Richie Palacios — OGILVIE

Richie PalaciosLF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 29 L/R 5'8" / 185 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.907S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION228 act + 152 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9397vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .338 / .364

PA152

HR3

SB6

K%19

BB%11

BABIP287

ISO121

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

906.3%

xwOBA

620.323

POWER40

Barrel%

163.8

Avg EV

1586.5

Bat Spd

2368.5

EYE60

Chase%

9016.0%

SPEED45

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 390 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

359

—

wRC+

106

▶R

wOBA

309

324

▶R

ISO

036

111

▶▶R

BABIP

421

284

◀◀L

29.0%

19.5%

▶▶R

BB%

9.7%

13.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.907 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.9M
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$1M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	2 teams	—	104	99	28	2	1	3	5	21	0	5	0	283	317	414	731	131	333	20	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	2 teams	—	104	96	31	3	1	4	8	15	0	5	0	323	375	500	875	177	351	14	8	386	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	3 teams	—	521	456	114	30	4	9	50	110	10	24	4	250	337	393	730	143	309	21	10	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	3 teams	—	521	435	127	41	5	10	71	85	10	24	4	292	403	478	881	186	341	16	14	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	3 teams	—	420	374	99	18	8	4	35	87	7	18	4	265	339	388	727	123	335	21	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	3 teams	—	420	360	91	18	5	5	49	78	7	18	4	253	353	372	726	119	309	19	12	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	566	491	113	28	0	14	55	86	9	11	6	230	319	373	692	143	248	15	10	305	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	566	467	118	29	0	14	79	72	9	11	6	253	371	405	776	152	267	13	14	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	2 teams	—	337	284	61	8	1	5	47	68	5	19	1	215	336	303	639	88	264	20	14	296	85	-6	+3	-0	+1	+10	0.8
2024	27	MLB	2 teams	—	337	282	63	8	1	5	48	68	5	19	1	223	345	312	657	89	276	20	14	308	94	-2	+3	-0	+1	+10	1.2
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	130	120	25	4	0	2	9	31	0	7	1	208	264	292	555	83	261	24	7	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	130	118	26	4	0	3	11	29	0	7	1	220	287	331	617	110	264	22	8	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	TB	—	228	198	47	7	2	3	26	40	3	8	5	237	335	338	673	101	282	18	11	306	92	-2	-0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
YTD	29	MLB	TB	—	228	198	47	7	2	3	26	40	3	8	5	237	335	338	673	101	282	18	11	309	95	-1	-0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
ROS	29	MLB	TB	100%	152	132	32	5	1	3	17	29	2	6	2	242	338	364	701	121	287	19	11	314	99	-0	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.5
ROS	29	MLB	TB	100%	152	132	32	5	1	3	17	29	2	6	2	242	338	364	701	121	291	19	11	307	93	-1	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.4
FULL	29	MLB	TB	—	380	330	79	12	3	6	43	69	5	14	7	239	336	348	684	109	284	18	11	306	92	-3	+0	-2	+1	+11	0.7
TOT	29	MLB	TB	—	380	330	79	12	3	6	43	69	5	14	7	239	336	348	684	109	284	18	11	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+1	+11	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	TB	82%	321	278	66	11	1	6	36	63	4	11	4	237	333	349	682	112	285	20	11	311	96	-1	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.7
2027	30	MLB	TB	82%	263	229	54	9	1	4	29	52	3	9	3	236	330	336	666	100	289	20	11	303	90	-3	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1004	872	209	36	3	19	111	188	12	42	6	240	333	353	687	114	283	19	11	310	95	-5	+6	-10	-7	+28	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	135	23	2	12	72	122	8	27	4	239	333	350	684	112	283	19	11	310	95	-3	+4	-6	-5	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	2551	2234	538	106	16	46	254	495	37	101	22	241	328	364	693	124	288	19	10	307	93	-20	+11	-10	-5	+72	5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	137	27	4	12	65	126	9	26	6	241	328	366	693	125	287	19	10	307	93	-5	+3	-3	-1	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Lake County Captains	—	82	80	24	2	1	2	2	13	0	3	0	300	317	425	742	125	338	16	2	328	110	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2018	21	ROK	AZL Indians 1	—	22	16	7	1	0	2	6	2	0	2	0	438	591	875	1.466	438	417	9	27	602	319	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2021	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	145	113	33	9	1	1	25	28	4	10	0	292	437	416	853	124	376	19	17	383	151	+8	+2	—	—	+4	1.5
2021	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	283	244	73	24	3	6	33	42	4	10	3	299	391	496	887	197	338	15	12	390	156	+18	+1	—	—	+8	2.7
2021	24	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	93	78	21	8	1	3	13	15	2	4	1	269	387	513	900	244	300	16	14	396	161	+6	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2022	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	123	112	26	6	0	0	9	20	1	2	0	232	295	286	581	54	280	16	7	267	62	-5	+0	-2	-4	+3	-0.8
2022	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	206	179	50	10	5	4	24	43	2	12	2	279	371	458	829	179	348	21	12	367	139	+9	+2	—	—	+6	1.7
2022	25	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	91	69	15	2	0	1	16	15	4	4	2	217	393	290	683	72	264	16	18	325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	102	93	24	6	0	6	6	11	1	2	0	258	310	516	826	258	234	11	6	353	128	+3	+0	-2	-6	+3	-0.1
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	464	374	94	23	0	8	73	61	8	9	6	251	385	377	762	126	276	13	16	345	122	+12	-1	—	—	+13	2.5
2024	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	316	264	59	8	1	5	45	67	5	19	1	223	346	318	664	95	280	21	14	310	96	-2	+3	-0	+1	+9	1.2
2024	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	21	18	4	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	222	333	222	556		235	5	14	272	66	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	48	42	14	2	0	1	5	9	0	4	0	333	404	452	857	119	394	19	10	377	147	+3	+1	-4	+0	+1	0.2
2025	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	82	76	12	2	0	2	6	20	0	3	1	158	220	263	483	105	185	24	7	221	28	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	589	511	123	22	1	12	65	107	7	27	1	241	334	358	692	117	280	18	11	314	98	-1	+5	-7	-9	+17	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	10	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
	/162	664	9	26	241	331	351	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#4Ramón Vázquezlast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,190 PA	8	2,190	22	20	255	330	352	+10	-15	4.2	4.6
	/162	664	7	6	255	330	352	+3.0	-4.6	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,382	26	53	238	329	353	+1	-12	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	12	25	238	329	353	+0.6	-5.8	1.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Richie Palacios (OGILVIE)	29	55	40	45	60	239/336/348	109	284	6	14	18%	11%	95	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Tony Kemp 2021 · MLB	29	50→60	44→45	50→55	56	242/325/364	122	271	11	15	15%	10%	98	+1.6	246/334/367	121	271	11	13	13%	10%	102	+1.9	238/327/349	110	260	9	15	12%	10%	93	+0.9
✕Josh Rojas 2023 · MLB	29	53→54	45→50	53→55	54	255/333/381	126	315	11	18	22%	10%	105	+2.1	236/306/347	111	297	10	16	22%	9%	85	+0.7	221/291/320	99	280	9	15	23%	9%	69	-0.2
✕Eric Campbell 2016 · MLB	29	52→57	44→45	49→50	55	251/340/370	119	306	10	14	20%	10%	105	+2.1	241/327/351	110	299	9	12	21%	10%	95	+1.4	233/322/348	115	288	10	9	21%	10%	90	+0.7
✕Xavier Paul 2014 · MLB	29	52→58	47→45	48→55	49	254/317/395	141	310	14	13	22%	8%	102	+1.8	208/263/332	124	277	14	6	29%	6%	63	-0.8	164/211/257	94	234	12	1	35%	5%	19	-2.3
✕Flavio Romero 2009 · AAA	29	48→57	40→45	50→60	56	228/317/323	95	277	7	24	19%	11%	83	+0.6	245/331/313	68	302	4	20	18%	11%	87	+0.8	256/348/301	45	319	2	22	18%	12%	91	+0.5
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2017 · MLB	30	52→62	42→45	51→60	48	250/310/353	104	304	10	20	21%	7%	88	+0.9	236/299/346	110	301	11	18	24%	8%	81	+0.4	240/303/342	101	306	11	24	24%	8%	80	+0.1
✕Jose Munoz 2008 · AAA	29	50→49	43→45	43→50	55	242/320/354	112	284	11	9	18%	10%	92	+1.2	248/320/365	117	293	9	11	17%	9%	95	+1.4	252/328/366	114	297	8	9	17%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Jace Peterson 2019 · MLB	29	46→56	42→50	53→55	57	220/314/331	111	272	8	17	21%	12%	85	+0.7	239/317/393	154	292	15	18	22%	10%	102	+1.8	243/319/402	159	297	17	19	23%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Joshua Palacios 2023 · MLB	28	52	42→50	52→55	46	249/313/355	106	306	10	22	21%	7%	89	+1.0	242/303/389	147	291	17	15	22%	7%	95	+1.4	231/297/381	150	276	18	11	23%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Desmond Jennings 2016 · MLB	29	49→59	46→50	50→60	52	240/313/374	135	282	12	17	19%	9%	95	+1.4	211/274/343	132	260	15	10	24%	8%	71	-0.3	184/246/310	126	224	16	7	26%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Greg Garcia 2019 · MLB	29	51→54	40	46→50	56	241/336/335	94	297	8	7	20%	11%	95	+1.4	240/338/350	110	308	9	6	22%	12%	99	+1.7	251/368/361	110	329	7	0	22%	14%	111	+1.6
✕Raimel Tapia 2023 · MLB	29	52→62	41→45	52→55	47	251/294/351	101	289	8	16	17%	6%	79	+0.3	242/304/362	120	299	13	20	22%	8%	88	+0.9	229/308/329	100	295	12	33	25%	10%	79	+0.1
✕Matt Szczur 2018 · MLB	29	49→57	46→45	45→55	54	241/323/377	136	285	12	10	19%	10%	100	+1.7	231/305/368	137	284	13	7	22%	9%	90	+1.0	198/255/336	138	247	16	4	26%	7%	59	-0.2
✕Joe Thurston 2009 · MLB	29	55→58	42→45	49→50	46	266/310/381	116	299	8	16	14%	5%	95	+1.4	246/301/368	122	285	10	11	17%	6%	88	+0.9	245/305/374	129	283	13	10	18%	6%	88	+0.7
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	43→45	52→60	54	237/311/353	115	271	10	18	16%	9%	88	+0.9	228/291/341	113	280	12	12	22%	8%	76	+0.1	224/280/316	92	280	10	12	23%	7%	61	-0.2
✕Chris Duffy 2010 · MLB	30	47→57	42→45	51→60	48	226/291/338	112	277	9	17	21%	8%	76	+0.0	228/279/345	117	315	10	14	29%	5%	73	-0.1	228/275/341	113	323	8	16	30%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Gerardo Parra 2016 · MLB	29	55→62	46→50	48→55	47	269/314/405	136	305	12	12	16%	6%	102	+1.9	248/288/364	116	289	10	10	17%	5%	81	+0.4	248/303/354	106	288	11	11	17%	6%	80	+0.3
●Eric Sogard 2015 · MLB	29	52→57	39→45	50→55	54	244/307/331	87	271	6	17	12%	8%	80	+0.4	248/315/333	85	282	6	12	13%	8%	84	+0.6	250/336/373	123	285	11	10	15%	11%	100	+1.1
●Cameron Maybin 2016 · MLB	29	52→60	43→50	53→55	50	253/312/363	110	300	10	19	19%	8%	91	+1.1	257/330/374	117	312	10	25	19%	10%	101	+1.8	254/334/367	113	310	9	28	19%	10%	98	+1.2
✕Alex Presley 2014 · MLB	29	55→63	45→50	53→55	46	266/313/397	131	317	11	17	20%	6%	100	+1.7	252/298/354	102	295	10	14	17%	6%	82	+0.5	257/304/345	88	306	7	13	18%	6%	79	+0.2