Richie Palacios
2B Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | MLBTB | 316 | .223/.346/.318 | 5 | 19 | 92 | 0.9 | |
| 2025 | 28 | AAATB | 82 | .158/.220/.263 | 2 | 3 | -4 | — | .128/.171/.192 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBTB | 48 | .333/.404/.452 | 1 | 4 | 135 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBTB | 399 | .235/.332/.374 | 10 | 17 | 101 | 1.0 | |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBTB | 214 | .238/.334/.366 | 5 | 9 | 100 | 0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 31 | MLBTB | 164 | .233/.328/.354 | 3 | 5 | 96 | 0.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 82 | 80 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 317 | 425 | 742 | 125 | 338 | 16 | 2 | 328 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | — | 22 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 438 | 591 | 875 | 1.466 | 438 | 417 | 9 | 27 | 602 | 195 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 145 | 113 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 292 | 437 | 416 | 853 | 124 | 376 | 19 | 17 | 383 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 283 | 244 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 42 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 299 | 391 | 496 | 887 | 197 | 338 | 15 | 12 | 390 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 93 | 78 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 269 | 387 | 513 | 900 | 244 | 300 | 16 | 14 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 123 | 112 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 295 | 286 | 581 | 54 | 280 | 16 | 7 | 267 | 62 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 206 | 179 | 50 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 43 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 279 | 371 | 458 | 829 | 179 | 348 | 21 | 12 | 367 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 91 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 393 | 290 | 683 | 72 | 264 | 16 | 18 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 102 | 93 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 310 | 516 | 826 | 258 | 234 | 11 | 6 | 353 | 130 | +4 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 464 | 374 | 94 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 73 | 61 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 251 | 385 | 377 | 762 | 126 | 276 | 13 | 16 | 345 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 316 | 264 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 67 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 223 | 346 | 318 | 664 | 95 | 280 | 21 | 14 | 310 | 92 | -3 | +3 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 333 | 222 | 556 | 235 | 5 | 14 | 272 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 48 | 42 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 333 | 404 | 452 | 857 | 119 | 394 | 19 | 10 | 377 | 135 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 82 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 158 | 220 | 263 | 483 | 105 | 185 | 24 | 7 | 221 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 345 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 235 | 332 | 374 | 706 | 139 | 264 | 17 | 12 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 988 | 856 | 204 | 36 | 3 | 22 | 111 | 175 | 11 | 44 | 8 | 238 | 333 | 364 | 697 | 126 | 274 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +6 | -8 | -7 | +21 | 1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 82 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 272 | 280 | 358 | 639 | 86 | 327 | 22 | 1 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 22 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 389 | 500 | 778 | 1.278 | 389 | 316 | 14 | 18 | 456 | 195 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 145 | 120 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 33 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 300 | 408 | 417 | 825 | 117 | 388 | 23 | 12 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 283 | 253 | 61 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 52 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 241 | 317 | 387 | 704 | 146 | 281 | 18 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 123 | 113 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 53 | 280 | 16 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 206 | 185 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 276 | 346 | 438 | 784 | 162 | 354 | 24 | 9 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 102 | 93 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 310 | 516 | 826 | 258 | 234 | 11 | 6 | 360 | 130 | +4 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 464 | 396 | 90 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 51 | 74 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 227 | 327 | 328 | 656 | 101 | 253 | 16 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 316 | 267 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 67 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 217 | 337 | 311 | 647 | 94 | 280 | 21 | 14 | 305 | 92 | -3 | +3 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 211 | 496 | 223 | 5 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 48 | 42 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 333 | 404 | 452 | 857 | 119 | 394 | 19 | 10 | 368 | 135 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 82 | 78 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 128 | 171 | 192 | 363 | 64 | 167 | 28 | 5 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 345 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 232 | 329 | 371 | 700 | 139 | 264 | 17 | 12 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 104 | 99 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 273 | 308 | 404 | 712 | 131 | 320 | 20 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 104 | 96 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 323 | 375 | 500 | 875 | 177 | 351 | 14 | 8 | 386 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 521 | 455 | 117 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 105 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 257 | 345 | 393 | 738 | 136 | 318 | 20 | 10 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 521 | 435 | 127 | 41 | 5 | 10 | 71 | 85 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 292 | 403 | 478 | 881 | 186 | 341 | 16 | 14 | 389 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 420 | 376 | 98 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 261 | 332 | 380 | 712 | 120 | 331 | 21 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 420 | 360 | 91 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 78 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 253 | 353 | 372 | 726 | 119 | 309 | 19 | 12 | 328 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 489 | 115 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 85 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 235 | 326 | 372 | 698 | 137 | 256 | 15 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 566 | 467 | 118 | 29 | 0 | 14 | 79 | 72 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 253 | 371 | 405 | 776 | 152 | 267 | 13 | 14 | 346 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 286 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 68 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 217 | 333 | 304 | 638 | 87 | 266 | 20 | 13 | 300 | 90 | -4 | +3 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 337 | 282 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 68 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 223 | 345 | 312 | 657 | 89 | 276 | 20 | 14 | 308 | 90 | -4 | +3 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 120 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 200 | 256 | 283 | 539 | 83 | 253 | 25 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 130 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 220 | 287 | 331 | 617 | 110 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 279 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 345 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 232 | 329 | 371 | 700 | 139 | 260 | 17 | 12 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 345 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 235 | 332 | 374 | 706 | 139 | 264 | 17 | 12 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 104 | 98 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 276 | 308 | 408 | 716 | 133 | 325 | 20 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 521 | 455 | 117 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 105 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 257 | 345 | 393 | 738 | 136 | 317 | 20 | 10 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 420 | 377 | 98 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 260 | 332 | 379 | 711 | 119 | 326 | 21 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 495 | 115 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 85 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 232 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 135 | 250 | 15 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 284 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 68 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 218 | 333 | 306 | 640 | 88 | 276 | 20 | 13 | 300 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 120 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 200 | 256 | 283 | 539 | 83 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 346 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 231 | 329 | 370 | 699 | 139 | 264 | 17 | 12 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 337 | 284 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 68 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 218 | 333 | 306 | 640 | 88 | 276 | 20 | 13 | 300 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 120 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 200 | 256 | 283 | 539 | 83 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 399 | 346 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 68 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 231 | 329 | 370 | 699 | 139 | 264 | 17 | 12 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 325 | 282 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 61 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 236 | 332 | 367 | 699 | 131 | 274 | 19 | 11 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 214 | 185 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 40 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 238 | 334 | 366 | 700 | 128 | 277 | 19 | 12 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 82% | 200 | 173 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 38 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 231 | 327 | 355 | 681 | 124 | 270 | 19 | 12 | 309 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 82% | 164 | 142 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 31 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 328 | 354 | 682 | 121 | 273 | 19 | 12 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1152 | 998 | 237 | 42 | 4 | 25 | 130 | 206 | 13 | 49 | 10 | 237 | 333 | 363 | 695 | 125 | 274 | 18 | 11 | 315 | 95 | -1 | +6 | -12 | -7 | +25 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 563 | 134 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 73 | 116 | 7 | 28 | 6 | 238 | 332 | 362 | 695 | 124 | 275 | 18 | 11 | 315 | 95 | -1 | +3 | -7 | -4 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2891 | 2528 | 607 | 123 | 17 | 53 | 294 | 546 | 39 | 116 | 27 | 240 | 329 | 365 | 694 | 125 | 285 | 19 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +7 | -14 | -6 | +30 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 137 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 66 | 123 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 241 | 330 | 368 | 698 | 127 | 286 | 19 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +3 | -6 | -3 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 82 PAwOBA .216 → .163 (−53)K% 24.4% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×0.992 | 13.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.992 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .216 → .163; ISO .105 → .061; BABIP .185 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 21 PAwOBA .266 → .235 (−31)K% 4.8% → 5.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 5.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 22.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .235; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .235 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 464 PAwOBA .342 → .296 (−46)K% 13.1% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.15% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.73% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .342 → .296; ISO .126 → .109; BABIP .276 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 206 PAwOBA .356 → .333 (−23)K% 20.9% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.87% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.17% | ÷0.930 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.79% | ÷0.941 | ×0.930 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 24.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 4.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .356 → .333; ISO .179 → .161; BABIP .348 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 283 PAwOBA .382 → .311 (−72)K% 14.8% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.84% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.66% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.88% | ÷1.129 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.116 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.893 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.63% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 123, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .382 → .311; ISO .197 → .160; BABIP .338 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 145 PAwOBA .377 → .357 (−20)K% 19.3% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.31% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 12.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.88% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.048 | 27.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.59% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.048 | 10.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×1.048 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 90, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .377 → .357; ISO .124 → .120; BABIP .376 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALake County Captains · 82 PAwOBA .319 → .276 (−43)K% 15.9% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.85% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.44% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 1.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.36% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 27.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.928 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 91, 2B 106, 3B 86, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .319 → .276; ISO .125 → .096; BABIP .338 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Indians 1 · 22 PAwOBA .587 → .456 (−131)K% 9.1% → 13.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 16.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 10.98% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .587 → .456; ISO .438 → .367; BABIP .417 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .