DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
CF Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAAMIN | 505 | .300/.375/.476 | 14 | 36 | 95 | — | .260/.319/.392 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAMIN | 161 | .250/.340/.436 | 3 | 7 | 76 | — | .226/.289/.377 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBMIN | 88 | .107/.138/.179 | 2 | 10 | -17 | -1.2 | |
| 2026 | 29 | AAAATL | 426 | .247/.304/.346 | 6 | 40 | 47 | — | .211/.252/.285 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBATL | 16 | .206/.255/.318 | 0 | 1 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBATL | 69 | .205/.254/.314 | 1 | 4 | 58 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 116 | 103 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 301 | 374 | 427 | 801 | 126 | 369 | 17 | 10 | 355 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 143 | 124 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 137 | 246 | 161 | 408 | 24 | 200 | 28 | 13 | 203 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 165 | 141 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 50 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 199 | 302 | 433 | 735 | 234 | 241 | 30 | 11 | 319 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 468 | 425 | 115 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 108 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 271 | 332 | 395 | 727 | 125 | 344 | 23 | 7 | 324 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 152 | 129 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 264 | 375 | 364 | 739 | 101 | 333 | 20 | 12 | 341 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 397 | 361 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 93 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 305 | 365 | 488 | 852 | 183 | 377 | 23 | 8 | 374 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 443 | 133 | 22 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 116 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 300 | 375 | 476 | 851 | 176 | 370 | 23 | 10 | 371 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 88 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 107 | 138 | 179 | 317 | 71 | 143 | 38 | 2 | 143 | -17 | -12 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 161 | 140 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 250 | 340 | 436 | 775 | 186 | 311 | 22 | 11 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 393 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 119 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 247 | 304 | 346 | 650 | 99 | 338 | 28 | 7 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 88 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 107 | 138 | 179 | 317 | 71 | 143 | 38 | 2 | 143 | -17 | -12 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +2 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 116 | 108 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 278 | 315 | 593 | 83 | 308 | 24 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 143 | 129 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 183 | 124 | 307 | 23 | 172 | 39 | 9 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 165 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 150 | 228 | 333 | 562 | 184 | 200 | 41 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 468 | 435 | 98 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 138 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 225 | 274 | 317 | 591 | 92 | 314 | 29 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 152 | 136 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 250 | 329 | 324 | 652 | 74 | 338 | 25 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 397 | 370 | 95 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 112 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 257 | 304 | 389 | 693 | 132 | 345 | 28 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 457 | 119 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 140 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 260 | 319 | 392 | 710 | 131 | 334 | 28 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 88 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 107 | 138 | 179 | 317 | 71 | 143 | 38 | 2 | 143 | -17 | -12 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 161 | 146 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 289 | 377 | 666 | 151 | 288 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 403 | 85 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 143 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 211 | 252 | 285 | 537 | 74 | 313 | 34 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 116 | 108 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 278 | 315 | 593 | 83 | 309 | 24 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | Elizabethton Twins | — | 116 | 103 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 301 | 374 | 427 | 801 | 126 | 369 | 17 | 10 | 355 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 143 | 129 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 183 | 124 | 307 | 23 | 176 | 39 | 9 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 143 | 124 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 137 | 246 | 161 | 408 | 24 | 200 | 28 | 13 | 203 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 165 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 150 | 228 | 333 | 562 | 184 | 211 | 41 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 165 | 141 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 50 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 199 | 302 | 433 | 735 | 234 | 241 | 30 | 11 | 319 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 468 | 435 | 98 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 138 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 225 | 274 | 317 | 591 | 92 | 314 | 29 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 468 | 425 | 115 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 108 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 271 | 332 | 395 | 727 | 125 | 344 | 23 | 7 | 324 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 506 | 130 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 150 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 257 | 313 | 379 | 692 | 123 | 345 | 27 | 6 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 549 | 490 | 144 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 124 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 294 | 367 | 455 | 823 | 161 | 365 | 23 | 9 | 365 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 457 | 119 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 140 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 260 | 319 | 392 | 710 | 131 | 347 | 28 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 443 | 133 | 22 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 116 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 300 | 375 | 476 | 851 | 176 | 370 | 23 | 10 | 371 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 230 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 77 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 183 | 236 | 304 | 540 | 122 | 252 | 31 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 249 | 224 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 69 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 196 | 268 | 339 | 608 | 143 | 257 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 403 | 85 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 143 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 211 | 252 | 285 | 537 | 74 | 315 | 34 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 393 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 119 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 247 | 304 | 346 | 650 | 99 | 338 | 28 | 7 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 116 | 108 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 278 | 315 | 593 | 83 | 308 | 24 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 143 | 129 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 183 | 124 | 307 | 23 | 172 | 39 | 9 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 165 | 149 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 148 | 228 | 329 | 557 | 181 | 200 | 41 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 468 | 436 | 98 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 138 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 225 | 274 | 317 | 590 | 92 | 314 | 29 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 503 | 130 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 150 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 258 | 313 | 382 | 694 | 123 | 343 | 27 | 6 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 461 | 119 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 140 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 258 | 319 | 388 | 707 | 130 | 334 | 28 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 231 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 77 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 182 | 236 | 303 | 539 | 121 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 401 | 85 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 143 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 212 | 252 | 287 | 539 | 75 | 313 | 34 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 505 | 461 | 119 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 140 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 258 | 319 | 388 | 707 | 130 | 334 | 28 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 249 | 231 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 77 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 182 | 236 | 303 | 539 | 121 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 426 | 401 | 85 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 143 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 212 | 252 | 287 | 539 | 75 | 313 | 34 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 10% | 380 | 354 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 115 | 3 | 26 | 6 | 206 | 255 | 318 | 573 | 112 | 280 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 60 | -18 | +3 | -0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 255 | 318 | 573 | 112 | 280 | 31 | 6 | 256 | 60 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | ATL | 27% | 254 | 236 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 77 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 205 | 254 | 314 | 567 | 109 | 278 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -13 | +2 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | ATL | 27% | 69 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 254 | 314 | 567 | 109 | 278 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 157 | 149 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 148 | 186 | 235 | 421 | 87 | 207 | 34 | 4 | 192 | 65 | -16 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +3 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 617 | 90 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 224 | 4 | 58 | 17 | 146 | 184 | 230 | 414 | 84 | 205 | 34 | 4 | 192 | 65 | -65 | +5 | -1 | -10 | +14 | -5.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3030 | 2796 | 611 | 98 | 32 | 46 | 177 | 924 | 30 | 215 | 35 | 219 | 272 | 326 | 598 | 107 | 305 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -32 | +4 | -2 | -1 | +11 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 131 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 198 | 6 | 46 | 8 | 218 | 271 | 327 | 598 | 108 | 305 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -42 | +5 | -3 | -2 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 426 PAwOBA .286 → .237 (−49)K% 27.9% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×0.982 | 25.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×0.982 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×0.982 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .286 → .237; ISO .099 → .075; BABIP .338 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 161 PAwOBA .336 → .280 (−56)K% 22.4% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.36% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.31% | ÷0.944 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.58% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 2.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.88% | ÷1.253 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .336 → .280; ISO .186 → .146; BABIP .311 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 505 PAwOBA .368 → .308 (−60)K% 23.0% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.97% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.50% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 25.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.73% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.043 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.003 | 2.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.28% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .368 → .308; ISO .176 → .136; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 397 PAwOBA .366 → .303 (−63)K% 23.4% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.43% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.99% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .366 → .303; ISO .183 → .138; BABIP .377 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 152 PAwOBA .331 → .298 (−33)K% 20.4% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.39% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.84% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×1.018 | 29.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.341 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.018 | 0.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.977 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×1.018 | 3.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .331 → .298; ISO .101 → .087; BABIP .333 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 468 PAwOBA .318 → .265 (−53)K% 23.1% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.001 | ×0.840 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .318 → .265; ISO .125 → .100; BABIP .344 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 165 PAwOBA .317 → .239 (−78)K% 30.3% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷0.992 | ×1.350 | — | — | 41.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 12.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 6.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .239; ISO .234 → .184; BABIP .241 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 143 PAwOBA .200 → .148 (−52)K% 28.0% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.97% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷0.960 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 15.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 0.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.045 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 109, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .200 → .148; ISO .024 → .017; BABIP .200 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).