Nathan LukesRF
Toronto Blue Jays
INJURED · Injured 10-Day (D10)
Age 32
L/R
5'11" / 180 lbs
MLB
HR +12%BB +4%
Svc 1.843 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
wRC+†vL 7590vR 87
AVG/OBP/SLG.268 / .336 / .410
PA166
HR4
K%15
BB%9
MLB%100%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
60→60
PWR
40→40
SPD
50→50
EYE
49↘45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 1.843 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $0.9M | $2M | +$1M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | 2 teams | 487 | 443 | 107 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 94 | 6 | 15 | 9 | .242 | .297 | .343 | .640 | .102 | .295 | 19 | 6 | .276 | 69 | -17 | -1 | +0 | -5 | +14 | -0.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | 2 teams | 426 | 391 | 94 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 99 | 3 | 7 | 10 | .240 | .286 | .322 | .608 | .082 | .308 | 23 | 5 | .262 | 59 | -20 | -3 | +0 | -5 | +12 | -1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 484 | 446 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 114 | 6 | 9 | 4 | .256 | .297 | .368 | .664 | .112 | .325 | 24 | 4 | .283 | 75 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +14 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 295 | 268 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 3 | .194 | .253 | .276 | .529 | .082 | .241 | 22 | 6 | .233 | 37 | -21 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +8 | -1.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 326 | 301 | 85 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .282 | .323 | .405 | .728 | .123 | .322 | 15 | 4 | .315 | 99 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 484 | 445 | 118 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 105 | 7 | 20 | 3 | .265 | .322 | .387 | .708 | .121 | .325 | 22 | 6 | .310 | 95 | -3 | +3 | +0 | -5 | +14 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | 2 teams | 253 | 234 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .316 | .365 | .457 | .822 | .141 | .363 | 16 | 6 | .356 | 130 | +9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | 2 teams | 322 | 290 | 88 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .303 | .363 | .424 | .787 | .121 | .346 | 16 | 8 | .341 | 119 | +7 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 438 | 388 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | .258 | .327 | .405 | .732 | .147 | .278 | 14 | 9 | .311 | 96 | -2 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +12 | 0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 55 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .235 | .278 | .294 | .572 | .059 | .267 | 13 | 2 | .255 | 53 | -3 | -0 | +1 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TOR | 111 | 100 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .270 | .336 | .400 | .736 | .130 | .295 | 14 | 8 | .326 | 108 | +1 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +3 | 0.4 |
| TOT | 32 | MLB | TOR | 166 | 151 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .258 | .317 | .364 | .681 | .106 | .289 | 14 | 6 | .302 | 90 | -2 | -0 | +2 | -2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 338 | 305 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .262 | .328 | .393 | .722 | .131 | .287 | 14 | 8 | .320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 294 | 266 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .256 | .322 | .376 | .698 | .120 | .285 | 15 | 8 | .313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -3 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 242 | 219 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .251 | .317 | .370 | .687 | .119 | .282 | 16 | 8 | .304 | 91 | -2 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4500 | 4096 | 1062 | 202 | 32 | 70 | 289 | 821 | 45 | 74 | 40 | .259 | .315 | .375 | .691 | .116 | .306 | 18 | 6 | .300 | 88 | -62 | -1 | -7 | -48 | +128 | 0.9 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 592 | 153 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 42 | 119 | 6 | 11 | 6 | .258 | .314 | .375 | .689 | .117 | .305 | 18 | 6 | .300 | 88 | -9 | -0 | -1 | -7 | +18 | 0.1 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 94 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .211 | .237 | .267 | .503 | .056 | .240 | 15 | 3 | .226 | 31 | -7 | -0 | — | — | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | 393 | 342 | 103 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 60 | 6 | 14 | 8 | .301 | .379 | .453 | .832 | .152 | .349 | 15 | 9 | .364 | 137 | +16 | -0 | — | — | +11 | 2.8 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 404 | 359 | 97 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 71 | 3 | 6 | 8 | .270 | .335 | .365 | .700 | .095 | .323 | 18 | 8 | .310 | 95 | -2 | -2 | — | — | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 22 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .400 | .455 | .450 | .905 | .050 | .500 | 18 | 9 | .410 | 172 | +2 | -1 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 484 | 435 | 121 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 93 | 6 | 9 | 4 | .278 | .335 | .400 | .735 | .122 | .336 | 19 | 6 | .322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +14 | 1.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 295 | 260 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 3 | .219 | .298 | .319 | .617 | .100 | .260 | 19 | 9 | .277 | 70 | -10 | +0 | — | — | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 326 | 294 | 89 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .303 | .357 | .456 | .813 | .153 | .335 | 13 | 6 | .354 | 129 | +11 | -0 | — | — | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 484 | 428 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 89 | 7 | 20 | 3 | .285 | .365 | .425 | .790 | .140 | .336 | 18 | 10 | .354 | 129 | +16 | +3 | — | — | +14 | 3.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .192 | .300 | .308 | .608 | .115 | .278 | 29 | 13 | .271 | 66 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 222 | 202 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .366 | .423 | .530 | .953 | .163 | .401 | 11 | 8 | .422 | 181 | +20 | +0 | — | — | +6 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 91 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .303 | .384 | .447 | .831 | .145 | .319 | 10 | 11 | .351 | 126 | +3 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 231 | 207 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .333 | .403 | .469 | .871 | .135 | .378 | 16 | 10 | .390 | 157 | +15 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 438 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | .255 | .325 | .407 | .732 | .152 | .273 | 14 | 9 | .320 | 103 | +2 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +12 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 560 | 490 | 127 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 78 | 2 | 3 | 4 | .259 | .333 | .408 | .741 | .149 | .281 | 14 | 9 | .323 | 105 | +3 | -1 | +2 | -11 | +16 | 0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Nathan Lukes (OGILVIE) | 32 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 45 | .264/.329/.397 | .133 | .289 | 3 | 1 | 13% | 8% | 108 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Corban Joseph 2021 · MLB |
32 | 54→58 | 47→50 | 48→45 | 49 | .265/.313/.410 | .145 | .289 | 14 | 5 | 14% | 6% | 104 | +2.0 | .243/.296/.368 | .125 | .280 | 12 | 7 | 17% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .255/.311/.359 | .104 | .286 | 9 | 0 | 14% | 7% | 86 | +0.2 |
|
●Melky Cabrera 2017 · MLB |
32 | 58→68 | 46→50 | 49→50 | 52 | .282/.331/.424 | .142 | .302 | 13 | 4 | 12% | 7% | 115 | +2.7 | .281/.325/.419 | .138 | .303 | 13 | 3 | 12% | 6% | 111 | +2.5 | .283/.323/.412 | .129 | .304 | 13 | 2 | 12% | 5% | 104 | +1.6 |
|
✕Danny Bautista 2004 · MLB |
32 | 57→59 | 46→50 | 48→45 | 50 | .279/.331/.417 | .138 | .310 | 13 | 9 | 15% | 7% | 113 | +2.6 | .274/.325/.399 | .125 | .301 | 12 | 8 | 13% | 7% | 105 | +2.1 | .284/.332/.398 | .114 | .307 | 11 | 6 | 11% | 6% | 105 | +2.0 |
|
✕James Loney 2016 · MLB |
32 | 59→64 | 42→50 | 42→45 | 51 | .287/.334/.393 | .107 | .311 | 10 | 4 | 12% | 7% | 108 | +2.3 | .266/.313/.372 | .106 | .287 | 10 | 3 | 11% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .277/.314/.385 | .108 | .293 | 11 | 0 | 10% | 4% | 92 | +1.0 |
|
✕Tony Kemp 2023 · MLB |
31 | 52→60 | 43→45 | 52→55 | 58 | .250/.334/.365 | .115 | .274 | 10 | 12 | 13% | 10% | 102 | +1.8 | .229/.308/.338 | .109 | .248 | 10 | 15 | 12% | 9% | 84 | +0.6 | .215/.297/.312 | .098 | .229 | 10 | 18 | 11% | 9% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Matt Hague 2018 · MLB |
32 | 55→64 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 49 | .266/.322/.374 | .107 | .301 | 10 | 7 | 15% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .235/.301/.332 | .097 | .278 | 9 | 8 | 18% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .214/.308/.270 | .056 | .260 | 2 | 0 | 17% | 12% | 66 | -0.2 |
|
●Marco Scutaro 2007 · MLB |
31 | 53→62 | 45 | 50→45 | 54 | .257/.318/.390 | .133 | .284 | 10 | 6 | 14% | 8% | 100 | +1.7 | .261/.338/.375 | .114 | .287 | 10 | 8 | 12% | 10% | 105 | +2.1 | .272/.348/.388 | .116 | .292 | 10 | 8 | 10% | 10% | 109 | +2.4 |
|
✕Skip Schumaker 2011 · MLB |
31 | 60→64 | 40→45 | 45→50 | 55 | .285/.346/.380 | .095 | .315 | 7 | 6 | 12% | 8% | 109 | +2.4 | .268/.329/.354 | .086 | .309 | 5 | 4 | 14% | 8% | 95 | +1.4 | .267/.329/.341 | .074 | .314 | 3 | 2 | 15% | 8% | 88 | +0.5 |
|
✕Clint Robinson 2017 · MLB |
32 | 50→58 | 47→55 | 47→40 | 53 | .247/.321/.383 | .136 | .284 | 15 | 2 | 19% | 9% | 100 | +1.7 | .219/.279/.360 | .141 | .274 | 17 | 3 | 26% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .198/.252/.341 | .143 | .253 | 18 | 0 | 29% | 6% | 58 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ricardo Nanita 2013 · AAA |
32 | 55→60 | 45 | 44→50 | 45 | .269/.306/.390 | .121 | .293 | 13 | 9 | 14% | 4% | 95 | +1.4 | .253/.292/.370 | .117 | .287 | 13 | 8 | 16% | 5% | 84 | +0.6 | .260/.297/.370 | .110 | .297 | 12 | 4 | 16% | 4% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Terrence Long 2006 · MLB |
30 | 55→58 | 44→50 | 45 | 50 | .268/.314/.389 | .121 | .295 | 10 | 6 | 13% | 6% | 98 | +1.6 | .246/.291/.367 | .121 | .290 | 12 | 5 | 19% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .225/.263/.340 | .116 | .273 | 13 | 0 | 23% | 5% | 60 | -0.6 |
|
✕Gerardo Parra 2019 · MLB |
32 | 54→62 | 43→50 | 44→55 | 46 | .264/.309/.377 | .112 | .306 | 11 | 10 | 17% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .244/.307/.366 | .122 | .290 | 13 | 12 | 20% | 7% | 90 | +1.0 | .222/.292/.345 | .123 | .269 | 13 | 12 | 22% | 8% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Joe Inglett 2010 · MLB |
32 | 57→64 | 41→45 | 50 | 50 | .269/.325/.378 | .108 | .309 | 6 | 12 | 15% | 7% | 99 | +1.7 | .249/.315/.365 | .116 | .310 | 7 | 11 | 20% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .259/.338/.419 | .159 | .335 | 3 | 4 | 21% | 9% | 110 | +0.6 |
|
✕Jose Espinoza 2006 · AAA |
32 | 54→57 | 44→45 | 49→45 | 48 | .261/.316/.379 | .118 | .312 | 12 | 9 | 20% | 7% | 97 | +1.5 | .270/.333/.384 | .114 | .313 | 10 | 7 | 16% | 8% | 105 | +2.1 | .276/.336/.377 | .101 | .323 | 8 | 6 | 16% | 7% | 100 | +1.2 |
|
✕Sean Casey 2006 · MLB |
32 | 62→64 | 48→50 | 50→40 | 56 | .306/.365/.454 | .148 | .311 | 15 | 4 | 8% | 8% | 137 | +4.3 | .291/.351/.410 | .119 | .310 | 10 | 3 | 9% | 8% | 119 | +3.1 | .290/.352/.389 | .099 | .315 | 6 | 2 | 10% | 8% | 101 | +1.2 |
|
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB |
32 | 54 | 44→50 | 49→40 | 47 | .262/.314/.378 | .116 | .296 | 12 | 5 | 16% | 6% | 96 | +1.5 | .234/.305/.355 | .121 | .292 | 12 | 7 | 23% | 8% | 87 | +0.8 | .163/.242/.193 | .030 | .240 | 0 | 0 | 29% | 9% | 2 | -0.9 |
|
✕Wilfredo Arano 2007 · AAA |
31 | 55 | 44→45 | 50→45 | 52 | .267/.324/.387 | .120 | .279 | 12 | 7 | 10% | 7% | 102 | +1.9 | .252/.305/.336 | .084 | .265 | 7 | 6 | 8% | 6% | 81 | +0.4 | .284/.332/.349 | .065 | .298 | 6 | 2 | 7% | 5% | 95 | +0.5 |
|
✕Dioner Navarro 2015 · MLB |
31 | 54→61 | 47→50 | 46→45 | 50 | .270/.320/.401 | .131 | .293 | 16 | 4 | 14% | 7% | 104 | +2.0 | .240/.297/.367 | .127 | .274 | 15 | 4 | 18% | 7% | 86 | +0.8 | .208/.275/.313 | .105 | .245 | 12 | 1 | 20% | 8% | 60 | -0.4 |
|
✕Daniel Nava 2015 · MLB |
32 | 55→61 | 44→50 | 42→45 | 53 | .266/.349/.386 | .120 | .319 | 11 | 5 | 19% | 9% | 113 | +2.6 | .251/.333/.349 | .098 | .310 | 9 | 6 | 20% | 9% | 97 | +1.5 | .249/.341/.329 | .080 | .310 | 6 | 4 | 20% | 10% | 93 | +0.5 |
|
✕Brandon Guyer 2018 · MLB |
32 | 51→56 | 46→55 | 48→55 | 48 | .250/.346/.385 | .135 | .292 | 13 | 9 | 18% | 7% | 113 | +2.6 | .223/.314/.368 | .145 | .263 | 15 | 6 | 21% | 7% | 95 | +1.4 | .186/.282/.340 | .155 | .205 | 19 | 2 | 20% | 6% | 72 | -0.1 |