Drew Avans

LF Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 L/L 5'9" / 182 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	902	.274/.370/.387	8	62	89	—	.236/.303/.335
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	622	.288/.380/.410	10	51	95	—	.252/.313/.333
2025	29	MLBMIL	18	.118/.118/.118	0	1	-45	-1.0
2026	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	530	.226/.352/.298	3	35	59	—	.197/.279/.255
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBCOL	16	.243/.313/.335	0	1	76	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBCOL	68	.237/.306/.325	1	3	72	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.2M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed92

Chase%87

BB%83

Max EV62

Whiff%55

K%44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBilly Hamilton (age 30) · Travis Jankowski (age 32) · Tony Gwynn Jr. (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .313 / .335

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP329

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT60

xAVG

100.150

POWER40

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

1066.9

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	148	123	28	5	2	2	17	29	3	12	2	228	336	350	685	122	271	20	11	305	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	107	88	32	1	3	8	18	14	0	8	3	364	472	716	1.188	352	358	13	17	499	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	241	220	63	8	1	6	19	64	1	17	5	286	346	414	759	127	380	27	8	339	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	137	123	36	7	4	3	10	37	2	3	3	293	356	488	843	195	393	27	7	365	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	43	36	7	1	0	1	6	7	0	4	1	194	310	306	615	111	207	16	14	281	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	279	233	64	15	4	5	43	59	1	19	2	275	390	438	828	163	347	21	15	369	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	432	122	17	12	7	61	129	7	40	7	282	380	426	806	144	387	26	12	360	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	596	508	129	27	2	11	77	132	5	23	8	254	358	380	738	126	319	22	13	333	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	63	57	15	2	3	1	4	8	0	4	2	263	311	456	768	193	292	13	6	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	625	541	147	27	8	8	80	157	2	35	6	272	368	396	763	124	368	25	13	345	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	277	236	66	17	2	0	34	55	2	27	6	280	375	369	744	89	361	20	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	18	17	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	118	118	118	235		167	33	0	101	-45	-3	+0	-1	-7	+0	-1.0
2025	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	444	388	112	19	1	8	50	85	3	40	8	289	374	405	779	116	349	19	11	351	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	178	146	42	6	4	2	23	21	3	11	6	288	395	425	820	137	320	12	13	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	472	389	86	14	3	3	67	110	2	31	6	221	338	296	634	75	291	23	14	290	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	58	41	11	2	0	0	14	14	1	4	4	268	464	317	781	49	379	24	24	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	18	17	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	118	118	118	235		167	33	0	101	-46	-3	+0	-1	-7	+0	-1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	148	128	25	4	2	1	12	38	3	12	2	195	280	281	561	86	245	26	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	107	95	26	1	2	6	11	20	0	8	3	274	349	516	865	242	273	19	10	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	241	226	52	6	1	5	13	82	1	17	5	230	275	332	607	102	335	34	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	137	125	26	5	2	3	8	50	2	3	3	208	267	352	619	144	318	36	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	43	39	7	1	0	1	3	9	0	4	1	179	238	282	520	103	186	21	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	279	246	64	14	4	4	30	71	1	19	2	260	343	398	741	138	351	25	11	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	453	113	15	13	5	40	153	7	40	7	249	320	373	693	124	359	30	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	596	530	115	23	2	8	55	158	5	23	8	217	297	313	610	96	285	27	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	625	568	134	24	7	6	53	190	2	35	6	236	303	335	638	99	340	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	18	17	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	118	118	118	235		167	33	0	101	-45	-3	+0	-1	-7	+0	-1.