BJ Boyd
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AAAMIL | 427 | .271/.323/.348 | 3 | 6 | 70 | — | .254/.297/.315 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA/AAMIN | 387 | .291/.352/.484 | 16 | 11 | 89 | — | .250/.297/.389 |
| 2022 | 29 | ASEA | 295 | .345/.428/.510 | 6 | 9 | 110 | — | .282/.346/.414 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | AZL Athletics | — | 167 | 143 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 36 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 301 | 401 | 434 | 835 | 133 | 396 | 22 | 14 | 376 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Beloit Snappers | — | 521 | 464 | 104 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 95 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 224 | 300 | 317 | 616 | 93 | 268 | 18 | 9 | 279 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 511 | 458 | 127 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 89 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 277 | 345 | 389 | 733 | 111 | 334 | 17 | 8 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 32 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 267 | 579 | 296 | 9 | 6 | 270 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 458 | 413 | 119 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 74 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 288 | 348 | 395 | 743 | 107 | 332 | 16 | 7 | 330 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 578 | 533 | 172 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 74 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 323 | 369 | 428 | 797 | 105 | 364 | 13 | 6 | 353 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 427 | 391 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 271 | 323 | 348 | 671 | 77 | 323 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 100 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 88 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 266 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 287 | 260 | 83 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 49 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 319 | 377 | 550 | 927 | 231 | 342 | 17 | 7 | 402 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 295 | 255 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 35 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 345 | 428 | 510 | 938 | 165 | 378 | 12 | 11 | 413 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 167 | 152 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 224 | 293 | 322 | 616 | 99 | 331 | 31 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 521 | 479 | 95 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 133 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 198 | 253 | 269 | 522 | 71 | 257 | 26 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 511 | 469 | 120 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 111 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 256 | 309 | 339 | 648 | 83 | 322 | 22 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 32 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 233 | 515 | 271 | 12 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 458 | 426 | 114 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 96 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 268 | 308 | 357 | 665 | 89 | 319 | 21 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 578 | 544 | 149 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 96 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 274 | 309 | 371 | 681 | 97 | 317 | 17 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 427 | 397 | 101 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 254 | 297 | 315 | 612 | 60 | 315 | 20 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 100 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 172 | 230 | 247 | 477 | 75 | 260 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 287 | 267 | 74 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 60 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 277 | 320 | 438 | 759 | 161 | 315 | 21 | 5 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 295 | 266 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 282 | 346 | 414 | 759 | 132 | 320 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 167 | 152 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 224 | 293 | 322 | 616 | 99 | 333 | 31 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics | — | 167 | 143 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 36 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 301 | 401 | 434 | 835 | 133 | 396 | 22 | 14 | 376 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 521 | 479 | 95 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 133 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 198 | 253 | 269 | 522 | 71 | 265 | 26 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Beloit Snappers | — | 521 | 464 | 104 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 95 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 224 | 300 | 317 | 616 | 93 | 268 | 18 | 9 | 279 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 511 | 469 | 120 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 111 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 256 | 309 | 339 | 648 | 83 | 329 | 22 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 511 | 458 | 127 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 89 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 277 | 345 | 389 | 733 | 111 | 334 | 17 | 8 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 457 | 121 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 100 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 265 | 304 | 348 | 652 | 83 | 323 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 490 | 443 | 127 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 77 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 287 | 346 | 386 | 732 | 99 | 330 | 16 | 7 | 326 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 578 | 544 | 149 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 96 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 274 | 309 | 371 | 681 | 97 | 321 | 17 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Midland RockHounds | — | 578 | 533 | 172 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 74 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 323 | 369 | 428 | 797 | 105 | 364 | 13 | 6 | 353 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 427 | 397 | 101 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 254 | 297 | 315 | 612 | 60 | 319 | 20 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 427 | 391 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 271 | 323 | 348 | 671 | 77 | 323 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 360 | 90 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 92 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 250 | 297 | 389 | 686 | 139 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 387 | 351 | 102 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 28 | 75 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 291 | 352 | 484 | 836 | 194 | 327 | 19 | 7 | 366 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 295 | 266 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 282 | 346 | 414 | 759 | 132 | 324 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | A RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 295 | 255 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 35 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 345 | 428 | 510 | 938 | 165 | 378 | 12 | 11 | 413 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 167 | 150 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 227 | 293 | 327 | 620 | 100 | 331 | 31 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 521 | 481 | 95 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 133 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 198 | 253 | 268 | 521 | 71 | 257 | 26 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 511 | 470 | 120 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 111 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 255 | 309 | 338 | 647 | 83 | 322 | 22 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 461 | 121 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 100 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 262 | 304 | 345 | 649 | 82 | 316 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 578 | 545 | 149 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 96 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 273 | 309 | 371 | 680 | 97 | 317 | 17 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 427 | 400 | 101 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 253 | 297 | 312 | 609 | 60 | 315 | 20 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 360 | 90 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 92 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 250 | 297 | 389 | 686 | 139 | 301 | 24 | 5 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 295 | 267 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 48 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 281 | 346 | 412 | 758 | 131 | 320 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3376 | 3124 | 785 | 116 | 29 | 38 | 181 | 719 | 33 | 98 | 36 | 251 | 299 | 343 | 643 | 92 | 313 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 76 | -95 | +5 | +0 | -36 | +73 | -5.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 151 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 138 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 92 | 313 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 76 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 295 PAwOBA .406 → .331 (−75)K% 11.9% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.86% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 23.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.006 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .406 → .331; ISO .165 → .138; BABIP .378 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 287 PAwOBA .393 → .329 (−64)K% 17.1% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.07% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.97% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.59% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 4.86% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .393 → .329; ISO .231 → .168; BABIP .342 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 100 PAwOBA .259 → .214 (−45)K% 26.0% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.121 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.95% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .259 → .214; ISO .088 → .069; BABIP .281 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAANashville Sounds · 427 PAwOBA .294 → .272 (−22)K% 16.6% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.63% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.09% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.56% | ÷0.986 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 26.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.937 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.988 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 111, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .294 → .272; ISO .077 → .066; BABIP .323 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAMidland RockHounds · 578 PAwOBA .346 → .295 (−50)K% 12.8% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.80% | ÷0.939 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.54% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.76% | ÷1.142 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.987 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷0.977 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.862 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 128, 2B 97, 3B 95, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .346 → .295; ISO .105 → .098; BABIP .364 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Stockton Ports · 458 PAwOBA .321 → .289 (−32)K% 16.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.16% | ÷1.035 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.73% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 27.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.13% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.990 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 98, K 107, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .321 → .289; ISO .107 → .093; BABIP .332 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAANashville Sounds · 32 PAwOBA .263 → .231 (−32)K% 9.4% → 12.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 12.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.979 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.050 | 27.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.856 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .263 → .231; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .296 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Stockton Ports · 511 PAwOBA .319 → .281 (−39)K% 17.4% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.42% | ÷1.072 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.47% | ÷0.959 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 25.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.926 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.715 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 243, 1B 92, 2B 109, 3B 85, K 114, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .319 → .281; ISO .111 → .084; BABIP .334 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).