Nathan Lukes — OGILVIE

Nathan LukesRF Toronto Blue Jays

Age 32 L/R 5'11" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 1.843 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION219 act + 197 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 99108vR 112

AVG/OBP/SLG.277 / .344 / .418

PA197

HR5

K%16

BB%8

BABIP310

ISO141

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

904.3%

xwOBA

540.313

POWER40

Barrel%

143.6

Avg EV

3187.7

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE45

Chase%

8724.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 570 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

517

—

wRC+

107

▶R

wOBA

313

325

▶R

ISO

119

148

▶▶R

BABIP

323

280

◀L

22.6%

11.8%

▶▶R

BB%

11.3%

7.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.843 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$1M		$6M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	A	2 teams	—	487	444	106	19	8	3	28	98	6	15	9	239	293	338	631	99	297	20	6	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	2 teams	—	487	432	122	23	8	6	40	74	6	15	9	282	351	414	766	132	326	15	8	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	2 teams	—	426	391	94	14	4	3	22	98	3	7	10	240	286	320	606	79	307	23	5	262	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	2 teams	—	426	379	105	16	5	3	34	75	3	7	10	277	341	369	711	92	332	18	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	484	446	119	25	3	6	20	108	6	9	4	267	307	377	684	110	334	22	4	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	484	435	121	29	3	6	31	93	6	9	4	278	335	400	735	122	336	19	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	295	268	53	7	3	3	18	65	3	7	3	198	256	280	536	82	245	22	6	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	295	260	57	8	3	4	26	56	3	7	3	219	298	319	617	100	260	19	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	326	301	87	24	1	3	14	47	4	2	2	289	329	405	734	116	328	14	4	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	326	294	89	31	1	4	21	41	4	2	2	303	357	456	813	153	335	13	6	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	446	123	22	1	10	29	103	7	20	3	276	330	397	727	121	337	21	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	428	122	25	1	11	47	89	7	20	3	285	365	425	790	140	336	18	10	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	253	234	73	14	2	5	15	41	3	3	1	312	361	453	814	141	360	16	6	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	253	228	79	17	2	5	21	34	3	3	1	346	409	504	913	158	389	13	8	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	2 teams	—	322	291	91	11	2	7	24	52	2	5	2	313	369	436	806	124	357	16	7	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	2 teams	—	322	283	92	11	2	8	32	45	2	5	2	325	397	463	860	138	361	14	10	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	438	388	98	19	2	12	38	60	2	2	4	253	322	405	727	152	270	14	9	312	97	-2	-1	+2	-5	+12	0.7
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	438	388	99	19	2	12	38	60	2	2	4	255	325	407	732	152	273	14	9	320	103	+2	-1	+2	-5	+12	1.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	TOR	—	219	198	57	8	0	5	12	32	5	0	1	288	344	404	748	116	321	15	5	328	109	+2	-0	+1	-2	+6	0.7
YTD	32	MLB	TOR	—	219	198	57	8	0	5	12	32	5	0	1	288	344	404	748	116	321	15	5	331	112	+3	-0	+1	-2	+6	0.7
ROS	32	MLB	TOR	100%	197	177	49	8	1	5	15	31	3	1	1	277	344	418	762	141	304	16	8	329	110	+2	-0	+3	-2	+6	0.8
ROS	32	MLB	TOR	100%	197	177	49	8	1	5	15	31	3	1	1	277	344	418	762	141	305	16	8	321	104	+1	-0	+3	-2	+6	0.7
FULL	32	MLB	TOR	—	416	375	106	16	1	10	27	63	8	1	2	283	344	411	755	128	316	15	6	324	106	+3	-1	+4	-4	+12	1.4
TOT	32	MLB	TOR	—	416	375	106	16	1	10	27	63	8	1	2	283	344	411	755	128	316	15	6	328	109	+4	-1	+4	-4	+12	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	TOR	98%	349	316	84	14	1	8	26	56	4	2	1	266	329	392	722	127	299	16	7	321	104	+2	+0	+1	-4	+10	0.9
2027	33	MLB	TOR	98%	342	310	81	13	1	7	25	55	4	2	1	261	324	377	702	116	300	16	7	313	98	-1	+0	+1	-4	+10	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1099	977	257	45	7	25	92	164	9	6	6	263	332	400	732	137	291	15	8	319	102	+3	-1	+5	-17	+31	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	152	27	4	15	54	97	5	4	4	263	331	401	733	138	290	15	8	319	102	+2	-1	+3	-10	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	4061	3702	977	177	28	65	249	759	43	73	40	264	318	380	697	116	313	19	6	302	89	-49	-1	+5	-44	+115	2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	155	28	4	10	40	121	7	12	6	261	316	373	689	111	310	19	6	302	89	-8	+0	+1	-7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	94	90	19	2	0	1	3	14	0	1	1	211	237	267	503	56	240	15	3	226	31	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2016	22	A	Lake County Captains	—	393	342	103	21	8	5	37	60	6	14	8	301	379	453	832	152	349	15	9	364	137	+16	-0	—	—	+11	2.8
2017	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	404	359	97	15	5	3	32	71	3	6	8	270	335	365	700	95	323	18	8	310	95	-2	-2	—	—	+11	0.7
2017	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	22	20	8	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	2	400	455	450	905	50	500	18	9	410	172	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	484	435	121	29	3	6	31	93	6	9	4	278	335	400	735	122	336	19	6	322	104	+2	+0	—	—	+14	1.7
2019	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	295	260	57	8	3	4	26	56	3	7	3	219	298	319	617	100	260	19	9	277	70	-10	+0	—	—	+8	-0.1
2021	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	326	294	89	31	1	4	21	41	4	2	2	303	357	456	813	153	335	13	6	354	129	+11	-0	—	—	+9	2.0
2022	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	428	122	25	1	11	47	89	7	20	3	285	365	425	790	140	336	18	10	354	129	+16	+3	—	—	+14	3.3
2023	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	31	26	5	1	1	0	4	9	0	0	0	192	300	308	608	115	278	29	13	271	66	-1	+0	+0	-3	+1	-0.3
2023	29	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	222	202	74	16	1	5	17	25	3	3	1	366	423	530	953	163	401	11	8	422	181	+20	+0	—	—	+6	2.7
2024	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	91	76	23	4	2	1	10	9	0	1	0	303	384	447	831	145	319	10	11	351	126	+3	+0	-1	-3	+3	0.1
2024	30	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	231	207	69	7	0	7	22	36	2	4	2	333	403	469	871	135	378	16	10	390	157	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.2
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	438	388	99	19	2	12	38	60	2	2	4	255	325	407	732	152	273	14	9	320	103	+2	-1	+2	-5	+12	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	560	490	127	24	5	13	52	78	2	3	4	259	333	408	741	149	281	14	9	323	105	+3	-1	+1	-11	+16	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Churchlast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,128 PA	7	2,128	56	21	264	336	431	-20	+10	9.0	9.0
	/162	664	17	7	264	336	431	-6.1	+3.1	2.8	pk7: 9
#2Fernando Tatislast yr '10 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,009 PA	8	2,009	60	13	252	334	421	-18	-2	6.7	6.9
	/162	664	20	4	252	334	421	-5.9	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 7
#3Chris Denorfialast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,339 PA	8	2,339	40	55	272	330	392	-20	+2	6.0	6.4
	/162	664	11	16	272	330	392	-5.5	+0.5	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Robert Ficklast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,585 PA	8	2,585	63	4	258	327	400	-24	-19	4.0	4.6
	/162	664	16	1	258	327	400	-6.3	-4.8	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Shane Spencerlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,568 PA	5	1,568	41	13	261	325	410	-12	-6	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	17	6	261	325	410	-5.3	-2.7	1.5	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,506	35	9	266	329	401	-16	+5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	15	4	266	329	401	-7.1	+2.2	1.6	pk7: 4
#6Wil Corderolast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,639 PA	6	1,639	43	5	262	325	416	-17	-13	3.1	3.1
	/162	664	17	2	262	325	416	-7.0	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Lukes (OGILVIE)	32	60	40	50	45	283/344/411	128	316	10	1	15%	6%	109	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Corban Joseph 2021 · MLB	32	53→57	47→50	48→45	48	261/309/403	142	287	13	5	15%	6%	100	+1.7	243/298/367	124	283	12	8	18%	7%	86	+0.8	260/319/364	103	294	9	0	14%	8%	91	+0.2
✕Danny Bautista 2004 · MLB	32	56→59	46→50	48→45	50	277/330/413	136	310	13	9	15%	7%	111	+2.5	272/324/398	126	298	12	8	13%	7%	105	+2.1	284/332/398	114	307	11	6	11%	6%	105	+2.0
✕Jose Espinoza 2006 · AAA	32	54→57	44→45	49→45	48	264/319/380	117	315	12	9	20%	7%	98	+1.6	270/333/383	113	312	10	7	16%	8%	105	+2.1	276/336/377	101	323	8	6	16%	7%	100	+1.2
●David DeJesus 2012 · MLB	32	55→62	46→50	43→45	54	269/342/410	141	303	12	6	15%	9%	116	+2.8	253/335/398	145	292	11	7	16%	10%	110	+2.4	250/337/394	144	289	11	6	16%	10%	107	+1.6
●Melky Cabrera 2017 · MLB	32	58→68	46→50	50	52	282/330/424	142	302	13	4	12%	7%	115	+2.7	284/327/423	139	307	14	4	12%	6%	112	+2.6	286/326/419	133	307	13	2	12%	5%	107	+1.8
✕Jon Jay 2017 · MLB	32	58→64	39→45	45→50	47	272/335/364	93	331	5	5	19%	6%	101	+1.8	271/336/356	85	331	4	6	18%	7%	98	+1.6	270/336/341	70	331	2	5	17%	6%	92	+0.8
●Marco Scutaro 2008 · MLB	32	53→63	44→45	48→45	58	256/330/378	122	279	11	6	13%	10%	102	+1.9	265/343/375	110	289	10	8	11%	10%	107	+2.2	298/352/393	95	314	6	5	7%	7%	112	+2.4
✕Dioner Navarro 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	48→50	47→45	51	262/317/401	139	285	17	4	15%	8%	103	+1.9	227/288/357	130	268	14	5	20%	7%	79	+0.3	198/263/295	97	242	9	1	22%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Ricardo Nanita 2013 · AAA	32	54→60	44→45	44→50	45	265/303/381	116	290	13	9	14%	4%	92	+1.2	255/293/372	117	291	13	7	17%	4%	85	+0.7	264/300/376	112	302	12	4	17%	4%	87	+0.4
✕Mike Fontenot 2012 · MLB	32	51→59	44→50	47→45	51	246/312/376	130	289	10	8	18%	8%	95	+1.4	237/293/334	97	295	6	7	21%	7%	76	+0.0	234/286/307	74	297	3	5	21%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Matt Duffy 2023 · MLB	32	53→63	41→45	49→50	48	253/316/343	90	311	9	8	21%	7%	88	+0.9	235/293/324	89	292	8	6	21%	7%	73	-0.1	227/282/292	65	285	6	3	21%	6%	57	-0.4
●Jesse Castillo 2015 · AAA	32	55→61	42→45	50	49	264/318/367	102	309	10	13	18%	7%	94	+1.3	266/325/383	117	316	12	14	19%	8%	102	+1.8	272/333/394	122	321	13	13	18%	8%	107	+1.8
●Francisco Mendez 2010 · AAA	32	56→61	47→50	47→40	52	273/342/407	134	328	15	3	21%	9%	115	+2.8	257/339/393	136	310	15	3	21%	11%	111	+2.5	250/340/383	133	301	15	0	21%	11%	108	+1.3
✕Matt Hague 2017 · MLB	31	57→65	45→50	46→45	49	280/337/406	126	321	12	6	17%	7%	113	+2.6	243/304/342	99	281	9	7	16%	8%	82	+0.5	239/304/325	86	276	8	5	16%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Clint Robinson 2017 · MLB	32	50→60	47→55	46→40	53	248/322/383	135	283	15	3	18%	9%	101	+1.8	219/276/362	143	274	18	4	26%	7%	76	+0.1	196/248/338	142	248	19	0	29%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Joe Thurston 2012 · MLB	32	49→58	46→45	47→50	47	244/303/379	135	280	13	10	18%	6%	92	+1.2	236/300/353	117	276	11	11	18%	7%	84	+0.6	242/308/336	93	283	8	10	16%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→55	44→50	49→40	48	258/313/377	119	291	12	5	16%	6%	95	+1.4	231/303/351	120	292	12	7	24%	9%	85	+0.7	167/245/198	31	246	0	0	29%	9%	4	-0.9
✕Oscar Ramirez 2011 · AAA	32	53→60	44→45	43→45	49	256/326/377	121	309	12	5	20%	8%	101	+1.8	253/314/372	119	318	12	5	23%	7%	95	+1.4	259/319/375	115	335	11	1	24%	7%	94	+0.4
✕Skip Schumaker 2011 · MLB	31	59→64	39→45	44→50	55	281/342/371	90	311	6	6	12%	8%	105	+2.1	271/331/356	85	314	5	4	14%	8%	96	+1.5	273/335/349	76	320	3	2	15%	8%	92	+0.7
✕James Loney 2015 · MLB	31	57→64	43→50	45	51	278/327/389	111	303	11	4	13%	7%	104	+2.0	270/317/373	103	292	10	4	11%	6%	95	+1.4	273/313/369	97	290	9	1	10%	5%	86	+0.6