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	444	405	102	16	1	5	33	101	3	40	8	252	313	333	646	81	320	23	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	472	411	81	12	3	2	45	132	2	31	6	197	279	255	535	58	262	28	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	255	223	50	5	4	7	23	59	3	20	5	224	305	377	682	152	265	23	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	255	211	60	6	5	10	35	43	3	20	5	284	394	502	896	218	307	17	14	386	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	421	390	85	12	3	8	24	141	3	24	9	218	269	326	594	108	317	33	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	421	379	106	16	5	10	35	108	3	24	9	280	345	427	773	148	365	26	8	342	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	279	246	64	14	4	4	30	71	1	19	2	260	343	398	741	138	349	25	11	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	279	233	64	15	4	5	43	59	1	19	2	275	390	438	828	163	347	21	15	369	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	453	113	15	13	5	40	153	7	40	7	249	320	373	693	124	365	30	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	432	122	17	12	7	61	129	7	40	7	282	380	426	806	144	387	26	12	360	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	659	585	128	26	2	9	61	175	5	27	10	219	298	316	614	97	293	27	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	659	565	144	29	5	12	81	140	5	27	10	255	353	388	741	133	316	21	12	333	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	902	814	193	34	10	9	77	274	4	62	12	237	306	337	643	100	344	30	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	902	777	213	44	10	8	114	212	4	62	12	274	370	387	757	113	365	24	13	342	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	640	578	146	23	2	7	46	148	6	52	14	253	314	336	650	83	324	23	7	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	640	551	156	25	5	10	73	112	6	52	14	283	373	401	774	118	336	18	11	346	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	461	90	14	3	2	50	148	3	35	10	195	278	252	530	56	273	28	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	430	97	16	3	3	81	124	3	35	10	226	352	298	650	72	299	23	15	299	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	255	227	50	5	4	7	23	59	3	20	5	220	305	370	675	150	257	23	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	421	391	85	12	3	8	24	141	3	24	9	217	269	325	593	107	314	33	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	279	246	64	14	4	4	30	71	1	19	2	260	343	398	741	138	351	25	11	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	452	113	15	13	5	40	153	7	40	7	250	320	374	694	124	359	30	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	659	588	128	26	2	9	61	175	5	27	10	218	298	315	613	97	285	27	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	902	813	193	34	10	9	77	274	4	62	12	237	306	337	643	100	340	30	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	640	583	146	23	2	7	46	148	6	52	14	250	314	333	647	82	314	23	7	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	90	14	3	2	50	148	3	35	10	191	278	246	524	55	262	28	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	902	813	193	34	10	9	77	274	4	62	12	237	306	337	643	100	340	30	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	640	583	146	23	2	7	46	148	6	52	14	250	314	333	647	82	314	23	7	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	90	14	3	2	50	148	3	35	10	191	278	246	524	55	262	28	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	COL	10%	380	342	79	14	2	3	33	100	2	20	4	232	302	313	615	82	315	26	9	281	76	-11	+2	-0	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	COL	10%	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	243	313	335	648	92	329	25	6	293	76	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	COL	27%	250	226	50	8	1	2	21	67	1	10	2	226	296	304	601	78	309	27	8	274	72	-8	+1	-4	-3	+5	-0.8
2028	32	MLB CTX	COL	27%	68	62	15	2	1	1	6	18	0	3	1	237	306	325	632	88	323	26	9	287	72	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	86	79	17	2	1	1	6	24	0	4	1	215	271	304	574	89	291	28	7	248	75	-5	+0	-2	-8	+2	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	129	15	8	8	45	181	0	30	8	216	271	308	579	92	291	28	7	248	75	-41	+3	-11	-57	+14	-9.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4595	4116	952	157	43	54	385	1277	34	297	73	231	302	330	632	98	318	28	8	280	75	-16	+2	-4	-11	+9	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	135	22	6	8	54	181	5	42	10	232	302	332	634	100	319	28	8	280	75	-25	+3	-7	-17	+14	-3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 472 PAwOBA .289 → .242 (−47)K% 23.3% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.19%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.52%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.39%
Singles /BIP	23.66%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.013	×0.972	21.66%
Doubles /BIP	5.02%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×0.972	4.10%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.013	×0.972	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	1.08%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .289 → .242; ISO .075 → .063; BABIP .291 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 444 PAwOBA .344 → .290 (−54)K% 19.1% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.14%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.04%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.48%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.62%
Singles /BIP	27.72%	÷0.983	×0.930	×1.013	×0.982	26.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.27%	÷0.973	×0.830	×1.013	×0.982	5.32%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.013	×0.982	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	2.64%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .344 → .290; ISO .116 → .086; BABIP .349 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 625 PAwOBA .337 → .283 (−55)K% 25.1% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.12%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	30.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.64%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.47%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.30%
Singles /BIP	27.08%	÷0.977	×0.930	×1.000	×0.992	25.58%
Doubles /BIP	7.03%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.000	×0.992	6.23%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.126	×0.970	×1.000	×0.992	1.78%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷0.896	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .337 → .283; ISO .124 → .103; BABIP .368 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 596 PAwOBA .328 → .271 (−57)K% 22.1% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.15%	÷1.003	×1.200	—	—	26.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.92%	÷0.976	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.16%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.79%
Singles /BIP	23.67%	÷1.021	×0.930	×1.003	×1.003	21.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.18%	÷0.983	×0.830	×1.003	×1.003	6.10%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.003	×1.003	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.04%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .328 → .271; ISO .126 → .098; BABIP .319 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 504 PAwOBA .352 → .301 (−50)K% 25.6% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.60%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	30.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.10%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.92%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.33%
Singles /BIP	28.38%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.007	×1.018	26.35%
Doubles /BIP	5.61%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.007	×1.018	4.99%
Triples /BIP	3.96%	÷0.955	×0.970	×1.007	×1.018	4.13%
Home runs /BIP	2.31%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .352 → .301; ISO .144 → .128; BABIP .387 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 279 PAwOBA .362 → .327 (−35)K% 21.1% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.15%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	25.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.41%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.033	10.83%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.35%
Singles /BIP	22.99%	÷0.958	×0.930	×1.038	×1.033	23.94%
Doubles /BIP	8.62%	÷0.941	×0.830	×1.038	×1.033	8.16%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.038	×1.033	2.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.87%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.05%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 92, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .362 → .327; ISO .163 → .147; BABIP .347 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATulsa Drillers · 241 PAwOBA .330 → .265 (−66)K% 26.6% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.56%	÷0.954	×1.220	—	—	33.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.88%	÷1.063	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.33%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.37%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷0.997	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	27.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷1.048	×0.840	×0.950	×1.027	4.01%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷0.925	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.47%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .330 → .265; ISO .127 → .104; BABIP .380 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 137 PAwOBA .358 → .268 (−90)K% 27.0% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.01%	÷0.991	×1.340	—	—	36.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.30%	÷0.948	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.46%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.15%
Singles /BIP	25.58%	÷1.043	×0.910	×0.950	×0.998	21.15%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷0.935	×0.820	×0.950	×0.998	6.77%
Triples /BIP	4.65%	÷1.049	×0.760	×0.950	×0.998	3.20%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷0.969	×0.920	—	×0.998	3.31%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .268; ISO .195 → .146; BABIP .393 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Avans (OGILVIE)	31	60	40	60	55	230/300/310	81	315	1	8	26%	9%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	39→40	59→70	49	220/285/307	86	285	5	34	24%	8%	69	-0.9	195/248/294	99	291	8	34	33%	6%	52	-2.2	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Travis Jankowski 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	37→40	59→65	56	225/316/299	74	289	5	28	22%	11%	80	-0.2	231/312/305	74	287	5	29	19%	10%	79	-0.2	230/309/287	57	284	3	34	18%	9%	73	-0.2
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2013 · MLB	30	51→57	38→40	59→60	48	241/293/329	88	291	4	28	18%	7%	76	-0.4	227/289/299	72	274	4	17	17%	8%	68	-1.0	215/282/271	56	256	2	15	15%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Quintin Berry 2015 · MLB	30	49→59	37→40	59→65	48	230/299/303	73	304	4	32	24%	8%	74	-0.6	214/279/277	63	292	5	33	26%	8%	60	-1.6	200/264/246	46	280	3	42	28%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Sam Fuld 2013 · MLB	31	49→57	40→45	56→60	55	230/300/332	102	261	6	25	14%	9%	80	-0.1	221/293/320	99	256	7	23	16%	9%	75	-0.5	212/289/307	95	247	6	24	16%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Jonathan Davis 2023 · MLB	31	46→52	40→45	57→55	51	219/314/311	92	297	8	27	27%	10%	82	+0.0	218/293/335	117	304	10	17	29%	8%	79	-0.2	204/277/324	120	289	10	14	31%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Craig Gentry 2016 · MLB	32	48→55	37→40	57→60	46	228/284/295	67	282	5	29	20%	6%	65	-1.2	218/278/298	80	277	6	24	22%	7%	64	-1.3	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Rich Thompson 2010 · AAA	31	51→57	39→45	61→65	45	240/291/334	94	291	5	25	19%	6%	77	-0.3	247/294/344	97	300	5	36	19%	5%	80	-0.1	253/301/350	97	307	4	44	18%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Mike McCoy 2012 · MLB	31	51→58	39→40	57→60	56	240/320/324	84	285	6	31	17%	10%	86	+0.3	214/291/288	74	262	6	27	19%	10%	68	-1.0	196/274/257	61	242	4	26	19%	9%	52	-1.4
✕Jose Constanza 2014 · MLB	30	55→64	34→40	52→60	46	257/297/309	52	303	2	24	16%	5%	72	-0.7	245/284/294	49	286	2	24	14%	5%	64	-1.3	252/288/284	31	290	0	26	13%	5%	60	-0.7
✕Tony Campana 2016 · MLB	30	50→60	36→30	55→70	43	233/279/298	65	302	3	26	23%	6%	63	-1.3	216/264/285	69	257	5	18	18%	6%	55	-1.9	231/265/288	57	276	1	25	16%	4%	52	-1.4
✕Delino DeShields 2023 · MLB	30	45→55	36→45	56→65	52	205/300/272	67	298	4	31	29%	11%	68	-1.0	214/295/288	74	313	5	23	30%	10%	70	-0.9	227/304/279	52	363	0	11	34%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Nyjer Morgan 2011 · MLB	31	57→63	36→45	60→65	49	266/325/342	76	313	2	38	15%	7%	91	+0.7	262/321/357	95	314	6	22	17%	6%	93	+0.8	262/320/355	93	318	6	20	18%	6%	94	+0.4
●Scott Podsednik 2008 · MLB	32	54→64	39→45	57→65	52	256/319/353	97	301	4	35	16%	8%	92	+0.7	272/328/373	101	314	6	30	14%	7%	99	+1.3	289/340/382	93	329	6	34	13%	7%	107	+1.5
✕Julio Borbon 2017 · MLB	31	53→63	37→45	55→60	44	250/282/316	66	292	5	27	16%	4%	69	-0.9	265/307/354	89	308	7	22	16%	5%	88	+0.4	306/347/387	81	349	6	26	13%	4%	110	+1.3
✕Matt Young 2013 · MLB	30	51→60	36→40	55→60	53	236/310/305	69	292	3	22	19%	9%	78	-0.3	223/295/314	91	271	7	22	19%	8%	75	-0.5	212/282/289	77	242	7	32	15%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Tyler Graham 2014 · AAA	30	47→54	39→40	60→65	45	225/290/311	86	287	6	33	23%	6%	72	-0.7	228/274/303	75	282	6	28	21%	5%	63	-1.3	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
✕Greg Golson 2017 · AAA	31	57→53	39→45	54→55	41	265/322/361	96	359	5	23	26%	6%	95	+1.0	235/295/331	96	322	8	17	28%	7%	78	-0.3	224/284/256	32	320	0	22	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2016 · MLB	31	52→62	38→40	54→65	44	248/293/330	83	311	5	28	22%	6%	76	-0.4	241/281/316	75	295	4	28	19%	5%	69	-0.9	236/276/318	82	293	5	33	20%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Chris Dickerson 2012 · MLB	30	51→56	41→50	59→60	46	238/307/337	99	334	7	29	29%	8%	84	+0.2	238/307/372	134	329	12	23	29%	9%	93	+0.8	237/311/378	141	327	13	22	29%	9%	95	+0.5