Andrew Velazquez

SS Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 S/R 5'8" / 170 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 1.345 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	622	.228/.296/.370	19	41	48	—	.193/.235/.291
2025	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	514	.232/.290/.316	5	30	39	—	.202/.244/.273
2026	32	AAAKC	230	.270/.332/.370	3	13	61	—	.238/.283/.314
2026	32	MLBKC	15	.067/.067/.067	0	1	-73	0.0
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBKC	23	.208/.256/.308	0	1	60	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBKC	10	.200/.246/.290	0	0	52	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.345First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.2M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2026

Speed73

Bat Spd37

Avg EV33

Barrel%31

xwOBA10

CompsBilly Hamilton (age 31) · Pete Orr (age 32) · Craig Gentry (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .256 / .308

PA23

HR0

K%30

BB%4

BABIP280

ISO45

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.190

POWER40

Barrel%

315.8

Avg EV

3387.8

Bat Spd

3769.9

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7328.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2019

Service 1.345 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	195	166	48	8	7	1	23	47	1	22	3	289	379	440	819	151	385	24	12	356	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	257	235	61	10	4	0	21	59	0	7	2	260	320	336	656	77	345	23	8	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	623	544	158	18	15	9	62	136	7	50	15	290	370	428	798	138	369	22	10	352	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	99	90	25	1	0	2	6	23	1	5	1	278	330	356	685	78	348	23	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	203	186	54	9	2	0	15	53	0	5	8	290	343	360	703	70	406	26	7	316	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	GCL Rays	—	15	13	3	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	231	333	231	564		429	40	13	274	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	313	286	75	6	2	1	21	71	1	11	6	262	315	308	623	45	343	23	7	282	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	147	130	33	6	2	0	12	25	3	14	3	254	331	331	662	77	311	17	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	414	374	88	17	4	9	30	112	3	18	9	235	297	374	671	139	312	27	7	296	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	461	423	109	16	6	12	34	124	3	29	3	258	317	409	726	151	338	27	7	323	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	36	35	8	2	1	2	1	11	0	2	0	229	250	514	764	286	273	31	3	327	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	24	23	2	2	0	0	1	13	0	1	0	87	125	174	299	87	200	54	4	136	-23	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2019	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	187	174	46	13	2	4	10	39	2	3	5	264	312	431	743	167	321	21	5	327	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	33	29	15	6	0	2	3	4	1	0	0	517	576	931	1.507	414	565	12	9	637	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	33	31	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	1	129	156	129	285		182	27	3	131	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	63	10	1	1	0	10	23	0	4	2	159	274	206	480	48	250	30	13	222	36	-6	+0	+1	+1	+2	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	68	67	15	4	1	1	1	23	0	4	1	224	235	358	594	134	326	34	1	260	61	-3	+0	-2	+4	+1	0.0
2021	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	306	264	72	20	3	7	37	87	1	29	3	273	364	451	815	178	378	28	12	358	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	349	322	63	8	0	9	15	119	3	17	1	196	238	304	543	109	274	34	4	239	48	-22	+3	+5	+4	+8	-0.2
2022	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	20	16	5	3	0	1	4	5	0	2	0	312	450	688	1.137	375	400	25	20	481	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	94	81	14	3	0	2	10	30	0	13	3	173	264	284	548	111	245	32	11	246	53	-5	+1	-1	+3	+2	-0.1
2023	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	156	134	28	5	1	3	19	48	0	8	1	209	307	328	636	119	301	31	12	287	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	429	104	17	0	16	34	157	1	33	1	242	300	394	694	152	340	33	7	304	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	149	128	23	5	0	3	19	44	0	8	4	180	286	289	575	109	247	30	13	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	368	330	80	19	0	5	28	93	2	25	4	242	306	345	651	103	321	25	8	289	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	146	135	28	3	1	0	8	29	0	5	2	207	250	244	494	37	264	20	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	67	67	67	133		77	13	0	60	-73	-3	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.0
2026	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	230	200	54	9	1	3	19	53	1	13	2	270	332	370	702	100	349	23	8	307	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	627	571	105	18	2	12	37	210	3	40	7	184	237	285	523	102	264	33	6	232	43	-42	+5	+2	+15	+14	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	195	175	39	6	5	1	14	68	1	22	3	223	284	331	616	109	325	35	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	257	241	52	8	3	0	15	85	0	7	2	216	262	274	536	58	332	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	623	562	139	14	12	7	45	186	7	50	15	247	311	352	663	105	344	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	203	189	45	8	1	0	12	77	0	5	8	238	284	291	575	53	399	38	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	143	200	143	343		346	60	7	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	313	292	63	4	1	1	15	104	1	11	6	216	256	247	503	31	322	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	414	384	80	16	3	7	21	137	3	18	9	208	255	320	575	112	298	33	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	461	432	97	12	6	11	25	144	3	29	3	225	272	356	628	132	310	31	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	36	35	8	2	1	2	1	13	0	2	0	229	250	514	764	286	251	36	3	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	24	23	2	2	0	0	1	13	0	1	0	87	125	174	299	87	200	54	4	134	-23	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2019	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	187	177	42	11	2	3	7	47	2	3	5	237	274	373	647	136	302	25	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	33	30	10	4	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	333	394	567	961	233	404	18	6	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	63	10	1	1	0	10	23	0	4	2	159	274	206	480	48	250	30	13	221	36	-6	+0	+1	+1	+2	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	68	67	15	4	1	1	1	23	0	4	1	224	235	358	594	134	326	34	1	259	61	-3	+0	-2	+4	+1	0.0
2021	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	306	275	63	18	2	4	26	105	1	29	3	229	298	353	651	124	343	34	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	349	322	63	8	0	9	15	119	3	17	1	196	238	304	543	109	274	34	4	239	48	-22	+3	+5	+4	+8	-0.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	20	17	5	3	0	1	3	6	0	2	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	341	30	15	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	94	81	14	3	0	2	10	30	0	13	3	173	264	284	548	111	245	32	11	247	53	-5	+1	-1	+3	+2	-0.1
2023	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	156	140	27	5	1	2	13	57	0	8	1	193	261	286	547	93	288	37	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	440	85	13	0	10	23	197	1	33	1	193	235	291	526	98	308	42	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	368	341	69	15	0	3	17	114	2	25	4	202	244	273	517	70	281	31	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	67	67	67	133		77	13	0	61	-73	-3	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.0
2026	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	230	210	50	8	1	2	12	64	1	13	2	238	283	314	597	76	311	28	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	195	175	39	6	5	1	14	68	1	22	3	223	284	331	616	109	345	35	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	195	166	48	8	7	1	23	47	1	22	3	289	379	440	819	151	385	24	12	356	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	257	241	52	8	3	0	15	85	0	7	2	216	262	274	536	58	331	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	257	235	61	10	4	0	21	59	0	7	2	260	320	336	656	77	345	23	8	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	722	651	163	17	14	9	52	215	8	55	16	250	314	361	675	111	356	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	722	634	183	19	15	11	68	159	8	55	16	289	364	418	782	129	366	22	9	346	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	218	203	47	8	1	0	13	86	0	5	8	232	278	281	559	49	402	39	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	218	199	57	9	2	0	17	59	0	5	8	286	343	352	694	65	407	27	8	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	460	426	93	6	2	1	23	153	4	25	9	218	265	249	514	31	335	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	460	416	108	12	4	1	33	96	4	25	9	260	320	315	635	55	332	21	7	288	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	414	384	80	16	3	7	21	137	3	18	9	208	255	320	575	112	304	33	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	414	374	88	17	4	9	30	112	3	18	9	235	297	374	671	139	312	27	7	296	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	497	467	104	14	7	12	26	157	3	31	3	223	268	360	628	137	309	32	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	497	458	117	18	7	14	35	135	3	31	3	255	312	417	730	162	333	27	7	323	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	277	261	62	19	2	6	11	75	3	4	6	238	276	395	671	157	311	27	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	277	257	67	21	2	6	15	65	3	4	6	261	309	428	737	167	328	23	5	324	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	63	10	1	1	0	10	23	0	4	2	159	274	206	480	48	250	30	13	221	36	-6	+0	+1	+1	+2	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	63	10	1	1	0	10	23	0	4	2	159	274	206	480	48	250	30	13	222	36	-6	+0	+1	+1	+2	-0.2
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	342	78	22	3	5	27	128	1	33	4	228	286	354	640	126	346	34	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	374	331	87	24	4	8	38	110	1	33	4	263	341	432	773	169	367	29	10	340	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	339	68	11	0	10	18	125	3	19	1	201	247	322	569	121	280	34	5	246	53	-21	+3	+5	+4	+8	-0.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	369	338	68	11	0	10	19	124	3	19	1	201	250	322	572	121	280	34	5	252	53	-21	+3	+5	+4	+8	-0.1
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	250	221	41	8	1	4	23	87	0	21	4	186	262	285	547	100	285	35	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	250	215	42	8	1	5	29	78	0	21	4	195	291	312	603	116	280	31	12	271	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	622	580	114	18	0	14	30	259	1	41	5	197	237	300	537	103	323	42	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	622	557	127	22	0	19	53	201	1	41	5	228	296	370	666	142	318	32	9	295	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	478	96	21	0	4	24	159	2	30	6	201	242	270	512	69	290	31	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	514	465	108	22	1	5	36	122	2	30	6	232	290	316	606	84	303	24	7	271	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	245	225	51	8	1	2	12	66	1	14	2	227	269	298	567	71	308	27	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	245	215	55	9	1	3	19	55	1	14	2	256	315	349	664	93	327	22	8	291	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	195	178	39	6	5	1	14	68	1	22	3	219	284	326	610	107	325	35	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	257	240	52	8	3	0	15	85	0	7	2	217	262	275	537	58	332	33	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	722	656	163	17	14	9	52	215	8	55	16	248	314	358	672	110	344	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	218	203	47	8	1	0	13	86	0	5	8	232	278	281	559	49	395	39	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	460	430	93	6	2	1	23	153	4	25	9	216	265	247	511	30	322	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	414	387	80	16	3	7	21	137	3	18	9	207	255	318	573	111	298	33	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	497	465	104	14	7	12	26	157	3	31	3	224	268	361	629	138	306	32	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	277	261	62	19	2	6	11	75	3	4	6	238	276	395	671	157	306	27	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	67	10	1	1	0	10	23	0	4	2	149	274	194	468	45	250	30	13	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	343	78	22	3	5	27	128	1	33	4	227	286	353	639	125	340	34	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	345	68	11	0	10	18	125	3	19	1	197	247	316	563	119	278	34	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	250	225	41	8	1	4	23	87	0	21	4	182	262	280	542	98	272	35	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	622	586	114	18	0	14	30	259	1	41	5	195	237	297	534	102	308	42	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	483	96	21	0	4	24	159	2	30	6	199	242	267	509	68	281	31	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	245	230	51	8	1	2	12	66	1	14	2	222	269	291	560	70	297	27	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	622	586	114	18	0	14	30	259	1	41	5	195	237	297	534	102	308	42	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	483	96	21	0	4	24	159	2	30	6	199	242	267	509	68	281	31	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	245	230	51	8	1	2	12	66	1	14	2	222	269	291	560	70	297	27	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	KC	10%	341	317	66	12	1	6	19	99	2	16	2	211	258	314	573	104	282	29	6	257	60	-16	+2	-1	+4	+7	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	KC	10%	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	208	256	308	564	100	280	30	4	253	60	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	KC	6%	189	176	35	6	0	3	10	56	1	5	1	202	248	296	544	94	274	30	5	245	52	-11	+1	-5	+2	+4	-1.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	KC	6%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	246	290	536	90	272	30	10	241	52	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	637	580	106	18	2	12	38	213	3	40	7	183	237	283	519	100	263	33	6	232	58	-43	+5	+2	+15	+14	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	108	18	2	12	39	217	3	41	7	182	237	280	517	98	262	33	6	232	58	-44	+5	+2	+15	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5910	5446	1178	197	44	82	342	1946	32	345	82	216	267	314	580	98	318	33	6	253	58	-64	+8	-4	+20	+23	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	130	22	5	9	38	214	4	38	9	217	269	316	584	98	319	33	6	253	58	-40	+5	-3	+12	+14	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 230 PAwOBA .301 → .258 (−44)K% 23.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.26%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.43%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.39%
Singles /BIP	27.89%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.030	×0.952	25.43%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.030	×0.952	4.98%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.030	×0.952	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	2.04%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .301 → .258; ISO .100 → .079; BABIP .349 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 368 PAwOBA .283 → .226 (−57)K% 25.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.27%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.61%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.69%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.49%
Singles /BIP	23.63%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.027	×0.962	21.54%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷1.020	×0.830	×1.027	×0.962	6.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.970	×1.027	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.11%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .283 → .226; ISO .103 → .074; BABIP .321 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 473 PAwOBA .298 → .231 (−66)K% 33.2% → 41.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.19%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	41.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.19%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.82%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.19%
Singles /BIP	26.10%	÷0.977	×0.930	×1.015	×0.972	24.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.961	×0.830	×1.015	×0.972	5.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.015	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .298 → .231; ISO .152 → .104; BABIP .340 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 156 PAwOBA .280 → .235 (−45)K% 30.8% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.77%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	36.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.039	×0.982	21.64%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷0.933	×0.830	×1.039	×0.982	5.28%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷0.999	×0.970	×1.039	×0.982	1.15%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .280 → .235; ISO .119 → .095; BABIP .301 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 20 PAwOBA .469 → .371 (−98)K% 25.0% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	30.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.992	13.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.993	×0.930	—	×0.992	8.45%
Doubles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.956	×0.830	—	×0.992	23.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .469 → .371; ISO .375 → .302; BABIP .400 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 306 PAwOBA .351 → .286 (−65)K% 28.4% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.43%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	34.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.09%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.60%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.31%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.985	×1.003	22.38%
Doubles /BIP	11.30%	÷0.915	×0.830	×0.985	×1.003	10.13%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.985	×1.003	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	3.95%	÷1.149	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.42%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .351 → .286; ISO .178 → .132; BABIP .378 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 187 PAwOBA .318 → .279 (−38)K% 20.9% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.86%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.35%	÷1.089	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.50%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.04%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.989	×1.033	19.61%
Doubles /BIP	9.63%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.989	×1.033	8.21%
Triples /BIP	1.48%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.989	×1.033	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	2.96%	÷0.985	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.61%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .318 → .279; ISO .167 → .146; BABIP .321 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Indians Red · 33 PAwOBA .619 → .437 (−182)K% 12.1% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.12%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.945	5.33%
HBP% /PA	3.03%	—	×0.720	—	×0.945	2.06%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.945	21.70%
Doubles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.945	16.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.945	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.945	5.90%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .619 → .437; ISO .414 → .291; BABIP .565 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.9	621	13	39	189	241	293	+7	+4	-0.7	-0.7
/162	664	13	42	+7.0	+4.1	-0.8	pk7: -1
#3Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2
#6Jackie Hernandez'65-'73 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,609 PA	2.4	1,609	12	25	212*	258*	298*	+16	-16	-5.1	-3.5
/162	664	5	10	+6.6	-6.8	-2.1	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrew Velazquez (OGILVIE)	33	45	40	60	40	209/256/312	103	282	4	11	29%	5%	60	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	42→40	61→70	41	212/261/324	112	292	8	32	30%	6%	63	-1.3	189/248/283	94	290	8	32	35%	7%	50	-2.3	129/196/167	38	216	1	52	38%	7%	2	-1.2
✕Pete Orr 2011 · MLB	32	45	43→45	56→55	41	220/264/339	119	263	9	21	21%	4%	69	-0.9	221/260/319	98	272	7	20	21%	4%	62	-1.4	228/255/314	86	291	5	16	23%	3%	55	-1.2
✕Craig Gentry 2017 · MLB	33	44→54	37→40	55→60	46	211/269/275	64	263	5	25	21%	6%	56	-1.9	227/286/318	91	288	7	24	22%	7%	72	-0.7	236/294/319	83	302	5	30	22%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Drew Maggi 2023 · AAA	34	38→48	40→45	54→60	41	185/260/274	89	272	7	23	33%	7%	53	-2.1	190/250/286	96	261	9	15	29%	6%	52	-2.2	155/205/234	78	202	9	9	28%	4%	20	-1.0
✕Eric Young Jr. 2018 · MLB	33	49→59	41→45	58→65	45	236/293/333	97	285	9	32	20%	6%	78	-0.3	226/280/333	107	286	8	19	23%	6%	73	-0.6	217/269/317	101	278	6	17	23%	6%	64	-0.8
✕Jack Reinheimer 2024 · AAA	32	39→49	38→40	55	37	191/241/270	78	281	6	19	33%	5%	44	-2.8	191/238/280	89	267	8	13	30%	5%	45	-2.7	136/171/180	44	185	3	12	28%	4%	-4	-1.4
✕Kristopher Negrón 2018 · MLB	32	44→49	44→45	55	40	216/270/334	117	283	11	17	27%	5%	70	-0.9	221/280/345	124	318	14	14	33%	6%	76	-0.4	215/277/333	118	317	14	14	35%	7%	70	-0.6
✕Tim Torres 2016 · AAA	32	47→49	43→45	55	44	225/288/341	116	316	10	16	31%	8%	78	-0.3	244/307/369	125	323	12	19	26%	8%	92	+0.7	252/315/373	121	327	12	23	25%	8%	95	+0.4
✕Elliot Soto 2024 · AAA	34	40→50	38→40	56→50	40	192/250/273	80	279	5	16	32%	6%	49	-2.4	194/260/274	80	280	6	19	30%	8%	53	-2.1	173/245/230	57	248	4	23	30%	8%	35	-2.7
✕Andrew Romine 2021 · MLB	35	46→55	42→40	55	43	225/272/327	102	272	10	19	21%	5%	69	-0.9	231/281/321	90	298	8	9	24%	6%	70	-0.8	235/280/294	59	309	3	3	24%	5%	61	-0.8
✕Christian Zazueta 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	44→45	58→60	37	236/258/352	117	277	12	29	20%	2%	69	-0.9	224/250/319	95	264	9	27	19%	2%	58	-1.7	220/244/297	77	255	7	27	17%	2%	47	-1.5
✕Willy Taveras 2015 · AAA	33	46→56	42→45	60→65	44	225/279/329	104	272	9	27	20%	6%	72	-0.7	239/291/343	104	289	8	24	20%	5%	80	-0.2	247/297/348	101	301	8	22	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Trent Durrington 2007 · MLB	31	47→43	38→40	59→60	43	223/275/304	81	286	6	35	24%	6%	64	-1.3	217/277/301	84	279	6	26	23%	7%	65	-1.2	201/270/253	52	258	2	33	21%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Juan Ciriaco 2017 · AAA	33	44→48	40→45	52→50	42	217/251/311	94	260	8	17	20%	4%	57	-1.8	217/257/321	104	274	9	14	24%	5%	61	-1.5	202/235/293	91	255	8	14	24%	4%	45	-1.2
✕Juan Carlos Perez 2019 · AAA	32	42→52	43→45	55	39	211/250/324	113	273	10	20	27%	4%	59	-1.6	240/297/353	113	293	10	13	21%	7%	84	+0.2	248/305/353	105	301	8	13	19%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Tim Locastro 2024 · MLB	32	40→50	45	56→60	40	201/281/322	122	255	12	24	25%	5%	73	-0.6	222/301/340	118	272	11	29	22%	6%	84	+0.2	219/299/327	108	266	9	38	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Wynton Bernard 2024 · MLB	33	49→59	43→45	60	45	240/290/359	119	294	10	32	22%	6%	82	+0.0	232/277/340	108	287	10	30	22%	5%	74	-0.6	225/254/312	87	273	7	44	20%	3%	54	-0.9
✕Carlos Orrantia 2014 · AAA	32	47→54	43→45	52→55	40	233/268/343	110	286	10	20	22%	4%	71	-0.8	232/273/320	88	287	7	11	21%	5%	67	-1.1	230/271/303	73	283	5	7	20%	4%	60	-1.0
✕Quintin Berry 2018 · AAA	33	44→54	37→40	56→65	44	211/274/278	67	288	5	32	27%	7%	58	-1.7	213/269/319	106	311	11	24	33%	6%	66	-1.1	162/208/235	73	255	8	48	38%	5%	21	-0.8
✕Wilmer Difo 2024 · MLB	32	43→53	41→45	50→55	47	209/268/302	92	257	9	19	22%	7%	62	-1.4	219/285/321	102	288	9	17	26%	8%	73	-0.6	221/290/311	90	297	8	15	26%	8%	71	-0.5

Andrew Velazquez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps