Miles Mastrobuoni

3B Tacoma Rainiers

Age 31 L/R 5'9" / 185 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 2.837S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAACHC	244	.218/.305/.329	4	15	43	—	.188/.251/.272
2024	28	MLBCHC	106	.194/.248/.224	0	2	33	-0.5
2025	29	AAASEA	142	.296/.421/.417	1	9	97	—	.258/.343/.363
2025	29	MLBSEA	175	.250/.325/.296	1	6	77	0.1
2026	30	AAASEA	219	.247/.341/.379	3	7	61	—	.211/.276/.312
2026	30	MLBSEA	30	.192/.250/.192	0	0	20	-0.1
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBSEA	19	.245/.315/.340	0	1	88	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBSEA	57	.239/.308/.326	1	1	82	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.837First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.6M2028Arb-2$0.6M2029Ext$1M2030Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed50

xwOBA45

Avg EV35

Bat Spd14

Barrel%10

CompsTike Redman (age 31) · Mike Freeman (age 30) · Shawn O'Malley (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .315 / .340

PA19

HR0

K%21

BB%11

BABIP301

ISO59

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

630.262

POWER35

Barrel%

102.1

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

1467.5

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

5027.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	439	379	100	17	3	3	51	66	0	18	7	264	351	348	699	84	307	15	12	315	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	48	43	11	0	0	0	5	7	0	1	1	256	333	256	589		306	15	10	280	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	345	287	83	14	3	1	50	59	0	8	8	289	395	369	764	80	358	17	14	344	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	430	381	114	10	6	4	42	82	0	15	13	299	369	388	757	89	370	19	10	338	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	185	161	47	10	3	0	24	48	0	2	4	292	384	391	775	99	416	26	13	352	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	249	221	66	14	2	5	27	43	0	6	3	299	375	448	823	149	351	17	11	366	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		300	35	6	201	20	-2	+0	-1	+2	+0	0.0
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	573	507	152	32	3	16	63	95	1	23	3	300	378	469	848	170	342	17	11	376	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	47	37	9	2	0	1	10	7	0	1	0	243	404	378	783	135	276	15	21	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	149	133	32	5	0	1	13	32	0	13	1	241	308	301	609	60	310	21	9	276	72	-5	+2	-0	+1	+3	0.1
2023	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	165	129	38	11	3	2	36	39	0	9	0	295	448	473	921	178	409	24	22	413	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	106	98	19	3	0	0	7	17	0	2	0	194	248	224	472	31	232	16	7	219	33	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	28	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	244	216	47	12	0	4	27	44	0	15	1	218	305	329	633	111	256	18	11	289	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	175	152	38	4	0	1	17	29	0	6	3	250	325	296	621	46	301	17	10	280	77	-5	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.1
2025	29	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	142	115	34	11	0	1	25	18	0	9	2	296	421	417	839	122	337	13	18	377	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	30	26	5	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	192	250	192	442		294	33	7	197	20	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2026	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	219	190	47	12	2	3	27	40	0	7	2	247	341	379	720	132	295	18	12	324	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	477	425	97	12	0	2	40	94	0	22	4	228	295	271	565	42	286	20	8	257	60	-23	+3	-0	+7	+10	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	439	396	88	13	2	2	34	92	0	18	7	222	284	280	564	58	271	21	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	48	45	11	0	0	0	3	8	0	1	1	244	292	244	536		299	17	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	345	301	74	13	2	1	36	85	0	8	8	246	326	312	639	66	325	25	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	430	395	105	9	5	4	28	101	0	15	13	266	314	344	659	78	334	23	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	185	168	47	8	3	0	17	56	0	2	4	280	346	363	709	83	413	30	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	249	231	58	11	2	4	17	54	0	6	3	251	302	368	670	117	311	22	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		300	35	6	198	20	-2	+0	-1	+2	+0	0.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	573	529	136	25	3	11	41	114	1	23	3	257	312	378	690	121	304	20	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	149	133	32	5	0	1	13	32	0	13	1	241	308	301	609	60	310	21	9	275	72	-5	+2	-0	+1	+3	0.1
2023	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	165	141	35	9	3	2	24	46	0	9	0	248	358	397	755	149	353	28	15	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	106	98	19	3	0	0	7	17	0	2	0	194	248	224	472	31	232	16	7	218	33	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
2024	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	244	224	42	10	0	3	19	53	0	15	1	188	251	272	523	85	232	22	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	175	152	38	4	0	1	17	29	0	6	3	250	325	296	621	46	301	17	10	281	77	-5	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	142	124	32	10	0	1	16	21	0	9	2	258	343	363	706	105	295	15	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	30	26	5	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	192	250	192	442		294	33	7	198	20	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2026	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	219	199	42	10	2	2	18	48	0	7	2	211	276	312	588	101	258	22	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	439	396	88	13	2	2	34	92	0	18	7	222	284	280	564	58	279	21	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	439	379	100	17	3	3	51	66	0	18	7	264	351	348	699	84	307	15	12	315	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	393	346	85	13	2	1	39	93	0	9	9	246	322	303	626	58	331	24	10	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	393	330	94	14	3	1	55	66	0	9	9	285	387	355	742	70	351	17	14	336	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	430	395	105	9	5	4	28	101	0	15	13	266	314	344	659	78	346	23	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	430	381	114	10	6	4	42	82	0	15	13	299	369	388	757	89	370	19	10	338	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	434	399	104	20	4	4	34	110	0	8	7	261	319	361	680	100	350	25	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	434	382	113	24	5	5	51	91	0	8	7	296	379	424	803	128	376	21	12	360	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	637	588	150	27	3	12	46	130	1	25	3	255	310	372	683	117	308	20	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	637	560	164	34	3	17	74	108	1	25	3	293	376	455	832	162	336	17	12	370	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	314	274	67	14	3	3	37	78	0	22	1	245	334	350	685	106	332	25	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	314	262	70	16	3	3	49	71	0	22	1	267	383	385	768	118	356	23	16	348	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	322	61	13	0	3	26	70	0	17	1	189	250	258	508	68	232	20	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	350	314	66	15	0	4	34	61	0	17	1	210	287	296	584	86	248	17	10	268	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	276	71	14	0	2	33	50	0	15	5	257	337	330	666	72	304	16	10	295	86	-5	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.5
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	317	267	72	15	0	2	42	47	0	15	5	270	369	348	717	79	317	15	13	323	86	-5	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.5
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	249	225	47	10	2	2	20	58	0	7	2	209	273	298	571	89	268	23	8	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	249	216	52	12	2	3	29	50	0	7	2	241	331	356	687	116	295	20	12	308	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	439	402	88	13	2	2	34	92	0	18	7	219	284	276	560	57	271	21	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	393	351	85	13	2	1	39	93	0	9	9	242	322	299	621	57	322	24	10	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	430	399	105	9	5	4	28	101	0	15	13	263	314	341	655	78	334	23	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	434	397	104	20	4	4	34	110	0	8	7	262	319	363	681	101	354	25	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	637	585	150	27	3	12	46	130	1	25	3	256	310	374	685	118	304	20	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	314	274	67	14	3	3	37	78	0	22	1	245	334	350	685	106	333	25	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	321	61	13	0	3	26	70	0	17	1	190	250	259	509	69	232	20	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	281	71	14	0	2	33	50	0	15	5	253	337	324	660	71	298	16	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	47	10	2	2	20	58	0	7	2	207	273	295	569	88	262	23	8	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	321	61	13	0	3	26	70	0	17	1	190	250	259	509	69	232	20	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	281	71	14	0	2	33	50	0	15	5	253	337	324	660	71	298	16	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	47	10	2	2	20	58	0	7	2	207	273	295	569	88	262	23	8	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SEA	10%	299	269	66	13	1	3	27	60	1	10	2	247	317	344	660	96	303	20	9	298	88	-4	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	245	315	340	654	95	301	21	11	296	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SEA	33%	174	157	38	7	1	2	15	36	0	4	1	241	310	330	639	89	299	21	9	290	82	-4	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	SEA	33%	57	52	12	2	0	1	5	12	0	1	0	239	308	326	634	87	296	21	9	288	82	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	534	477	109	14	0	3	45	106	0	23	4	229	295	277	572	48	286	20	8	260	76	-24	+3	-1	+7	+12	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	133	17	0	4	55	129	0	28	5	229	296	279	575	50	285	20	8	260	76	-29	+4	-1	+8	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3927	3548	859	149	23	37	329	856	2	147	50	242	307	328	635	86	307	22	8	281	76	-29	+4	-3	+8	+18	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	143	25	4	6	54	142	0	24	8	244	307	330	637	87	309	22	8	281	76	-22	+3	-2	+6	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 219 PAwOBA .319 → .259 (−60)K% 18.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.26%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.33%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.010	×0.962	18.06%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.010	×0.962	6.45%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.010	×0.962	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .319 → .259; ISO .132 → .105; BABIP .295 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 142 PAwOBA .374 → .312 (−62)K% 12.7% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.68%	÷1.035	×1.200	—	—	14.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.61%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	11.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.68%	÷1.019	×0.930	×1.016	×0.972	20.45%
Doubles /BIP	11.34%	÷0.985	×0.830	×1.016	×0.972	9.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.016	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.03%	÷1.204	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .374 → .312; ISO .122 → .102; BABIP .337 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 244 PAwOBA .281 → .232 (−48)K% 18.0% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.03%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.66%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.02%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.017	×0.982	16.84%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷0.962	×0.830	×1.017	×0.982	6.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.017	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .281 → .232; ISO .111 → .083; BABIP .256 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 165 PAwOBA .404 → .329 (−74)K% 23.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.64%	÷1.019	×1.200	—	—	27.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.82%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.992	14.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.991	×0.992	21.81%
Doubles /BIP	12.22%	÷1.049	×0.830	×0.991	×0.992	9.50%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷0.916	×0.970	×0.991	×0.992	3.47%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .404 → .329; ISO .178 → .156; BABIP .409 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 573 PAwOBA .367 → .300 (−68)K% 16.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.58%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.99%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.18%
HBP% /PA	0.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.16%
Singles /BIP	24.51%	÷0.988	×0.930	×1.002	×1.003	23.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.77%	÷1.091	×0.830	×1.002	×1.003	5.94%
Triples /BIP	0.73%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.002	×1.003	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	3.88%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .367 → .300; ISO .170 → .124; BABIP .342 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 249 PAwOBA .357 → .298 (−59)K% 17.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.27%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.44%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×0.988	7.01%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.28%	÷1.019	×0.940	×1.000	×0.988	23.04%
Doubles /BIP	7.87%	÷1.046	×0.870	×1.000	×0.988	6.46%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷0.950	×0.920	×1.000	×0.988	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	2.81%	÷0.938	×0.780	—	×0.988	2.31%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .357 → .298; ISO .149 → .125; BABIP .351 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 185 PAwOBA .344 → .308 (−36)K% 25.9% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.95%	÷1.029	×1.200	—	—	30.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.97%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.09%	÷0.945	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	31.65%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷1.067	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	7.36%
Triples /BIP	2.65%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×1.018	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .344 → .308; ISO .099 → .083; BABIP .416 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 430 PAwOBA .328 → .284 (−45)K% 19.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.07%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	23.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.07%	÷0.963	×0.680	—	×1.012	6.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.44%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.964	×1.012	28.86%
Doubles /BIP	3.34%	÷1.028	×0.910	×0.964	×1.012	2.89%
Triples /BIP	2.01%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.964	×1.012	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.34%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.18%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .328 → .284; ISO .089 → .074; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
#4Phil Linz'62-'68 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,518 PA	2.3	1,518	11	13	238*	301*	338*	+10	-0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	5	6	+4.3	-0.2	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jeff Huson'88-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,126 PA	3.2	2,126	8	64	229*	298*	304*	+11	-12	-2.0	0.0
/162	664	2	20	+3.5	-3.6	-0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	506	3	23	232	295	285	+2	-0	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	4	30	+2.4	-0.6	-0.1	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miles Mastrobuoni (OGILVIE)	31	60	35	60	60	245/314/341	96	303	2	7	20%	9%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tike Redman 2008 · MLB	31	55→59	39→45	57→55	49	257/298/348	92	280	5	24	11%	5%	82	+0.0	261/312/349	88	291	5	17	11%	7%	88	+0.4	269/329/344	75	300	3	13	11%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Mike Freeman 2018 · MLB	30	53→59	39→45	56→55	44	253/303/339	86	324	6	13	23%	6%	82	+0.0	234/295/341	107	310	11	10	26%	7%	80	-0.1	214/282/313	99	285	11	7	27%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	53→58	40	56→60	47	251/312/351	100	312	7	21	21%	7%	89	+0.5	227/283/326	99	290	8	12	23%	6%	73	-0.6	210/260/288	78	269	6	6	23%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Travis Jankowski 2022 · MLB	31	51→61	38→40	52→65	55	240/320/326	87	298	5	20	20%	10%	87	+0.4	231/319/305	74	291	4	30	20%	11%	82	+0.0	230/309/287	57	284	3	34	18%	9%	73	-0.2
✕Willie Bloomquist 2010 · MLB	32	55	38→40	59→60	50	260/313/341	81	304	6	29	16%	7%	86	+0.3	261/303/353	92	301	7	24	15%	6%	86	+0.3	293/322/363	70	348	1	7	15%	4%	94	+0.3
✕Andy Fox 2003 · MLB	32	50→52	41→40	58→60	52	238/317/335	97	285	8	28	19%	9%	88	+0.4	215/288/314	99	272	8	17	23%	8%	72	-0.7	193/267/257	64	262	0	5	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Joe Inglett 2009 · MLB	31	56→63	41→45	51→50	50	267/322/376	109	304	6	12	14%	7%	98	+1.2	259/321/371	112	312	6	11	18%	8%	97	+1.1	280/342/398	118	340	4	10	18%	8%	109	+0.7
✕Nick Punto 2009 · MLB	31	54→60	38→40	53→55	54	250/317/336	86	294	3	19	16%	9%	87	+0.4	236/319/316	80	283	4	16	16%	11%	84	+0.1	243/328/321	79	300	3	9	18%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Pokey Reese 2004 · MLB	31	49→54	41→45	55	49	237/296/333	96	283	8	20	19%	7%	79	-0.2	227/282/330	103	281	10	14	22%	7%	73	-0.6	214/261/294	79	270	7	13	22%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Michael Bourn 2015 · MLB	32	54→62	41→45	56→65	47	254/311/362	108	328	6	20	23%	8%	91	+0.6	238/298/322	84	310	5	18	23%	8%	77	-0.3	232/295/301	69	301	3	21	22%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Cory Sullivan 2011 · MLB	31	50→60	40→45	50	50	239/294/333	94	278	6	11	16%	7%	78	-0.3	217/288/311	94	265	8	11	20%	9%	72	-0.7	166/256/198	32	207	0	8	18%	11%	34	-0.7
✕Grégor Blanco 2015 · MLB	31	54→62	41→45	55→60	53	257/329/364	107	311	7	20	19%	9%	98	+1.2	255/326/367	112	309	8	20	18%	9%	98	+1.2	253/329/357	104	311	6	24	19%	10%	97	+0.6
✕Hernan Iribarren 2014 · AAA	30	53→63	37→40	54→55	46	247/296/321	74	308	4	18	20%	6%	76	-0.4	236/281/301	65	293	3	9	19%	6%	65	-1.2	255/287/326	71	309	3	3	18%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Don Kelly 2010 · MLB	30	52→59	41→45	56→55	49	248/298/351	103	279	7	18	14%	6%	84	+0.1	241/290/362	121	269	13	13	16%	6%	84	+0.1	218/289/328	110	237	12	8	14%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Rich Thompson 2010 · AAA	31	51→57	39→45	61→65	45	240/291/334	94	291	5	25	19%	6%	77	-0.3	247/294/344	97	300	5	36	19%	5%	80	-0.1	253/301/350	97	307	4	44	18%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Irving Falu 2013 · MLB	30	58→62	39→40	53→55	47	275/310/364	88	309	5	20	13%	5%	91	+0.6	244/284/318	74	275	4	18	12%	5%	70	-0.8	251/289/337	86	274	7	13	11%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Alden Carrithers 2015 · AAA	30	52→59	36→30	51→55	54	245/317/312	67	279	4	18	13%	8%	82	+0.0	238/306/321	83	275	6	15	15%	8%	80	-0.2	243/309/288	45	274	3	14	12%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Jordany Valdespin 2019 · AAA	31	53→56	41→50	51→55	47	255/308/354	100	298	8	19	17%	6%	88	+0.5	241/285/369	128	268	15	13	16%	5%	84	+0.1	240/272/356	116	255	15	11	13%	3%	72	-0.3
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2014 · MLB	31	51→57	37→40	53→60	48	241/296/317	76	295	3	21	19%	7%	74	-0.5	216/280/287	71	255	4	15	16%	8%	63	-1.4	199/267/254	55	231	2	14	13%	8%	48	-1.2

Miles Mastrobuoni

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps