Nathan Lukes
RF Toronto Blue Jays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | AAATOR | 231 | .333/.403/.469 | 7 | 4 | 105 | — | .293/.342/.391 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLBTOR | 91 | .303/.384/.447 | 1 | 1 | 122 | 0.0 | |
| 2025 | 31 | MLBTOR | 438 | .255/.325/.407 | 12 | 2 | 100 | 0.6 | |
| 2026 | 32 | MLBTOR | 450 | .277/.330/.387 | 10 | 1 | 100 | 0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ | 33 | MLBTOR | 301 | .263/.324/.387 | 7 | 2 | 101 | 0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 34 | MLBTOR | 203 | .252/.311/.364 | 4 | 0 | 91 | -0.2 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 94 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 237 | 267 | 503 | 56 | 240 | 15 | 3 | 226 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 393 | 342 | 103 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 60 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 301 | 379 | 453 | 832 | 152 | 349 | 15 | 9 | 364 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 359 | 97 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 71 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 270 | 335 | 365 | 700 | 95 | 323 | 18 | 8 | 310 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 22 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 400 | 455 | 450 | 905 | 50 | 500 | 18 | 9 | 410 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 484 | 435 | 121 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 93 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 278 | 335 | 400 | 735 | 122 | 336 | 19 | 6 | 322 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 295 | 260 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 219 | 298 | 319 | 617 | 100 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 277 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 326 | 294 | 89 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 303 | 357 | 456 | 813 | 153 | 335 | 13 | 6 | 354 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 484 | 428 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 89 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 285 | 365 | 425 | 790 | 140 | 336 | 18 | 10 | 354 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 31 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 300 | 308 | 608 | 115 | 278 | 29 | 13 | 271 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 222 | 202 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 366 | 423 | 530 | 953 | 163 | 401 | 11 | 8 | 422 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 91 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 384 | 447 | 831 | 145 | 319 | 10 | 11 | 351 | 122 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 231 | 207 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 333 | 403 | 469 | 871 | 135 | 378 | 16 | 10 | 390 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 255 | 325 | 407 | 732 | 152 | 273 | 14 | 9 | 320 | 100 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 408 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 330 | 387 | 717 | 110 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 316 | 100 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1010 | 898 | 240 | 39 | 5 | 23 | 77 | 142 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 267 | 331 | 399 | 730 | 131 | 292 | 14 | 8 | 320 | 103 | +3 | -1 | +2 | -16 | +22 | 1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 94 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 165 | 183 | 209 | 392 | 44 | 206 | 21 | 2 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 393 | 353 | 91 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 79 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 258 | 319 | 374 | 693 | 116 | 309 | 20 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 370 | 90 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 87 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 243 | 289 | 319 | 608 | 76 | 297 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 350 | 409 | 400 | 809 | 50 | 434 | 27 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 484 | 445 | 116 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 107 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 303 | 369 | 672 | 108 | 315 | 22 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 295 | 267 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 202 | 263 | 285 | 548 | 82 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 326 | 301 | 86 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 326 | 409 | 735 | 123 | 313 | 15 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 484 | 446 | 116 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 105 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 260 | 315 | 368 | 683 | 108 | 318 | 22 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 31 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 300 | 308 | 608 | 115 | 278 | 29 | 13 | 269 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 222 | 208 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 322 | 365 | 452 | 817 | 130 | 364 | 14 | 5 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 91 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 384 | 447 | 831 | 145 | 319 | 10 | 11 | 349 | 122 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 231 | 215 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 293 | 342 | 391 | 733 | 98 | 351 | 19 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 390 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 254 | 320 | 405 | 725 | 151 | 273 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 100 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 408 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 330 | 387 | 717 | 110 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 315 | 100 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 444 | 106 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 99 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 239 | 293 | 340 | 633 | 101 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 487 | 432 | 122 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 74 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 282 | 351 | 414 | 766 | 132 | 326 | 15 | 8 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 390 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 246 | 293 | 321 | 614 | 74 | 312 | 22 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 426 | 379 | 105 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 75 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 277 | 341 | 369 | 711 | 92 | 332 | 18 | 8 | 315 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 484 | 445 | 116 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 107 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 303 | 369 | 672 | 108 | 327 | 22 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 484 | 435 | 121 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 93 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 278 | 335 | 400 | 735 | 122 | 336 | 19 | 6 | 322 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 295 | 267 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 202 | 263 | 285 | 548 | 82 | 252 | 22 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 295 | 260 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 219 | 298 | 319 | 617 | 100 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 277 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 326 | 301 | 86 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 326 | 409 | 735 | 123 | 325 | 15 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 326 | 294 | 89 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 303 | 357 | 456 | 813 | 153 | 335 | 13 | 6 | 354 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 484 | 446 | 116 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 105 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 260 | 315 | 368 | 683 | 108 | 322 | 22 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 484 | 428 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 89 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 285 | 365 | 425 | 790 | 140 | 336 | 18 | 10 | 354 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 234 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 308 | 357 | 436 | 793 | 128 | 356 | 16 | 6 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 253 | 228 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 346 | 409 | 504 | 913 | 158 | 389 | 13 | 8 | 404 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 291 | 86 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 296 | 353 | 405 | 759 | 110 | 339 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 283 | 92 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 325 | 397 | 463 | 860 | 138 | 361 | 14 | 10 | 379 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 390 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 254 | 320 | 405 | 725 | 151 | 271 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 100 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 255 | 325 | 407 | 732 | 152 | 273 | 14 | 9 | 320 | 100 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 408 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 330 | 387 | 717 | 110 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 315 | 100 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 408 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 330 | 387 | 717 | 110 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 316 | 100 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 450 | 106 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 99 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 236 | 293 | 336 | 628 | 100 | 289 | 20 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 397 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 242 | 293 | 315 | 608 | 73 | 304 | 22 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 484 | 454 | 116 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 107 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 256 | 303 | 361 | 664 | 106 | 315 | 22 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 295 | 271 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 199 | 263 | 280 | 543 | 81 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 326 | 305 | 86 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 282 | 326 | 403 | 729 | 121 | 313 | 15 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 484 | 445 | 116 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 105 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 261 | 315 | 369 | 684 | 108 | 318 | 22 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 233 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 309 | 357 | 438 | 795 | 129 | 353 | 16 | 6 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 293 | 86 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 294 | 353 | 403 | 756 | 109 | 342 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 397 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 249 | 320 | 398 | 718 | 149 | 273 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 415 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 330 | 381 | 710 | 108 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 315 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 293 | 86 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 294 | 353 | 403 | 756 | 109 | 342 | 16 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 438 | 397 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 249 | 320 | 398 | 718 | 149 | 273 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 32 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 450 | 415 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 330 | 381 | 710 | 108 | 306 | 14 | 6 | 315 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 404 | 368 | 96 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 262 | 323 | 386 | 709 | 124 | 291 | 15 | 7 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +4 | -4 | +9 | 0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 301 | 274 | 72 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 324 | 387 | 711 | 125 | 292 | 15 | 7 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -3 | +7 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 34 | MLB MLE | TOR | 82% | 247 | 226 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 311 | 363 | 674 | 112 | 282 | 16 | 7 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB CTX | TOR | 82% | 203 | 185 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 311 | 364 | 676 | 113 | 283 | 16 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1213 | 1083 | 287 | 46 | 6 | 27 | 91 | 174 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 265 | 328 | 393 | 722 | 128 | 291 | 14 | 8 | 317 | 89 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -18 | +26 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 153 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 93 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 264 | 328 | 390 | 717 | 126 | 290 | 14 | 8 | 317 | 89 | +0 | -1 | +0 | -10 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4513 | 4116 | 1073 | 195 | 27 | 69 | 272 | 819 | 48 | 73 | 40 | 261 | 314 | 371 | 685 | 111 | 307 | 18 | 6 | 299 | 89 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -22 | +34 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 155 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 118 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 261 | 315 | 373 | 687 | 111 | 308 | 18 | 6 | 299 | 89 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -9 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 231 PAwOBA .380 → .324 (−56)K% 15.6% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.58% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.16% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 30.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.09% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 3.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.09% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .380 → .324; ISO .135 → .100; BABIP .378 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 222 PAwOBA .409 → .354 (−55)K% 11.3% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.26% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.38% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 27.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.916 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .409 → .354; ISO .163 → .130; BABIP .401 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 484 PAwOBA .344 → .300 (−44)K% 18.4% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.39% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.07% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×0.992 | 24.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×0.992 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×0.992 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.24% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .344 → .300; ISO .140 → .112; BABIP .336 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAADurham Bulls · 326 PAwOBA .350 → .313 (−37)K% 12.6% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.58% | ÷1.029 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.44% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷0.945 | ×0.930 | ×1.034 | ×1.003 | 21.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.25% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×1.003 | 9.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.003 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.58% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.05% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .350 → .313; ISO .153 → .121; BABIP .335 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAADurham Bulls · 295 PAwOBA .274 → .240 (−34)K% 19.0% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.98% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.81% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.025 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.128 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .274 → .240; ISO .100 → .084; BABIP .260 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 484 PAwOBA .317 → .287 (−30)K% 19.2% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.21% | ÷1.055 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.40% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.27% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 23.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.48% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 7.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.010 | ×0.880 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .317 → .287; ISO .122 → .109; BABIP .336 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 404 PAwOBA .305 → .270 (−36)K% 17.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.57% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.67% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.69% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.986 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.146 | ×0.880 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.85% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .305 → .270; ISO .095 → .083; BABIP .323 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 22 PAwOBA .399 → .321 (−78)K% 18.2% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.017 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.75% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 37.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.007 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.998 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .321; ISO .050 → .044; BABIP .500 → .434. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).