.9
	/162	664	24	8	246	323	422	-7.1	-11.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Timo Perezlast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,790 PA	7	1,790	25	23	270	308	383	-15	-9	0.6	0.6
#6Timo Perezlast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,790 PA	/162	664	9	9	270	308	383	-5.7	-3.2	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	236	6	8	258	335	396	-3	-2	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	17	23	258	335	396	-7.1	-4.5	1.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conner Capel (OGILVIE)	29	45	45	55	50	225/290/390	165	255	18	10	22%	7%	83	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕George Lombard 2005 · MLB	29	47→44	47→50	55	45	237/295/377	140	297	15	17	25%	7%	88	+0.9	228/299/385	157	314	17	23	31%	8%	92	+1.2	220/293/373	153	305	17	27	32%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Scott Heineman 2022 · MLB	29	44→54	49→45	51→50	43	223/285/370	147	285	16	16	28%	6%	82	+0.5	211/270/337	126	322	12	16	36%	6%	67	-0.5	158/215/253	95	287	6	23	44%	6%	20	-0.7
✕Eli White 2023 · MLB	29	44→49	48→50	55→60	46	219/294/353	134	297	16	24	30%	9%	82	+0.5	236/305/381	145	323	17	28	30%	8%	94	+1.3	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Jeff Salazar 2010 · MLB	29	47→51	45→50	57→55	50	233/297/360	127	273	12	17	20%	8%	84	+0.6	207/267/316	109	253	13	23	23%	7%	60	-1.0	192/255/290	99	234	12	25	23%	7%	46	-1.2
✕BJ Boyd 2022 · AAA	29	49→56	49→45	56→50	42	249/296/395	146	309	17	13	25%	5%	93	+1.3	259/317/404	145	308	15	12	20%	7%	104	+2.0	289/354/441	153	330	14	10	16%	8%	125	+1.7
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2017 · MLB	29	47→54	50→55	58→60	42	235/291/399	164	318	16	19	31%	7%	92	+1.2	211/274/368	157	327	17	18	38%	8%	77	+0.1	185/251/333	149	300	16	21	42%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Jason Repko 2010 · MLB	29	45→48	46→50	55	42	225/281/358	133	282	14	22	25%	6%	77	+0.1	224/283/344	120	285	13	19	25%	6%	74	-0.1	216/280/326	110	277	12	18	25%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Blake Gailen 2014 · AAA	29	45	48→55	52→50	45	230/277/375	145	264	16	15	20%	6%	79	+0.3	227/302/383	156	244	17	10	15%	10%	93	+1.3	216/293/365	150	234	17	9	16%	10%	83	+0.2
✕Clete Thomas 2013 · MLB	29	40→50	48→50	56→55	36	207/249/352	145	287	16	20	33%	5%	62	-0.9	220/279/347	127	296	13	14	28%	7%	73	-0.1	219/290/337	118	293	12	12	28%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Phillip Ervin 2020 · MLB	28	48→50	49→50	51→55	45	240/303/392	152	300	15	17	25%	7%	95	+1.4	210/286/341	131	280	14	15	28%	9%	76	+0.0	158/235/263	105	215	15	21	33%	9%	31	-1.3
✕Mitch Longo 2022 · AAA	27	46→43	50	59→50	40	235/283/388	154	300	17	22	28%	6%	85	+0.7	225/272/372	147	297	17	14	29%	5%	77	+0.1	184/222/324	140	233	19	3	31%	4%	40	-0.6
✕Reid Gorecki 2009 · AAA	28	48→51	47→50	50→55	46	240/299/371	132	298	16	21	25%	7%	89	+0.9	234/288/353	119	298	10	19	24%	6%	79	+0.3	228/282/345	117	291	8	20	23%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Skye Bolt 2023 · MLB	29	46→39	51→50	54→50	43	236/295/396	160	293	20	14	26%	6%	93	+1.3	232/300/353	121	326	12	10	30%	8%	84	+0.6	229/307/327	97	339	8	5	32%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Matthew den Dekker 2017 · MLB	29	41→51	44→50	52→55	42	205/264/320	115	271	11	17	28%	6%	60	-1.0	209/256/350	141	288	14	15	31%	6%	64	-0.8	212/253/370	158	290	15	14	32%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	34→44	52→55	54→55	46	190/270/352	162	253	20	14	33%	9%	72	-0.2	207/279/371	164	297	19	17	35%	9%	80	+0.4	194/264/366	172	280	19	20	36%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Luke Allen 2006 · AAA	27	44→43	52→50	53→45	46	230/282/394	164	265	20	13	22%	7%	87	+0.8	239/287/367	128	284	14	7	20%	6%	82	+0.5	247/293/355	109	293	11	2	19%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Isaac Galloway 2019 · MLB	29	44→43	49→45	53→55	41	225/276/372	147	282	16	25	27%	6%	79	+0.3	207/250/339	132	302	15	18	35%	5%	59	-1.1	146/169/240	95	242	14	18	46%	2%	-4	-1.6
✕Roger Bernadina 2014 · MLB	30	46→56	45	55→60	47	228/297/351	123	283	12	21	24%	8%	82	+0.5	210/288/324	114	303	11	18	32%	9%	72	-0.2	221/290/331	110	319	11	20	32%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Rafael Ortega 2021 · MLB	30	45→54	50→55	52→55	48	229/290/390	161	268	18	16	22%	8%	89	+1.0	242/319/388	146	292	16	18	22%	10%	101	+1.8	232/322/362	130	281	14	21	21%	11%	92	+0.8