Xavier Paul

PosLF

B/TL/R

Born1985-02-25

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	28	MLBCIN	239	.244/.339/.402	7	0	103	-0.3
2014	29	AAAARI	334	.251/.317/.425	12	1	42	—	.179/.229/.289
2014	29	MLBARI	21	.100/.143/.100	0	0	-56	-0.7
2016	31	AAADelfines de C…	97	.242/.289/.385	3	1	45	—	.194/.227/.290
2017	32	No MLB games played
2018	33	No MLB games played
2019	34	No MLB games played
2020	35	No MLB games played
2021	36	No MLB games played
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	20	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	330	288	71	15	3	7	32	81	4	1	5	247	330	392	723	146	317	25	10	320	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	520	470	134	23	3	13	38	114	4	22	15	285	344	430	774	145	352	22	7	340	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	482	422	123	21	2	11	48	112	3	17	9	291	368	429	797	137	372	23	10	351	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	506	443	140	28	5	9	43	96	5	17	7	316	383	463	846	147	381	19	8	366	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	16	14	3	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	1	214	312	500	812	286	222	25	12	354	126	+0	-0	-0	-2	+0	-0.1
2009	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	129	116	38	10	2	2	10	22	0	8	2	328	381	500	881	172	387	17	8	379	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	133	121	28	8	1	0	8	24	0	3	1	231	279	314	593	83	286	18	6	261	69	-5	+0	-1	-4	+3	-0.7
2010	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	250	228	74	20	1	12	18	41	4	7	3	325	384	579	963	254	354	16	7	419	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	243	62	6	5	2	13	62	0	16	6	255	293	346	639	91	333	24	5	280	75	-8	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.9
2012	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	96	86	27	5	1	2	9	18	0	4	2	314	379	465	844	151	379	19	9	372	129	+3	+0	-1	-4	+2	0.1
2012	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	263	238	79	18	1	9	20	46	2	9	3	332	388	529	918	197	383	17	8	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	239	209	51	12	0	7	27	53	3	0	1	244	339	402	741	158	295	22	11	335	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+5	-0.3
2014	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	21	20	2	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	100	143	100	243		167	38	5	119	-56	-4	+0	+0	-4	+0	-0.7
2014	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	334	299	75	12	2	12	27	83	2	1	1	251	317	425	742	174	300	25	8	324	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	97	91	22	2	1	3	6	18	0	1	2	242	289	385	673	143	271	19	6	300	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	767	693	173	32	7	12	60	169	3	23	11	250	312	368	680	118	313	22	8	302	91	-8	+0	-13	-19	+17	-2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	330	297	64	14	2	6	23	115	4	1	5	215	281	337	618	121	319	35	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	520	482	122	22	2	11	26	162	4	22	15	253	297	376	672	122	349	31	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	482	437	121	21	2	9	33	136	3	17	9	277	332	396	728	119	371	28	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	506	456	133	25	4	7	30	124	5	17	7	292	342	410	752	118	365	25	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	16	14	3	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	1	214	312	500	812	286	222	25	12	354	126	+0	-0	-0	-2	+0	-0.1
2009	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	129	119	35	8	2	2	7	28	0	8	2	294	333	445	779	151	350	22	5	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	133	121	28	8	1	0	8	24	0	3	1	231	279	314	593	83	286	18	6	271	69	-5	+0	-1	-4	+3	-0.7
2010	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	250	236	59	15	1	8	10	55	4	7	3	250	292	424	716	174	293	22	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	244	62	6	5	2	12	62	0	16	6	254	289	344	633	90	333	24	5	278	75	-8	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.9
2012	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	96	87	27	5	1	2	8	18	0	4	2	310	368	460	828	149	379	19	8	359	129	+3	+0	-1	-4	+2	0.1
2012	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	263	246	69	15	1	7	12	57	2	9	3	280	319	435	754	154	339	22	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	239	212	50	12	0	6	24	53	3	0	1	236	322	377	700	142	295	22	10	320	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+5	-0.3
2014	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	21	21	2	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	95	95	95	190		167	38	0	86	-56	-4	+0	+0	-4	+0	-0.7
2014	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	334	308	55	8	1	8	18	111	2	1	1	179	229	289	518	110	238	33	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	97	93	18	1	1	2	4	21	0	1	2	194	227	290	517	97	237	22	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	330	297	64	14	2	6	23	115	4	1	5	215	281	337	618	121	326	35	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A+ RAW	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	330	288	71	15	3	7	32	81	4	1	5	247	330	392	723	146	317	25	10	320	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	520	482	122	22	2	11	26	162	4	22	15	253	297	376	672	122	358	31	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ RAW	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	520	470	134	23	3	13	38	114	4	22	15	285	344	430	774	145	352	22	7	340	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	482	437	121	21	2	9	33	136	3	17	9	277	332	396	728	119	381	28	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA RAW	Jacksonville Suns	—	482	422	123	21	2	11	48	112	3	17	9	291	368	429	797	137	372	23	10	351	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	506	456	133	25	4	7	30	124	5	17	7	292	342	410	752	118	381	25	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	506	443	140	28	5	9	43	96	5	17	7	316	383	463	846	147	381	19	8	366	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	145	133	38	9	2	3	9	32	0	8	3	286	331	451	782	165	354	22	6	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	145	130	41	11	2	3	12	26	0	8	3	315	373	500	873	185	373	18	8	377	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	357	87	23	2	8	18	79	4	10	4	244	288	387	674	143	292	21	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	383	349	102	28	2	12	26	65	4	10	4	292	348	487	835	195	330	17	7	364	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	244	62	6	5	2	12	62	0	16	6	254	289	344	633	90	331	24	5	278	75	-8	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.9
2011	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	243	62	6	5	2	13	62	0	16	6	255	293	346	639	91	333	24	5	280	75	-8	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.9
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	333	96	20	2	9	20	75	2	13	5	288	332	441	774	153	349	21	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	359	324	106	23	2	11	29	64	2	13	5	327	386	512	898	185	382	18	8	392	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	239	212	50	12	0	6	24	53	3	0	1	236	322	377	700	142	288	22	10	320	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+5	-0.3
2013	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	239	209	51	12	0	7	27	53	3	0	1	244	339	402	741	158	295	22	11	335	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+5	-0.3
2014	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	329	57	8	1	8	18	119	2	1	1	173	221	277	497	103	236	34	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	355	319	77	12	2	12	28	91	2	1	1	241	307	404	711	163	293	26	8	312	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	97	93	18	1	1	2	4	21	0	1	2	194	227	290	517	97	229	22	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	97	91	22	2	1	3	6	18	0	1	2	242	289	385	673	143	271	19	6	300	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	330	300	64	14	2	6	23	115	4	1	5	213	281	333	614	120	319	35	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	520	485	122	22	2	11	26	162	4	22	15	252	297	373	670	122	349	31	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	482	443	121	21	2	9	33	136	3	17	9	273	332	391	722	117	371	28	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	506	466	133	25	4	7	30	124	5	17	7	285	342	401	743	116	365	25	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	145	135	38	9	2	3	9	32	0	8	3	281	331	444	775	163	336	22	6	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	358	87	23	2	8	18	79	4	10	4	243	288	385	673	142	290	21	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	248	62	6	5	2	12	62	0	16	6	250	289	339	628	89	333	24	5	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	334	96	20	2	9	20	75	2	13	5	287	332	440	773	153	350	21	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	239	210	50	12	0	6	24	53	3	0	1	238	322	381	703	143	295	22	10	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	332	57	8	1	8	18	119	2	1	1	172	221	274	495	102	234	34	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	97	93	18	1	1	2	4	21	0	1	2	194	227	290	517	97	237	22	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	767	693	173	32	7	12	60	169	3	23	11	250	312	368	680	118	313	22	8	302	87	-8	+0	-13	-19	+17	-2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	146	27	6	10	51	143	3	19	9	249	312	366	679	118	312	22	8	302	87	-7	+0	-11	-16	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3678	3373	848	161	23	71	217	978	27	106	58	251	302	376	678	125	331	27	6	296	87	-8	+0	-13	-19	+17	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	150	28	4	13	38	173	5	19	10	252	302	378	680	126	331	27	6	296	87	-7	+0	-11	-16	+14	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 97 PAwOBA .292 → .234 (−58)K% 18.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.56%	÷1.030	×1.200	—	—	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.19%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.03%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.92%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.012	×0.962	19.86%
Doubles /BIP	2.74%	÷1.080	×0.830	×1.012	×0.962	2.05%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.012	×0.962	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	4.11%	÷0.926	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.99%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 106, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .292 → .234; ISO .143 → .104; BABIP .271 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAReno Aces · 334 PAwOBA .321 → .230 (−91)K% 24.9% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.85%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	33.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.08%	÷1.049	×0.710	—	×0.982	5.37%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.58%
Singles /BIP	22.69%	÷1.047	×0.900	×0.983	×0.982	18.82%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.047	×0.810	×0.983	×0.982	4.15%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.983	×0.982	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.116	×0.780	—	×0.982	3.81%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .321 → .230; ISO .174 → .114; BABIP .300 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALouisville Bats · 263 PAwOBA .386 → .326 (−60)K% 17.5% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.49%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.84%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.58%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.72%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.018	×1.003	24.13%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.018	×1.003	7.93%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.018	×1.003	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	4.69%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.63%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 109, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .386 → .326; ISO .197 → .161; BABIP .383 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 250 PAwOBA .403 → .308 (−95)K% 16.4% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.40%	÷0.961	×1.290	—	—	22.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.60%	÷1.019	×0.710	—	×1.033	4.03%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.62%
Singles /BIP	21.93%	÷1.056	×0.900	×1.001	×1.033	19.32%
Doubles /BIP	10.70%	÷1.082	×0.810	×1.001	×1.033	8.28%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.053	×0.810	×1.001	×1.033	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	6.42%	÷1.223	×0.780	—	×1.033	4.23%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 111, 2B 116, 3B 111, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .403 → .308; ISO .254 → .173; BABIP .354 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 129 PAwOBA .369 → .322 (−48)K% 17.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.05%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.98%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.53%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.995	×1.048	23.97%
Doubles /BIP	10.64%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.995	×1.048	8.99%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.995	×1.048	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.74%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .369 → .322; ISO .172 → .144; BABIP .387 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALas Vegas 51s · 506 PAwOBA .359 → .326 (−33)K% 19.0% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.97%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	24.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.10%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.04%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.02%
Singles /BIP	28.24%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.045	×1.050	27.88%
Doubles /BIP	8.07%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.045	×1.050	7.17%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.045	×1.050	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	2.59%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.12%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .359 → .326; ISO .147 → .126; BABIP .381 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAJacksonville Suns · 482 PAwOBA .343 → .315 (−28)K% 23.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.24%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.75%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.91%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.54%
Singles /BIP	28.71%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×1.042	28.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.77%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×1.042	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.050	×1.042	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.96%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .343 → .315; ISO .137 → .124; BABIP .372 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 A+Vero Beach Dodgers · 520 PAwOBA .329 → .291 (−37)K% 21.9% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.92%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.54%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.027	5.04%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.73%
Singles /BIP	26.69%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	26.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.46%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.050	×1.027	6.69%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×1.027	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	3.65%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.027	3.30%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .329 → .291; ISO .145 → .126; BABIP .352 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).